Trade Deadline day approaches (quarantine reduced)

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

False.

you can't argue that 50 cf% and 43% are close, while also arguing that zone starts have a significantly impact on corsi. you're completely wrong on both counts, but it's an untenable position

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Ice time last 5 games

14:09
14:08
7:58
15:46
14:11

I think Keefe likes him more than he liked Lehtonen but I don't get the sense he's crazy about him.

Merrill averaging just under 20 minutes a night on a far worse Detroit team. I think he could be quite steady for us.

5v5 Merrill gets 56.6% Defensive zone starts and 44% CF
5v5 Dermott gets 45.2% Defensive zone starts and only 48.9% CF

I think you may have answered your own question. Merrill is on a much worse team and Detroit does not have any better options to use. Hence he gets more minutes. Dermott has to compete with Rielly and Muzzin for LD playing time. Hence he is getting less minutes. Swap the teams, and you are easily swapping the minutes too. Dermott probably plays over 20 minutes a night on Detroit.

Also, Dermott has >50% CF at ES after last game (and I am fairly sure it has been like that for a few games now) and is at 53% playing with Bogosian, who is his primary partner. Really, if it wasn't for playing with Lehtonen for 20 minutes where they received high OZS's and were brutal together, then his numbers would be really good even for his zone starts.

 

[WTFMAN99]

you can't argue that 50 cf% and 43% are close, while also arguing that zone starts have a significantly impact on corsi. you're completely wrong on both counts, but it's an untenable position

*significant

I can't believe how you're doubling down on this lol. You can get some wrong, take the L and move on.

I think you may have answered your own question. Merrill is on a much worse team and Detroit does not have any better options to use. Hence he gets more minutes. Dermott has to compete with Rielly and Muzzin for LD playing time. Hence he is getting less minutes. Swap the teams, and you are easily swapping the minutes too. Dermott probably plays over 20 minutes a night on Detroit.

Also, Dermott has >50% CF at ES after last game (and I am fairly sure it has been like that for a few games now) and is at 53% playing with Bogosian, who is his primary partner. Really, if it wasn't for playing with Lehtonen for 20 minutes where they received high OZS's and were brutal together, then his numbers would be really good even for his zone starts.

I agree, swap the teams and Dermott's ice time likely goes up.

Bogosian has really stabilized our 3rd pairing, it's the best it has been in years.

Again, I don't think we're arguing on the merits of the insurance policy. Leafs PR announces Hutton or Merrill to Toronto for a 4th or a 5th round pick, I think we're probably okay with that.

I don't care about that pick this year when this year is one of our better chances to go deep. It's good to have reliable vet D to call upon. Reminds me of when the Kings turned to Schultz in one of their playoff runs and he really helped by playing simple effective minutes.

 

[GQS]

Also for the people who will quickly say Sandin or Lily.....I just don't think Dubas's is 1st choice is to have a 2 rookies in the fire in case of injuries.

Based off the Leafs acquisitions in the summer....is Clear Dubas and Co. are confusing more on a Experiece/Veteran level. Someone who has playoff games under their belt

If Liljegren is doing as well as people who watch him say he is then why not give him a few regular season games and see how he does? If he looks good then perhaps you don't really even need to trade for a Dman after all. Not every vet Dman is great and not every rookie can't play well when given the chance. McAvoy started his NHL career in the playoffs and he looked good. Not saying Lily can necessarily do the same, but it shows that rookies can do alright too and that you don't always have to have a vet Dman to be successful.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I'm ok with bringing in a vet #7 defender. My main criteria would be:

- winning experience
- some physicality
- shown the ability to be a #7, playing strong games after sitting out for a few games at a time

After a quick look, one name that comes to mind is Coburn. Won't have to quarantine either.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

*significant

I can't believe how you're doubling down on this lol. You can get some wrong, take the L and move on.

It's called a typo, and it doesn't really help to prove that I'm wrong to zero in on that and ignore everything else. You obviously have zero understanding of the subject at hand and can't even talk about it

 

[WTFMAN99]

It's called a typo, and it doesn't really help to prove that I'm wrong to zero in on that and ignore everything else. You obviously have zero understanding of the subject at hand and can't even talk about it

You literally said that zone starts have no impact on corsi and you're wrong.

 

[Dreakmur]

Thornton doesn't have it in him to go full throttle all season. You'll see another gear in the playoffs. He's never been shy to get rough. Will he be a difference maker? Probably not but I expect we'll see more out of him come playoff time.

Suggesting he was never an impact playoff player at his peak is a strange take.

2006-07: 11 points in 11 games
2010-11: 17 points in 18 games
2015-16: 21 points in 24 games

Not bad.

Not bad, I agree. As I said, I don’t think he deserves the choker label. That doesn’t mean he was a good performer.

11 points in 11 games... after putting up like 125 during the regular season. That’s a pretty significant dropoff.

I wouldn’t expect more in the playoffs out of a guy who has a history of giving less.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

You literally said that zone starts have no impact on corsi and you're wrong.

Link?

 

[LeafChief]

If Liljegren is doing as well as people who watch him say he is then why not give him a few regular season games and see how he does? If he looks good then perhaps you don't really even need to trade for a Dman after all. Not every vet Dman is great and not every rookie can't play well when given the chance. McAvoy started his NHL career in the playoffs and he looked good. Not saying Lily can necessarily do the same, but it shows that rookies can do alright too and that you don't always have to have a vet Dman to be successful.

I may be wrong but I believe it's because they literally can't give him a game due to the cap (unless they want to risk losing someone on waivers again).

 

[WTFMAN99]

Link?

That you?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

View attachment 417570

That you?

So I didn't literally say that zone starts have no impact? Cool, glad we could clear that up

 

[WTFMAN99]

So I didn't literally say that zone starts have no impact? Cool, glad we could clear that up

"zone starts have almost no impact"

You were wrong.

 

[Menzinger]

CJ formally mentioning goaltending is interesting (as is fairly firm stance the Leafs will actually add a forward despite the market being the way it is).

I wonder if it may be for a cheap but consistent backup guy like Dell whose a clear step up from Hutch who can be relied on if Andersen can't return

 

[WTFMAN99]

CJ formally mentioning goaltending is interesting (as is fairly firm stance the Leafs will actually add a forward despite the market being the way it is).

I wonder if it may be for a cheap but consistent backup guy like Dell whose a clear step up from Hutch who can be relied on if Andersen can't return

I know the big name is Palmieri

They did talk about someone grittier to play playoff hockey, Wood+Dell?

 

[meefer]

I would love to see all areas of our team 'bolstered'. The playoffs are a long grind, and this season has already demanded more of the players than usual. Depth will be key.

That said, and with all respect to the suggestions already made, I wonder how much 'fit' enters into the conversation, and by that I mean the player(s) who are acquired before the TDL and their personal mindsets. It's been a long time since I've seen a Leaf team that appears to be as close as this one. For all the grief they take, at times, Thornton and Simmonds, name your favorite, seem to have balanced the room dynamic and there's a collective buy in from the players. That is a dynamic I want to strengthen, not lose. Example: I don't think Galchenyuk 4 years ago would be the player for the Leafs he is today. The guy is playing hard! He sees the opportunity, he is supported by the team, he ups his compete, and the results are encouraging.

I have no idea who Gally's comparables are, but I want those players who are excited to join the possibility, the strong possibility, of winning a Cup.

If so-and-so has to be cajoled into making the sacrifice of a week of isolation vs the guy who is all in, give me the latter...that guy is playing for the Cup. I want players who recognize the special opportunity that comes with joining this team, the career defining joy of winning it all, and for them that is the ultimate goal. They'll break down walls. It may be a Hall, or a far less recognized player, but whoever it is, I want that/those players who are 'all in'. They'll fit in with the culture that I believe this team is cultivating and add a dimension that helps the cause.

Palmeiri's hesitancy doesn't appeal (if this is true). Others the same. I want the guys who are willing to go all out for themselves and a team that gives them the chance to be champions.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Marincin might be the biggest poster child for where analytics get weird for people because the numbers might look good but the eyes tell you another story.

We also have consider that LAK And DET are some pretty bad teams. I think either one of Hutton or Merrill are pretty solid 3rd pairing guys or 7th guys to have around in case an injury pops up like last season with Muzzin. I can't see anyone really crying about spending a 4th or 5th round pick on either of them just to have them around in case they're needed?

So they are weird because they don't fit what you are saying about him? I have watched Marincin a bunch too; my eye test support his numbers. Eye tests are subjective and unreliable. At this point, people have such a severe bias against Marincin that they will refuse he can be anything more than the hot garbage they believe he is. Even though his numbers, and an eye test which has enough patience to witness his value, support the exact opposite claim.

Case in point: People have blamed Marincin for losing against Columbus in the playoffs when he replaced Muzzin. Now losing Muzzin is a big loss in its own right and a guy like Marincin should not be able to fully replace him... Otherwise we have top 4 quality defensemen as depth. However, these are the numbers Marincin put up in those three games playing ~17 minutes a night.

And he played on a PK that literally did not give up a single goal in 5 games (on top of getting a SH GF). Maybe Marincin is just a good defensive defenseman?

As depth guys, Merrill and Hutton are probably fine. Unnecessary with Sandin and Marincin, but fine. That is drastically different than putting them in the lineup over a far better defenseman in Dermott.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

"zone starts have almost no impact"

You were wrong.

So you can see the word almost. That's not what you said a second ago. I was not wrong, you just pointed out a typo and lied about what I said

 

[WTFMAN99]

So they are weird because they don't fit what you are saying about him? I have watched Marincin a bunch too; my eye test support his numbers. Eye tests are subjective and unreliable. At this point, people have such a severe bias against Marincin that they will refuse he can be anything more than the hot garbage they believe he is. Even though his numbers, and an eye test which has enough patience to witness his value, support the exact opposite claim.

Case in point: People have blamed Marincin for losing against Columbus in the playoffs when he replaced Muzzin. Now losing Muzzin is a big loss in its own right and a guy like Marincin should not be able to fully replace him... Otherwise we have top 4 quality defensemen as depth. However, these are the numbers Marincin put up in those three games playing ~17 minutes a night.

View attachment 417569

And he played on a PK that literally did not give up a single goal in 5 games (on top of getting a SH GF). Maybe Marincin is just a good defensive defenseman?

As depth guys, Merrill and Hutton are probably fine. Unnecessary with Sandin and Marincin, but fine. That is drastically different than putting them in the lineup over a far better defenseman in Dermott.

Maybe you don't know what to look for?

So you can see the word almost. That's not what you said a second ago. I was not wrong, you just pointed out a typo and lied about what I said

Didn't quantify it.

Still haven't explained how starting 200 feet from the opposition's net doesn't impact numbers lol.

 

[Fogelhund]

So you can see the word almost. That's not what you said a second ago. I was not wrong, you just pointed out a typo and lied about what I said

Just stop.

How much do zone starts matter part II: A lot on their own, not that much in aggregate

 

[WTFMAN99]

Just stop.

How much do zone starts matter part II: A lot on their own, not that much in aggregate

Might go over his head

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Bogosian has really stabilized our 3rd pairing, it's the best it has been in years.

What is actually funny is that Dermott - Ozhiganov was actually better with fewer OZS (they had ridiculous possession numbers despite pretty much having a 50/50 OZS split), and even Dermott - Ceci + Dermott - Polak was not significantly worse despite playing far more defensive minutes. Dermott-Carrick were heavily sheltered so obviously their possession numbers were high.

Bogosian has been good, but our bottom pairing has not really been a problem in any capacity since Dermott has been on there. It was our top 4 with guys like Gardiner getting major minutes which is what killed us.

 

[LeafChief]

Taylor Hall.

 

[GQS]

I may be wrong but I believe it's because they literally can't give him a game due to the cap (unless they want to risk losing someone on waivers again).

If that's the case then that sucks and we should just move Andersen if there are any takers at all and bring in a cheaper goalie in return or just go with Campbell as the number one and Hutch/Vehvilainen as the backups. Moving Freddie helps the cap abit and getting anything back for him is just icing on the cake.

 

[WTFMAN99]

What is actually funny is that Dermott - Ozhiganov was actually better with fewer OZS (they had ridiculous possession numbers despite pretty much having a 50/50 OZS split), and even Dermott - Ceci + Dermott - Polak was not significantly worse despite playing far more defensive minutes. Dermott-Carrick were heavily sheltered so obviously their possession numbers were high.

Bogosian has been good, but our bottom pairing has not really been a problem in any capacity since Dermott has been on there. It was our top 4 with guys like Gardiner getting major minutes which is what killed us.

Oz isn't in the NHL for a reason.

Dermott is good with zone exits, has some nice wheels. I suspect he's a bit of an analytics darling.

I don't have much of an issue with our defense this season which is a rarity, I think the last decade we were hoping to add a top 4 D.

Brodie is the best partner Rielly has ever had but I find this has been one of his weaker seasons. Decision making seems slower and I don't know if he still think he is with Ceci or Hainsey but just doesn't realize he has a great partner to help him.

I do think we're one defense injury away from playing with fire with that back end.

Bring on Hutton / Merrill