Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[arso40]

(Again, apologies for another long-winded post; feel free to skip/ignore, obviously! Thanks in advance to anyone who bothers to read it)

I think there’s been a lot of hyperbole on both sides of the Marner debate in this thread and others, but, I’ve been particularly gobsmacked by some of the statements from his more ardent supporters recently and thought I’d try a bit of a deeper dive into his playoff performance. Full disclosure – I soured on Marner years ago initially due to the contract but subsequently due to what I see as his softness and his failure to deliver when it matters in the playoffs. I respect the fact we can’t all agree, of course, but I get curious that I must be missing something when I see some of the following opinions about Playoff Marner: not only is Marner one of our ‘highest producing’ and ‘best playoff performers’, he is actually ‘one of the best in the league’ or even ‘one of the best players in the world’ in the playoffs. Just to reiterate, these are actually statements made here not about Regular Season Marner but about Playoff Marner.

I had some time to kill this week, so I decided to go back and try to see if I could analyse Marner’s contributions to winning games in the playoffs. I’m sure there are many flaws and imperfections in this approach, but, for what it’s worth, here are my findings, hopefully presented in a way that is relatively easy to digest and consider:

Key: Game Winning Points/Goals: GWP/GWG

Wins (Score)	GWP	GWG Scorer	Marner stats
Boston 2024
Game 3 (3-2)	0	Matthews	0 points
Game 5 (2-1)	0	Knies OT	1 primary assist
Game 6 (2-1)	0	Nylander	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 7 clinching loss; 1 goal and 2 primary assists for 3 points total; 0 points in 3 of 7 games; 1 point in 3 wins and 2 points in losses
Florida 2023
Game 4 (2-1)	1	Marner	1 goal, 1 secondary assist
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 5 clinching loss; 1 goal, 1 primary assist, 1 secondary assist for 3 points total; 0 points in 3 of 5 games; 2 points in 1 win and 1 point in 4 losses
Tampa 2023
Game 2 (7-2)	0	Nylander	2 goals, 1 primary assist
Game 3 (4-3)	0	Rielly OT	1 primary and 1 secondary assist
Game 4 (5-4)	0	Kerfoot OT	2 primary assists
Game 6 (2-1)	0	Tavares OT	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 6 clinching win; 3 goals, 4 primary assists and 4 secondary assists for 11 points total; 0 points in 1 of 6 games; 7 points in 4 wins and 4 points in 2 losses
Tampa 2022
Game 1 (5-0)	0	Muzzin	1 goal, 2 primary assists
Game 3 (5-2)	0	Kampf	1 secondary assist
Game 5 (4-3)	1	Matthews	1 primary assist
Marner series summary: 1 secondary assist in Game 7 clinching loss; 2 goals, 4 primary assists, 2 secondary assists for 8 points total; 0 points in 2 of 7 games; 5 points in 3 wins and 3 points in 4 losses
Montreal 2021
Game 2 (5-1)	1	Matthews	1 primary assist, 1 secondary assist
Game 3 (2-1)	1	Rielly	1 secondary assist
Game 5 (4-0)	0	Nylander	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 7 clinching loss; 0 goals, 2 primary assists and 2 secondary assists for 4 points total; 0 points in 4 of 7 games; 3 points in 3 wins and 1 point in 4 losses; 2 delay of game penalties
Columbus 2020
Game 2 (3-0)	0	Matthews	0 points
Game 4 (4-3)	1	Matthews OT	3 secondary assists
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 5 clinching loss; 0 goals, 1 primary assist and 3 secondary assists for 4 points total; 0 points in 3 of 5 games; 3 points in 2 wins and 1 point in 3 losses
Boston 2019
Game 1 (4-1)	1	Marner	2 goals
Game 3 (3-2)	0	Johnsson	1 secondary assist
Game 5 (2-1)	0	Kapanen	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 7 clinching loss; 2 goals, 1 primary assist and 1 secondary assist for 4 points total; 0 points in 4 of 7 games; 3 points in 3 wins and 1 point in 4 losses
Boston 2018
Game 3 (4-2)	0	Matthews	2 primary assists
Game 5 (4-3)	1	Van Riemsdyk	1 primary assist
Game 6 (3-1)	1	Marner	1 goal, 1 primary assist
Marner series summary: 1 primary assist in Game 7 clinching loss; 2 goals, 5 primary assists and 2 secondary assists for 9 points total; 0 points in 1 of 7 games; 5 points in 3 wins and 4 points in 4 losses
Washington 2017
Game 2 (4-3)	0	Kapanen	1 primary assist
Game 3 (4-3)	0	Bozak	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 6 clinching loss; 1 goal, 2 primary assists and one secondary assist for 4 points total; 0 points in 3 of 6 games; 1 point in 2 wins and 3 points in 4 losses

As I said, I’m sure there are things to pick apart here in the methodology and I welcome critiques and criticisms. For example, the whole GWP/GWG thing can be seen as a bit arbitrary, as we know, and this might be most glaring in the 2023 series against Tampa (our only win, as we’re all painfully aware): Marner had 11 points in 6 games, which is obviously good. Despite this, he had no GWP in 2023, which would seem to understate his contributions to winning games. However, it’s important, I think, to point out he had no assists on the three OT winners. I would argue that sudden death OT winners are less arbitrary as measures of winning games.

For me, the most telling statistics are Marner’s numbers in deciding games. In 9 series-deciding games, Marner has one primary assist and one secondary assist, both in losses. That’s 7 deciding games with zero points. They’ve lost all five loser-goes-home games and, when it matters most, Marner has mustered two assists.

So, is he one of the best in the world in the playoffs? I wish it was true, but I can’t see how he’s even one of the best on our team, at least in the post-season.

Again, thanks for reading.

PS: Apologies for not including Expected stats in my analysis, so happy for any experts to show how these actually prove Marner to be clutch.

lets see who still has an argument after reading this

 

[Hellcat]

How do you know for sure he was never on the market……unless maybe you work for his PR team……..tell me more

Top 10 goal scorer since 2016-17 with very few teams with the cap space to take on $11 mil... Skinner was told that he would have the chance to play with Marner and Matthews, Chief said he was looking forward to coaching Marner, Marners agent said they are going to play out the contract. Even to the most daft person would understand that, sure does not sound like a player who is going to get moved... the people in the know are saying he is going nowhere without saying he is going nowhere.. the people who need clicks are saying he is...it's not Rocket surgery.

 

[Racer88]

Top 10 goal scorer since 2016-17 with very few teams with the cap space to take on $11 mil... Skinner was told that he would have the chance to play with Marner and Matthews, Chief said he was looking forward to coaching Marner, Marners agent said they are going to play out the contract. Even to the most daft person would understand that, sure does not sound like a player who is going to get moved... the people in the know are saying he is going nowhere without saying he is going nowhere.. the people who need clicks are saying he is...it's not Rocket surgery.

He said, she said, but you really don’t know for sure so best not to pass off speculation as fact. I get it that you love Marner and he is the best ever but you are just a poster like the rest of us and all you have are opinions……….be better.
Top 10 goal scorer……..really

 

[Racer88]

lets see who still has an argument after reading this

Hell I can name 3 or 4

 

[LeafSteel]

(Again, apologies for another long-winded post; feel free to skip/ignore, obviously! Thanks in advance to anyone who bothers to read it)

I think there’s been a lot of hyperbole on both sides of the Marner debate in this thread and others, but, I’ve been particularly gobsmacked by some of the statements from his more ardent supporters recently and thought I’d try a bit of a deeper dive into his playoff performance. Full disclosure – I soured on Marner years ago initially due to the contract but subsequently due to what I see as his softness and his failure to deliver when it matters in the playoffs. I respect the fact we can’t all agree, of course, but I get curious that I must be missing something when I see some of the following opinions about Playoff Marner: not only is Marner one of our ‘highest producing’ and ‘best playoff performers’, he is actually ‘one of the best in the league’ or even ‘one of the best players in the world’ in the playoffs. Just to reiterate, these are actually statements made here not about Regular Season Marner but about Playoff Marner.

I had some time to kill this week, so I decided to go back and try to see if I could analyse Marner’s contributions to winning games in the playoffs. I’m sure there are many flaws and imperfections in this approach, but, for what it’s worth, here are my findings, hopefully presented in a way that is relatively easy to digest and consider:

Key: Game Winning Points/Goals: GWP/GWG

Wins (Score)	GWP	GWG Scorer	Marner stats
Boston 2024
Game 3 (3-2)	0	Matthews	0 points
Game 5 (2-1)	0	Knies OT	1 primary assist
Game 6 (2-1)	0	Nylander	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 7 clinching loss; 1 goal and 2 primary assists for 3 points total; 0 points in 3 of 7 games; 1 point in 3 wins and 2 points in losses
Florida 2023
Game 4 (2-1)	1	Marner	1 goal, 1 secondary assist
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 5 clinching loss; 1 goal, 1 primary assist, 1 secondary assist for 3 points total; 0 points in 3 of 5 games; 2 points in 1 win and 1 point in 4 losses
Tampa 2023
Game 2 (7-2)	0	Nylander	2 goals, 1 primary assist
Game 3 (4-3)	0	Rielly OT	1 primary and 1 secondary assist
Game 4 (5-4)	0	Kerfoot OT	2 primary assists
Game 6 (2-1)	0	Tavares OT	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 6 clinching win; 3 goals, 4 primary assists and 4 secondary assists for 11 points total; 0 points in 1 of 6 games; 7 points in 4 wins and 4 points in 2 losses
Tampa 2022
Game 1 (5-0)	0	Muzzin	1 goal, 2 primary assists
Game 3 (5-2)	0	Kampf	1 secondary assist
Game 5 (4-3)	1	Matthews	1 primary assist
Marner series summary: 1 secondary assist in Game 7 clinching loss; 2 goals, 4 primary assists, 2 secondary assists for 8 points total; 0 points in 2 of 7 games; 5 points in 3 wins and 3 points in 4 losses
Montreal 2021
Game 2 (5-1)	1	Matthews	1 primary assist, 1 secondary assist
Game 3 (2-1)	1	Rielly	1 secondary assist
Game 5 (4-0)	0	Nylander	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 7 clinching loss; 0 goals, 2 primary assists and 2 secondary assists for 4 points total; 0 points in 4 of 7 games; 3 points in 3 wins and 1 point in 4 losses; 2 delay of game penalties
Columbus 2020
Game 2 (3-0)	0	Matthews	0 points
Game 4 (4-3)	1	Matthews OT	3 secondary assists
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 5 clinching loss; 0 goals, 1 primary assist and 3 secondary assists for 4 points total; 0 points in 3 of 5 games; 3 points in 2 wins and 1 point in 3 losses
Boston 2019
Game 1 (4-1)	1	Marner	2 goals
Game 3 (3-2)	0	Johnsson	1 secondary assist
Game 5 (2-1)	0	Kapanen	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 7 clinching loss; 2 goals, 1 primary assist and 1 secondary assist for 4 points total; 0 points in 4 of 7 games; 3 points in 3 wins and 1 point in 4 losses
Boston 2018
Game 3 (4-2)	0	Matthews	2 primary assists
Game 5 (4-3)	1	Van Riemsdyk	1 primary assist
Game 6 (3-1)	1	Marner	1 goal, 1 primary assist
Marner series summary: 1 primary assist in Game 7 clinching loss; 2 goals, 5 primary assists and 2 secondary assists for 9 points total; 0 points in 1 of 7 games; 5 points in 3 wins and 4 points in 4 losses
Washington 2017
Game 2 (4-3)	0	Kapanen	1 primary assist
Game 3 (4-3)	0	Bozak	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 6 clinching loss; 1 goal, 2 primary assists and one secondary assist for 4 points total; 0 points in 3 of 6 games; 1 point in 2 wins and 3 points in 4 losses

As I said, I’m sure there are things to pick apart here in the methodology and I welcome critiques and criticisms. For example, the whole GWP/GWG thing can be seen as a bit arbitrary, as we know, and this might be most glaring in the 2023 series against Tampa (our only win, as we’re all painfully aware): Marner had 11 points in 6 games, which is obviously good. Despite this, he had no GWP in 2023, which would seem to understate his contributions to winning games. However, it’s important, I think, to point out he had no assists on the three OT winners. I would argue that sudden death OT winners are less arbitrary as measures of winning games.

For me, the most telling statistics are Marner’s numbers in deciding games. In 9 series-deciding games, Marner has one primary assist and one secondary assist, both in losses. That’s 7 deciding games with zero points. They’ve lost all five loser-goes-home games and, when it matters most, Marner has mustered two assists.

So, is he one of the best in the world in the playoffs? I wish it was true, but I can’t see how he’s even one of the best on our team, at least in the post-season.

Again, thanks for reading.

PS: Apologies for not including Expected stats in my analysis, so happy for any experts to show how these actually prove Marner to be clutch.

Please post more often.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Oh now Hockey is a team game...? But it isn't when you Marner fans want to compare him to other players who don't have elite linemates?

Marner supporters:..." omg look at Marners 90 point seasons! He is much better than Aho, Barzal and Eichel..because they produce less than he does." (Ignoring the fact that Aho and Barzal play for more defensive minded teams with no elite linemates. Also ignoring the fact that elite players with elite linemates are producing up to 50 points more than Marner.)

Agreed Hockey is a team sport, which is why one must look much deeper than points.

If you use your eyes, and look closer at the stats, Marners shortcomings become very apparent. His shortcoming, because it's a team sport, heavily effect his linemates. Here is what we know:

1) Marner plays 10' further from the net in playoffs vs season. Significantly more than other core 4. How does this effect his linemates?
2) Marners playoff slot shots dry up in playoffs vs season.Significantly more than other core 4.
3) 5vs5 Matthews since he entered the league has produced a similar g/60 points/60 with anyone he plays with. Some players (ie Domi) he produced significantly more with than Marner. Matthews produced as much with Marleau in his first couple years as Marner in recent years. How does playing with Matthews benefit Marner?
4) We have alot of evidence that Matthews raises his teammates points. We don't have evidence of Marner doing it. As noted Matthews has been more productive with others than Marner.
5) Marner has many more times the giveaways in must win playoff games that have led to gwg against in big games than his linemates. At least 6, 7 if you count the Boston OT. How does this effect his linemates? How has this effected his lunemates ability to win series. Hint - very big.
6) We see with our eyes that Marners lack of speed, and strength is a big problem in playoffs. How does this effect his linemates.
7) As noted by journalists, Matthews plays a similar game in the playoffs as season (shot location, shot distance), however Marner playing much further from the net creates problems for Matthews. How has this effected Matthews ability to produce points?
8) We have two videos 4 playoffs apart showing Marner pulling the chute on simple cycle plays because he doesn't want to get hit. How does a player refusing to play cycle effect strong players capable of cyclibg like Matthews and Tavares?

Etc etc.

Points don't matter... once you "watch" the plays that Marner collects points on...you will note that his significant amount of time on ice with elite linemates is the reason he collects poiints. His elite "teammates" did the heavy lifting and gift wrap his points. He doesn't do the same for his linemates. Matthews points are despite Marner not because of Marner (while generally the reverse is true for Marner).

If you want to review all his points, let's do it. Most of the points you ll even hear the commentators say "what a play by insert players name other than Marner". That game 5 OT goal vs Tampa is a big example..Marner fans keep pointing to it as if Marner did alot. He sat at center ice I'm an open area and waited while Matthews was magnificent and did everything. A bank shot in a 2 vs 1..whoo! That's a play I seen regularly and recently saw it in an AHL game.

There is a reason Marner is taking as much heat as he does...and it's not because people have just randomly chosen him as a whipping boy. This has culminated over the last 5 playoffs.
He doesn't do the same for his linemates.

Recall that Nylander used to be the whipping boy. I even at one point didn't like his play. However, that changed because of his strong play and his play relative to his contract. People have been fair to Marner and still are.

Now that's what I call the icing on the cake!

 

[ACC1224]

(Again, apologies for another long-winded post; feel free to skip/ignore, obviously! Thanks in advance to anyone who bothers to read it)

I think there’s been a lot of hyperbole on both sides of the Marner debate in this thread and others, but, I’ve been particularly gobsmacked by some of the statements from his more ardent supporters recently and thought I’d try a bit of a deeper dive into his playoff performance. Full disclosure – I soured on Marner years ago initially due to the contract but subsequently due to what I see as his softness and his failure to deliver when it matters in the playoffs. I respect the fact we can’t all agree, of course, but I get curious that I must be missing something when I see some of the following opinions about Playoff Marner: not only is Marner one of our ‘highest producing’ and ‘best playoff performers’, he is actually ‘one of the best in the league’ or even ‘one of the best players in the world’ in the playoffs. Just to reiterate, these are actually statements made here not about Regular Season Marner but about Playoff Marner.

I had some time to kill this week, so I decided to go back and try to see if I could analyse Marner’s contributions to winning games in the playoffs. I’m sure there are many flaws and imperfections in this approach, but, for what it’s worth, here are my findings, hopefully presented in a way that is relatively easy to digest and consider:

Key: Game Winning Points/Goals: GWP/GWG

Wins (Score)	GWP	GWG Scorer	Marner stats
Boston 2024
Game 3 (3-2)	0	Matthews	0 points
Game 5 (2-1)	0	Knies OT	1 primary assist
Game 6 (2-1)	0	Nylander	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 7 clinching loss; 1 goal and 2 primary assists for 3 points total; 0 points in 3 of 7 games; 1 point in 3 wins and 2 points in losses
Florida 2023
Game 4 (2-1)	1	Marner	1 goal, 1 secondary assist
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 5 clinching loss; 1 goal, 1 primary assist, 1 secondary assist for 3 points total; 0 points in 3 of 5 games; 2 points in 1 win and 1 point in 4 losses
Tampa 2023
Game 2 (7-2)	0	Nylander	2 goals, 1 primary assist
Game 3 (4-3)	0	Rielly OT	1 primary and 1 secondary assist
Game 4 (5-4)	0	Kerfoot OT	2 primary assists
Game 6 (2-1)	0	Tavares OT	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 6 clinching win; 3 goals, 4 primary assists and 4 secondary assists for 11 points total; 0 points in 1 of 6 games; 7 points in 4 wins and 4 points in 2 losses
Tampa 2022
Game 1 (5-0)	0	Muzzin	1 goal, 2 primary assists
Game 3 (5-2)	0	Kampf	1 secondary assist
Game 5 (4-3)	1	Matthews	1 primary assist
Marner series summary: 1 secondary assist in Game 7 clinching loss; 2 goals, 4 primary assists, 2 secondary assists for 8 points total; 0 points in 2 of 7 games; 5 points in 3 wins and 3 points in 4 losses
Montreal 2021
Game 2 (5-1)	1	Matthews	1 primary assist, 1 secondary assist
Game 3 (2-1)	1	Rielly	1 secondary assist
Game 5 (4-0)	0	Nylander	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 7 clinching loss; 0 goals, 2 primary assists and 2 secondary assists for 4 points total; 0 points in 4 of 7 games; 3 points in 3 wins and 1 point in 4 losses; 2 delay of game penalties
Columbus 2020
Game 2 (3-0)	0	Matthews	0 points
Game 4 (4-3)	1	Matthews OT	3 secondary assists
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 5 clinching loss; 0 goals, 1 primary assist and 3 secondary assists for 4 points total; 0 points in 3 of 5 games; 3 points in 2 wins and 1 point in 3 losses
Boston 2019
Game 1 (4-1)	1	Marner	2 goals
Game 3 (3-2)	0	Johnsson	1 secondary assist
Game 5 (2-1)	0	Kapanen	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 7 clinching loss; 2 goals, 1 primary assist and 1 secondary assist for 4 points total; 0 points in 4 of 7 games; 3 points in 3 wins and 1 point in 4 losses
Boston 2018
Game 3 (4-2)	0	Matthews	2 primary assists
Game 5 (4-3)	1	Van Riemsdyk	1 primary assist
Game 6 (3-1)	1	Marner	1 goal, 1 primary assist
Marner series summary: 1 primary assist in Game 7 clinching loss; 2 goals, 5 primary assists and 2 secondary assists for 9 points total; 0 points in 1 of 7 games; 5 points in 3 wins and 4 points in 4 losses
Washington 2017
Game 2 (4-3)	0	Kapanen	1 primary assist
Game 3 (4-3)	0	Bozak	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 6 clinching loss; 1 goal, 2 primary assists and one secondary assist for 4 points total; 0 points in 3 of 6 games; 1 point in 2 wins and 3 points in 4 losses

As I said, I’m sure there are things to pick apart here in the methodology and I welcome critiques and criticisms. For example, the whole GWP/GWG thing can be seen as a bit arbitrary, as we know, and this might be most glaring in the 2023 series against Tampa (our only win, as we’re all painfully aware): Marner had 11 points in 6 games, which is obviously good. Despite this, he had no GWP in 2023, which would seem to understate his contributions to winning games. However, it’s important, I think, to point out he had no assists on the three OT winners. I would argue that sudden death OT winners are less arbitrary as measures of winning games.

For me, the most telling statistics are Marner’s numbers in deciding games. In 9 series-deciding games, Marner has one primary assist and one secondary assist, both in losses. That’s 7 deciding games with zero points. They’ve lost all five loser-goes-home games and, when it matters most, Marner has mustered two assists.

So, is he one of the best in the world in the playoffs? I wish it was true, but I can’t see how he’s even one of the best on our team, at least in the post-season.

Again, thanks for reading.

PS: Apologies for not including Expected stats in my analysis, so happy for any experts to show how these actually prove Marner to be clutch.

It’s nice when someone can just make their point without the over the top personal attacks on the player.

I don’t think anyone believes he’s ’one of the best playoff performers”, they are just battling the overly negative opinions and made up personal attacks on the player with overly positive ones.
They’ve all underachieved, IMO. One just seems to be receiving much more of the angst than the others.

 

[Captain Crunch]

This "fine" guy gets Selke votes every year. Very few of his peers play ES/SH/PP, I think only Marchand has less ES time. He's 10th in scoring over the last 6 years/ he is in the top 5% of production, makes sense he would be in the top 5% of cap hit.

But see, that's been the problem all along. The Leafs have proven, over the last 5 playoffs, that you can't win in the playoffs with 4 forwards taking up so much cap space. And it's beginning to look like they might try it with 3 forwards each making over $11 million IF Marner ends up resigning. Fingers crossed this doesn't happen!

As for the Marchand comparison, the ES/SH/PP time is where it ends. Marchand is by far the superior player in the playoffs due to his physical play, his ability to get under his opponent's skin, not afraid to go to the dirty areas to get the puck, as well as his willingness to take a hit in order to make a play. I will also add that he has played for Team Canada and been one of the key contributors while doing so. His "crossing the line" bothers me, but it would bother me less if he was a Leaf.

 

[Captain Crunch]

It’s nice when someone can just make their point without the over the top personal attacks on the player.

I don’t think anyone believes he’s ’one of the best playoff performers”, they are just battling the overly negative opinions and made up personal attacks on the player with overly positive ones.
They’ve all underachieved, IMO. One just seems to be receiving much more of the angst than the others.

And how he handles interviews with the press does not help either.

 

[ACC1224]

And how he handles interviews with the press does not help either.

Sure but why care about that?
That has nothing to do with his play on the ice.

 

[Fogelhund]

But see, that's been the problem all along. The Leafs have proven, over the last 5 playoffs, that you can't win in the playoffs with 4 forwards taking up so much cap space. And it's beginning to look like they might try it with 3 forwards each making over $11 million IF Marner ends up resigning. Fingers crossed this doesn't happen!

As for the Marchand comparison, the ES/SH/PP time is where it ends. Marchand is by far the superior player in the playoffs due to his physical play, his ability to get under his opponent's skin, not afraid to go to the dirty areas to get the puck, as well as his willingness to take a hit in order to make a play. His "crossing the line" bothers me, but it would bother me less if he was a Leaf.

That's an incorrect conclusion. It wouldn't matter if these guys were making less, and we had more cap room. What it has proven is THESE players don't raise their game in the playoffs. When your best players aren't the best players on the ice, you aren't going to win, no matter what they are paid. It doesn't matter who the support players are, who the depth are and so on... these highly paid players, either become winners and put the team on their backs when it counts, or this team will never win.... that's true if we move Marner out, and only have two forwards making as much as they do. Teams win and die by their leaders, and best players... and ours aren't good enough when it counts.

 

[Havoc]

You guys must understand that having an overpaid JT on your team in 2024 is still a once in a life time priviledge. You don't get to sign these guys in UFA when they're 27.

What I mean by this, is that you can clear up even 50 mil right now. I guarantee you that you won't fill up the cap space in any worthwhile ways. The players you want aren't coming. Bottom feeders that are close to the cap floor will remain bottom feeders until they get elite talent to carry their team. When they're ready to compete, guess what, they will have cap issues of their own and will need to get creative.

The Marners of the league stay. There will be enough cap space for depth. The lawn chair theory is 100% real. You just need to figure out the correct color that matches your decor so-to-speak.

 

[GoonieFace]

(Again, apologies for another long-winded post; feel free to skip/ignore, obviously! Thanks in advance to anyone who bothers to read it)

I think there’s been a lot of hyperbole on both sides of the Marner debate in this thread and others, but, I’ve been particularly gobsmacked by some of the statements from his more ardent supporters recently and thought I’d try a bit of a deeper dive into his playoff performance. Full disclosure – I soured on Marner years ago initially due to the contract but subsequently due to what I see as his softness and his failure to deliver when it matters in the playoffs. I respect the fact we can’t all agree, of course, but I get curious that I must be missing something when I see some of the following opinions about Playoff Marner: not only is Marner one of our ‘highest producing’ and ‘best playoff performers’, he is actually ‘one of the best in the league’ or even ‘one of the best players in the world’ in the playoffs. Just to reiterate, these are actually statements made here not about Regular Season Marner but about Playoff Marner.

I had some time to kill this week, so I decided to go back and try to see if I could analyse Marner’s contributions to winning games in the playoffs. I’m sure there are many flaws and imperfections in this approach, but, for what it’s worth, here are my findings, hopefully presented in a way that is relatively easy to digest and consider:

Key: Game Winning Points/Goals: GWP/GWG

Wins (Score)	GWP	GWG Scorer	Marner stats
Boston 2024
Game 3 (3-2)	0	Matthews	0 points
Game 5 (2-1)	0	Knies OT	1 primary assist
Game 6 (2-1)	0	Nylander	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 7 clinching loss; 1 goal and 2 primary assists for 3 points total; 0 points in 3 of 7 games; 1 point in 3 wins and 2 points in losses
Florida 2023
Game 4 (2-1)	1	Marner	1 goal, 1 secondary assist
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 5 clinching loss; 1 goal, 1 primary assist, 1 secondary assist for 3 points total; 0 points in 3 of 5 games; 2 points in 1 win and 1 point in 4 losses
Tampa 2023
Game 2 (7-2)	0	Nylander	2 goals, 1 primary assist
Game 3 (4-3)	0	Rielly OT	1 primary and 1 secondary assist
Game 4 (5-4)	0	Kerfoot OT	2 primary assists
Game 6 (2-1)	0	Tavares OT	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 6 clinching win; 3 goals, 4 primary assists and 4 secondary assists for 11 points total; 0 points in 1 of 6 games; 7 points in 4 wins and 4 points in 2 losses
Tampa 2022
Game 1 (5-0)	0	Muzzin	1 goal, 2 primary assists
Game 3 (5-2)	0	Kampf	1 secondary assist
Game 5 (4-3)	1	Matthews	1 primary assist
Marner series summary: 1 secondary assist in Game 7 clinching loss; 2 goals, 4 primary assists, 2 secondary assists for 8 points total; 0 points in 2 of 7 games; 5 points in 3 wins and 3 points in 4 losses
Montreal 2021
Game 2 (5-1)	1	Matthews	1 primary assist, 1 secondary assist
Game 3 (2-1)	1	Rielly	1 secondary assist
Game 5 (4-0)	0	Nylander	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 7 clinching loss; 0 goals, 2 primary assists and 2 secondary assists for 4 points total; 0 points in 4 of 7 games; 3 points in 3 wins and 1 point in 4 losses; 2 delay of game penalties
Columbus 2020
Game 2 (3-0)	0	Matthews	0 points
Game 4 (4-3)	1	Matthews OT	3 secondary assists
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 5 clinching loss; 0 goals, 1 primary assist and 3 secondary assists for 4 points total; 0 points in 3 of 5 games; 3 points in 2 wins and 1 point in 3 losses
Boston 2019
Game 1 (4-1)	1	Marner	2 goals
Game 3 (3-2)	0	Johnsson	1 secondary assist
Game 5 (2-1)	0	Kapanen	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 7 clinching loss; 2 goals, 1 primary assist and 1 secondary assist for 4 points total; 0 points in 4 of 7 games; 3 points in 3 wins and 1 point in 4 losses
Boston 2018
Game 3 (4-2)	0	Matthews	2 primary assists
Game 5 (4-3)	1	Van Riemsdyk	1 primary assist
Game 6 (3-1)	1	Marner	1 goal, 1 primary assist
Marner series summary: 1 primary assist in Game 7 clinching loss; 2 goals, 5 primary assists and 2 secondary assists for 9 points total; 0 points in 1 of 7 games; 5 points in 3 wins and 4 points in 4 losses
Washington 2017
Game 2 (4-3)	0	Kapanen	1 primary assist
Game 3 (4-3)	0	Bozak	0 points
Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 6 clinching loss; 1 goal, 2 primary assists and one secondary assist for 4 points total; 0 points in 3 of 6 games; 1 point in 2 wins and 3 points in 4 losses

As I said, I’m sure there are things to pick apart here in the methodology and I welcome critiques and criticisms. For example, the whole GWP/GWG thing can be seen as a bit arbitrary, as we know, and this might be most glaring in the 2023 series against Tampa (our only win, as we’re all painfully aware): Marner had 11 points in 6 games, which is obviously good. Despite this, he had no GWP in 2023, which would seem to understate his contributions to winning games. However, it’s important, I think, to point out he had no assists on the three OT winners. I would argue that sudden death OT winners are less arbitrary as measures of winning games.

For me, the most telling statistics are Marner’s numbers in deciding games. In 9 series-deciding games, Marner has one primary assist and one secondary assist, both in losses. That’s 7 deciding games with zero points. They’ve lost all five loser-goes-home games and, when it matters most, Marner has mustered two assists.

So, is he one of the best in the world in the playoffs? I wish it was true, but I can’t see how he’s even one of the best on our team, at least in the post-season.

Again, thanks for reading.

PS: Apologies for not including Expected stats in my analysis, so happy for any experts to show how these actually prove Marner to be clutch.

Excellent post. Several people on here have asked, show me a Marner goal/assist or play in general that was made during a crucial time in the playoffs. We get clips of him blocking a shot 5 years ago, and a useless goal this playoff in game that was already over.

Matthews and Nylander have both had big moments in the playoffs, perhaps not enough of them. But Marner is basically invisible. Yet a small group fight to the bitter end to defend him.

Yes, there are some on here that bash him to the extreme, and most of us don’t necessarily agree with that either.

Of the big 4, Marner has quite simply been the least impressive in the playoffs.

That being said, he is more than likely a Leaf next season, so all we can do is hope he steps up when it counts, but hopefully the Leafs don’t commit long term.

 

[Madap]

Sure but why care about that?
That has nothing to do with his play on the ice.

How a player acts off the ice can be very telling as to how he will act on the ice, or at least react to certain game situations.

 

[francis246]

How a player acts off the ice can be very telling as to how he will act on the ice, or at least react to certain game situations.

Zero correlation between the two. No it can’t be. This is dumbest thing I’ve ever read. There are MANY athletes who are not good with the media who excel on the ice or on the field. It’s just really stupid that anyone thinks that media responses have anything to do with on ice situations. It literally doesn’t.

 

[Madap]

Zero correlation between the two. No it can’t be. This is dumbest thing I’ve ever read. There are MANY athletes who are not good with the media who excel on the ice. It’s just really stupid that anyone thinks that media responses have anything to do with on ice situations. It literally doesn’t.

Agree to disagree. If Marner slips up and says “God” instead of something else, then yeah its funny but no big deal.

But if his first response to a random question after returning from injury is to shit on the media for no reason, it shows exactly how sensitive he is. You don’t think that shows up on the bench? We saw the guy almost break down in tears in the playoffs because Nylander didn’t pass him the puck.

There are many examples of players reacting strangely to the media, outside of random slip ups, and that’s based on their personality.

No where did I say that someone who is bad with the media can’t be elite on the ice by the way. So calm down big guy, no need to get so worked up this early in the morning over something no one said.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I check HFboards about five times a day hoping that we've traded Marner. I mean, hope is really far too strong of a word, more like mildly optimistic that surely by NOW they're going to do something big to change the team for next year. I have zero expectations that they actually will, the path of the least resistance is the defining feature of this team with Shanahan as an executive, but hey, I take comfort in the routine and there's some fun there in the way that I imagine scratch lottery tickets are.

The Leafs can't trade him as there's no team in the league that will meet Marner's ridiculous salary demands. He will play here next year and by doing so create an extremely toxic situation for the team. He'll get his wake up call in FA when there's no team that will be anywhere close to meeting his ask.

Most people don't even talk about winger's defensive games much unless they're those rare wingers who really seperate themselves from the pack, like Hossa, Stone and Zetterberg (who the wings alternated between C and W).

Is Marner having the same effect on his team defensively as these guys did, especially in the postseason? Not even f***ing close.

What? He was GREAT on that series winning OT goal!

 

[francis246]

Agree to disagree. If Marner slips up and says “God” instead of something else, then yeah its funny but no big deal.

But if his first response to a random question after returning from injury is to shit on the media for no reason, it shows exactly how sensitive he is. You don’t think that shows up on the bench? We saw the guy almost break down in tears in the playoffs because Nylander didn’t pass him the puck.

There are many examples of players reacting strangely to the media, outside of random slip ups, and that’s based on their personality.

No where did I say that someone who is bad with the media can’t be elite on the ice by the way. So calm down big guy, no need to get so worked up this early in the morning over something no one said.

Nylander wasn’t talking to Marner. He was talking to Matthews by the way. I was actually able to verify that a few weeks ago. I also have a close personal tie to someone who has worked for MLSE/The Leafs. (Now has moved on to the Blue Jays organization.) That I get to see everyday and talk to everyday lol. Marner’s personality with the media is completely different than it is with his teammates/anyone in the leafs organization. He just doesn’t really like the media and that’s okay too.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Zero correlation between the two. No it can’t be. This is dumbest thing I’ve ever read. There are MANY athletes who are not good with the media who excel on the ice or on the field. It’s just really stupid that anyone thinks that media responses have anything to do with on ice situations. It literally doesn’t.

If Marner didn't disappear in the biggest games, nobody would care what he says to the media but as long as he's our 11 million dollar playoff wuss, everything he does will be analyzed. And in Marner's case, the way he often comes across in interviews (especially during the playoffs) dovetails perfectly with his on ice failures in the biggest games.

Yes interviews doesn't matter, start showing up in the biggest games and nobody will care.

 

[ACC1224]

Nylander wasn’t talking to Marner. He was talking to Matthews by the way. I was actually able to verify that a few weeks ago. I also have a close personal tie to someone who has worked for MLSE/The Leafs. (Now has moved on to the Blue Jays organization.) That I get to see everyday and talk to everyday lol. Marner’s personality with the media is completely different than it is with his teammates/anyone in the leafs organization. He just doesn’t really like the media and that’s okay too.

Correct, Matthews and Marner were frustrated with Nylander for not following the set play and then not caring that it cost them possession.

 

[Madap]

Nylander wasn’t talking to Marner. He was talking to Matthews by the way. I was actually able to verify that a few weeks ago. I also have a close personal tie to someone who has worked for MLSE/The Leafs. (Now has moved on to the Blue Jays organization.) That I get to see everyday and talk to everyday lol. Marner’s personality with the media is completely different than it is with his teammates/anyone in the leafs organization. He just doesn’t really like the media and that’s okay too.

Sure, that’s possible. As fans it’s tough to ever know for sure what goes through players minds when their on the ice.

Personally I think there has to be a correlation between how a player acts off and on the ice. It’s just ingrained in their personality and it’s how they act/react to certain situations. The effect will obviously vary from player to player, but I really don’t see how we can dismiss it completely.

 

[francis246]

Correct, Matthews and Marner were frustrated with Nylander for not following the set play and then not caring that it cost them possession.

Yup and what I was told was Marner was frustrated that the boys were arguing. Felt that situation might kick start the end of those three together. He really doesn’t want to leave. While it may not be possible for cap reasons. Nylander, Marner and Matthews want to spend their careers together. That has been expressed by all three to MLSE and they want to win here. So I respect it, you have three superstars who want to be in this market and win. I don’t know if it’s the right mix ultimately.

 

[francis246]

Sure, that’s possible. As fans it’s tough to ever know for sure what goes through players minds when their on the ice.

Personally I think there has to be a correlation between how a player acts off and on the ice. It’s just ingrained in their personality and it’s how they act/react to certain situations. The effect will obviously vary from player to player, but I really don’t see how we can dismiss it completely.

You’re free to believe whatever you want, I just know you’re wrong on this one. Marner is pretty sensitive to the media at the moment but he’s not a sensitive guy in general. My brother had daily interactions with all the guys while working in MLSE and he said the leafs were always a fun easy going, layed back group. Muzzin, Kapanen, Nylander and Marner were the easiest to talk to. I used to say the same thing at home. “Why is Marner so sensitive or why is Matthews a dick”. Was always told they are nothing like they are portrayed.

The one thing I’m grateful my brother taught me is that the media/social media perspective of athletes/coaches/GM’s is usually wrong 90% of the time and even more so in hockey. Hockey players are just more protective of their personalities for whatever reason. He said the only person people have been right about is Babcock. That guy was just a dick to just about everyone who worked in MLSE lol.

 

[seanlinden]

This "fine" guy gets Selke votes every year. Very few of his peers play ES/SH/PP, I think only Marchand has less ES time. He's 10th in scoring over the last 6 years/ he is in the top 5% of production, makes sense he would be in the top 5% of cap hit.

Marner gets selke votes because he's a #1 penalty killer in Toronto.... which is unusual for a guy that also puts up ~100 points, and the voters, looking to fill out their ballots, go "oooooh" wow.

Not once has anyone seemingly considered that having Marner play the PK is at the very best, useless, and realistically, stupid. He's doing a job that should be done by a $1m player like Connor Dewar or Noah Gregor. The Leafs put him in harms way blocking shots; and it's not like he's an actual threat to score or create shorthanded offence. He had 1 shorthanded point all year.

As I've repeatedly mentioned in this thread, I don't neccessarily have a problem with him at $11m this year, making him the 12th highest paid player in the league. I think you can certainly make an arguement that he's the 12th best player in the league, or somewhere in that ballpark.

The problem is / was, when you sign a 22 year old player to a 6-year contract, it should not take until the last year of it for that deal to become "on par" with the rest of the league. The first year or two, overpaid sure. The last year or two, he should be substantially underpaid relative to his standing in the league.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

I hope they don't trade him or sign him.

Keep us all twisting in the wind for as long as possible. That would be the most entertaining thing they could do. It will be a long boring summer without this mess to talk about.

And make no mistakes about it, this team is in a mess.

At some point they have to do what's right for the team and the fans. It's not about winning a Marner trade. It's about initiating a change in direction.

A culture shift while correcting both the payroll and roster imbalances.

Eight years later and the 1RHD and goaltending are STILL suspect. The same team, with the same problems, headed straight for the same results. Trading Marner would be the quickest and easiest way of fixing that mess they've created for themselves now wouldn't it.

I just don't want it to happen until trade deadline is all.