Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[Nineteen67]

We're not a crap team, more like middle of the pack. We're also not trying to "hit the floor".

Historically one of the crappiest orgs in the NHL.

 

[Nineteen67]

The problem is that he probably won't sign here for less that Nylander, which will make him almost impossible to trade for a reasonable return.

It might be better to let him try the UFA market, and discover that nobody will give him more than $10M.

I would say there are only 32 teams in all of the NHL that would pay him more than 10 million if they could.

 

[francis246]

Players of his caliber don't sign contracts without a full NMC.

Rantanen has a modified NTC, has to provide a list of 9 teams.

Brayden Point has a modified NMC 10 team list.

Aho, full no movement in years 1-7, 15 team list in year 8.

David Pastrnak has a modified no trade clause where he has to submit a list of 9 teams in year 6 and ten teams in year 7. There’s way you can get creative about it. So it’s not impossible. I’m sure there are other examples, I’m just too lazy to search right now. Enjoying my summer not working haha. Just depends on how much Marner is willing to conceded in the contract negotiations.

 

[ACC1224]

Rantanen has a modified NTC, has to provide a list of 9 teams.

Brayden Point has a modified NMC 10 team list.

Aho, full no movement in years 1-7, 15 team list in year 8.

David Pastrnak has a modified no trade clause where he has to submit a list of 9 teams in year 6 and ten teams in year 7. There’s way you can get creative about it. So it’s not impossible. I’m sure there are other examples, I’m just too lazy to search right now. Enjoying my summer not working haha. Just depends on how much Marner is willing to conceded in the contract negotiations.

What did Nylander get?

 

[notDatsyuk]

I would say there are only 32 teams in all of the NHL that would pay him more than 10 million if they could.

"If they could"? As in "if there was no cap"? If we were allowed to spend $200M then I could see a rich team doing it.

But with the cap constraint, I would say there are a lot fewer than 32 teams that would give him that much.

Just different opinions, and we'll have to wait and see, and we may never know.

Of course there's no way of proving it either way - if nobody does, that doesn't mean nobody would if they could, and if one team does it doesn't mean every team would.

 

[francis246]

What did Nylander get?

Nylander got Full NMC unfortunately. But I believe Nylander got that because of how much he sacrificed in the last negotiations. Don’t think he was conceding anything this go around.

Here in lies the problem, they have all three of these guys everything last time. Now it feels like you’re taking away when really as a GM you’re just better trying to posture yourself. I don’t know how they can win a Marner deal unless he stays inbetween 10.93 and 11.5 on an 8-year deal

 

[sxvnert]

All these posters saying that Marner is a top scorer don’t actually believe that Marner will get more than 10 million at any another organization. Let him walk and see how his agent finds him this 11.5 contract. Just for sh.ts and giggles

He'll easily get 11-12m @ 7, maybe less in a low tax state but who gives a f***. Put that cap to better use.

 

[Confucius]

Absolutely.... Dubas was an idiot for offering that deal to Marner.

However, the "desire to reset / set the market" amongst all these players does, to an extent, fall on them.

The problem now is, if you look at Marner today, he should fall into the Aho/Barzal/Point range of $9.5m or so. His contract will be a year older than Aho's (who started in 24-25), 2 years older than Barzal's (23-24), and 3 years older than Point's (22-23).

Let's say we take the average of those deals is $9.5m, using 2023-24 as the "benchmark" cap of $83.5m.

The projection for the 25-26 cap is $92m IIRC. That would make him a $10.47m player adjusting that $9.5m.

Even if Marner were willing to accept a $10.5m long term deal (I highly doubt it), the very basic problem/ reality is that the Leafs probably can't do it with having Matthews & Nylander already in place.

Well he won’t take 10.5 but 11 yes so close enough. Of course we can be successful with 3 guys making double digits, other teams can only wish to have 3.

Anyway the cap in 25/26 will be much higher than it was in 22/23 where we had 3 guys making double digits. We went to game 7 and Losing in the 1st round wasn’t as dismal as it seemed. 4 of the last five finalists were teams that have beaten us. So it’s not like we had no chance of getting there. It really comes down to when you face a great team, and we almost always do in round one.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Well he won’t take 10.5 but 11 yes so close enough. Of course we can be successful with 3 guys making double digits, other teams can only wish to have 3.

Anyway the cap in 25/26 will be much higher than it was in 22/23 where we had 3 guys making double digits. We went to game 7 and Losing in the 1st round wasn’t as dismal as it seemed. 4 of the last five finalists were teams that have beaten us. So it’s not like we had no chance of getting there. It really comes down to when you face a great team, and we almost always do in round one.

And yet another finished product rolls off the conveyor belt from the excuse manufacturing plant. The product may be defective, but that doesn't seem to matter to those addicted to the brand.

 

[Mess]

Well he won’t take 10.5 but 11 yes so close enough. Of course we can be successful with 3 guys making double digits, other teams can only wish to have 3.

The new Salary Cap went up +$5 mil to $88 mil and Leafs have 4 of the top 12 Highest AAV contracts contemplating giving Marner a raise while the other 31 teams have 8 of the top 12 combined.

Since the Salary Cap was instituted in 2004 the Leafs are the LEAST successful team in the NHL in regards to playoff games where 5 playoff games in a single season the team high in past 20 years.

You believe other teams are wishing to be in Leafs position and spending >1/2 their entire Salary Cap $ on 4 forwards?

 

[seanlinden]

Well he won’t take 10.5 but 11 yes so close enough. Of course we can be successful with 3 guys making double digits, other teams can only wish to have 3.

Anyway the cap in 25/26 will be much higher than it was in 22/23 where we had 3 guys making double digits. We went to game 7 and Losing in the 1st round wasn’t as dismal as it seemed. 4 of the last five finalists were teams that have beaten us. So it’s not like we had no chance of getting there. It really comes down to when you face a great team, and we almost always do in round one.

Not sure if you're being sarcastic or not... but I'm fairly certain only 1 team has won a cup with a $10m player, nad they had 1 of them.

With the cap rising, and more $10m players in the league, you can certainly argue that will change... but having 3 of them, all $11m or more, and all forwards, seems extremely foolish.

Also, not sure why Marner magically gets $11m if his comparables are $10.5m (adjusted for inflation) -- that attitude seems to be part of the problem. When negotiating, you need to look around the league and be at the very most, on par with your comparables, and ideally, under given the benefits of playing for Toronto.

 

[seanlinden]

Players of his caliber don't sign contracts without a full NMC.

Honestly, the concept of giving ANYONE full no-move protection for 8 years is assine.

As another poster mentioned, Boston didn't do it with Pasta, nor Tampa with Point.

Want to give him a full NMC in the early years? sure, I can see that. But the player has to have some accountability to his performance and/or some ability for the team to move him as the years go on.

Maybe it's a full NTC where he can still be placed on waivers. That ensures that the team will never be able to "garner a return" other than his cap space... or maybe it's a modified NMC where there's a list of teams.... so that the player never has to fear being dumped to the worst team in the league.

 

[Nineteen67]

"If they could"? As in "if there was no cap"? If we were allowed to spend $200M then I could see a rich team doing it.

But with the cap constraint, I would say there are a lot fewer than 32 teams that would give him that much.

Just different opinions, and we'll have to wait and see, and we may never know.

Of course there's no way of proving it either way - if nobody does, that doesn't mean nobody would if they could, and if one team does it doesn't mean every team would.

If they’re given an opportunity and can make it fit.

 

[egd27]

In terms of percentage of cap being taken up by the top four players, the 2015-16 Penguins had 45% of their cap in the top 4.

2 Centres, 1 Dman, and 1 Goalie for the Pens .....correct?

 

[Enniskillen]

Not catching the relevance, you're not making any sense.
Are you saying scalpers operate for shits and giggles? What does that have to do with the Leafs and your prior lame post?

Lol, for you it’s an adult business, for the rest of us it’s just sh.ts and giggles. Leafs is a pure entertainment, but players like mitch impede fun. Grown ups lmao, how old are you, 75?

 

[notDatsyuk]

If they’re given an opportunity and can make it fit.

Thanks for the clarification.

In that case, I don't think 32 teams would do it, but it just means we have different opinions.

We'll have to wait and (maybe) see.

 

[Nineteen67]

Thanks for the clarification.

In that case, I don't think 32 teams would do it, but it just means we have different opinions.

We'll have to wait and (maybe) see.

Do you actually think there are teams that wouldn’t want Marner if the situation was right for them to sign him? If he becomes a FA every GM in the league will explore their options. It’ll be a quick process for some, but they’ll think about it.

 

[Antropovsky]

Well said. It’s amazing the icetime marner gets and the talent he plays with and the production is horrendous in the playoffs. Marner is so petrified of contact when it’s ramped up in the playoffs, stats indicate marner shoots the puck 10 feet further than the reg season. It’s why his goal totals are almost zilch. Not many goalies are letting in 40 foot muffin shots in the playoffs. If treliving gives marner the nylander contract, he and the entire leafs organization will regret it. Marner is not a $11-12 million dollar player in the playoffs, he never will be. He wants the big bonus on July 1, he wants the no trade, he wants all the icetime, he wants a coach that won’t criticize his fragile ego, and yet he can’t even atleast try and get to the dirty areas where playoff goals happen. Screw him and screw the leafs. The entire franchise is a joke, MLSE all the way down

2020-2022 - 3 seasons of stats

Tavares 5vs5 points per 60 with linemate:

Tavares w/Marner - 1.79 -700 min

Tavares w/Nylander - 2.08- 1500min

Tavares w/Kerfoot - 2.3 - 1000 min

Tavares w/Hyman - 2.16 - 450 min

Tavares w/Mikheyev - 1.73-450 min

Just wanna show how Marner boosting players stats appears to be phony news.

If he's out there boosting linemates stats, shouldn't we see Tavares stats be the best with him and not among the lowest?

 

[ErnieLeafs]

Lol, for you it’s an adult business, for the rest of us it’s just sh.ts and giggles. Leafs is a pure entertainment, but players like mitch impede fun. Grown ups lmao, how old are you, 75?

The poster you're replying to sells tickets at face, or barely over, and gets people in seats to Leafs games that otherwise can't afford to buy from Ticketmaster or StubHub. You wanna go after profiteers, he's not the one. You can't get a single seat to a game for what he sells a pair for, on the vast majority of nights.

What a weird, irrelevant point to make

 

[Antropovsky]

More examples of Marner stat boosting power. This time for Matthews vs other linemates

Season 2023 and 2024- 2 seasons of data.

Matthews 5vs5 points per 60 with linemate:

Matthews w/Marner - 2.43 1200min
Matthews w/Nylander - 3.25 775min
Matthews w/Bunting- 2.93 735 min
Matthews w/Bertuzzi - 3.35 322 min
Matthews w/Jarnkok- 2.78- 450 min
Matthews w/Domi - 4.93 206 mins

 

[57 Years No Cup]

How would the situation be toxic? I don’t think anyone in the leafs dressing room is begging Treliving to trade Mitch Marner. Fans aren’t going to boo him if he’s playing well.

The only place that will be toxic is Reddit and here. And guess what?! Both those places don’t matter in real life lol. You have the option to not visit those places.

Toxic for Marner and thus, the team. Marner has a Social Media Defense Team FFS. He's obviously way too sensitive.

I know you're smarter than this.

Wrong. Again I don’t get how you’re trying to convince me of this, when I live with my brother who literally worked in MLSE (and not some part time work position.) Was on the business ops side and interacted with Marner for 5 years on a daily basis?

I really do think fans are going to be shocked many years from now. I think there will be a documentary or a couple books that will come out on this leafs era. Marner isn’t the villain yall want him to be. His playoff production does make him the idea trade candidate. But all this personality bullshit is so way off base and not even remotely accurate.

So you admit you know him personally and are thus biased?

 

[Antropovsky]

Rantanen has a modified NTC, has to provide a list of 9 teams.

Brayden Point has a modified NMC 10 team list.

Aho, full no movement in years 1-7, 15 team list in year 8.

David Pastrnak has a modified no trade clause where he has to submit a list of 9 teams in year 6 and ten teams in year 7. There’s way you can get creative about it. So it’s not impossible. I’m sure there are other examples, I’m just too lazy to search right now. Enjoying my summer not working haha. Just depends on how much Marner is willing to conceded in the contract negotiations.

Barkov doesn't have a nmc in last couple years of his deal.

Yup Dubas did the reverse, he gave the NMC at the end of their deals to the core 4. Effectively giving the players all the leverage going into UFA.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

The problem is that he probably won't sign here for less that Nylander, which will make him almost impossible to trade for a reasonable return.

It might be better to let him try the UFA market, and discover that nobody will give him more than $10M.

Exactly what's gonna happen. In the meantime, I hope Marner enjoys his year of misery in Toronto. The team sure won't like the limelight of this controversy.

 

[abj]

Marner should move new possibilities to play better.

 

[Superstar]

Exactly what's gonna happen. In the meantime, I hope Marner enjoys his year of misery in Toronto. The team sure won't like the limelight of this controversy.

To think Marner wants 50% more money than Sam Reinhart, and 40% more money than Jake Guentzel, on his new deal is a big laugh out loud. He is truly delusional.