GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - Let the games begin

[Dreakmur]

OEL's been really good for Van so far.
His CF% this year so far is higher than any other year he's played.. and its not like Van is 6-0 lol. They're a .500 club.

Garland has 8 points….

 

[All Mod Cons]

It's interesting how much forward depth the Florida Panthers built on the fly with the additions of Verhaeghe, Marchment, Duclair, Bennett and Reinhart over the past couple of years while Dubas did his thing with his targeted players.

There are just so many better GMs out there. How did we end up picking this guy?

 

[Americanadian]

Rielly would be a good fit for a cup run in Colorado. Kaut+Helleson would be a good return.

The Isles also make sense but not enough good trade pieces.

 

[LeafSteel]

4 1st rounders and 11 million in cap space seems pretty appealing right now.

Nah. Dubas would trade the 1st rounders for broken down UFAs while missing the playoffs….

 

[hockeynorth]

yeah okay, I'm on board with Marner for Eichel now. After the Olympics we can run:

Bunting-Matthews-Nylander
Tavares-Eichel-Mikheyev
Kerfoot-Kampf-Kase
Ritchie-Spezza-Simmonds

 

[hockeynorth]

Three more realistic targets I have though:

1. Dylan Strome - I would try and trade for him, ideally with a 2nd + B prospect, but would go as high as Kerfoot or Mikheyev if the money works
2. Trevor Moore - I think we should try and bring him back, I don't suspect it would cost too much and he'd bring some compete
3. Dillon Dube - Flames are playing him absurdly low in the lineup, try and get him, play him with the big boys and we probably have another Bunting. Would look awesome with Tavares in my opinion

Also, it needs to be said that the filler players really have not been the problem to date, and Matthews has hardly played. The problem lies with Marner, Tavares, Holl and Muzzin. You could also look at Kerfoot and Kampf, but I believe both are playing on par with what is expected of them.

I would try and rest Muzzin, move Sandin up, and run Liljegren

 

[ryno23]

Three more realistic targets I have though:

1. Dylan Strome - I would try and trade for him, ideally with a 2nd + B prospect, but would go as high as Kerfoot or Mikheyev if the money works
2. Trevor Moore - I think we should try and bring him back, I don't suspect it would cost too much and he'd bring some compete
3. Dillon Dube - Flames are playing him absurdly low in the lineup, try and get him, play him with the big boys and we probably have another Bunting. Would look awesome with Tavares in my opinion

Also, it needs to be said that the filler players really have not been the problem to date, and Matthews has hardly played. The problem lies with Marner, Tavares, Holl and Muzzin. You could also look at Kerfoot and Kampf, but I believe both are playing on par with what is expected of them.

I would try and rest Muzzin, move Sandin up, and run Liljegren

I would do the Dube trade but make it a blockbuster and add Tkachuk for Marner and Ritchie. If you can add Holl for Tanev then do it faster

 

[Gabriel426]

I would do the Dube trade but make it a blockbuster and add Tkachuk for Marner and Ritchie. If you can add Holl for Tanev then do it faster

Flames might do Tkachuk and Tanev for Marner and Holl trade bc Tkachuk will hit RFA this summer and he is going to ask for 9-10mil.

 

[jaric1862]

If they're making any "minor" move, it needs to be for a Zach Bogosian type defensemen. Not having him on the penalty kill and on the bottom pairing is putting way too much stress on the top two pairs.

 

[JSn0w93]

Rielly likely returns an absurd package at the deadline, going to be hard to pass on that.

 

[17 Clark]

Rielly likely returns an absurd package at the deadline, going to be hard to pass on that.

I don’t know what you think you’re replacing Riley with but Kyle‘s too dumb to trade him he will walk for free and everybody will be saying why didn’t we trade him lmao

 

[phillipmike]

Fun fact Jared McCann would be our leading scorer

The funny thing is when Dubas finally does something right, he still screws it up.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I think Calgary makes the most sense for a Marner blockbuster. Remember we made that huge Phaneuf trade with them on January 31st, 2010... That could be the time both teams decide to make a huge shakeup if things are not going their way.


LW Matthew Tkachuk
LD Noah Hanifin
LD/RD Nikita Zadorov
LW Andrew Mangiapane


RW Mitchell Marner
LD Morgan Rielly
LD/RD Travis Dermott
LW Pierre Engvall

And even the value with picks. Leafs will want an extension done with Tkachuk, and Calgary one with Rielly.

For this year, Calgary is taking on 528k in cap. Next year, Calgary has 29 mill in cap space. Add in Marner/Dermott and take out Hanifin, and that goes down to 21.5 mill.

They need to sign Engvall instead of Mangiapane up front but they need to sign/replace Gaudreau and Rielly's extension will be fairly expensive as well. This will be what their lineup would look like with around 4 mill in cap space to fill the ???'s and add depth:


Coleman-Lindholm-Marner
Gaudreau (UFA)-Backlund-Dube
Pelletier-Monahan-???
Lucic-???-Engvall (RFA)

Rielly (UFA)-Andersson
Valimaki-Tanev
Kylington (RFA)-Dermott

Markstrom-Vladar

For the rest of this year, this is what the Leafs would look like:

Tkachuk-Matthews-Mangiapane
Bunting-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kampf-Kase (bottom 6 shutdown)
Ritchie-Kerfoot-Spezza (bottom 6 offense)
Simmonds

Hanifin-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Zadorov
Liljegren

Mrazek-Campbell

PP1
Tkachuk
Nylander-Tavares-Matthews
Hanifin

PP2
Ritchie
Mangiapane-Bunting-Spezza
Sandin

PK Forwards
Kase, Nylander, Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Kampf, and maybe Mangiapane

PK Defensemen
Brodie, Hanifin, Muzzin, Holl, and Zadorov.

Now for next year, we would have Mikheyev, Zadorov, Spezza, and Campbell as our UFA's. Tkachuk, Mangiapane, Sandin, Liljegren, and Kase as our RFA's. I would estimate we would have 17.7 mill in cap space.

Let's say we give Tkachuk an 11% contract, which is right in line where he should be based on previous comparables. Since we are not accounting for cap increases here, that would mean he gets 9 mill on an 8 year deal. For guys who signed as 24/25 year old forwards after bridges, that would put him only behind Giroux, Kessel, and Voracek in terms of cap percentage, and ahead of O'Reilly, Tarasenko, Johansen, and Kuznetsov in terms of similar percentage.

For Mangipane, I think you can just use Conor Garland. Same age (although Garland signed at 25 instead of 26 like Mangipane would), Garland had 47 goals and 96 points in 164 games at the time; Mangiapane, at the same age, had 44 goals and 77 points in 178 games. Both smaller guys with somewhat similar playing styles too I would say. Garland received just north of 6% (4.95 AAV) over 5 years. Let's just say Mangiapane gets 4.9x5 (6% exactly).

Campbell likely comes in at 4 mill on the dot over 3 or 4 years. He'll be 30, and short of him being an absolute stud, guys at that age with limited starting experience don't get more than 5%.

I gave Sandin 1.5 mill x 2 and Liljegren 900k x 1. That leaves us exactly 100k mill to re-sign/replace Kase or Mikheyev, with zero depth guys... which is obviously impossible without cutting some cap. We are left some choices in that regard, but I think the simplest at this point would be to trade Ritchie and Kase.

Tkachuk - Matthews - Mangiapane
Bunting - Tavares - Nylander
Kerfoot - Kampf - UFA (shutdown bottom 6)
Simmonds - Spezza - Anderson (offensive bottom 6)

Hanifin - Brodie
Muzzin - Liljegren
Sandin - Holl

Campbell - Mrazek

The Leafs would have 1.95 mill to find that UFA and perhaps add a permanent depth guy, with this being the potential Marlies roster next year:

LW Rodion Amirov – C Michael Amadio (RFA) – RW Josh Ho-Sang (AHL UFA)
LW Nick Robertson – C Semyon Der-Arguchintsev – RW Pavel Gogolev
LW Pontus Holmberg – C Mikhail Abramov – RW Alex Steeves
LW Ryan Chyzowski - C Curtis Douglas – RW ???
LW ??? – C ??? – RW ???

LD Filip Kral - RD Brennan Menell (RFA)
LD Kristians Rubins (RFA) - RD Topi Niemela (unsigned)
LD Mikko Kokkonen (unsigned) - RD Axel Rindell (unsigned)
LD ??? - RD William Villeneuve
RD Joseph Duszak (RFA)/RD Brennan Kapcheck/RD Mac Hollowell (RFA)

Kallgren - Woll (RFA)
Scott (RFA)/Petruzzelli

Conclusion
This is probably a crazy proposal with a very long shot of happening, but if we do go down the blockbuster route, I do think Calgary makes a ton of sense.

 

[kb]

I think Calgary makes the most sense for a Marner blockbuster. Remember we made that huge Phaneuf trade with them on January 31st, 2010... That could be the time both teams decide to make a huge shakeup if things are not going their way.


LW Matthew Tkachuk
LD Noah Hanifin
LD/RD Nikita Zadorov
LW Andrew Mangiapane


RW Mitchell Marner
LD Morgan Rielly
LD/RD Travis Dermott
LW Pierre Engvall

And even the value with picks. Leafs will want an extension done with Tkachuk, and Calgary one with Rielly.

For this year, Calgary is taking on 528k in cap. Next year, Calgary has 29 mill in cap space. Add in Marner/Dermott and take out Hanifin, and that goes down to 21.5 mill.

They need to sign Engvall instead of Mangiapane up front but they need to sign/replace Gaudreau and Rielly's extension will be fairly expensive as well. This will be what their lineup would look like with around 4 mill in cap space to fill the ???'s and add depth:


Coleman-Lindholm-Marner
Gaudreau (UFA)-Backlund-Dube
Pelletier-Monahan-???
Lucic-???-Engvall (RFA)

Rielly (UFA)-Andersson
Valimaki-Tanev
Kylington (RFA)-Dermott

Markstrom-Vladar

For the rest of this year, this is what the Leafs would look like:

Tkachuk-Matthews-Mangiapane
Bunting-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kampf-Kase (bottom 6 shutdown)
Ritchie-Kerfoot-Spezza (bottom 6 offense)
Simmonds

Hanifin-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Zadorov
Liljegren

Mrazek-Campbell

PP1
Tkachuk
Nylander-Tavares-Matthews
Hanifin

PP2
Ritchie
Mangiapane-Bunting-Spezza
Sandin

PK Forwards
Kase, Nylander, Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Kampf, and maybe Mangiapane

PK Defensemen
Brodie, Hanifin, Muzzin, Holl, and Zadorov.

Now for next year, we would have Mikheyev, Zadorov, Spezza, and Campbell as our UFA's. Tkachuk, Mangiapane, Sandin, Liljegren, and Kase as our RFA's. I would estimate we would have 17.7 mill in cap space.

Let's say we give Tkachuk an 11% contract, which is right in line where he should be based on previous comparables. Since we are not accounting for cap increases here, that would mean he gets 9 mill on an 8 year deal. For guys who signed as 24/25 year old forwards after bridges, that would put him only behind Giroux, Kessel, and Voracek in terms of cap percentage, and ahead of O'Reilly, Tarasenko, Johansen, and Kuznetsov in terms of similar percentage.

For Mangipane, I think you can just use Conor Garland. Same age (although Garland signed at 25 instead of 26 like Mangipane would), Garland had 47 goals and 96 points in 164 games at the time; Mangiapane, at the same age, had 44 goals and 77 points in 178 games. Both smaller guys with somewhat similar playing styles too I would say. Garland received just north of 6% (4.95 AAV) over 5 years. Let's just say Mangiapane gets 4.9x5 (6% exactly).

Campbell likely comes in at 4 mill on the dot over 3 or 4 years. He'll be 30, and short of him being an absolute stud, guys at that age with limited starting experience don't get more than 5%.

I gave Sandin 1.5 mill x 2 and Liljegren 900k x 1. That leaves us exactly 100k mill to re-sign/replace Kase or Mikheyev, with zero depth guys... which is obviously impossible without cutting some cap. We are left some choices in that regard, but I think the simplest at this point would be to trade Ritchie and Kase.

Tkachuk - Matthews - Mangiapane
Bunting - Tavares - Nylander
Kerfoot - Kampf - UFA (shutdown bottom 6)
Simmonds - Spezza - Anderson (offensive bottom 6)

Hanifin - Brodie
Muzzin - Liljegren
Sandin - Holl

Campbell - Mrazek

The Leafs would have 1.95 mill to find that UFA and perhaps add a permanent depth guy, with this being the potential Marlies roster next year:

LW Rodion Amirov – C Michael Amadio (RFA) – RW Josh Ho-Sang (AHL UFA)
LW Nick Robertson – C Semyon Der-Arguchintsev – RW Pavel Gogolev
LW Pontus Holmberg – C Mikhail Abramov – RW Alex Steeves
LW Ryan Chyzowski - C Curtis Douglas – RW ???
LW ??? – C ??? – RW ???

LD Filip Kral - RD Brennan Menell (RFA)
LD Kristians Rubins (RFA) - RD Topi Niemela (unsigned)
LD Mikko Kokkonen (unsigned) - RD Axel Rindell (unsigned)
LD ??? - RD William Villeneuve
RD Joseph Duszak (RFA)/RD Brennan Kapcheck/RD Mac Hollowell (RFA)

Kallgren - Woll (RFA)
Scott (RFA)/Petruzzelli

Conclusion
This is probably a crazy proposal with a very long shot of happening, but if we do go down the blockbuster route, I do think Calgary makes a ton of sense.

About as realistic as one could hope for......but I don't think that the value for either fanbase would be rational.

 

[Cor]

If they're making any "minor" move, it needs to be for a Zach Bogosian type defensemen. Not having him on the penalty kill and on the bottom pairing is putting way too much stress on the top two pairs.

Could sign Jason Demers

 

[Legion34]

Flames might do Tkachuk and Tanev for Marner and Holl trade bc Tkachuk will hit RFA this summer and he is going to ask for 9-10mil.

I have played around with a

Rielly (extension) and marner for tkachuk (extension) and hanafin.


If just rielly. I think that Calgary would want him as a rental

hanafin Anderson
Rielly. Tanev
Valinaki Zadorov

would be a great defence.

 

[4thline]

Some of you will hate hate hate the value here, but with Marner's cap hit, playoff rep, and current play I think that the vultures will be circling, and the market constrained.

To Arizona - Marner

To Toronto
Nick Schmaltz- slow start, and IMO more a wing than a C, but I think can be a 20g 40 assist type in our top 6.
Conditional Pick 1
Conditional Pick 2

CP 1 If the best of their 3 picks is top 10 we get the 2nd pick, other wise we get the best of the 3
CP 2 If Pick 1 is later than 20 we get their 3rd 1st rounder, if it's better than 20 we get their best 2nd rounder

Best case value Schmaltz plus 1st (~5-10th overall) + 2nd (33-38th overall)
Worst case value Schmaltz plus 1st (20th-32nd +1st (20th- 32nd)

Arizona has oodles of cap space, and the real dollars are essentially equal over the next 3 years. The only question is if they think they can keep Marner longer than the 3 years, or if they think they can turn it around fast enough and build around 2022 1st rounder, Keller, Marner Guenther, Chychrun

 

[Stigma]

Toronto
Mitch Marner +

Chicago
Dylan Strome
Alex Nylander
Unprotected first

Strome can still be a 2nd line C. He's only 24. Maybe he needs to be back home for inspiration.

Nylander has not had a good start to his career, but maybe the lifelong chemistry of playing with his brother helps?

Unprotected first -. Chicago are going to suck. This can be a great pick. I doubt they do it though.

 

[Minty Cowboy]

Three more realistic targets I have though:

1. Dylan Strome - I would try and trade for him, ideally with a 2nd + B prospect, but would go as high as Kerfoot or Mikheyev if the money works
2. Trevor Moore - I think we should try and bring him back, I don't suspect it would cost too much and he'd bring some compete
3. Dillon Dube - Flames are playing him absurdly low in the lineup, try and get him, play him with the big boys and we probably have another Bunting. Would look awesome with Tavares in my opinion

Also, it needs to be said that the filler players really have not been the problem to date, and Matthews has hardly played. The problem lies with Marner, Tavares, Holl and Muzzin. You could also look at Kerfoot and Kampf, but I believe both are playing on par with what is expected of them.

I would try and rest Muzzin, move Sandin up, and run Liljegren

I would 1000% bring Moore back loved his work ethic and underrated skill

 

[ryno23]

Flames might do Tkachuk and Tanev for Marner and Holl trade bc Tkachuk will hit RFA this summer and he is going to ask for 9-10mil.

I would take Tkachuk at 10 mil before Marner. He brings an element Marner will never have which is fight and willingness to engage in the dirty areas of the rink. While he is not as flashy he can still put up points and has very good skill.

Tanev would be a huge upgrade on Holl

 

[CupcakeSprinkles]

I'd swap Marner for Eichel in a second lol

 

[SprDaVE]

Some of you will hate hate hate the value here, but with Marner's cap hit, playoff rep, and current play I think that the vultures will be circling, and the market constrained.

To Arizona - Marner

To Toronto
Nick Schmaltz- slow start, and IMO more a wing than a C, but I think can be a 20g 40 assist type in our top 6.
Conditional Pick 1
Conditional Pick 2

CP 1 If the best of their 3 picks is top 10 we get the 2nd pick, other wise we get the best of the 3
CP 2 If Pick 1 is later than 20 we get their 3rd 1st rounder, if it's better than 20 we get their best 2nd rounder

Best case value Schmaltz plus 1st (~5-10th overall) + 2nd (33-38th overall)
Worst case value Schmaltz plus 1st (20th-32nd +1st (20th- 32nd)

Arizona has oodles of cap space, and the real dollars are essentially equal over the next 3 years. The only question is if they think they can keep Marner longer than the 3 years, or if they think they can turn it around fast enough and build around 2022 1st rounder, Keller, Marner Guenther, Chychrun

I am so bitter right now that trading Marner to Arizona would make me happy regardless if the return is even good...

But this is ok, at least to start off. I think it's missing a prospect, at the very least a B level one. Someone like Hayton (ex-Greyhound too... wooo) might work.

It would be very weird for Arizona to do this though. They have zero centers already (Boyd was their 2nd line center?) and are clearly tanking for a draft rebuild.

 

[TML Dynasty]

Marner isnt getting traded anywhere until he starts producing.....when he starts producing the appetite to trade him will be gone.

Id 100% trade him though if there was a semi fair offer. We need a shakeup. But Im scared of losing Matthews. Trading away Freddie and now possibly Mitch worries me. Is Tkachuk actually a buddy of Matthews? If so making a push to get him may add a reason for Matthews to stick around?

 

[Avilaj07]

This team needs more then just a shakeup. It needs a complete overhaul.

Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe, Marner, Rielly all need to go.

It's clear that Marner and Matthews are running this team which is causing a massive distraction and division among this team.

 

[Avilaj07]

Marner isnt getting traded anywhere until he starts producing.....when he starts producing the appetite to trade him will be gone.

Id 100% trade him though if there was a semi fair offer. We need a shakeup. But Im scared of losing Matthews. Trading away Freddie and now possibly Mitch worries me. Is Tkachuk actually a buddy of Matthews? If so making a push to get him may add a reason for Matthews to stick around?

That's exactly what's wrong with this team. It's not about being "buddies", you're being paid to perform, it's a business, not a country club. If we have a players that aren't going to give it their all because their "buddy" got traded, then that's a player I don't want.

Like Lou said, you need a team that the players play for the logo on the front of the jersey, not the name on the back. It's clear that our "star" players are doing the exact opposite. Matthews and Marner, as talented as they are, might just be the biggest issue we have.