Proposal: JT Miller to Carolina

[Cardiac Jerks]

To Vancouver: Brett Pesce + 2nd round pick
To Carolina: JT Miller

Canucks get a very good RD at 4m for 2 seasons. He'd also have great value at the 2024 deadline if he doesn't show interest in re-signing.

Canes don’t have the depth on rd to do this. Would be a major hit to the d corps.

 

[Flair Hay]

If that's the ask we'll just talk with Chicago about the price for Kane... Or sign Phil the Thrill to a one year deal.

Not gonna lie Necas and a 1st seems like a pretty fair return for a player like JT Miller. Not sure how great Drury is, I'm not familiar with him.

Agreed it makes way more sense to go after Kane either way

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Not commenting specifically on the offer in the OP, but the general notion for contending teams not willing to trade a late 1st and some prospect(s) and/or young player(s) for a 99 points versatile forward on a great cap hit seems odd to me. Does teams think they all have 5+ years cup window? On paper Toronto and Florida got weaker, Pittsburgh, Boston, Washington got older, Tampa has played a lot of hockey recently. If now isn't the time for teams like NYR/Car to go for it, should they wait till their core players gets older and past their prime before doing so? Don't forget teams like Ottawa and Detroit are making moves to get better as well so while the Pens/Caps/Bruins might fall off, new competitions are coming.
As a Nucks fan I wished we "went for it" during the Sedins prime. Keeping guys like Hodgson/Schneider might've been the safe play but we lost out on giving that core the best chance to win the cup. The window closes really quick with age and untimely injuries, surprised teams aren't more aggressive.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Not commenting specifically on the offer in the OP, but the general notion for contending teams not willing to trade a late 1st and some prospect(s) and/or young player(s) for a 99 points versatile forward on a great cap hit seems odd to me. Does teams think they all have 5+ years cup window?

What you say makes sense and while many would agree with this as a FAN, we also recognize the principles of how our team operates /have operated as a basis for forming an opinion.

For example:
1) If the Canes thought the way you are suggesting, then I doubt they let Dougie Hamilton go. Or let Trocheck go, or even Nino. etc...
2) The Canes have treated draft picks like gold under the current administration. They rarely trade one and more often than not, acquire one or a prospect. They have picked 40 players in the 4 drafts since this org. took over. My view is they have targeted high risk/high potential guys that may or may not ever make the NHL, but if they do, should be top 6 F/top 4D. So more darts to throw at the board is key to that approach working.
3) They have traded 2 first round picks in that stretch. One of them, a late 1st was traded for a young player (25 years old) with 4 years left on his deal (Skjei), they were under the gun as they lost Pesce and Hamilton to injury, AND they had a 2nd 1st round pick that year (Toronto's); so they still got Seth Jarvis in the 1st round. The 2nd one was for Kotkaniemi who they were getting a young player that they would have control over for many years.
4) Since this new administration took over, they have traded for 2 rentals and both of them cost almost nothing.
5) They often go after more distressed assets for cheap hoping for a rebound. Trocheck, Nino, DeAngelo, etc.. So far that has worked out fairly well for them. They have not gone after a high profile, high cost (asset wise) guy unless he is younger or has term.

We recognize that it can certainly still happen that they trade prime assets for an older guy with 1 year left on his deal, but it would go against the grain for how the team has operated. So while what you say makes sense, until the Canes mgmt changes their approach to roster construction, many of us will be skeptical that a deal like this would occur.

Many Canes fans also feel that the administration isn't looking to have a short window, but want to manage the team in a way where they have a longer window and are competitive every single year. I'm not sold on that. I guess we'll see in 2-3 years when the team has to re-sign a bunch of the team.

 

[Ciao]

A franchise doesn’t acquire the player, they just acquire the contract.

Miller's current contract, even with 50% retained, is a diminishing asset with limited value. One season, and it's gone.

Miller's next contract is a quandry for the Canucks and any other team. If there were obvious value in locking up Miller long-term, other franchises would be breaking down the doors to acquire his exclusive negotiating rights and do just that. I haven't seen that happening.

Nothing I've seen suggests there is too much of a market out there. The Canucks may indeed have missed the bus here.

The ask of a player, a prospect and a pick -- if they are all premium assets -- might be too much.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Not commenting specifically on the offer in the OP, but the general notion for contending teams not willing to trade a late 1st and some prospect(s) and/or young player(s) for a 99 points versatile forward on a great cap hit seems odd to me. Does teams think they all have 5+ years cup window? On paper Toronto and Florida got weaker, Pittsburgh, Boston, Washington got older, Tampa has played a lot of hockey recently. If now isn't the time for teams like NYR/Car to go for it, should they wait till their core players gets older and past their prime before doing so? Don't forget teams like Ottawa and Detroit are making moves to get better as well so while the Pens/Caps/Bruins might fall off, new competitions are coming.
As a Nucks fan I wished we "went for it" during the Sedins prime. Keeping guys like Hodgson/Schneider might've been the safe play but we lost out on giving that core the best chance to win the cup. The window closes really quick with age and untimely injuries, surprised teams aren't more aggressive.

It's not so much asking for a late 1st and some prospects, it's asking for a 1st PLUS 2 young, cheaper NHL players...one with a pretty high ceiling who already paces 50+ pts, one who has a moderate (middle-6C) NHL floor and unknown ceiling. For 1 year of a player who's only produced PPG+ twice at age 29. Would you trade Garland/Boeser, Podkolzin, and a 1st for a guy like Kadri/Reinhart (assuming they had 1 year left at the same cap hit)?

 

[racerjoe]

Canes aren’t in a position to trade for a player that will be due a massive raise. In the next 2-3 years basically the entire core outside of Svech (and kotkaniemi to a much lesser extent) will need to be re-signed and given raises.

Aho, TT, Necas, Slavin, Pesce, Skjei, Jarvis

Spending like $8mil + on Miller isn’t really an option and we’re not giving up anything close to that package in the OP for a rental.

I know that package was not a good one for Carolina, and I also know it is not the MO to go after assets like Miller. I am not trying to convince you or anyone here differently. I don't think they will trade for him.

I do think they should though. I think is now is when they should be going for it, when Aho, TT, Necas, Slavin, Pesce, Skjei, Jarvis are all on value contracts before they start to lose other parts trying to keep those guys. I think this is when good teams push and become elite to try and go for it.

Again I don't think you guys will. It has not been how your team operates.

 

[McJedi]

Late firsts have value but are limited. Necas is a 40 point forward currently with a good contract and Drury is a solid prospect. The deal is underwhelming considering Carolina isn't the only team who would be interested.

Be very prepared to be underwhelmed when JT Miller is traded. That’s what all other fan bases are telling you. The window to maximize value on trading him has passed.

That said, I have no doubt Vancouver would fetch at least a late 2023 1st + prospect for him. What Philly got for Giroux would be the baseline/floor. I was rather underwhelmed by what Florida paid to acquire Giroux. And there is even less cap space today than back then. But Miller makes less than Giroux and is arguably the better player.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

It's not so much asking for a late 1st and some prospects, it's asking for a 1st PLUS 2 young, cheaper NHL players...one with a pretty high ceiling who already paces 50+ pts, one who has a moderate (middle-6C) NHL floor and unknown ceiling. For 1 year of a player who's only produced PPG+ twice at age 29. Would you trade Garland/Boeser, Podkolzin, and a 1st for a guy like Kadri/Reinhart (assuming they had 1 year left at the same cap hit)?

Oh I'm not saying the proposal in this thread is good value for the Canes, just more so some comments that they won't even trade ONE PIECE (a late 1st or Drury) for JTM seems...odd. The Canucks are still bottom feeder (IMO) for this coming season so we absolutely wouldn't be in a position to make the trade you suggested. But for example, back in 2010/2011? For sure the Nucks SHOULD make that type of trade.

What you say makes sense and while many would agree with this as a FAN, we also recognize the principles of how our team operates /have operated as a basis for forming an opinion.

For example:
1) If the Canes thought the way you are suggesting, then I doubt they let Dougie Hamilton go. Or let Trocheck go, or even Nino. etc...
2) The Canes have treated draft picks like gold under the current administration. They rarely trade one and more often than not, acquire one or a prospect. They have picked 40 players in the 4 drafts since this org. took over. My view is they have targeted high risk/high potential guys that may or may not ever make the NHL, but if they do, should be top 6 F/top 4D. So more darts to throw at the board is key to that approach working.
3) They have traded 2 first round picks in that stretch. One of them, a late 1st was traded for a young player (25 years old) with 4 years left on his deal (Skjei), they were under the gun as they lost Pesce and Hamilton to injury, AND they had a 2nd 1st round pick that year (Toronto's); so they still got Seth Jarvis in the 1st round. The 2nd one was for Kotkaniemi who they were getting a young player that they would have control over for many years.
4) Since this new administration took over, they have traded for 2 rentals and both of them cost almost nothing.
5) They often go after more distressed assets for cheap hoping for a rebound. Trocheck, Nino, DeAngelo, etc.. So far that has worked out fairly well for them. They have not gone after a high profile, high cost (asset wise) guy unless he is younger or has term.

We recognize that it can certainly still happen that they trade prime assets for an older guy with 1 year left on his deal, but it would go against the grain for how the team has operated. So while what you say makes sense, until the Canes mgmt changes their approach to roster construction, many of us will be skeptical that a deal like this would occur.

Many Canes fans also feel that the administration isn't looking to have a short window, but want to manage the team in a way where they have a longer window and are competitive every single year. I'm not sold on that. I guess we'll see in 2-3 years when the team has to re-sign a bunch of the team.

Yea what you say is absolutely true and I am not questioning the Canes as they have been one of the best managed team in the league the last few season. I just think that, if I was in their position, I would roll the dice this season and trade a couple pieces as I see alittle bit of an opening. JTM is definitely a rental as I also can't see them commiting big dollars to him, but that's why he is different than Hamilton/Trochek, I'm sure if they can keep Hamilton/Trochek for 1 more season at $5m cap hit they for sure do it, but those guys ended up signing for 7 years. I just see the Canes as getting so much value on their contracts nowadays, it's the best time to load up for a run. In a couple years when Jarvis/Necas are getting their next contracts, and Aho/TT are off their current deals, there will be no cap space to add anymore, team might even have to cut some depth players to keep the gang together.
But I don't follow the Canes too closely so maybe they have other long term plans I'm not seeing. Again I'm not saying they definitely should go all-in, but a late first and a prospect or two for a $5m JTM seems good value, no?

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

Be very prepared to be underwhelmed when JT Miller is traded. That’s what all other fan bases are telling you. The window to maximize value on trading him has passed.

That said, I have no doubt Vancouver would fetch at least a late 2023 1st + prospect for him. What Philly got for Giroux would be the baseline/floor. I was rather underwhelmed by what Florida paid to acquire Giroux. And there is even less cap space today than back then. But Miller makes less than Giroux and is arguably the better player.

You are still working under the premise that I am a Canucks fan, I'm not. Miller is younger then Giroux, more productive, and can play the 1c position very well. Miller and Giroux aren't good comparables at all. I'd say the best market comparable currently is Kadri but Miller is still the better player. In regards to the Carolina package its just completely underwhelming. There has to be one really good piece in a Miller deal and neither necas, Drury, or a late first qualify for a really good piece. They are all just ok.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

JTM is definitely a rental as I also can't see them commiting big dollars to him, but that's why he is different than Hamilton/Trochek, I'm sure if they can keep Hamilton/Trochek for 1 more season at $5m cap hit they for sure do it, but those guys ended up signing for 7 years.

The difference is if they could have kept them for that term/$, it wouldn't have cost them a 1st and other assets to do so.

Again I'm not saying they definitely should go all-in, but a late first and a prospect or two for a $5m JTM seems good value, no?

That's what I'm trying to convey. You may think it's good value; fans (even some Canes fans) may think it's good value, I personally don't think it's an unreasonable ask (depending on the prospects), but to the Canes front office, with the way they've operated up until now, I suspect that they don't view it as good value. Once Miller walks, I suspect they view that they have now given up 3 assets, who likely will never be as good as Miller, but are going to be key to have on ELCs/cheaper deals/long term deals/used for other acquisitions when you have to re-sign or let go some of the existing guys coming up for contracts.

Like I said earlier, at some point they may decide that they need to go in that direction to get over the hump, but until I see them do it, I remain skeptical that they will.

I do think Miller will get at least a package like that at the deadline (1st and prospect or two) and maybe by that point in the season, the Canes FO goes for it. Some team will for sure.

 

[TS Quint]

Its almost like there was some sort of reason they threw all this JT Miller garbage in one thread. Its all the same. Canuck fans want a kings ransom and no one wants to pay it.

If JT Miller is so special find a way to give him $10m x 8 years rather than the rest of the mediocrity that fills that line up.

But I guess they would rather have Mikheyev than Miller.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

The difference is if they could have kept them for that term/$, it wouldn't have cost them a 1st and other assets to do so.


That's what I'm trying to convey. You may think it's good value; fans (even some Canes fans) may think it's good value, I personally don't think it's an unreasonable ask (depending on the prospects), but to the Canes front office, with the way they've operated up until now, I suspect that they don't view it as good value. Once Miller walks, I suspect they view that they have now given up 3 assets, who likely will never be as good as Miller, but are going to be key to have on ELCs/cheaper deals/long term deals/used for other acquisitions when you have to re-sign or let go some of the existing guys coming up for contracts.

Like I said earlier, at some point they may decide that they need to go in that direction to get over the hump, but until I see them do it, I remain skeptical that they will.

I do think Miller will get at least a package like that at the deadline (1st and prospect or two) and maybe by that point in the season, the Canes FO goes for it. Some team will for sure.

Fair enough, and I'm not trying to convince you otherwise. Guess we'll just wait and see what transpire. I like the Canes though and want them to do well, I honestly thought last playoff they had a good chance of going to the Eastern final (maybe even Cup final), they just need a little more scoring. Hopefully Aho and Svech can step it up next year. So jealous you guys got Jarvis by taking a 1 year cap dump, why can't my team do something smart like that just once!?

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

Its almost like there was some sort of reason they threw all this JT Miller garbage in one thread. Its all the same. Canuck fans want a kings ransom and no one wants to pay it.

If JT Miller is so special find a way to give him $10m x 8 years rather than the rest of the mediocrity that fills that line up.

But I guess they would rather have Mikheyev than Miller.

The Mikheyev signing was terrible.

 

[kanucks25]

If JT Miller is so special find a way to give him $10m x 8 years rather than the rest of the mediocrity that fills that line up.

I'm not saying that at times Canucks fans haven't asked for too much or overstated Miller's worth, but this is an argument I see quite a bit here and it's pretty ignorant.

All you have to do is look at Miller's age and where the Canucks are at right now as a team and it's simple to see why he's a better fit on a team that is currently a contender compared to a team like Vancouver that is aiming to be one in 2-3 years.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

The Tkachuk trade came together within a week. If there’s a team willing to pay the asking price, it gets done quickly.

He’s been rumored to have been available for months. Teams aren’t willing to pay the asking price because it’s quite likely too high.

some trades move faster than others. there are lots of things to consider and Im sure the rental and possible overpay to re-sign mixed with not knowing if their team is ready for that move or not can slow things down. thats why a deal like this is prob going to happen around or leading up to the Trade Deadline.

And if Miller plays like he did last year there's a good chance they will get a nice return on him.
Can't say it's not possible look at what Ben Chiarot got.

Right now alot of teams don't know how they will do and likely aren't willing to move on from their 2023 1st until they see results. I can see the market growing on him nicely as the season goes on. he's one hell of a player for 5.25m

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

some trades move faster than others. there are lots of things to consider and Im sure the rental and possible overpay to re-sign mixed with not knowing if their team is ready for that move or not can slow things down. thats why a deal like this is prob going to happen around or leading up to the Trade Deadline.

And if Miller plays like he did last year there's a good chance they will get a nice return on him.
Can't say it's not possible look at what Ben Chiarot got.

Right now alot of teams don't know how they will do and likely aren't willing to move on from their 2023 1st until they see results. I can see the market growing on him nicely as the season goes on. he's one hell of a player for 5.25m

I'd love Miller on the Leafs and would pay a lot to get him but we need to see how our goaltending holds up before adding any forward to our roster.

 

[McJedi]

You are still working under the premise that I am a Canucks fan, I'm not. Miller is younger then Giroux, more productive, and can play the 1c position very well. Miller and Giroux aren't good comparables at all. I'd say the best market comparable currently is Kadri but Miller is still the better player. In regards to the Carolina package its just completely underwhelming. There has to be one really good piece in a Miller deal and neither necas, Drury, or a late first qualify for a really good piece. They are all just ok.

There doesn’t have to be a great piece in a rental deal. Rentals don’t get to return a great piece. They don’t.

And a deal of Necas + 2023 1st + Drury is a huge overpay for a guy that won’t be on your team a year from now.

I don’t think anyone is trading for JT Miller with the intent to resign him. It will be a possibility but unlikely to be a sure thing.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I'd love Miller on the Leafs and would pay a lot to get him but we need to see how our goaltending holds up before adding any forward to our roster.

yup exactly. like you cant just look at the Tkachuk trade and think thats as quick as they always go. that was a unique trade, one we dont see often. in a cap world trades arent so easy and always more than one thing to consider.
Miller's asking price is high and rightfully so. VAN will get their pieces will it be as big as fans hope? likely not but still possible. I would put money on they get a very nice return some point this season

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

There doesn’t have to be a great piece in a rental deal. Rentals don’t get to return a great piece. They don’t.

And a deal of Necas + 2023 1st + Drury is a huge overpay for a guy that won’t be on your team a year from now.

I don’t think anyone is trading for JT Miller with the intent to resign him. It will be a possibility but unlikely to be a sure thing.

I never said great piece I said very good so thats your first mistake, your second is assuming no team would aquire Miller with the intent to extend him. I'd say its 50/50 that the acquiring team in a Miller deal extends him.

 

[TS Quint]

I'm not saying that at times Canucks fans haven't asked for too much or overstated Miller's worth, but this is an argument I see quite a bit here and it's pretty ignorant.

All you have to do is look at Miller's age and where the Canucks are at right now as a team and it's simple to see why he's a better fit on a team that is currently a contender compared to a team like Vancouver that is aiming to be one in 2-3 years.

So Miller is garbage in 2-3 years. Its worse than i thought. Is Mikheyev better in 3 years?

 

[kanucks25]

So Miller is garbage in 2-3 years. Its worse than i thought. Is Mikheyev better in 3 years?

Mikheyev's contract is like half of what Miller's contract will be. And they aren't really competing for the same money, they'll be playing totally different roles.

It's more Miller vs Horvat if anything.

And he may not be "garbage" in 3 years but of course you're paying for his prime and then living with whatever happens after that, but sometimes that's the price you pay as a contender if you're going all in.

 

[Canuck86]

And hes still available why?

His age doesn't fit managements timeline of being 2 years away from being competitive. JT also probably looking for a long term deal that pays him well. Canucks seem open to keeping him, just comes down to if the player or team bends a bit on the offers being presented.

Canucks have youth to sign in a couple years and Captain Horvat needs a new deal after this upcoming season. I think the team doesn't want to go full 8 yr term or not a an offer over 8m per year maybe 8.5m max

 

[Canuck86]

A franchise doesn’t acquire the player, they just acquire the contract.

Miller's current contract, even with 50% retained, is a diminishing asset with limited value.

Oh ya such a bad contract and player to trade for as a pending UFA at the TDL...the same player who has posted over a ppg over the last 3 years and could be dealt with 50% retention to have more suitors that may try to acquire him.

JT is not gonna bring back a massive haul but a young player/prospect and 2023 1st is very possible with say another pick with conditions on it.

Heck, JT could end up a Laff, probably gets them over the 1st round exits they continue to have!

 

[StorminSnvechnAho]

To Vancouver: Brett Pesce + 2nd round pick
To Carolina: JT Miller

Canucks get a very good RD at 4m for 2 seasons. He'd also have great value at the 2024 deadline if he doesn't show interest in re-signing.

Not a chance.