(Again, apologies for another long-winded post; feel free to skip/ignore, obviously! Thanks in advance to anyone who bothers to read it)
I think there’s been a lot of hyperbole on both sides of the Marner debate in this thread and others, but, I’ve been particularly gobsmacked by some of the statements from his more ardent supporters recently and thought I’d try a bit of a deeper dive into his playoff performance. Full disclosure – I soured on Marner years ago initially due to the contract but subsequently due to what I see as his softness and his failure to deliver when it matters in the playoffs. I respect the fact we can’t all agree, of course, but I get curious that I must be missing something when I see some of the following opinions about Playoff Marner: not only is Marner one of our ‘highest producing’ and ‘best playoff performers’, he is actually ‘one of the best in the league’ or even ‘one of the best players in the world’ in the playoffs. Just to reiterate, these are actually statements made here not about Regular Season Marner but about Playoff Marner.
I had some time to kill this week, so I decided to go back and try to see if I could analyse Marner’s contributions to winning games in the playoffs. I’m sure there are many flaws and imperfections in this approach, but, for what it’s worth, here are my findings, hopefully presented in a way that is relatively easy to digest and consider:
Key: Game Winning Points/Goals: GWP/GWG
| Wins (Score) | GWP | GWG Scorer | Marner stats |
| Boston 2024 | | | |
| Game 3 (3-2) | 0 | Matthews | 0 points |
| Game 5 (2-1) | 0 | Knies OT | 1 primary assist |
| Game 6 (2-1) | 0 | Nylander | 0 points |
| Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 7 clinching loss; 1 goal and 2 primary assists for 3 points total; 0 points in 3 of 7 games; 1 point in 3 wins and 2 points in losses | | | |
| Florida 2023 | | | |
| Game 4 (2-1) | 1 | Marner | 1 goal, 1 secondary assist |
| Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 5 clinching loss; 1 goal, 1 primary assist, 1 secondary assist for 3 points total; 0 points in 3 of 5 games; 2 points in 1 win and 1 point in 4 losses | | | |
| Tampa 2023 | | | |
| Game 2 (7-2) | 0 | Nylander | 2 goals, 1 primary assist |
| Game 3 (4-3) | 0 | Rielly OT | 1 primary and 1 secondary assist |
| Game 4 (5-4) | 0 | Kerfoot OT | 2 primary assists |
| Game 6 (2-1) | 0 | Tavares OT | 0 points |
| Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 6 clinching win; 3 goals, 4 primary assists and 4 secondary assists for 11 points total; 0 points in 1 of 6 games; 7 points in 4 wins and 4 points in 2 losses | | | |
| Tampa 2022 | | | |
| Game 1 (5-0) | 0 | Muzzin | 1 goal, 2 primary assists |
| Game 3 (5-2) | 0 | Kampf | 1 secondary assist |
| Game 5 (4-3) | 1 | Matthews | 1 primary assist |
| Marner series summary: 1 secondary assist in Game 7 clinching loss; 2 goals, 4 primary assists, 2 secondary assists for 8 points total; 0 points in 2 of 7 games; 5 points in 3 wins and 3 points in 4 losses | | | |
| Montreal 2021 | | | |
| Game 2 (5-1) | 1 | Matthews | 1 primary assist, 1 secondary assist |
| Game 3 (2-1) | 1 | Rielly | 1 secondary assist |
| Game 5 (4-0) | 0 | Nylander | 0 points |
| Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 7 clinching loss; 0 goals, 2 primary assists and 2 secondary assists for 4 points total; 0 points in 4 of 7 games; 3 points in 3 wins and 1 point in 4 losses; 2 delay of game penalties | | | |
| Columbus 2020 | | | |
| Game 2 (3-0) | 0 | Matthews | 0 points |
| Game 4 (4-3) | 1 | Matthews OT | 3 secondary assists |
| Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 5 clinching loss; 0 goals, 1 primary assist and 3 secondary assists for 4 points total; 0 points in 3 of 5 games; 3 points in 2 wins and 1 point in 3 losses | | | |
| Boston 2019 | | | |
| Game 1 (4-1) | 1 | Marner | 2 goals |
| Game 3 (3-2) | 0 | Johnsson | 1 secondary assist |
| Game 5 (2-1) | 0 | Kapanen | 0 points |
| Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 7 clinching loss; 2 goals, 1 primary assist and 1 secondary assist for 4 points total; 0 points in 4 of 7 games; 3 points in 3 wins and 1 point in 4 losses | | | |
| Boston 2018 | | | |
| Game 3 (4-2) | 0 | Matthews | 2 primary assists |
| Game 5 (4-3) | 1 | Van Riemsdyk | 1 primary assist |
| Game 6 (3-1) | 1 | Marner | 1 goal, 1 primary assist |
| Marner series summary: 1 primary assist in Game 7 clinching loss; 2 goals, 5 primary assists and 2 secondary assists for 9 points total; 0 points in 1 of 7 games; 5 points in 3 wins and 4 points in 4 losses | | | |
| Washington 2017 | | | |
| Game 2 (4-3) | 0 | Kapanen | 1 primary assist |
| Game 3 (4-3) | 0 | Bozak | 0 points |
| Marner series summary: 0 points in Game 6 clinching loss; 1 goal, 2 primary assists and one secondary assist for 4 points total; 0 points in 3 of 6 games; 1 point in 2 wins and 3 points in 4 losses | | | |
As I said, I’m sure there are things to pick apart here in the methodology and I welcome critiques and criticisms. For example, the whole GWP/GWG thing can be seen as a bit arbitrary, as we know, and this might be most glaring in the 2023 series against Tampa (our only win, as we’re all painfully aware): Marner had 11 points in 6 games, which is obviously good. Despite this, he had no GWP in 2023, which would seem to understate his contributions to winning games. However, it’s important, I think, to point out he had no assists on the three OT winners. I would argue that sudden death OT winners are less arbitrary as measures of winning games.
For me, the most telling statistics are Marner’s numbers in deciding games. In 9 series-deciding games, Marner has one primary assist and one secondary assist, both in losses. That’s 7 deciding games with zero points. They’ve lost all five loser-goes-home games and, when it matters most, Marner has mustered two assists.
So, is he one of the best in the world in the playoffs? I wish it was true, but I can’t see how he’s even one of the best on our team, at least in the post-season.
Again, thanks for reading.
PS: Apologies for not including Expected stats in my analysis, so happy for any experts to show how these actually prove Marner to be clutch.
