UpHere
Feelin' it
- Jun 16, 2009
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they're fine - the vid was good up till the ending, still too fresh... what could have been though
Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Post Free Agent Frenzy, Will JJ Show His Pimp Hand Again to Upgrade the Defense?
- Thread starter Bryanbryoil
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Fourier
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I grew up an absolute diehard Habs fan but it is hard to take some of the claims that their fan base makes on the value of their players, especially their defensemen.
Draisaitl, the Oilers clear 2nd best player, was a complete non-factor in the series and their top 6 LW was out most of the series. Injuries are a part of it so no excuses Florida won fair and square but I think those two would have made a difference. It's sort of like what Florida went through against Vegas the prior year.
FlameChampion
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- Jul 13, 2011
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I am hoping with our improved forward depth core that we can cut down the minutes during the regular season. Always feels like our top guys are entering the playoffs banged up. Then they get further banged up or new injuries during the playoffs. Hopefully with improved depth, we can also give time off to players to heal up properly. This team really needs a better start to the year. Often, they are alway playing from behind.
TopShelfGloveSide
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- Dec 10, 2018
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“Broberg and a 1st for Jake Allen. Take it or leave it.”
It's been three years in a row now where Leon specifically is beat to shit no later than mid-second round. Every year he torches the first 10 or so playoff games before getting a high ankle sprain (this one didn't stop him from killing the Flames at least), slashed wrist, or broken ribs. In each case it was more a result of random event than being burnt out, so I'm not really sure how it could be prepared for, but frustrating nonetheless.
I do agree, however that they need to focus on getting their minutes down starting October 9. Key to this will be a good start to the season so that we don't have to panic play McDavid and Drai 25 mins+ a game to try and not have the season slip away. Another key to this - our depth players have started a tradition where they don't seem to show up until around January. This should be less of an issue now in theory, but Knoblauch has to keep them accountable while maintaining their minutes rather than just pull the shoot and play McDavid 26+ minutes at the first sign of depth not holding up their end of the bargain.
bellagiobob
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- Jul 27, 2006
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Bryanbryoil
Pray For Ukraine
- Sep 13, 2004
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Especially for it to be him since he's always seemed like a class act.
- Dec 9, 2004
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There's a reason guys like Crosby mail it once they know the team made the playoffs. They save their energy on the big price rather than the personal stats.
Mcdavid and Drai should already be resting or have their minutes reduced drastically 2 weeks before the playoffs.
frag2
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- Mar 8, 2006
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JeffSkinner53
Registered User
They're even wearing matching outfits. They're besties. That's cute.
Bored at work so I figured I would do a quick analysis of what to expect from replacing a guy like Warren Foegele with Jeff Skinner this year.
I took the totals of their past 3 years, then broke it down to their per game numbers (which is pretty cool because you can see that Skinner has basically double the production that Foegele has) and then pro-rated for an 82 game season.
The numbers suggest that he will put up 32 goals and 67 points if healthy.
Having said that Foegele plays some penalty kill and Skinner plays some powerplay. Looking only at even strength production, Skinner is still the better player by a wide margin despite closing the gap in TOI. Skinner plays closer to 14 EV TOI/GP while Foegele is closer to 12:05 EV TOI/GP. This year Foegele was 12:34 EV TOI/GP.
What this tells me that if you replace Foegele with Skinner you would typically see almost 10 more goals and 10 more assists or 20 points more. If you factor in the TOI (13:57 vs 12:34) Skinner would probably see a 10% reduction in those numbers - so 9 goals and 9 assists being provided the same TOI.
Having said all that, Skinner did not get to play with a McDavid or Draisaitl for a full season, while Foegele saw plenty of time in that top 6. The oilers ranked 3rd in the league with 193 goals for 5v5 last year while Buffalo was 12th with 174. It's not unrealistic to think that given that the Oiler score 10% more than Buffalo does at even strength as a team, that Skinner would also score at 10% higher clip.
So, all in all, I think it's a pretty realistic bet that Skinner is a 30G/60P winger next year if given the same deployment as Foegele. If he gets even more minutes, I would expect to see those numbers be even higher. It also worth nothing that Foegele had a career year last year (likely to regress) while Skinner had a down year (and likely to rebound).
I took the totals of their past 3 years, then broke it down to their per game numbers (which is pretty cool because you can see that Skinner has basically double the production that Foegele has) and then pro-rated for an 82 game season.
The numbers suggest that he will put up 32 goals and 67 points if healthy.
Having said that Foegele plays some penalty kill and Skinner plays some powerplay. Looking only at even strength production, Skinner is still the better player by a wide margin despite closing the gap in TOI. Skinner plays closer to 14 EV TOI/GP while Foegele is closer to 12:05 EV TOI/GP. This year Foegele was 12:34 EV TOI/GP.
What this tells me that if you replace Foegele with Skinner you would typically see almost 10 more goals and 10 more assists or 20 points more. If you factor in the TOI (13:57 vs 12:34) Skinner would probably see a 10% reduction in those numbers - so 9 goals and 9 assists being provided the same TOI.
Having said all that, Skinner did not get to play with a McDavid or Draisaitl for a full season, while Foegele saw plenty of time in that top 6. The oilers ranked 3rd in the league with 193 goals for 5v5 last year while Buffalo was 12th with 174. It's not unrealistic to think that given that the Oiler score 10% more than Buffalo does at even strength as a team, that Skinner would also score at 10% higher clip.
So, all in all, I think it's a pretty realistic bet that Skinner is a 30G/60P winger next year if given the same deployment as Foegele. If he gets even more minutes, I would expect to see those numbers be even higher. It also worth nothing that Foegele had a career year last year (likely to regress) while Skinner had a down year (and likely to rebound).
bobbythebrain
Registered User
- Jul 30, 2016
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Maybe that's McDavid's bachelor 'party'...everyone back to training?
Lunges up the aisle
Oilslick941611
Registered User
Old Boys Club
Anita Max Wynn
- Nov 3, 2013
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Oilslick941611
Registered User
his post history suggests he doesn't like the Oilers, despite the time spent here.
Pretty much this, wjat the playoffs amd more so the stanley cup comes down to in the end is which team can dtay the healthiest.
Florida was injured amd bamged up last season and ended up getting worked over in the finals. We will be back...
Fourier
Registered User
I'm also reasonably certain that Adam Henrique will be able to replace whatever offence Ryan McLeod had provided to this team. McLeod had a respectable 27 EVP this year, while Henrique would smash that with 39 EVP based on his last year average.
In the 22 regular season games Henrique played for us, he had 9 EVP points as was +6 in 13:21 EV TOI/GP. If you pro-rate that to an entire season he would have 34 EVP playing a whole minute more than what McLeod had. In the playoffs Henrique only averaged 12:45 EV TOI/GP. He had 7 EVP in 17 games which is a 34 pace over the course of a regular season, which is pretty consistent.
Meanwhile, McLeod had 4 EVP in 24GP for a 13-point pace. So, he's already he won't be any worse than McLeod and was a better playoff performer.
It's also worth noting that Anaheim only had 127 EV goals last year to the Oilers 193. We are clearly a better offensive team, so I don't really buy the whole "Henrique's numbers with suffer in a lesser role". He was a big part of why Anaheim scored as much as they did and if deployed differently with the Oilers (top 6) we would expect to see a significant increase in production. Obviously, that's unlikely now and will be playing a bottom 6 role much like he did in the playoffs.
It's possible that Rico comes in and give the Oilers and produce pretty similarly to what he did in Anaheim which would have him at 19 goals, 20 assists and 39 points. Keep in mind that the Oilers continue to role our top lines vs other teams top lines. Rico won't be a shutdown center playing against other teams' top line like he did in Anaheim. Sure, he will see some of the assignments McLeod had but I don't see his production dropping because of it. Instead, Henrique will likely come in against other teams' depth players. So even given a "lesser role" I don't see a massive reduction in Rico's even strength production even as he ages.
I think a 12-15 goal / 20-25 assist season seems relatively conservative.
In the 22 regular season games Henrique played for us, he had 9 EVP points as was +6 in 13:21 EV TOI/GP. If you pro-rate that to an entire season he would have 34 EVP playing a whole minute more than what McLeod had. In the playoffs Henrique only averaged 12:45 EV TOI/GP. He had 7 EVP in 17 games which is a 34 pace over the course of a regular season, which is pretty consistent.
Meanwhile, McLeod had 4 EVP in 24GP for a 13-point pace. So, he's already he won't be any worse than McLeod and was a better playoff performer.
It's also worth noting that Anaheim only had 127 EV goals last year to the Oilers 193. We are clearly a better offensive team, so I don't really buy the whole "Henrique's numbers with suffer in a lesser role". He was a big part of why Anaheim scored as much as they did and if deployed differently with the Oilers (top 6) we would expect to see a significant increase in production. Obviously, that's unlikely now and will be playing a bottom 6 role much like he did in the playoffs.
It's possible that Rico comes in and give the Oilers and produce pretty similarly to what he did in Anaheim which would have him at 19 goals, 20 assists and 39 points. Keep in mind that the Oilers continue to role our top lines vs other teams top lines. Rico won't be a shutdown center playing against other teams' top line like he did in Anaheim. Sure, he will see some of the assignments McLeod had but I don't see his production dropping because of it. Instead, Henrique will likely come in against other teams' depth players. So even given a "lesser role" I don't see a massive reduction in Rico's even strength production even as he ages.
I think a 12-15 goal / 20-25 assist season seems relatively conservative.
joestevens29
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- Apr 30, 2009
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joestevens29
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- Apr 30, 2009
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