Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[Captain Crunch]

That’s on the GM not the player. The GM is in charge of managing the cap and seeing those projections. Dubas has to have the foresight to know that the Market was not going to reset with the Marner contract. Could he have not picked up the phone and called Sakic and get a ball park for Rantanen lol. He just didn’t do enough research or enough work. Which is what we are gonna see/read about in this book. Which why I don’t understand alot of the Marner hate in terms of the contract. Dubas should shoulder about 95% of the blame for the contract. He overpaid Marner, who was an RFA with some leverage because he’s a good player but not a whole lot.

I would say 100% of the blame, and I would definitely include Shanahan as well! Players don't have to take the "hometown discount", but management needs to have the balls to draw the line in the sand and stick to it!

 

[Captain Crunch]

Nylander is objectively the 3rd best of the 3.

If we lost Nylander, it would take years to a decade for us to have a forward that provides what he does for us. Imagine replacing Matthews and Marner too.

This place has gone completely insane with all this cap space talk.

So are you saying that since Marner hasn't been resigned yet, that he should be resigned at the latest, after this upcoming season?

 

[notDatsyuk]

You keep coming back to this point.... it's just not realistic. You don't need to know exactly what the offers were to know that a 40-goal scorer making $7m with 1 year left and limited to no trade protection is going to hold immense value; even if it may not be the exact "type" of value you need

The offer(s) were probably comprised of first round picks, prospects, maybe young NHL players, maybe having to take a little bit of money back.

The problem almost certainly was, that there wasn't the "one for one" right shot defenceman available that would have allowed the Leafs to improve immediately in the trade (given how underpaid Nylander was in the last year of his deal); and Treliving didn't want to make a move that might have been a step back.

That being said, if in the highly unrealistic scenario that was all you could get, then treat him as an "own rental", and make it abundantly clear that you're no longer negotiating and he can walk as a UFA.... not pay him $2m more than his comparables on other teams, just because he got paid less than Marner for the last 5 years.

Yes, because you keep making the huge mistake of assuming that it is intended as a serious valuation, while I have repeatedly told you that it isn't.

You have a particular assessment of his trade value. I probably have a different one, possibly higher. I'm sure Tre has a different one, as do likely every other GM.

All we know is that Tre considered moving him. We don't know who he talked to, or what they offered, or even if they offered anything. Tre said he didn't get an offer that worked for him, so he didn't make a trade. That's all we know.

Your screaming invectives at Tre for not doing what you think he should have done, without having any facts, is pointless.

Apparently so is my trying to explain this to you, so I'll stop.

 

[Aashir]

Nylander is objectively the 3rd best of the 3.

If we lost Nylander, it would take years to a decade for us to have a forward that provides what he does for us. Imagine replacing Matthews and Marner too.

This place has gone completely insane with all this cap space talk.

But why would you need to get a forward that provides what he does? We’d only be walking back into the current ideology of the “core 4” and see where it’s gotten us?

Nylander could’ve been turned into a defencemen + winger.

Marner can be too, and Matthews could’ve been turned into a haul.

You don’t need this level of “talent” to win. I have 8 years of proof of that + all the teams who won without a core 4. Moreover, this talent is overrated, it always disappears when needed.

This isn’t a cap space problem, this is a player problem. These guys could each be making 1-1.5 million less than they currently are and unless the cap savings is spent on a player who is a ppg+ player it won’t matter. These guys cannot lead any team anywhere past the first round.

Matthews hasn’t shown the ability to consistently step up and play as the #1 option. He has more of a rantanen/point in him vs a Mackinnon/kucherov. He also almost always gets “injured” every year in the playoffs.

Marner hasn’t shown that he can be effective with his style of play. Standing around at the point and barely shooting is now how you win hockey games but Marner is going to try as hard as hell to make it work. Dude thinks he is Cale Makar mixed with Quinn Hughes

Nylander just isn’t good enough to change the course of a series. He’s a complimentary piece, he gives you a great second wave of attack after your big guys are working the opponent, but that doesn’t happen here

Tavares has been an ok 3C since joining us in the playoffs. He’s been an embarrassment in so many series’s it’s not funny. He’s been a 3/4C more times than he has been a 2C.

 

[Fogelhund]

I guess we will agree to disagree then. No team has ever done it, and I believe never will (in terms of percentage of cap space being taken up). Also, I have pointed out countless times that these 4 players are the ones responsible for never having gotten it done, and that changes had to be made with this core.

and the sample size for this incredibly scientific conclusion? Yes, one team. Toronto.

Also... no team can win a cup with a player making over $10 million... oops, then Eichel did it.
Also... no team can win a cup with a goalie making over $10 million... oops, then Bob did it.

In terms of percentage of cap being taken up by the top four players, the 2015-16 Penguins had 45% of their cap in the top 4. The Leafs last year were just a touch higher than this. If you give Marner $12 million, and Tavares $5 million on their next contracts, with the expected 2025-26 cap of $92 million, they'll be below the 2015-16 Penguins.... does that suddenly mean that this is a winning formula?

 

[notDatsyuk]

Nylander at 11.5 is gonna be tough to swollow. Contract should have been done before the season. My fear is they are gonna make the same mistake with Mitch. If he’s healthy he’s gonna go on a tear.

Reportedly that was the price all along, so "before the season" would have been irrelevant.

Yes, it's an overpayment, but probably the lowest of the four, and at least we have our two best players signed for a few years.

 

[myleafs]

Zero correlation between the two. No it can’t be. This is dumbest thing I’ve ever read. There are MANY athletes who are not good with the media who excel on the ice or on the field. It’s just really stupid that anyone thinks that media responses have anything to do with on ice situations. It literally doesn’t.

His constant defensive posture, his lack of responsibility and his over all entitled vibe make it very difficult to cheer for him but I would agree it probably has no effect re his play. Again, not sure why certain posters need to use language like dumbest and stupid to make a point about others opinions. Seems very insecure.

 

[myleafs]

I hope they don't trade him or sign him.

Keep us all twisting in the wind for as long as possible. That would be the most entertaining thing they could do. It will be a long boring summer without this mess to talk about.

And make no mistakes about it, this team is in a mess.

At some point they have to do what's right for the team and the fans. It's not about winning a Marner trade. It's about initiating a change in direction.

A culture shift while correcting both the payroll and roster imbalances.

Eight years later and the 1RHD and goaltending are STILL suspect. The same team, with the same problems, headed straight for the same results. Trading Marner would be the quickest and easiest way of fixing that mess they've created for themselves now wouldn't it.

I just don't want it to happen until trade deadline is all.

So naive

Wrong. Again I don’t get how you’re trying to convince me of this, when I live with my brother who literally worked in MLSE (and not some part time work position.) Was on the business ops side and interacted with Marner for 5 years on a daily basis?

I really do think fans are going to be shocked many years from now. I think there will be a documentary or a couple books that will come out on this leafs era. Marner isn’t the villain yall want him to be. His playoff production does make him the idea trade candidate. But all this personality bullshit is so way off base and not even remotely accurate.

jesus, enough with the I know better than you guys.

 

[francis246]

So naive


jesus, enough with the I know better than you guys.

Can never be enough.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Unless Marner is traded in the next month or two I would not expect a trade for him. The only way Marner is moved at the deadline is if the team is out of the playoffs. Otherwise I expect he is walked to UFA or resigned with limited trade protection and traded afterwards.

Trade Him! Trade Him! Trade Him!

 

[francis246]

Trade Him! Trade Him! Trade Him!

I’m open to it! Just gotta be a good hockey deal for us. I do think extending with limited or no trade protection then trading after might be the play, if possible.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think the two likely outcomes at this point are that Marner is signed before the season starts or, as you say, he signs well into the season after getting off to a hot start.

It will be absolutely disgusting if this is what happens but it's not unlikely at all. Unfortunately there are many fans gullible and unsophisticated enough to think that Marner getting a lot of assists in November justifies paying him as if he's a top10 player in the world and without having to fear any backlash from the fans, management can continue down this losing path.

If and when this happens, it'll just be further proof that this franchise has become and absolute joke. That is all.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I’m open to it! Just gotta be a good hockey deal for us. I do think extending with limited or no trade protection then trading after might be the play, if possible.

The problem is that he probably won't sign here for less that Nylander, which will make him almost impossible to trade for a reasonable return.

It might be better to let him try the UFA market, and discover that nobody will give him more than $10M.

 

[Captain Crunch]

and the sample size for this incredibly scientific conclusion? Yes, one team. Toronto.

Also... no team can win a cup with a player making over $10 million... oops, then Eichel did it.
Also... no team can win a cup with a goalie making over $10 million... oops, then Bob did it.

In terms of percentage of cap being taken up by the top four players, the 2015-16 Penguins had 45% of their cap in the top 4. The Leafs last year were just a touch higher than this. If you give Marner $12 million, and Tavares $5 million on their next contracts, with the expected 2025-26 cap of $92 million, they'll be below the 2015-16 Penguins.... does that suddenly mean that this is a winning formula?

Hmm, so they had ONE player making that and won. Then please tell me why the Leafs with this INCREDIBLY TALENTED core 4 haven't been able to do it with 4 forwards making over $10 million? It seems you like to prove what I'm saying is correct. Lol

So they had 4 FORWARDS taking up 45% of the cap? Please show me where you found this.

 

[ACC1224]

I’m open to it! Just gotta be a good hockey deal for us. I do think extending with limited or no trade protection then trading after might be the play, if possible.

Players of his caliber don't sign contracts without a full NMC.

 

[Fogelhund]

Hmm, so they had ONE player making that and won. Then please tell me why the Leafs with this INCREDIBLY TALENTED core 4 haven't been able to do it with 4 forwards making over $10 million? It seems you like to prove what I'm saying is correct. Lol

So they had 4 FORWARDS taking up 45% of the cap? Please show me where you found this.

Nah... that doesn't prove your point at all. It proves that such dogmatic claims don't work... until they do. Remember you can't win with a European Captain.. that was also true, until it wasn't.

Penguins is 4 players... Crosby, Malkin, Kessel and Letang.

Given these four forwards, will have a lower cap hit than the top 4 of the Penguins had in 14/15...and it would be true if you went Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Rielly too for that matter, if we want to be pedantic about it... do you honestly then believe that because their collective cap hits are a lower percentage of the cap of prior Cup winners, that then this is a winning team and formula?

 

[Shooter2x]

Game impact is being over looked when it comes to the cap space issues.

If you don't own a Marner, you can get equivalent impact through having multiple players a tier or 2 below him. 2 tiers below is actually pushing it.

However to meet this game impact, the total cap hit will most likely equal or exceed Marners cap hit.

So why try to re-invent the wheel when you already have that impact............

 

[Gary Nylund]

I’m open to it! Just gotta be a good hockey deal for us. I do think extending with limited or no trade protection then trading after might be the play, if possible.

There's no chance whatsoever that Marner agrees to this and it's a little bit weird to see this idea being floated by someone who claims to be so in tune with what's happening with the Leafs. You should know better.
.

Players of his caliber don't sign contracts without a full NMC.

Yep. People suggest this from time to time which is really bizarre. Marner will demand a full NMC, and he will also not be willing to take a penny less than what Nylander got, in fact I think it's safe to say he will insist on getting more. The only way Marner will agree to take less than Nylander is if nobody offers him 11.5. But we probably will and even if we don't, there will be at least one team (like Utah for example) that willing to pay him that much and for a team with no playoff aspirations, he'll even be worth it.

Marner turns into a wuss when the stakes are raised in the playoffs but other than that, he's fantastic!

Game impact is being over looked when it comes to the cap space issues.

If you don't own a Marner, you can get equivalent impact through having multiple players a tier or 2 below him.

However to meet this game impact, the total cap hit will most likely equal or exceed Marners cap hit.

So why try to re-invent the wheel when you already have that impact............

Except when the stakes are raised in the playoffs. Last two playoff series, Marner has has had so little impact that we'd have even been better off with someone like Luke Schenn instead.

 

[Nineteen67]

well hes not getting more than what Toronto can offer him... no one will pay him that unless its a shit team, trying to hit the floor and wants a star player.
Either wave, sign or sit.

He’s on a crap team now so I don’t think that will affect his decision

 

[Gary Nylund]

He’s on a crap team now so I don’t think that will affect his decision

We're not a crap team, more like middle of the pack. We're also not trying to "hit the floor".

 

[seanlinden]

Yes, because you keep making the huge mistake of assuming that it is intended as a serious valuation, while I have repeatedly told you that it isn't.

You have a particular assessment of his trade value. I probably have a different one, possibly higher. I'm sure Tre has a different one, as do likely every other GM.

All we know is that Tre considered moving him. We don't know who he talked to, or what they offered, or even if they offered anything. Tre said he didn't get an offer that worked for him, so he didn't make a trade. That's all we know.

Your screaming invectives at Tre for not doing what you think he should have done, without having any facts, is pointless.

Apparently so is my trying to explain this to you, so I'll stop.

The "facts" that he shouldn't have been offered $11.5m are well out there. They're out there in the form of countless contracts given to reasonably comparable players, all under $10m.

The "lack of backbone" of this management group (Dubas & Treliving) has been to take the approach of letting these guys walk all over them, because they've been unwilling to take 1 step back in order to take two steps forward.

 

[Enniskillen]

All these posters saying that Marner is a top scorer don’t actually believe that Marner will get more than 10 million at any another organization. Let him walk and see how his agent finds him this 11.5 contract. Just for sh.ts and giggles

 

[ACC1224]

All these posters saying that Marner is a top scorer don’t actually believe that Marner will get more than 10 million at any another organization. Let him walk and see how his agent finds him this 11.5 contract. Just for sh.ts and giggles

Grown ups don't operate that way.

 

[Enniskillen]

Grown ups don't operate that way.

Yeah, only ticket scalpers do lmao

 

[ACC1224]

Yeah, only ticket scalpers do lmao

Not catching the relevance, you're not making any sense.
Are you saying scalpers operate for shits and giggles? What does that have to do with the Leafs and your prior lame post?