GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - Let the games begin

[SprDaVE]

I think Calgary makes the most sense for a Marner blockbuster. Remember we made that huge Phaneuf trade with them on January 31st, 2010... That could be the time both teams decide to make a huge shakeup if things are not going their way.


LW Matthew Tkachuk
LD Noah Hanifin
LD/RD Nikita Zadorov
LW Andrew Mangiapane


RW Mitchell Marner
LD Morgan Rielly
LD/RD Travis Dermott
LW Pierre Engvall

And even the value with picks. Leafs will want an extension done with Tkachuk, and Calgary one with Rielly.

For this year, Calgary is taking on 528k in cap. Next year, Calgary has 29 mill in cap space. Add in Marner/Dermott and take out Hanifin, and that goes down to 21.5 mill.

They need to sign Engvall instead of Mangiapane up front but they need to sign/replace Gaudreau and Rielly's extension will be fairly expensive as well. This will be what their lineup would look like with around 4 mill in cap space to fill the ???'s and add depth:


Coleman-Lindholm-Marner
Gaudreau (UFA)-Backlund-Dube
Pelletier-Monahan-???
Lucic-???-Engvall (RFA)

Rielly (UFA)-Andersson
Valimaki-Tanev
Kylington (RFA)-Dermott

Markstrom-Vladar

For the rest of this year, this is what the Leafs would look like:

Tkachuk-Matthews-Mangiapane
Bunting-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kampf-Kase (bottom 6 shutdown)
Ritchie-Kerfoot-Spezza (bottom 6 offense)
Simmonds

Hanifin-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Zadorov
Liljegren

Mrazek-Campbell

PP1
Tkachuk
Nylander-Tavares-Matthews
Hanifin

PP2
Ritchie
Mangiapane-Bunting-Spezza
Sandin

PK Forwards
Kase, Nylander, Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Kampf, and maybe Mangiapane

PK Defensemen
Brodie, Hanifin, Muzzin, Holl, and Zadorov.

Now for next year, we would have Mikheyev, Zadorov, Spezza, and Campbell as our UFA's. Tkachuk, Mangiapane, Sandin, Liljegren, and Kase as our RFA's. I would estimate we would have 17.7 mill in cap space.

Let's say we give Tkachuk an 11% contract, which is right in line where he should be based on previous comparables. Since we are not accounting for cap increases here, that would mean he gets 9 mill on an 8 year deal. For guys who signed as 24/25 year old forwards after bridges, that would put him only behind Giroux, Kessel, and Voracek in terms of cap percentage, and ahead of O'Reilly, Tarasenko, Johansen, and Kuznetsov in terms of similar percentage.

For Mangipane, I think you can just use Conor Garland. Same age (although Garland signed at 25 instead of 26 like Mangipane would), Garland had 47 goals and 96 points in 164 games at the time; Mangiapane, at the same age, had 44 goals and 77 points in 178 games. Both smaller guys with somewhat similar playing styles too I would say. Garland received just north of 6% (4.95 AAV) over 5 years. Let's just say Mangiapane gets 4.9x5 (6% exactly).

Campbell likely comes in at 4 mill on the dot over 3 or 4 years. He'll be 30, and short of him being an absolute stud, guys at that age with limited starting experience don't get more than 5%.

I gave Sandin 1.5 mill x 2 and Liljegren 900k x 1. That leaves us exactly 100k mill to re-sign/replace Kase or Mikheyev, with zero depth guys... which is obviously impossible without cutting some cap. We are left some choices in that regard, but I think the simplest at this point would be to trade Ritchie and Kase.

Tkachuk - Matthews - Mangiapane
Bunting - Tavares - Nylander
Kerfoot - Kampf - UFA (shutdown bottom 6)
Simmonds - Spezza - Anderson (offensive bottom 6)

Hanifin - Brodie
Muzzin - Liljegren
Sandin - Holl

Campbell - Mrazek

The Leafs would have 1.95 mill to find that UFA and perhaps add a permanent depth guy, with this being the potential Marlies roster next year:

LW Rodion Amirov – C Michael Amadio (RFA) – RW Josh Ho-Sang (AHL UFA)
LW Nick Robertson – C Semyon Der-Arguchintsev – RW Pavel Gogolev
LW Pontus Holmberg – C Mikhail Abramov – RW Alex Steeves
LW Ryan Chyzowski - C Curtis Douglas – RW ???
LW ??? – C ??? – RW ???

LD Filip Kral - RD Brennan Menell (RFA)
LD Kristians Rubins (RFA) - RD Topi Niemela (unsigned)
LD Mikko Kokkonen (unsigned) - RD Axel Rindell (unsigned)
LD ??? - RD William Villeneuve
RD Joseph Duszak (RFA)/RD Brennan Kapcheck/RD Mac Hollowell (RFA)

Kallgren - Woll (RFA)
Scott (RFA)/Petruzzelli

Conclusion
This is probably a crazy proposal with a very long shot of happening, but if we do go down the blockbuster route, I do think Calgary makes a ton of sense.

Value wise, we could do worse I guess. This is the kind of move Cliff Fletcher would do in his prime. Take out Zadorov and Dermott and I feel better.

 

[TML Dynasty]

That's exactly what's wrong with this team. It's not about being "buddies", you're being paid to perform, it's a business, not a country club. If we have a players that aren't going to give it their all because their "buddy" got traded, then that's a player I don't want.

Like Lou said, you need a team that the players play for the logo on the front of the jersey, not the name on the back. It's clear that our "star" players are doing the exact opposite. Matthews and Marner, as talented as they are, might just be the biggest issue we have.

I dont think Matthews is the issue....nor do I think he would perform less. Im more concerned about giving him a reason to stick around in a tough media market that has already traded away his buddies, when his contract ends.

I get your point, and agree, but that wasnt what i was saying

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

It felt like we built our team to peak last year and this year given the expiry of Hyman, Rielly and getting the backend of JT and Muzzin's prime.

We are looking precarious in goal with Campbell needing a raise, and seemingly no help coming anytime soon via prospects.

Rielly re-signing is close to non-existent. Muzzin is not replaceable in any fashion if he's injured.

Sandin, Lilly, Soup will need contracts.

I don't know why we needed to see the same core for another year. Trading 1 core player would've been an acknowledgement of accountability as well as an attempt to adjust what isn't working. Even if the value was not to our exact liking, I'm not sure why it wasn't explored with greater consideration.

I was happy with Kerfoot in the playoffs, but I'm shaking my head that Seattle would've seemingly taken him and his 3.5M off our books and we went out of our way to acquire a better player for them to take instead. An extra 3.5M in FA could have served us better; especially if they guy isn't even playing centre anymore.

It's early this season - yes. But it's not early for this core's overall performance to be criticized, it's been years. There's nothing else we can do for these guys.

I honestly don't know what else they can try other than a trade. It's likely too late for that, should have been analyzed and decided upon in the offseason. Even if they looked at swapping Kerfoot for another forward making similar money it's not going to help Matthews or Marner play better.

 

[SprDaVE]

It felt like we built our team to peak last year and this year given the expiry of Hyman, Rielly and getting the backend of JT and Muzzin's prime.

We are looking precarious in goal with Campbell needing a raise, and seemingly no help coming anytime soon via prospects.

Rielly re-signing is close to non-existent. Muzzin is not replaceable in any fashion if he's injured.

Sandin, Lilly, Soup will need contracts.

I don't know why we needed to see the same core for another year. Trading 1 core player would've been an acknowledgement of accountability as well as an attempt to adjust what isn't working. Even if the value was not to our exact liking, I'm not sure why it wasn't explored with greater consideration.

I was happy with Kerfoot in the playoffs, but I'm shaking my head that Seattle would've seemingly taken him and his 3.5M off our books and we went out of our way to acquire a better player for them to take instead. An extra 3.5M in FA could have served us better; especially if they guy isn't even playing centre anymore.

It's early this season - yes. But it's not early for this core's overall performance to be criticized, it's been years. There's nothing else we can do for these guys.

I honestly don't know what else they can try other than a trade. It's likely too late for that, should have been analyzed and decided upon in the offseason. Even if they looked at swapping Kerfoot for another forward making similar money it's not going to help Matthews or Marner play better.

It's going to get weird in the next 8 months if things don't improve... and they should. I think in hindsight, things were not evaluated properly. With that said, I still think a lot of the moves were done right and a lot of things were done to rectify perceived issues. Not enough leadership and size? That's all Dubas added to this group and this still failed miserably. Changed the coaches too. Changed many different things to give them what was said they needed and they still suck.

This notion that Kerfoot traded would have been things better is just so mind boggling. Does trading him make Marner a better player? Does that make Matthews better? Does it rewind the clock on Tavares? Does it make Muzzin not suck? You can shuffle Kerfoot for McCann or Foligno or Hyman or anyone else... Not sure if matters on this Leafs team. The only thing that would have made things better is if Marner was traded this off-season and the ripples of that would have probably made a huge dent.

The depth hasn't been amazing and they probably could be better but our star players that WANTED to be paid but have failed miserably at every turn should be blamed... not the depth guys that are generally producing at respectable levels. Why are we talking about Kerfoot here when Marner, Matthews, Tavares and Nylander have a combined 10 points in 7 games.... they should have 10 points EACH.

 

[4thline]

This notion that Kerfoot traded would have been things better is just so mind boggling. Does trading him make Marner a better player? Does that make Matthews better? Does it rewind the clock on Tavares? Does it make Muzzin not suck? You can shuffle Kerfoot for McCann or Foligno or Hyman or anyone else... Not sure if matters on this Leafs team. The only thing that would have made things better is if Marner was traded this off-season and the ripples of that would have probably made a huge dent.

The depth hasn't been amazing but our star players that WANTED to be paid but have failed miserably at every turn should be blamed... not the depth guys that are generally producing at respectable levels.

This so much. We bet on Matthews and Marner. It's looking like we're going to lose that bet. It sucks.

 

[SprDaVE]

This so much. We bet on Matthews and Marner. It's looking like we're going to lose that bet. It sucks.

Dubas will get fired for believing so much in 2 guys that are taking the biggest dump on his face. That's the reality.

 

[hockeynorth]

Idk why we don’t bench players ever

 

[Cor]

Idk why we don’t bench players ever

Honestly. Sit Marner for a game, maybe two.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I think if there is any chance at all Dubas is on the hot seat, it's unlikely he will even be allowed to execute a large trade involving someone like Marner.

I don't know how the hell he isn't on the hot seat...it's early but the guy literally said he was willing to bet his career on his moves...he did the season prior too and we fizzled out a 3-1 series lead.

 

[Buds17]

Idk why we don’t bench players ever

There generally has to be a level of confidence in the player being promoted or inserted into the lineup in order to justify the demotion/benching/scratching. If Keefe loses games playing less than his best (or what should be the best players), he's likely to face scrutiny for that too.

 

[4thline]

I am so bitter right now that trading Marner to Arizona would make me happy regardless if the return is even good...

But this is ok, at least to start off. I think it's missing a prospect, at the very least a B level one. Someone like Hayton (ex-Greyhound too... wooo) might work.

It would be very weird for Arizona to do this though. They have zero centers already (Boyd was their 2nd line center?) and are clearly tanking for a draft rebuild.

The work around on that would be Keller (present management didn't sign that contract) with less futures attached.

 

[1specter]

It felt like we built our team to peak last year and this year given the expiry of Hyman, Rielly and getting the backend of JT and Muzzin's prime.

We are looking precarious in goal with Campbell needing a raise, and seemingly no help coming anytime soon via prospects.

Rielly re-signing is close to non-existent. Muzzin is not replaceable in any fashion if he's injured.

Sandin, Lilly, Soup will need contracts.

I don't know why we needed to see the same core for another year. Trading 1 core player would've been an acknowledgement of accountability as well as an attempt to adjust what isn't working. Even if the value was not to our exact liking, I'm not sure why it wasn't explored with greater consideration.

I was happy with Kerfoot in the playoffs, but I'm shaking my head that Seattle would've seemingly taken him and his 3.5M off our books and we went out of our way to acquire a better player for them to take instead. An extra 3.5M in FA could have served us better; especially if they guy isn't even playing centre anymore.

It's early this season - yes. But it's not early for this core's overall performance to be criticized, it's been years. There's nothing else we can do for these guys.

I honestly don't know what else they can try other than a trade. It's likely too late for that, should have been analyzed and decided upon in the offseason. Even if they looked at swapping Kerfoot for another forward making similar money it's not going to help Matthews or Marner play better.

All of this is accurate. The Kerfoot part in particular was music to my ears, he got overrated off one playoff series as if he was some untouchable asset but the 3.5M could've easily been repurposed for someone maybe more useful.

 

[SprDaVE]

Here's my very likely dumb, unrealistic and bad take on player movement over the next couple weeks and months with the mindset of retooling.

Marner to Anaheim for Rackell, Max Comtois, 1st and 2nd round picks (make it top 5 protected, whatever). They have the cap space. Marner is (should be) a huge upgrade. The basis of this deal seems ok, low sell on Marner but clear his cap space completely. Rackell is a pending UFA that has been on the block for awhile and Comtois is struggling badly from the looks of things but 33 points in 55 games last season.

Rielly and Simmonds to the Caps for Schultz (cap dump), 1st round pick, 2nd round pick and prospect Alex Alexeyev. Caps will very likely load up and Rielly would be a huge boost to their LD. Simmonds a veteran I'm sure they'll like.

Flip a 2nd round pick for Barrett Hayton, who seems completely out of it in Arizona. I have no idea of his value though but I assume it's around that at this point. Put him on the Marlies and hope we can develop his potential. A fine risk to take.

Bunting - Matthews - Nylander
Comtois - Tavares - Rackell
Kerfoot - Kampf - Kase
Ritchie - Engvall - Spezza
Amadio

Muzzin - Brodie
Dermott - Holl
Sandin - Liljegren
Schultz (probably plays?)

If by the deadline we're not better, dump everyone else not part of the core like Kerfoot, Holl, Engvall, Kase, etc, and bring up the young players.

Next season, Leafs have a lot of cap space, a little more depth and a restocked cupboard.

 

[TML Dynasty]

So frustrated I wanna go scorched earth and trade everyone.....but who's gonna want a 10+ million dollar winger who plays like shite.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Value wise, we could do worse I guess. This is the kind of move Cliff Fletcher would do in his prime. Take out Zadorov and Dermott and I feel better.

Needs to be done for cap unfortunately.

I have a feeling we are giving up more value (Mangiapane is more valuable than Engvall, but our other guys are a fair bit more valuable than theirs) which is why we can use picks to balance off the value.

 

[Avilaj07]

With Tarasenko still wanting out of St.Louis and with them in need of a top 4 LHD, I wonder if there's a trade their to shake up our lineup.

To Toronto-
Tarasenko
Kyrou
Bortuzzo
1st Round Pick

To St.Louis-
Marner
Rielly
Engvall

 

[showtime8]

I know everyone wants to have the big swing during the season, but I think Dubas can make 2 small trades to see if they can change the team.

Engvall for Nicolas Deslauriers ----- Engvall tries plays like he's a top 6 player, but he's not that guy. He's likely a 3rd liner on the team, but he's not physical enough and just tries to do too much. You get a guy in Deslauriers that's physical and is a true 3rd or 4th liner.


Kerfoot for Dillon Dube ----- I cringe every time Kerfoot is on the ice. He doesn't make any sort of impact and I don't see the value in his contract vs what he's likely to produce this year. Dube can provide a bit more offense IMO.

 

[SprDaVE]

With Tarasenko still wanting out of St.Louis and with them in need of a top 4 LHD, I wonder if there's a trade their to shake up our lineup.

To Toronto-
Tarasenko
Kyrou
Bortuzzo
1st Round Pick

To St.Louis-
Marner
Rielly
Engvall

This past summer? Maybe... Mayyyybe. Not anymore. Kyrou and Tarasenko are literally 2 of their top producers right now.

I know everyone wants to have the big swing during the season, but I think Dubas can make 2 small trades to see if they can change the team.

Engvall for Nicolas Deslauriers ----- Engvall tries plays like he's a top 6 player, but he's not that guy. He's likely a 3rd liner on the team, but he's not physical enough and just tries to do too much. You get a guy in Deslauriers that's physical and is a true 3rd or 4th liner.


Kerfoot for Dillon Dube ----- I cringe every time Kerfoot is on the ice. He doesn't make any sort of impact and I don't see the value in his contract vs what he's likely to produce this year. Dube can provide a bit more offense IMO.

Engvall has been one of our more efficient forward. He's not a physical guy. He's not great. But he's solid. Deslauriers by all accounts is an extremely sub average player that is not very good. We can do better. Grab a draft pick for Engvall and call up Gabriel if you want a face puncher. We don't need less skill.

I like Dube though.

 

[showtime8]

This past summer? Maybe... Mayyyybe. Not anymore. Kyrou and Tarasenko are literally 2 of their top producers right now.



Engvall has been one of our more efficient forward. He's not a physical guy. He's not great. But he's solid. Deslauriers by all accounts is an extremely sub average player that is not very good. We can do better. Grab a draft pick for Engvall and call up Gabriel if you want a face puncher. We don't need less skill.

I like Dube though.

Engvall does some good stuff out there. But he also does a bunch of bad stuff. He constantly turns back to maintain puck possession and cross seam passes. I think he tries to do too much and he's not skilled enough to get away with it all the time.

And it's not about face punchers or skill at this point. The Leafs have skill. The goals haven't come yet, but they will. I think it's about establishing the true make-up of the line-up.

If you're a scout for another team, what would be your description to your GM be on Engvall? Like regardless of the team, where would he be placed in an ideal line-up?

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

We are playing the Blackhawks tomorrow, and I am already feeling the dread.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Engvall does some good stuff out there. But he also does a bunch of bad stuff. He constantly turns back to maintain puck possession and cross seam passes. I think he tries to do too much and he's not skilled enough to get away with it all the time.

And it's not about face punchers or skill at this point. The Leafs have skill. The goals haven't come yet, but they will. I think it's about establishing the true make-up of the line-up.

If you're a scout for another team, what would be your description to your GM be on Engvall? Like regardless of the team, where would he be placed in an ideal line-up?

~12 minutes a night with 2PK time. They can choose if that means 3rd line or 4th.

We use him on the PP too, but I don't think that is where he really should be. Maybe if you want a different look.

 

[showtime8]

~12 minutes a night with 2PK time. They can choose if that means 3rd line or 4th.

We use him on the PP too, but I don't think that is where he really should be. Maybe if you want a different look.

Yeah, that's probably fair.

And I get why the Leafs like Engvall. The way the Leafs activate their defense to outnumber in the offensive zone and on the rush, plus mismatch assignments for the other team in the defensive end, they put a large reliance on skating and being able to push the pace of the game. And Engvall can skate, so that's probably a benefit to him. That being said, that style of play hasn't really worked for the team and changing it up might have a different mindset. Maybe that's pie in the sky thinking from me, but doubling down on the same style that hasn't worked, doesn't make sense.

 

[17 Clark]

So frustrated I wanna go scorched earth and trade everyone.....but who's gonna want a 10+ million dollar winger who plays like shite.

Agreed they must be lining up

 

[TheGroceryStick]

We're going to lose Rielly and sign Subban to a cheap contract.... let's not act like this isn't 100%

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

I think Anaheim would be a good trade partner for us as long as we could resign the players we aquire.

To Anaheim
Marner
Mrazek
Muzzin

To Toronto
Gibson
Lindholm
Comtois or Rakell

Leafs get a really good starter, a number 2 left d in Lindholm, and a replacement winger for the top 6.
Anaheim gets a #1 Rw capable of 95 points, A goalie replacement to hold them till their young goalie is ready, and a replacement 2 Ld to insulate their younger d man.