Bored at work so I figured I would do a quick analysis of what to expect from replacing a guy like Warren Foegele with Jeff Skinner this year.
I took the totals of their past 3 years, then broke it down to their per game numbers (which is pretty cool because you can see that Skinner has basically double the production that Foegele has) and then pro-rated for an 82 game season.
The numbers suggest that he will put up 32 goals and 67 points if healthy.
Having said that Foegele plays some penalty kill and Skinner plays some powerplay. Looking only at even strength production, Skinner is still the better player by a wide margin despite closing the gap in TOI. Skinner plays closer to 14 EV TOI/GP while Foegele is closer to 12:05 EV TOI/GP. This year Foegele was 12:34 EV TOI/GP.
What this tells me that if you replace Foegele with Skinner you would typically see almost 10 more goals and 10 more assists or 20 points more. If you factor in the TOI (13:57 vs 12:34) Skinner would probably see a 10% reduction in those numbers - so 9 goals and 9 assists being provided the same TOI.
Having said all that, Skinner did not get to play with a McDavid or Draisaitl for a full season, while Foegele saw plenty of time in that top 6. The oilers ranked 3rd in the league with 193 goals for 5v5 last year while Buffalo was 12th with 174. It's not unrealistic to think that given that the Oiler score 10% more than Buffalo does at even strength as a team, that Skinner would also score at 10% higher clip.
So, all in all, I think it's a pretty realistic bet that Skinner is a 30G/60P winger next year if given the same deployment as Foegele. If he gets even more minutes, I would expect to see those numbers be even higher. It also worth nothing that Foegele had a career year last year (likely to regress) while Skinner had a down year (and likely to rebound).