Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[francis246]

Marner gets selke votes because he's a #1 penalty killer in Toronto.... which is unusual for a guy that also puts up ~100 points, and the voters, looking to fill out their ballots, go "oooooh" wow.

Not once has anyone seemingly considered that having Marner play the PK is at the very best, useless, and realistically, stupid. He's doing a job that should be done by a $1m player like Connor Dewar or Noah Gregor. The Leafs put him in harms way blocking shots; and it's not like he's an actual threat to score or create shorthanded offence. He had 1 shorthanded point all year.

As I've repeatedly mentioned in this thread, I don't neccessarily have a problem with him at $11m this year, making him the 12th highest paid player in the league. I think you can certainly make an arguement that he's the 12th best player in the league, or somewhere in that ballpark.

The problem is / was, when you sign a 22 year old player to a 6-year contract, it should not take until the last year of it for that deal to become "on par" with the rest of the league. The first year or two, overpaid sure. The last year or two, he should be substantially underpaid relative to his standing in the league.

That’s on the GM not the player. The GM is in charge of managing the cap and seeing those projections. Dubas has to have the foresight to know that the Market was not going to reset with the Marner contract. Could he have not picked up the phone and called Sakic and get a ball park for Rantanen lol. He just didn’t do enough research or enough work. Which is what we are gonna see/read about in this book. Which why I don’t understand alot of the Marner hate in terms of the contract. Dubas should shoulder about 95% of the blame for the contract. He overpaid Marner, who was an RFA with some leverage because he’s a good player but not a whole lot.

 

[seanlinden]

Again, you don't know.

Certainly he should have commanded a lot, but what if he didn't? What if the best offer was two 3rd round picks?

Would you trade you second best player for that?

All you are doing is guessing based on no evidence. Which is your prerogative, but at least admit that this is what you are doing

You keep coming back to this point.... it's just not realistic. You don't need to know exactly what the offers were to know that a 40-goal scorer making $7m with 1 year left and limited to no trade protection is going to hold immense value; even if it may not be the exact "type" of value you need

The offer(s) were probably comprised of first round picks, prospects, maybe young NHL players, maybe having to take a little bit of money back.

The problem almost certainly was, that there wasn't the "one for one" right shot defenceman available that would have allowed the Leafs to improve immediately in the trade (given how underpaid Nylander was in the last year of his deal); and Treliving didn't want to make a move that might have been a step back.

That being said, if in the highly unrealistic scenario that was all you could get, then treat him as an "own rental", and make it abundantly clear that you're no longer negotiating and he can walk as a UFA.... not pay him $2m more than his comparables on other teams, just because he got paid less than Marner for the last 5 years.

 

[francis246]

I hope they don't trade him or sign him.

Keep us all twisting in the wind for as long as possible. That would be the most entertaining thing they could do. It will be a long boring summer without this mess to talk about.

And make no mistakes about it, this team is in a mess.

At some point they have to do what's right for the team and the fans. It's not about winning a Marner trade. It's about initiating a change in direction.

A culture shift while correcting both the payroll and roster imbalances.

Eight years later and the 1RHD and goaltending are STILL suspect. The same team, with the same problems, headed straight for the same results. Trading Marner would be the quickest and easiest way of fixing that mess they've created for themselves now wouldn't it.

I just don't want it to happen until trade deadline is all.

Unless Marner is traded in the next month or two I would not expect a trade for him. The only way Marner is moved at the deadline is if the team is out of the playoffs. Otherwise I expect he is walked to UFA or resigned with limited trade protection and traded afterwards.

 

[Mess]

I hope they don't trade him or sign him.

Keep us all twisting in the wind for as long as possible. That would be the most entertaining thing they could do. It will be a long boring summer without this mess to talk about.

And make no mistakes about it, this team is in a mess.

At some point they have to do what's right for the team and the fans. It's not about winning a Marner trade. It's about initiating a change in direction.

A culture shift while correcting both the payroll and roster imbalances.

Eight years later and the 1RHD and goaltending are STILL suspect. The same team, with the same problems, headed straight for the same results. Trading Marner would be the quickest and easiest way of fixing that mess they've created for themselves now wouldn't it.

I just don't want it to happen until trade deadline is all.

This Mess is on board with cleaning up that mess you describe.

 

[Madap]

You’re free to believe whatever you want, I just know you’re wrong on this one. Marner is pretty sensitive to the media at the moment but he’s not a sensitive guy in general. My brother had daily interactions with all the guys while working in MLSE and he said the leafs were always a fun easy going, layed back group. Muzzin, Kapanen, Nylander and Marner were the easiest to talk to. I used to say the same thing at home. “Why is Marner so sensitive or why is Matthews a dick”. Was always told they are nothing like they are portrayed.

The one thing I’m grateful my brother taught me is that the media/social media perspective of athletes/coaches/GM’s is usually wrong 90% of the time and even more so in hockey. Hockey players are just more protective of their personalities for whatever reason. He said the only person people have been right about is Babcock. That guy was just a dick to just about everyone who worked in MLSE lol.

I mean, I used Marner as an example but my comment was much more general than that. What we see on the ice from these guys is very similar to how they act off the ice.

Marner - disappears in big games because he can’t handle the pressure, while also not being able to properly handle the media in difficult situations.

Nylander - extremely non-chalant with the media, and often gets accused of not giving a shit or working hard enough on the ice. To a lesser extent the same with Matthews and Tavares.

What about the stars on other teams?

Draisaitl - pissy with the media after tough losses and very clearly pissy on the ice too, often doing dirty shit when he’s frustrated.

Marchand/Tkachuk - rats on the ice and pretty similar in their media presence too. Always willing to cause shit off the ice with their comments.

I won’t sit here and pretend like you can know everything about a player just by their media presence, but it really should be obvious that a persons personality off the ice echoes what’s on the ice to a certain extent.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

You guys must understand that having an overpaid JT on your team in 2024 is still a once in a life time priviledge. You don't get to sign these guys in UFA when they're 27.

What I mean by this, is that you can clear up even 50 mil right now. I guarantee you that you won't fill up the cap space in any worthwhile ways. The players you want aren't coming. Bottom feeders that are close to the cap floor will remain bottom feeders until they get elite talent to carry their team. When they're ready to compete, guess what, they will have cap issues of their own and will need to get creative.

The Marners of the league stay. There will be enough cap space for depth. The lawn chair theory is 100% real. You just need to figure out the correct color that matches your decor so-to-speak.

Nylander is objectively the 3rd best of the 3.

If we lost Nylander, it would take years to a decade for us to have a forward that provides what he does for us. Imagine replacing Matthews and Marner too.

This place has gone completely insane with all this cap space talk.

 

[francis246]

The Leafs can't trade him as there's no team in the league that will meet Marner's ridiculous salary demands. He will play here next year and by doing so create an extremely toxic situation for the team.He'll get his wake up call in FA when there's no team that will be anywhere close to meeting his ask.


What? He was GREAT on that series winning OT goal!

How would the situation be toxic? I don’t think anyone in the leafs dressing room is begging Treliving to trade Mitch Marner. Fans aren’t going to boo him if he’s playing well.

The only place that will be toxic is Reddit and here. And guess what?! Both those places don’t matter in real life lol. You have the option to not visit those places.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You’re free to believe whatever you want, I just know you’re wrong on this one. Marner is pretty sensitive to the media at the moment but he’s not a sensitive guy in general. My brother had daily interactions with all the guys while working in MLSE and he said the leafs were always a fun easy going, layed back group. Muzzin, Kapanen, Nylander and Marner were the easiest to talk to. I used to say the same thing at home. “Why is Marner so sensitive or why is Matthews a dick”. Was always told they are nothing like they are portrayed.

The one thing I’m grateful my brother taught me is that the media/social media perspective of athletes/coaches/GM’s is usually wrong 90% of the time and even more so in hockey. Hockey players are just more protective of their personalities for whatever reason. He said the only person people have been right about is Babcock. That guy was just a dick to just about everyone who worked in MLSE lol.

When we see Marner talking to the media on TV, there's nothing being "portrayed", it's just Marner. He might be easy going and laid back with his teammates when there's no pressure, but when the pressure's on, he's sensitive, defensive, self-entitled, defiant, doesn't take responsibility etc.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Sure but why care about that?
That has nothing to do with his play on the ice.

No, you're right. My comment had nothing to do with his play on the ice. My apologies.

 

[francis246]

When we see Marner talking to the media on TV, there's nothing being "portrayed", it's just Marner. He might be easy going and laid back with his teammates when there's no pressure, but when the pressure's on, he's sensitive, defensive, self-entitled, defiant, doesn't take responsibility etc.

Wrong. Again I don’t get how you’re trying to convince me of this, when I live with my brother who literally worked in MLSE (and not some part time work position.) Was on the business ops side and interacted with Marner for 5 years on a daily basis?

I really do think fans are going to be shocked many years from now. I think there will be a documentary or a couple books that will come out on this leafs era. Marner isn’t the villain yall want him to be. His playoff production does make him the idea trade candidate. But all this personality bullshit is so way off base and not even remotely accurate.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Nylander is objectively the 3rd best of the 3.

If we lost Nylander, it would take years to a decade for us to have a forward that provides what he does for us. Imagine replacing Matthews and Marner too.

This place has gone completely insane with all this cap space talk.

We've never such a talented group of 3 forwards but if they never win in the playoffs, who cares?

Also, in recent years Nylander > Marner in the playoffs.

Wrong. Again I don’t get how you’re trying to convince me of this, when I live with my brother who literally worked in MLSE and worked with Marner for 5 years?

I'm not trying to convince you of anything, what are you trying to convince me of? Is that not Marner we see on TV addressing media? Are you saying it's not Marner but a hologram or something?

 

[seanlinden]

That’s on the GM not the player. The GM is in charge of managing the cap and seeing those projections. Dubas has to have the foresight to know that the Market was not going to reset with the Marner contract. Could he have not picked up the phone and called Sakic and get a ball park for Rantanen lol. He just didn’t do enough research or enough work. Which is what we are gonna see/read about in this book. Which why I don’t understand alot of the Marner hate in terms of the contract. Dubas should shoulder about 95% of the blame for the contract. He overpaid Marner, who was an RFA with some leverage because he’s a good player but not a whole lot.

Absolutely.... Dubas was an idiot for offering that deal to Marner.

However, the "desire to reset / set the market" amongst all these players does, to an extent, fall on them.

The problem now is, if you look at Marner today, he should fall into the Aho/Barzal/Point range of $9.5m or so. His contract will be a year older than Aho's (who started in 24-25), 2 years older than Barzal's (23-24), and 3 years older than Point's (22-23).

Let's say we take the average of those deals is $9.5m, using 2023-24 as the "benchmark" cap of $83.5m.

The projection for the 25-26 cap is $92m IIRC. That would make him a $10.47m player adjusting that $9.5m.

Even if Marner were willing to accept a $10.5m long term deal (I highly doubt it), the very basic problem/ reality is that the Leafs probably can't do it with having Matthews & Nylander already in place.

 

[Nineteen67]

The Leafs can't trade him as there's no team in the league that will meet Marner's ridiculous salary demands. He will play here next year and by doing so create an extremely toxic situation for the team. He'll get his wake up call in FA when there's no team that will be anywhere close to meeting his ask.


What? He was GREAT on that series winning OT goal!

I don’t know what his demands are, but I guarantee you he will get a raise. Term probably won’t be he’d demand from the Leafs but the AAV will up there.

 

[francis246]

Absolutely.... Dubas was an idiot for offering that deal to Marner.

However, the "desire to reset / set the market" amongst all these players does, to an extent, fall on them.

For sure Marner and Matthews were def trying to reset the RFA market. But as we alluded to, it’s on the GM to basically say, “that’s cute, but it’s not happening here.” It suck’s but Dubas’ inexperience got the better of him. It just makes you wonder what the hell was Shanny doing during that time as president. Either he is incompetent or he was really as hands off as he said he was. I’m going to go with the later and I’m thinking that the relationship between Dubas and Shanny got worse after those contracts because Shanny probably had to intervene more

 

[Nineteen67]

I mean, I used Marner as an example but my comment was much more general than that. What we see on the ice from these guys is very similar to how they act off the ice.

Marner - disappears in big games because he can’t handle the pressure, while also not being able to properly handle the media in difficult situations.

Nylander - extremely non-chalant with the media, and often gets accused of not giving a shit or working hard enough on the ice. To a lesser extent the same with Matthews and Tavares.

What about the stars on other teams?

Draisaitl - pissy with the media after tough losses and very clearly pissy on the ice too, often doing dirty shit when he’s frustrated.

Marchand/Tkachuk - rats on the ice and pretty similar in their media presence too. Always willing to cause shit off the ice with their comments.

I won’t sit here and pretend like you can know everything about a player just by their media presence, but it really should be obvious that a persons personality off the ice echoes what’s on the ice to a certain extent.

Look up Stamkos’ intro to Nashville PC and you’ll see a leader and a professional. I noticed a real contrast compared to the Leafs 3. Tavares is classy, a model person, and a hard worker, but he’s not great with the media.

 

[seanlinden]

For sure Marner and Matthews were def trying to reset the RFA market. But as we alluded to, it’s on the GM to basically say, “that’s cute, but it’s not happening here.” It suck’s but Dubas’ inexperience got the better of him. It just makes you wonder what the hell was Shanny doing during that time as president. Either he is incompetent or he was really as hands off as he said he was. I’m going to go with the later and I’m thinking that the relationship between Dubas and Shanny got worse after those contracts because Shanny probably had to intervene more

100% agree. Dubas didn't have the backbone to do it, and then the replacement failed to do so as well.

All back to the very basic point... which is principled management and holding firm on the privilige it is to play for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Tampa had done it successfully for years, well before they won cups.

 

[francis246]

100% agree. Dubas didn't have the backbone to do it, and then the replacement failed to do so as well.

All back to the very basic point... which is principled management and holding firm on the privilige it is to play for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Tampa had done it successfully for years, well before they won cups.

Nylander at 11.5 is gonna be tough to swollow. Contract should have been done before the season. My fear is they are gonna make the same mistake with Mitch. If he’s healthy he’s gonna go on a tear.

 

[Captain Crunch]

That's an incorrect conclusion. It wouldn't matter if these guys were making less, and we had more cap room. What it has proven is THESE players don't raise their game in the playoffs. When your best players aren't the best players on the ice, you aren't going to win, no matter what they are paid. It doesn't matter who the support players are, who the depth are and so on... these highly paid players, either become winners and put the team on their backs when it counts, or this team will never win.... that's true if we move Marner out, and only have two forwards making as much as they do. Teams win and die by their leaders, and best players... and ours aren't good enough when it counts.

I guess we will agree to disagree then. No team has ever done it, and I believe never will (in terms of percentage of cap space being taken up). Also, I have pointed out countless times that these 4 players are the ones responsible for never having gotten it done, and that changes had to be made with this core.

 

[egd27]

Amazing how dubas managed to get involved on 33 percent of these contracts, club destroyer lol

42% if you include his "involvement" with Karlsson

 

[seanlinden]

Nylander at 11.5 is gonna be tough to swollow. Contract should have been done before the season. My fear is they are gonna make the same mistake with Mitch. If he’s healthy he’s gonna go on a tear.

Yup.

Practically speaking, Nylander sets the floor for Marner's negotiation with the Leafs... which is why he needs to go.

When a player "requires" more money from your team, than he'd be likely to get on the open market from a good team, it's simply a situation where you must recognize that this player on that contract is prohibitive to winning.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Hell I can name 3 or 4

Me too!

 

[joepeps]

I don’t know what his demands are, but I guarantee you he will get a raise. Term probably won’t be he’d demand from the Leafs but the AAV will up there.

well hes not getting more than what Toronto can offer him... no one will pay him that unless its a shit team, trying to hit the floor and wants a star player.
Either wave, sign or sit.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Top 10 goal scorer since 2016-17 with very few teams with the cap space to take on $11 mil... Skinner was told that he would have the chance to play with Marner and Matthews, Chief said he was looking forward to coaching Marner, Marners agent said they are going to play out the contract. Even to the most daft person would understand that, sure does not sound like a player who is going to get moved... the people in the know are saying he is going nowhere without saying he is going nowhere.. the people who need clicks are saying he is...it's not Rocket surgery.

All of that, particularly his agent saying (in effect) that he won't waive, indicate that he won't be traded.

None of that is an indication that he was never on the market.

The only person who would know whether or not he was on the market would be Tre, and any other GM he discussed it with.

 

[ACC1224]

Nylander at 11.5 is gonna be tough to swollow. Contract should have been done before the season. My fear is they are gonna make the same mistake with Mitch. If he’s healthy he’s gonna go on a tear.

Overpaying Nylander instead of moving him will not age well. He's an excellent 3rd wheel, but needed to be paid like one.

 

[Evilhomer]

Nylander at 11.5 is gonna be tough to swollow. Contract should have been done before the season. My fear is they are gonna make the same mistake with Mitch. If he’s healthy he’s gonna go on a tear.

I think the two likely outcomes at this point are that Marner is signed before the season starts or, as you say, he signs well into the season after getting off to a hot start.