Trade Deadline day approaches (quarantine reduced)

[WTFMAN99]

I'm completely fine with that, but we all know the Media is going to start crucifying Keefe and Dubas if Thornton sits out. I also think Thornton is gonna be of impact in the playoffs. So Idk

I think if they retain 50% on Laughton, we can give up the 1st.

Kerfoot for Hartman...kinda tough, might want a plus there.

Should give us the ability to carry an extra forward and maybe sit Thornton every 3rd game.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Goalie insurance
Depth D
Forward with some jam

Ullmark for a 2nd + maybe Andersen if he can't LTR the rest of the year? (His salary was 1M for the year so not much for Sabres to take)
Merill/Hutton for a 4th 2022
Laughton at 50% retained for a 1st

Laughton-Matthews-Marner
Gally-JT-88
Soup-Engvall-Hyman
Kerfoot-Spezza-Simmonds
Thornton

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Merrill/Hutton-Bogosian
Dermott (Don't think Keefe trusts him)

Campbell (when 100% healthy)
Ullmark

Don't know why you get that impression, or why he would trust a worse defenseman in Merrill more than he trusts Dermott right now?



I don't think anything has changed based on his play in the past 2 months, and ultimately it comes down to the available minutes. There aren't any. We have 4 good PK defensemen, which speaks to our depth because Dermott has had success on the PK in his own right. He should arguably be given a chance on the PP, since he may be better than Muzzin and Brodie in that regard. Otherwise, he is looking at splitting minutes with Rielly and Muzzin.

Keefe seemed comfortable giving Dermott 22 minutes in the one game that Muzzin was missing with a facial injury, and he did very well as he often does when he needs to step up. If he was really uncomfortable with Dermott, he could have taken some of his minutes and given them to Lehtonen, who played all of 10 minutes that game.

Dubas likely trades him before keeping him as anything less than a bottom pairing defenseman, especially since he specifically moved Lehtonen to keep Dermott in the lineup full time.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Laughton and/or Palmieri would be excellent additions.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I think if they retain 50% on Laughton, we can give up the 1st.

Kerfoot for Hartman...kinda tough, might want a plus there.

Should give us the ability to carry an extra forward and maybe sit Thornton every 3rd game.

I think we can get Laughton at 50% for a B prospect and a 2nd. Same price that Toffoli went for last year. He is not a top 6 guy and he is a rental.

If Engvall is not included in the deal himself, you can rotate him, Spezza, Galchenyuk (if he falls off), and Thornton. You would still have Robertson, Barabanov, Petan, Brooks, Malgin, and Anderson as extras as well, but perhaps the Leafs can explore a cheap depth swap involving a guy like Rubins or Duszak to get another center in that mix (although Malgin, Petan, and Brooks can all probably play center if Spezza is taking the draws).

 

[Clark4Ever]

Thornton has faded fast since coming back from his injury. We definitely need another bottom six forward going into the playoffs.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Don't know why you get that impression, or why he would trust a worse defenseman in Merrill more than he trusts Dermott right now?



I don't think anything has changed based on his play in the past 2 months, and ultimately it comes down to the available minutes. There aren't any. We have 4 good PK defensemen, which speaks to our depth because Dermott has had success on the PK in his own right. He should arguably be given a chance on the PP, since he may be better than Muzzin and Brodie in that regard. Otherwise, he is looking at splitting minutes with Rielly and Muzzin.

Keefe seemed comfortable giving Dermott 22 minutes in the one game that Muzzin was missing with a facial injury, and he did very well as he often does when he needs to step up. If he was really uncomfortable with Dermott, he could have taken some of his minutes and given them to Lehtonen, who played all of 10 minutes that game.

Dubas likely trades him before keeping him as anything less than a bottom pairing defenseman, especially since he specifically moved Lehtonen to keep Dermott in the lineup full time.

Ice time last 5 games

14:09
14:08
7:58
15:46
14:11

I think Keefe likes him more than he liked Lehtonen but I don't get the sense he's crazy about him.

Merrill averaging just under 20 minutes a night on a far worse Detroit team. I think he could be quite steady for us.

5v5 Merrill gets 56.6% Defensive zone starts and 44% CF
5v5 Dermott gets 45.2% Defensive zone starts and only 48.9% CF

I think we can get Laughton at 50% for a B prospect and a 2nd. Same price that Toffoli went for last year. He is not a top 6 guy and he is a rental.

If Engvall is not included in the deal himself, you can rotate him, Spezza, Galchenyuk (if he falls off), and Thornton. You would still have Robertson, Barabanov, Petan, Brooks, Malgin, and Anderson as extras as well, but perhaps the Leafs can explore a cheap depth swap involving a guy like Rubins or Duszak to get another center in that mix (although Malgin, Petan, and Brooks can all probably play center if Spezza is taking the draws).

Depends on what the market dictates, if it costs a 1st, so be it.

 

[TMLAM34]

Swapping Dermott for Merrill is just a lateral move, it doesn’t really improve us.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Swapping Dermott for Merrill is just a lateral move, it doesn’t really improve us.

It's more insurance, don't wanna see Marincin again.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

It's more insurance, don't wanna see Marincin again.

swapping one LHD for another doesn't actually create any insurance

 

[kb]

I mentioned mostly all of this on the 29th. Almost a regurgitation of my post.

With the contract break down at that point, I wasn't going to be shocked then if his name was pushed forward to the media as their primary focus.

And I'm not surprised now that it has been mentioned, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Dell included in any deal as they get closer.

Would prefer Wedgewood, but......

Thx for your "take" of the situation!

Personally, I think I would like Wood, Vatanen, and Wedgewood. One stop shopping.

 

[WTFMAN99]

swapping one LHD for another doesn't actually create any insurance

One is in the press box in case of injury aren't they?

Ben Hutton also another great option

Even strength the guy starts 64.5% of the time in the defensive zone and still has 43.4% CF

That's better than Dermott.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

One is in the press box in case of injury aren't they?

Ben Hutton also another great option

Even strength the guy starts 64.5% of the time in the defensive zone and still has 43.4% CF

That's better than Dermott.

43.4 cf% is terrible and much lower than Dermott's. If Merill or Hutton get added, neither of them would replace Dermott

 

[Dreakmur]

I'm completely fine with that, but we all know the Media is going to start crucifying Keefe and Dubas if Thornton sits out. I also think Thornton is gonna be of impact in the playoffs. So Idk

What makes you think Thornton is going to be an impact in the playoffs? He was never an impact in the playoffs - not even at his absolute peak.

I don’t think he’s the quite deserves the playoff choker reputation he carries, but he has certainly never been very good.

 

[Dreakmur]

43.4 cf% is terrible and much lower than Dermott's. If Merill or Hutton get added, neither of them would replace Dermott

Compare CF% to zone starts.

 

[WTFMAN99]

43.4 cf% is terrible and much lower than Dermott's. If Merill or Hutton get added, neither of them would replace Dermott

Dermott

Merrill

Hutton

Despite way softer zone starts, Dermott's CF % is not much better. You lose.

 

[OVO16]

Adding a depth defenseman isn't to Replace Dermott....but to have an experienced D-Man on the roster in-case of injuries. Just like when Muzzin got hurt and MArincin had to step. Literally, anyone is better than Marincin.

Also for the people who will quickly say Sandin or Lily.....I just don't think Dubas's is 1st choice is to have a 2 rookies in the fire in case of injuries.

Based off the Leafs acquisitions in the summer....is Clear Dubas and Co. are confusing more on a Experiece/Veteran level. Someone who has playoff games under their belt

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Dermott

View attachment 417553

Merrill

View attachment 417554

Hutton

View attachment 417556

Despite way softer zone starts, Dermott's CF % is not much better. You lose.

zone starts have almost no impact on underlying numbers, and it is much better. Dermott is in the 54th percentile, Merill is in the 12th percentile and Hutton is in the 7th percentile. You're comparing an average defenseman to two of the worst defensemen in the league

 

[Clark4Ever]

Good points regarding bolstering our defense core.

With all of our injury problems this season, it's easy to forget how fortunate we have been so far on the blueline. That is a huge reason for our outstanding defensive play overall.

 

[LeafChief]

What makes you think Thornton is going to be an impact in the playoffs? He was never an impact in the playoffs - not even at his absolute peak.

I don’t think he’s the quite deserves the playoff choker reputation he carries, but he has certainly never been very good.

Thornton doesn't have it in him to go full throttle all season. You'll see another gear in the playoffs. He's never been shy to get rough. Will he be a difference maker? Probably not but I expect we'll see more out of him come playoff time.

Suggesting he was never an impact playoff player at his peak is a strange take.

2006-07: 11 points in 11 games
2010-11: 17 points in 18 games
2015-16: 21 points in 24 games

Not bad.

 

[TMLAM34]

I do agree a vet 7th dman would be an ideal pickup. No point in replacing Dermott if it’s just a lateral move however. At someone like Irwin as the 7th or a Schenn it makes a lot of sense.

 

[WTFMAN99]

zone starts have almost no impact on underlying numbers, and it is much better. Dermott is in the 54th percentile, Merill is in the 12th percentile and Hutton is in the 7th percentile. You're comparing an average defenseman to two of the worst defensemen in the league

False.

 

[TMLAM34]

If we didn’t have Thornton, Wallmark wouldn’t be a bad waiver pickup.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

zone starts have almost no impact on underlying numbers, and it is much better. Dermott is in the 54th percentile, Merill is in the 12th percentile and Hutton is in the 7th percentile. You're comparing an average defenseman to two of the worst defensemen in the league

They do have an impact on underlying numbers, but not to that extent.

This is everyone's favourite punching dummy Martin Marincin, who also happens to be on our depth chart right now. Now he was not playing 20 minutes a night like Merrill was, but with those numbers, Merrill shouldn't be playing 20 minutes a night either... and you can even compare his Vegas numbers when he was a sheltered bottom pairing defenseman on a good team and you can see that Merrill is pretty much in the same category as Marincin: Depth PK guy.

Ben Hutton was good in LA last year but there is a reason why he (and Merrill) are struggling to get more than 1 mill on their contracts (if they get a contract at all) right now.

 

[Fogelhund]

I do agree a vet 7th dman would be an ideal pickup. No point in replacing Dermott if it’s just a lateral move however. At someone like Irwin as the 7th or a Schenn it makes a lot of sense.

Or Hakanpaa even.

Basically any player, who provides some grit, isn't terrible, some physicality, could play PK, and is a UFA after this year, with a contract that you can bury.

 

[WTFMAN99]

They do have an impact on underlying numbers, but not to that extent.

View attachment 417560

This is everyone's favourite punching dummy Martin Marincin, who also happens to be on our depth chart right now. Now he was not playing 20 minutes a night like Merrill was, but with those numbers, Merrill shouldn't be playing 20 minutes a night either... and you can even compare his Vegas numbers when he was a sheltered bottom pairing defenseman on a good team and you can see that Merrill is pretty much in the same category as Marincin: Depth PK guy.

Ben Hutton was good in LA last year but there is a reason why he (and Merrill) are struggling to get more than 1 mill on their contracts (if they get a contract at all) right now.

Marincin might be the biggest poster child for where analytics get weird for people because the numbers might look good but the eyes tell you another story.

We also have consider that LAK And DET are some pretty bad teams. I think either one of Hutton or Merrill are pretty solid 3rd pairing guys or 7th guys to have around in case an injury pops up like last season with Muzzin. I can't see anyone really crying about spending a 4th or 5th round pick on either of them just to have them around in case they're needed?