Trade Deadline day approaches (quarantine reduced)

[LeafSteel]

Sabres fans are delusional when it comes to price for Ullmark. They expect 2nd + Dermott + Amdersen which is just asinine. Half of them still say no. Lehner clearly set the market last year, and he only got a 2nd + Malcolm Subban + C prospect. I don't even think Ullmark will be traded, especially the leafs but that just ridiculous. I really can't see Ullmark staying in Buffalo. Why would he willingly stay in that tire fire when he is a UFA. I can't see them offering him such an insane amount of money that he can't refuse, so he'd be crazy not to go to literally any other team.

Took 3 posts in the thread to see a “minimum Robertson +” post so I left.

it’s why I never go in the first place....

 

[bossram]

Numbers schmumbers Barclay Goodrow is not an ok 4th liner; that guy can play.

I like Goodrow, but I’m not sure I’d want to pay him much more than the cap space Simmonds is currently using.

Our only really significant needs are 1b goalie and 3C, so that’s where the money should be prioritized. The rest of our roster is pretty ok for next season.

This.

He's a solid 3rd line checking forward, but will probably command in the $3m range which realistically, the Leafs cannot afford.

He's never really produced enough even for a 3rd liner. He's been a ~25pt pace guy in Tampa and a bit less than that in SJ.

Beyond scoring, his underlying metrics are just ok.

Not the kind of guy you want to give any real money to, but somebody will pay up for all the cup winning hype he's received.

Goodrow is solid, but I think the best play would be to find the next Goodrow (or start drafting them) rather than pay UFA prices. Would definitely give him Simmonds money though.

The Goodrow discourse is interesting. He's a very useful bottom-six player. Based on his underlying metrics, he's definitely much more than a 4th liner. His defensive value is legitimately high-end.

That said, the reason he has such value to the Lightning is that he's cheap. Once you're paying him market value, the surplus value for him is no longer there. As currently constructed, the Leafs can't afford to pay medium dollars to players in the bottom-half of their lineup. They need to continue to find useful pieces on bargain basement contracts.

They should be looking for the next Goodrow.

 

[kb]

Took 3 posts in the thread to see a “minimum Robertson +” post so I left.

it’s why I never go in the first place....

Yup. No one accused them of being realistic.

 

[RealisticLeaf55]

I can't think of any player I would trade Robertson for.

 

[123offtheglass]

The Goodrow discourse is interesting. He's a very useful bottom-six player. Based on his underlying metrics, he's definitely much more than a 4th liner. His defensive value is legitimately high-end.

That said, the reason he has such value to the Lightning is that he's cheap. Once you're paying him market value, the surplus value for him is no longer there. As currently constructed, the Leafs can't afford to pay medium dollars to players in the bottom-half of their lineup. They need to continue to find useful pieces on bargain basement contracts.

They should be looking for the next Goodrow.

That would be smart, maybe Nick Paul although he probably isn't as good. Honestly though I think the open market is much different now than it usually is because of the flat-cap/COVID market. Instead of guys getting overpaid, a lot are actually getting underpaid, getting paid below their market value . 2020 NHL Free Agents Tracker Looking through the past offseason there's a lot of players going for below market value, the change in money spent from past years to 2020 is significant, there's less money available to go around to the free agents available. This time around it's likely worse than the last as the cap is still flat, teams still have a lot of money committed, and teams are losing money this season. The offseason after this coming one will likely be much closer to the norm, but this coming one should be the same if not worse (or better for a team like the Leafs, it depends how you look at it).

You could expect a lot of players again to go for below their market value, & if Dubas could lee Goodrow into taking a hometown friendly deal much like the others who have signed here (Brodie, Simmonds, Spezza, Thornton), it could be a great option.

The Leafs are a high budget team that's a free agent hotspot for Torontotarians in a very different situation from the norm, and they have a chance to take advantage again this offseason. They shouldn't pay Goodrow significant money to acquire him, but they should inquire about him coming on a team-friendly deal if it makes sense for both.

 

[123offtheglass]

Sabres fans are delusional when it comes to price for Ullmark. They expect 2nd + Dermott + Amdersen which is just asinine. Half of them still say no. Lehner clearly set the market last year, and he only got a 2nd + Malcolm Subban + C prospect. I don't even think Ullmark will be traded, especially the leafs but that just ridiculous. I really can't see Ullmark staying in Buffalo. Why would he willingly stay in that tire fire when he is a UFA. I can't see them offering him such an insane amount of money that he can't refuse, so he'd be crazy not to go to literally any other team.

Just shows you how afraid they are of losing the lone light spot of their team, as if they're on the brink of collapse without him. Without Ullmark their win% is 1/31, not kidding you. Linus Ullmark Stats and News NHL Hockey Standings

 

[stickty111]

They would have to be put on waivers and clear first before they could be assigned to the taxi squad....

Yeah I know that. What I meant was they can't scratch any of those two without putting them on the taxi squad?

 

[123offtheglass]

Goodrow is solid, but I think the best play would be to find the next Goodrow (or start drafting them) rather than pay UFA prices. Would definitely give him Simmonds money though.

Also, some of you guys are kidding yourselves calling Goodrow a 4th liner. Every other year Tampa loses a forward (e.g. Marchessault, Miller, Verhaeghe) who can barely get ice time and these guys immediately become top-line forwards on playoff teams. Goodrow was 7th in forward TOI in the 2020 playoffs and 8th this year on better rosters than the Leafs have iced in half a century. If he's a 4th liner, so are half our forwards.

Yea on a stacked team like Tampa that started guys like Stamkos and Tyler Johnson on their 4th line that says something. That shutdown line of Coleman Gourde Goodrow is as an elite a shutdown line as you can get; they've been stellar & they certainly are not just dragging Goodrow along with them. It's not like the Islanders are filled with a team of forwards putting up great offensive numbers, yet they're almost at the top of the league in it's hardest division; defense matters.

 

[Menzinger]

Just shows you how afraid they are of losing the lone light spot of their team, as if they're on the brink of collapse without him. Without Ullmark their win% is 1/31, not kidding you. Linus Ullmark Stats and News NHL Hockey Standings

The funny thing is this season probably had the lowest consequences of any recent one for a tanking team since fans aren't in the building anyways. There's no fear of lost ticket sales or fear of fan protests ect

 

[Fogelhund]

@sportsnet

Kyle Palmieri is being held out of the New Jersey Devils' lineup against the Washington Capitals on Sunday in anticipation of a trade, according to his agent.

 

[stickty111]

@sportsnet

Kyle Palmieri is being held out of the New Jersey Devils' lineup against the Washington Capitals on Sunday in anticipation of a trade, according to his agent.

Already posted but he would be a good add for us without overpaying.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Yeah would be a fan of Palmieri .. IIRC he wasn't wanting to be traded to a Canadian team initially because of the 14-day quarantine, but since that's changed I wonder if he's changed his mind.

 

[kb]

Yeah I know that. What I meant was they can't scratch any of those two without putting them on the taxi squad?

The only way to save cap is to waive them off the active roster and then send them to the taxi squad. That's the bugaboo for the Leafs......scratching keeps the cap hit.

If I am getting what you are trying to say here.....it could be me misunderstanding it.

 

[CatchyTune]

Yup. No one accused them of being realistic.

thats what losing will do to ya

 

[smitty10]

To Toronto:
Nick Foligno (retained 50%)
Boone Jenner

To Columbus:
Alex Kerfoot
Pierre Engvall
Timothy Liljegren

To Toronto:
John Merrill
Luke Glendening

To Detroit:
2021 2nd round pick

To Toronto:
Linus Ullmark

To Buffalo:
Frederick Andersen
Alexander Barabanov
2021 3rd round pick

Leafs lineup going into playoffs:

Foligno-Matthews-Marner
Hyman-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Jenner-Galchenyuk
Thornton-Spezza-Simmonds
Glendening

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Merrill-Bogosian
Dermott

Campbell
Ullmark

 

[Mickey Marner]

Palmieri would be fine, but I don't think the numbers add up. Even waiting until the deadline with 50% retention and Engvall going back wouldn't be enough to make it work. If we're going to pay double retention for a rental, I'd rather go bigger.

 

[Fogelhund]

I can't think of any player I would trade Robertson for.

I like the kid, but surely anyone could come up with a list of dozens of people that they’d trade him for.

 

[613Leafer]

One thing is we shouldn't be overpaying for past success or for the name on the back of a jersey.

Rick Nash for example was on his 3rd sub-40 point season, with 28 points in 60 games, when Boston traded a 1st, a 7th, Lindgren (a solid prospect at the time), Spooner, and Beleskey for him. Boston could have traded for a more typical ~30-35 point player for like a mid round pick or two.

So Nick Foligno for example is a guy I think Columbus would want a hefty package for, but who simply isn't worth it at this point in his career. I really like Laughton as an option if Philly is out of it, I think he ticks a ton of boxes and gives us flexibility up front too because he could play top 6 LW or 3rd line C.

 

[stickty111]

The only way to save cap is to waive them off the active roster and then send them to the taxi squad. That's the bugaboo for the Leafs......scratching keeps the cap hit.

If I am getting what you are trying to say here.....it could be me misunderstanding it.

Yup I got it. Thanks. So basically Keefe doesn't have a choice but to keep the same 6 d men every game.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

To Toronto:
Nick Foligno (retained 50%)
Boone Jenner

To Columbus:
Alex Kerfoot
Pierre Engvall
Timothy Liljegren

To Toronto:
John Merrill
Luke Glendening

To Detroit:
2021 2nd round pick

To Toronto:
Linus Ullmark

To Buffalo:
Frederick Andersen
Alexander Barabanov
2021 3rd round pick

Leafs lineup going into playoffs:

Foligno-Matthews-Marner
Hyman-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Jenner-Galchenyuk
Thornton-Spezza-Simmonds
Glendening

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Merrill-Bogosian
Dermott

Campbell
Ullmark

All three are overpayments but the Columbus one is really bad. I'm not giving them a future top 4 D that's young and controllable for players that wouldn't have much more of an impact than Kerfoot/Engvall anyways.

Foligno and Jenner won't be playing 19 minutes a night here so when their offense dries up playing 13-14 minutes it would look really bad.

If you're giving up a Sandin/Liljegren/Robertson you better be going for an impact player with term.

 

[Leaftors]

To Toronto:
Nick Foligno (retained 50%)
Boone Jenner

To Columbus:
Alex Kerfoot
Pierre Engvall
Timothy Liljegren

To Toronto:
John Merrill
Luke Glendening

To Detroit:
2021 2nd round pick

To Toronto:
Linus Ullmark

To Buffalo:
Frederick Andersen
Alexander Barabanov
2021 3rd round pick

Leafs lineup going into playoffs:

Foligno-Matthews-Marner
Hyman-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Jenner-Galchenyuk
Thornton-Spezza-Simmonds
Glendening

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Merrill-Bogosian
Dermott

Campbell
Ullmark

Ya none of that’s going to happen

 

[grapes55]

What about a guy like Mike Reilly as a depth d option? He's actually played well in a top 4 role for Ottawa and he shouldn't cost much. Takes some pressure off of Sandin as well if we have injuries.

There's no reason for us to trade for Glendening tbh, we're 7th in faceoff percentage in the league and 5th in D-zone and PK percentage.

 

[CatchyTune]

To Toronto:
Nick Foligno (retained 50%)
Boone Jenner

To Columbus:
Alex Kerfoot
Pierre Engvall
Timothy Liljegren

To Toronto:
John Merrill
Luke Glendening

To Detroit:
2021 2nd round pick

To Toronto:
Linus Ullmark

To Buffalo:
Frederick Andersen
Alexander Barabanov
2021 3rd round pick

Leafs lineup going into playoffs:

Foligno-Matthews-Marner
Hyman-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Jenner-Galchenyuk
Thornton-Spezza-Simmonds
Glendening

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Merrill-Bogosian
Dermott

Campbell
Ullmark

i forgot Barabanov existed until i saw this lol.

i easily do the Buffalo one. they would probably want a 2nd.

do we really need Merrill and Glendening enough to trade a 2nd for them? Glendening is a solid 4C but we dont need him with Spezza in that role. Merrill is an ok option for the 7D spot.

The Columbus one is tough but i probably do it. is the upgrade of Kerfoot/Engvall to Jenner/Foligno worth Liljegren? i dont know. maybe im stingey on him. especially since Foligno is a rental and Jenner has 1 year left. if the retention is on Jenner instead it makes it better.

 

[CatchyTune]

All three are overpayments but the Columbus one is really bad. I'm not giving them a future top 4 D that's young and controllable for players that wouldn't have much more of an impact than Kerfoot/Engvall anyways.

Foligno and Jenner won't be playing 19 minutes a night here so when their offense dries up playing 13-14 minutes it would look really bad.

If you're giving up a Sandin/Liljegren/Robertson you better be going for an impact player with term.

yeah upon first glance i thought it was a good deal, but if you really think about it, does it really make us that much better? and for only a couple months at that because Foligno is a rental. i agree if Liljegren goes its for a bigger piece.

 

[RealisticLeaf55]

I'm all for Foligno and Jenner. Just not at that price. I do believe a lot of people here though don't fully value what a third line of Foligno-Spezza/Kerfoot-jenner would bring to the table. That is a big time shut down line with offensive skill.