Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[Superstar]

Barkov doesn't have a nmc in last couple years of his deal.

Yup Dubas did the reverse, he gave the NMC at the end of their deals to the core 4. Effectively giving the players all the leverage going into UFA.

Ssshhh, you might upset Dubas supporters lurking in the shadows around here who still thinks he's amazing, and not the big failure of a GM that he is.

 

[PromisedLand]

Priority shouldn't be to re-sign marner. Priority should be to get 2C, another solid D, some 40 to 50 point wingers who can also chip-in in the playoffs and are not afraid of board work and going to the net; and potentially a goalie if Woll doesn't pan out

And MOVE FORWARD

The Stockholm syndrome has to end! Enough is enough already!

 

[ACC1224]

To think Marner wants 50% more money than Sam Reinhart, and 40% more money than Jake Guentzel, on his new deal is a big laugh out loud. He is truly delusional.

More garbage.
When has he asked for these things?

 

[Superstar]

More garbage.
When has he asked for these things?

Pretending, eh? Do the math yourself...more money than Willy, closer to Matthews...$100 million contract...$12 million plus AAV...the numbers are floating around out there.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Nah... that doesn't prove your point at all. It proves that such dogmatic claims don't work... until they do. Remember you can't win with a European Captain.. that was also true, until it wasn't.

Penguins is 4 players... Crosby, Malkin, Kessel and Letang.

Given these four forwards, will have a lower cap hit than the top 4 of the Penguins had in 14/15...and it would be true if you went Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Rielly too for that matter, if we want to be pedantic about it... do you honestly then believe that because their collective cap hits are a lower percentage of the cap of prior Cup winners, that then this is a winning team and formula?

So again, please tell me who that 4th forward was for the Pens who helped take up that much cap space! I never once said no team could win with 4 players taking up that much cap space, I have actually said a team could, but at least one would have to be a top 2 dman. Maybe go back and reread all my posts regarding this. Lol

 

[notbias]

The new Salary Cap went up +$5 mil to $88 mil and Leafs have 4 of the top 12 Highest AAV contracts contemplating giving Marner a raise while the other 31 teams have 8 of the top 12 combined.

View attachment 895566

Since the Salary Cap was instituted in 2004 the Leafs are the LEAST successful team in the NHL in regards to playoff games where 5 playoff games in a single season the team high in past 20 years.

You believe other teams are wishing to be in Leafs position and spending >1/2 their entire Salary Cap $ on 4 forwards?

Shouldn't you be complaining about Dubas in this post somehow for Treliving signing the Nylander and Matthews contract?

 

[notbias]

Barkov doesn't have a nmc in last couple years of his deal.

Yup Dubas did the reverse, he gave the NMC at the end of their deals to the core 4. Effectively giving the players all the leverage going into UFA.

Barkov wasn't the same Barkov at the time... McDavid, Eichel, Pastrnak, Tkachuk, Kaprizov, Draisaitl, and more all had/have NMCs entering free agency, this isn't unique.

The bad NMCs are when the player is 34, injured all the time, and signed for 6 years... those are stupid.

Signing a player in their prime with an NMC is not as big of a concern.

Ideally, you never sign anyone to an NMC, but that is not how things work.

 

[Tie Domi Esquire]

Everything the Leafs do is great and it's merely a coincidence that they lose to everyone!

 

[Racer88]

Me too!

Ya, I just read 3 pages of them. Lol

and the sample size for this incredibly scientific conclusion? Yes, one team. Toronto.

Also... no team can win a cup with a player making over $10 million... oops, then Eichel did it.
Also... no team can win a cup with a goalie making over $10 million... oops, then Bob did it.

In terms of percentage of cap being taken up by the top four players, the 2015-16 Penguins had 45% of their cap in the top 4. The Leafs last year were just a touch higher than this. If you give Marner $12 million, and Tavares $5 million on their next contracts, with the expected 2025-26 cap of $92 million, they'll be below the 2015-16 Penguins.... does that suddenly mean that this is a winning formula?

Was the Penguins 45% in for forwards

 

[Racer88]

Everything the Leafs do is great and it's merely a coincidence that they lose to everyone!

No, havnt you heard it’s just bad luck, Covid, goalied or injured

 

[notDatsyuk]

Do you actually think there are teams that wouldn’t want Marner if the situation was right for them to sign him? If he becomes a FA every GM in the league will explore their options. It’ll be a quick process for some, but they’ll think about it.

I didn't say they wouldn't think about it, as that is every GMs job.

Hows many would seriously offer him more than $10M per year?

You say 32. I say a lot fewer. OK, we have different opinions.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Barkov doesn't have a nmc in last couple years of his deal.

Yup Dubas did the reverse, he gave the NMC at the end of their deals to the core 4. Effectively giving the players all the leverage going into UFA.

There's a slight catch to that.

According to the CBA, a player can only have an NTC during his UFA years. The NTCs for Matty and Mitch presumably kicked in the moment they qualified for UFA status. Tavares had a full NMC for the entire contract, as he was already a UFA.

So Dubas effectively gave them a full NTC For the entire (eligible) duration of their contracts.

Willy only got a modified one, but I assume the rules are the same.

(I admit I don't recall all the fine details, but that's the basics.)

 

[notDatsyuk]

More garbage.
When has he asked for these things?

That's right - his reported ask of $12.5 is only 44.9% higher that Reinhart's, not 50%.

I wish people would get their facts straight.

 

[Superstar]

That's right - his reported ask of $12.5 is only 44.9% higher that Reinhart's, not 50%.

I wish people would get their facts straight.

My bad, I was off by 5.1%...

Perhaps Marner's annual July 1st bonus payout demands will only be 20% more than Reinhart's total annual salary.

 

[Superstar]

2020-2022 - 3 seasons of stats

Tavares 5vs5 points per 60 with linemate:

Tavares w/Marner - 1.79 -700 min

Tavares w/Nylander - 2.08- 1500min

Tavares w/Kerfoot - 2.3 - 1000 min

Tavares w/Hyman - 2.16 - 450 min

Tavares w/Mikheyev - 1.73-450 min

Just wanna show how Marner boosting players stats appears to be phony news.

If he's out there boosting linemates stats, shouldn't we see Tavares stats be the best with him and not among the lowest?

Even the year Tavares scored 47 goals as a Leaf, some were wetting themselves implying that it was all because of Marner...but if you look at Tavares' points total that year, he only had 88 points, which is only 2 points more than his highest point total playing with lesser talent with the Isles...however that 2014-15 year with the 86 points was deceptively low because league scoring was really low, as Tavares missed out on the Art Ross by 1 point to Jamie Benn...so those 86 points are a lot more impressive than the 88 points he had playing with Marner.

The year before Tavares joined the Leafs, he had 84 points with the Isles, and made Anders Lee a 40-goal goal-scorer...if Marner was so amazing, the year Tavares scored 47 goals, he should have been at around 100 points, not 88...when you look at Marner's goal total that year, you will see clearly why Tavares only had 88 points - it's because weakshot Marner only managed 26 goals that year, so Tavares missed out on many assists because Marner couldn't score more.

 

[Antropovsky]

Even the year Tavares scored 47 goals as a Leaf, some were wetting themselves implying that it was all because of Marner...but if you look at Tavares' points total that year, he only had 88 points, which is only 2 points more than his highest point total playing with lesser talent with the Isles...however that 2014-15 year with the 86 points was deceptively low because league scoring was really low, as Tavares missed out on the Art Ross by 1 point to Jamie Benn...so those 86 points are a lot more impressive than the 88 points he had playing with Marner.

The year before Tavares joined the Leafs, he had 84 points with the Isles, and made Anders Lee a 40-goal goal-scorer...if Marner was so amazing, the year Tavares scored 47 goals, he should have been at around 100 points, not 88...when you look at Marner's goal total that year, you will see clearly why Tavares only had 88 points - it's because weakshot Marner only managed 26 goals that year, so Tavares missed out on many assists because Marner couldn't score more.

100% Tavares was playing on adrenalin and was probably hungry for that Captaincy.

Certain Marner fans kept saying OMG look how Marner boosted Tavares to a career year!

Well what happened the three years that followed 2019? Marner had a 1.79 p/60 5v5 with Tavares over the next 3 seasons. That is abysmal for two 11 million players. Would put Marner 137th in the league in 5v5 p/60 in the entire league vs players over these past 2 seasons. Right next to Alex Newhook. Fortunately for Marner he gets big doses of mins with Matthews and on a pp with Nylander, Tavares and Matthews.

Here's another example of Marners supreme stat boosting ability.

2023 5v5 Matthews points per 60:
Matthews w/Marner
2.00 p/60 in 539 mins
Matthews w/Nylander:
3.38 p/60 In 504 mins

2024
Matthews w/Marner:
2.75 p/60
Matthews w/Nylander:
3.11 p/60
Matthews w/Domi:
4.93 p/60
Matthews w/Bertuzzi:
3.35 p/60

Quite literally the stats indicate Marner is dragging Matthews down. Additionally, very clearly Matthews boosts his linemates stats quite significantly.

So...

- Matthews boosts linemates stats significantly
- Matthews stats dip quite significantly playing with Marner

 

[leafs in five]

those are stats for the calendar years 2023 and 2024? or for 22/23 and 23/24?

 

[Nineteen67]

I didn't say they wouldn't think about it, as that is every GMs job.

Hows many would seriously offer him more than $10M per year?

You say 32. I say a lot fewer. OK, we have different opinions.

Yep, only 32 if they could make it fit.

 

[Captain Crunch]

But why would you need to get a forward that provides what he does? We’d only be walking back into the current ideology of the “core 4” and see where it’s gotten us?

Nylander could’ve been turned into a defencemen + winger.

Marner can be too, and Matthews could’ve been turned into a haul.

You don’t need this level of “talent” to win. I have 8 years of proof of that + all the teams who won without a core 4. Moreover, this talent is overrated, it always disappears when needed.

This isn’t a cap space problem, this is a player problem. These guys could each be making 1-1.5 million less than they currently are and unless the cap savings is spent on a player who is a ppg+ player it won’t matter. These guys cannot lead any team anywhere past the first round.

Matthews hasn’t shown the ability to consistently step up and play as the #1 option. He has more of a rantanen/point in him vs a Mackinnon/kucherov. He also almost always gets “injured” every year in the playoffs.

Marner hasn’t shown that he can be effective with his style of play. Standing around at the point and barely shooting is now how you win hockey games but Marner is going to try as hard as hell to make it work. Dude thinks he is Cale Makar mixed with Quinn Hughes

Nylander just isn’t good enough to change the course of a series. He’s a complimentary piece, he gives you a great second wave of attack after your big guys are working the opponent, but that doesn’t happen here

Tavares has been an ok 3C since joining us in the playoffs. He’s been an embarrassment in so many series’s it’s not funny. He’s been a 3/4C more times than he has been a 2C.

I think it's a combination of both. I'm still waiting to see a team win the Cup with 4 forwards taking up that much of the cap, plus I don't believe we can win the Cup with this core.

 

[thewave]

100% Tavares was playing on adrenalin and was probably hungry for that Captaincy.

Certain Marner fans kept saying OMG look how Marner boosted Tavares to a career year!

Well what happened the three years that followed 2019? Marner had a 1.79 p/60 5v5 with Tavares over the next 3 seasons. That is abysmal for two 11 million players. Would put Marner 137th in the league in 5v5 p/60 in the entire league vs players over these past 2 seasons. Right next to Alex Newhook. Fortunately for Marner he gets big doses of mins with Matthews and on a pp with Nylander, Tavares and Matthews.

Here's another example of Marners supreme stat boosting ability.

2023 5v5 Matthews points per 60:
Matthews w/Marner
2.00 p/60 in 539 mins
Matthews w/Nylander:
3.38 p/60 In 504 mins

2024
Matthews w/Marner:
2.75 p/60
Matthews w/Nylander:
3.11 p/60
Matthews w/Domi:
4.93 p/60
Matthews w/Bertuzzi:
3.35 p/60

Quite literally the stats indicate Marner is dragging Matthews down. Additionally, very clearly Matthews boosts his linemates stats quite significantly.

So...

- Matthews boosts linemates stats significantly
- Matthews stats dip quite significantly playing with Marner

How dare you bring stats to a stats fight.

I dont think the mighty mitch marner superfans care about those stats.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Game impact is being over looked when it comes to the cap space issues.

If you don't own a Marner, you can get equivalent impact through having multiple players a tier or 2 below him. 2 tiers below is actually pushing it.

However to meet this game impact, the total cap hit will most likely equal or exceed Marners cap hit.

So why try to re-invent the wheel when you already have that impact............

I believe it's because you can't do it by paying 4 forwards that much. At least one of them needs to be a top 2 dman.

 

[Confucius]

That's right - his reported ask of $12.5 is only 44.9% higher that Reinhart's, not 50%.

I wish people would get their facts straight.

Do we know that or is that just more media b s. Opinion. Similar to, he will be shipped out… I heard, the rumour is, my sources tell me

 

[Nineteen67]

I think it's a combination of both. I'm still waiting to see a team win the Cup with 4 forwards taking up that much of the cap, plus I don't believe we can win the Cup with this core.

There certainly are two factors at play here.

53% of the cap spent on four players that the more I see the less inclined I am to believe any of them will ever get their name on the Cup.

 

[ACC1224]

That's right - his made up ask of $12.5 is only 44.9% higher that Reinhart's, not 50%.

I wish people would get their made up facts straight.

Reinharts reported(aka made up) ask of Toronto was 11.5, Marners reported(aka made up) ask of Florida was 9.5.

 

[notbias]

Was the Penguins 45% in for forwards

I think it was 4 players making up that total, Florda also had a similar cap allocation the year before this one (it included dead cap space and a goalie who started as a backup).

To be fair, the argument always changes, it was "no one making 10 million won", "can't have so much cap tied up into so few players", "can't have so much cap tied up in so few forwards", and now I am seeing "can't have so much cap tied up into so few forwards who play the same way".

The issue is less about cap allocation and more about no one stepping up (this includes depth).

The Panthers had $6 million in dead cap before last year and Edmonton had Nurse and Ceci making $13 million last year.

There are overpayments and poor cap management on every team.

The issue for the Leafs is every star player has stepped up at some point, but none of them have done it consistently or for long enough stretches, and it is always staggered and never in the same year.

That is a huge issue.

Another issue is depth scoring has never got it done either (ROR was our best piece, but not sure he is depth), which is not a cap issue, and we have tried a ton of different depth pieces, people thought Bertuzzi and Domi were our saviors this year. Outside of ROR, our best-performing depth has been able to score at a pace of 47pts/82gms.

We have had varying issues yearly in the playoffs, but pretending that it is only the core 4 that is a problem is where people seem to take offense. I know personally, that it is why I defend them, not because I think the criticism is unwarranted, it is because the criticism is more than they deserve, they deserve some, but not all. This thread is a perfect example because Marner has struggled in some series, but his series where he has played well are now void and forgotten, he has not been bad for 8 years, in every series, and people can't seem to handle that point of view.