Trade Deadline day approaches (quarantine reduced)

[Kiwi]

I can't think of any player I would trade Robertson for.

I can think of a few

Yup. No one accused them of being realistic.

Dream big, but realize it's Buffalo were talking about

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yup. No one accused them of being realistic.

I love that they think they will only take a 1st+ for Ullmark from us.

I guess they feel like we need to pay a premium. Nobody on their team is getting a premium from anyone.

And considering the sad state of their pool, they should be fortunate to even get our C-level prospects and mid-round picks for much of what they have to offer.

 

[ChuckWoods]

What about a guy like Mike Reilly as a depth d option? He's actually played well in a top 4 role for Ottawa and he shouldn't cost much. Takes some pressure off of Sandin as well if we have injuries.

There's no reason for us to trade for Glendening tbh, we're 7th in faceoff percentage in the league and 5th in D-zone and PK percentage.

... Maybe Hakanpaa is likely of interest to Dubas if he wants to bolster the blueline, which I believe he tries to accomplish on a tighter budget than his allocated cap space for a Top 6 winger.

 

[kb]

Dream big, but realize it's Buffalo were talking about

How is their better rebuild AND drafting the better Nylander working out for them so far?

 

[kb]

I love that they think they will only take a 1st+ for Ullmark from us.

I guess they feel like we need to pay a premium. Nobody on their team is getting a premium from anyone.

And considering the sad state of their pool, they should be fortunate to even get our C-level prospects and mid-round picks for much of what they have to offer.

It's bizarre really....devoid of all realistic thought. But since their rebuild whiffed, I guess they expect the Leafs to fix that for them.

 

[TopChedder]

It's bizarre really....devoid of all realistic thought. But since their rebuild whiffed, I guess they expect the Leafs to fix that for them.

They will probably end up drafting Shane Wright, I don't want to give them anymore first rounders.

If they draft in the top 5-10 enough they are bound to fluke into a good team.

That fanbase would be unbearable.

 

[kb]

They will probably end up drafting Shane Wright, I don't want to give them anymore first rounders.

If they draft in the top 5-10 enough they are bound to fluke into a good team.

That fanbase would be unbearable.

Buffalo Sabres Draft History at hockeydb.com

Holy.....yikes. Whiffs and trading away those who would become NHL'ers.

 

[123offtheglass]

Hopefully Palmieri goes to the Islanders so that they're not in on the bidding for Foligno once he's made available; would make it easier to acquire him at a reasonable price.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Toronto Maple Leafs Rumours: A few teams believe Kyle Dubas has a move in his back pocket, per Elliotte Friedman | MLHS

Friedman: A few teams believe Dubas has a move in his back pocket (SN590)

On the Lead Off, Elliotte Friedman discussed the position the Leafs most want to address before the deadline barring the goaltending situation throwing a wrench in their plans.

I have talked to a couple of teams who believe Dubas has something in his back pocket — a move he knows he can make. I think it comes down to whether he has to get somewhere where the money makes sense, or is he waiting to see if there is anything bigger he can do? There are some teams in holding patterns: Nashville is one, Columbus is one. I think you kind of have to get through that and figure out where you are in 10 days or something sooner.

I suspect he knows what he is going to do. It is just waiting to see if it all works or if something else drops on his lap.

Friedman on the area of the roster Kyle Dubas most wants to address:

I believe the Leafs want to find a top-six forward if they can — a winger. There are two things here: They don’t have a ton of cap room, so if you watch some of the stuff they have done with the waivers and the cap juggling they have done, it is clear Kyle Dubas knows the number of what he needs and he is making sure he can do it. The Andersen things could throw a wrench into it because they don’t have much cap space. But I do think the left-winger or top-six forward is the thing he would like to do the most.

I do think they have considered the idea of a depth defenseman, but it probably comes down to what they have to do in goal or if they can move someone else to clear some room. They won’t have the ability to do all of this stuff if the goalie is involved. I do think the top-six forward is the ultimate #1.

...................

Friedman on when the Leafs will need to make up their minds about the goaltending situation and whether they need to add:

It sounds to me that the decision will be made sometime in the middle of next week. They said everything seemed to go well with Andersen’s appointment. They are being very, very tight-lipped about what the issue is here. I just get the sense that this decision is going to be made at the middle-to-end of next week. They have called around.

They are being smart about it. They are telling people, “We are not going to do it unless we absolutely have to. We don’t have a ton of cap room.” They don’t want to use it on a goalie if they don’t have to. But they are doing their due diligence around the league and have said, “This is on our radar. We don’t know what our ultimate decision is going to be, but if we have to, what is the situation?” I think they have done that legwork.

The Campbell thing is another part of this. The issue here is that it just seems like he gets through games and then isn’t feeling great. The other day, Keefe made a comment along the lines of, “He has just got to be straight with us.” That says to me that Campbell is saying he can go, and then something comes up. This is a guy who three times this year after a win has had to sit out. I think they are asking him to be straight on how he feels.

I think this is a decision that gets made end of next week, kind of.

Friedman on whether the Leafs have revisited the Alexandar Georgiev possibility with the Rangers at any point:

It is a good question. I haven’t heard it. I just know last year that they were never close. There was a lot of talk about it, but I heard they were never close.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Hopefully Palmieri goes to the Islanders so that they're not in on the bidding for Foligno once he's made available; would make it easier to acquire him at a reasonable price.

Hopefully the Islanders get Foligno to help lower the price for actually worthwhile trade targets

 

[123offtheglass]

Hopefully the Islanders get Foligno to help lower the price for actually worthwhile trade targets

You don't like Foligno?

 

[stickty111]

You don't like Foligno?

The player fits but his game is really fallen off. Thats the concern especially with his style of play.

 

[bossram]

Palmieri would be fine, but I don't think the numbers add up. Even waiting until the deadline with 50% retention and Engvall going back wouldn't be enough to make it work. If we're going to pay double retention for a rental, I'd rather go bigger.

Mirtle has written a few pieces on how the Leafs don't really have any TDL cap concerns. They'll have about ~900k in space, which translates to a ~4 million cap hit at the deadline. With retention, they can pretty much add anyone they want without sending salary back.

Palmieri isn't my preferred target either (should be Iafallo IMO) but they won't have any problem fitting him in.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Mirtle has written a few pieces on how the Leafs don't really have any TDL cap concerns. They'll have about ~900k in space, which translates to a ~4 million cap hit at the deadline. With retention, they can pretty much add anyone they want without sending salary back.

Palmieri isn't my preferred target either (should be Iafallo IMO) but they won't have any problem fitting him in.

Capfriendly has us with 1.083 projected deadline space, can't see that increasing four-fold in a week.

 

[Kiwi]

How is their better rebuild AND drafting the better Nylander working out for them so far?

I still think the funniest thing I've read on here was a Buffalo fan saying how Buffalo it was they got the less attractive Nylander

 

[bossram]

Capfriendly has us with 1.083 projected deadline space, can't see that increasing four-fold in a week.

The Capfriendly default has Brooks and Liljegren on the active roster.

 

[Mickey Marner]

The Capfriendly default has Brooks and Liljegren on the active roster.

Fair enough. If we send Liljegren down and send Brooks the other way we can afford it. Still a dangerous game running a skeleton crew to add a guy like Palmieri. Much better options available without all the gymnastics.

 

[DougGilmour93]

Can we trade Nylander already?

 

[hockeywiz542]

Capfriendly has us with 1.083 projected deadline space, can't see that increasing four-fold in a week.

How much Cap Space do the Leafs have?

April 2, 2021

I know at the deadline it can sometimes seem like cap space is made up, you hear things like a player with a $6m cap hit “only costing $2m” at the deadline. This has to do with the way cap space is calculated, I’ll try to explain without getting too technical. Cap space is counted on a daily basis, and unused space “accrues” to be used later in the season. A team that has $2m in cap space every day for the first two thirds of the season can spend $4m over the cap for the final third of the season, because their average daily cap space over the course of the season would then be 0.

There is a distinction to be made between “accrued” cap space, and “daily” cap space. Daily space is the upper limit ($81.5m), minus the sum of all cap hits on the team (including retained salary, buyouts, buried…). When determining deadline space, it is very important to put these into two separate categories.

Right now, the Leafs can build a roster of 19 players that has $2,100,259 in daily cap space. To be clear the minimum roster is 20, but the assumption is that they’re trading for someone here. That does not equate to $6m in functional cap space, because the Leafs were using LTIR for the majority of the season and not accruing space. That begs the question, just how much functional cap space do the Leafs have? What is the most expensive player they can afford? Before any consideration of retained salary, let’s find out.

Dollars and Cents

In addition to the ~$2.1m in daily space, the Leafs have been accruing since Wayne Simmonds was activated from LTIR on March 19th. That day the Leafs had a roster $350k under the cap, so that money was banked for use later in the season. Considering the season is 116 days long, that $350k of daily salary averages out to a little over $3k in cap space accrued.

We use this averaged out number to represent accrued cap space, because the effective cap space it creates (how much a team can spend) depends on the number of days remaining in the season. The same amount of accrued cap space can buy a player twice as expensive with 50 days remaining, than it can with 100 days remaining. I hope that helped explain the concept of accrued space versus daily space, but it’s a tough to understand fully. That is why I am going to do the math for you.

Since activating Simmonds from LTIR the Leafs have averaged over $400k in daily cap space, and accrued just over $50k as of April 2nd. If they continue to carry a 21 man roster, that will build up to between $80k and $100k by the trade deadline. If the Leafs really wanted to they could have stretched that to $300k, instead they chose to get some players on 2-way deals a couple days of NHL pay. That tells me whatever trades the Leafs make, they know they won’t need more than $2.5m.

Today, the Leafs can acquire a $2.3m cap hit without sending any money back. On the trade deadline, there is 27 days remaining in the NHL regular season. That means $80-$100k accrued allows the Leafs to spend ~$400k over the cap before their average on the season hits $81.5m. Add that on to $2.1m in daily cap space with a 19 man roster, and you find that $2.5m in cap space.

On the topic of sending money out, it seems unlikely at this point. I know there was some appetite amongst fans to move Alexander Kerfoot or Frederik Andersen for the cap space to make a big trade, but it would have been unnecessary to waive Travis Boyd in that scenario. The Boyd move really signaled to me something was imminent, I know the Leafs weren’t keen on losing him.

Another option for the Leafs is to get a player in the $2m range so they can continue accruing salary, in order to carry a 21st man as the regular season winds down. Since the Leafs don’t have any Performance Bonuses to pay out this year, there is no reason to sit on accrued space. Part of me thinks that the Leafs already had a guy in mind because they didn’t try to accrue more. That doesn’t necessarily mean getting a player with a $2m contract though.

Getting back to who the Leafs might target, they have the assets to get almost any player on the market. A pair of high end prospects on both forward and D, nearly all of their draft picks, and deeper prospect pool than they’ve had in years. I get the feeling they don’t want to shake up the dressing room too much, but it’s impossible to know how any one player will change the chemistry. With all those assets the Leafs can convince teams to not only retain 50%, but get a 3rd team involved to pick up a quarter more.

 

[seanlinden]

The Goodrow discourse is interesting. He's a very useful bottom-six player. Based on his underlying metrics, he's definitely much more than a 4th liner. His defensive value is legitimately high-end.

That said, the reason he has such value to the Lightning is that he's cheap. Once you're paying him market value, the surplus value for him is no longer there. As currently constructed, the Leafs can't afford to pay medium dollars to players in the bottom-half of their lineup. They need to continue to find useful pieces on bargain basement contracts.

They should be looking for the next Goodrow.

Agreed 100%.

One would hope that they MIGHT have that in a guy like Joey Anderson.

That would be smart, maybe Nick Paul although he probably isn't as good. Honestly though I think the open market is much different now than it usually is because of the flat-cap/COVID market. Instead of guys getting overpaid, a lot are actually getting underpaid, getting paid below their market value . 2020 NHL Free Agents Tracker Looking through the past offseason there's a lot of players going for below market value, the change in money spent from past years to 2020 is significant, there's less money available to go around to the free agents available. This time around it's likely worse than the last as the cap is still flat, teams still have a lot of money committed, and teams are losing money this season. The offseason after this coming one will likely be much closer to the norm, but this coming one should be the same if not worse (or better for a team like the Leafs, it depends how you look at it).

You could expect a lot of players again to go for below their market value, & if Dubas could lee Goodrow into taking a hometown friendly deal much like the others who have signed here (Brodie, Simmonds, Spezza, Thornton), it could be a great option.

The Leafs are a high budget team that's a free agent hotspot for Torontotarians in a very different situation from the norm, and they have a chance to take advantage again this offseason. They shouldn't pay Goodrow significant money to acquire him, but they should inquire about him coming on a team-friendly deal if it makes sense for both.

You are absolutely correct in that COVID absolutely "slaughtered" the mid and low-tier UFAs this past offseason, and is likely to have a similar effect this offseason. I would anticipate this affect to maybe be a bit smaller, simply because most US teams are likely looking at full buildings for the start of the next season.

Goodrow's in an interesting spot being 28 years old. 1-2 years may get him "out of COVID"; but you're now looking at a player who will be 30 years old, that plays a style which doesn't tend age particularly well.

On the flip side, that 5 year, $22m contract he would have probably been looking at without COVID is likely off the table... but if he can go out and get a 5-year, $13-14m deal; that security is probably in his best interest.

Personally, I don't think there's a middle ground for him because of his age. It's either a 1-year deal to try and reach more favourable economic conditions, or take the best long term deal he can. If I was in his position, the only place I'd take the 1-year is in Tampa... anywhere else is just too much of a risk that you don't fit in and burn your marketability.

 

[Cor]

We should probably acquire a goalie lol

 

[TML1967]

... Maybe Hakanpaa is likely of interest to Dubas if he wants to bolster the blueline, which I believe he tries to accomplish on a tighter budget than his allocated cap space for a Top 6 winger.

Dermott has looked fine as a 3 LHD, but I am not against adding a big bruising 7thD. Only problem is his skating is sub par, and he isnt great with the puck.

Playoffs are long and hard (lol) and having someone who is 6'5, 220lbs who is mean in front of the net isnt a bad things as long as the aquisition cost is low enough.

Over half a season (43 NHL games over 2 years) he is a positive Corsi Rel guy, who hits a ton. Problem is he gives up the puck a good amount, and his skating is not good enough to be given big minutes. Looks good on the PK at least.

Would mean the Leafs have an extra 2 LHD, and 1 RHD who are fine in small minutes who arent currently playing (Sandin, Liljgren and him)

 

[Dragao6]

They will probably end up drafting Shane Wright, I don't want to give them anymore first rounders.

If they draft in the top 5-10 enough they are bound to fluke into a good team.

That fanbase would be unbearable.

Oilers??

 

[TopChedder]

Oilers??

Buffalo

 

[Dragao6]

Buffalo

No I meant the oilers have been picking top 5 forever

and still not great
If not for mcdavid wow