Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 - Post Deadline

[Ziggdiezan]

This is what I find interesting.
1. The problem is not Willie and his 7mil but it is the other three 10mil plus players.
2. If JT, MM and AM can actually all lead their own lines and play separately, their combined caphit won’t be a problem.
For example, Goalies will take 7.5mil, DCore will take 23.5mil and forwards be 50 mil. If 4the line is 3.5mil, that’s 46.5mil for the other three lines. If the first line is 20mil, 2nd line 14mil and 3rd line 12.5mil. That’s a pretty balance cap distribution.
However, AM and MM seems to be a must. Willy can lead his own line but it leaves JT to center his line but if he needs to be put in position to get his points or his contact will look like crap.
Also, being AM, Willie and JT, the Leafs lack someone with a good shot. Mik was good at breakaway due to his speed, Kase is solid but he is injured, Kerfoot can’t shoot, Bunting is okay… which leaves MM with nobody to play with.

Assuming the core are in tact for the new season, I really want to see Willie and AM both runs their own lines. Let Engvall-JT-MM be the matchup shutdown line against opposing top lines. Have Kampf on the 4th line with Blackwell and another crash and bang player.
Willie be match with Robertson and Phil(if he comes back, lol) while AM paired with Bunting and someone from trading away Kerfoot.
All their personal stats will most likely take a drop but over all, it is better balance and it would do well in the playoffs.


It seems like some people never learn.
They kept saying Kadri and Phil were bad trades and laugh at what Oilers got for Hall but at the same time want to trade Willie for spare parts.

Definitely agree. If Nylander is making 7 on a team that doesn't have 3 10+ million dollar forwards there wouldn't be even a conversation of moving him. It is a unique situation and I dont think they can resign him in 2 years so I do get trying to maximize that value now.

 

[Gabriel426]

Definitely agree. If Nylander is making 7 on a team that doesn't have 3 10+ million dollar forwards there wouldn't be even a conversation of moving him. It is a unique situation and I dont think they can resign him in 2 years so I do get trying to maximize that value now.

I would not worry about resigning Willie this summer.
It is definitely something to think about next summer.

 

[Stephen]

Definitely agree. If Nylander is making 7 on a team that doesn't have 3 10+ million dollar forwards there wouldn't be even a conversation of moving him. It is a unique situation and I dont think they can resign him in 2 years so I do get trying to maximize that value now.

A lot can change in one year's time. If the Leafs can stabilize the blueline and goaltending somehow I could see Muzzin and Brodie's combined $10 million + coming off the books by the time Matthews and Nylander need new contracts. Then ride out the last Tavares season and start the new era.

 

[Gallagbi]

I like this logic when looking at weather or not to deal Nylander. Realistically if you move Nylander, you're more likely to lose than win since you're trading an 80 point winger. If he does get traded it would need to be an extreme overpayment.

-----

That being said, I do think this is a flawed logic when it comes to acquiring players. I'd be worried to move multiple pieces for one big fish. There are many times where, this ends up going the opposite way.

Lindros deal is one. Duchene deal is another. Here are a list of other deals that had that same flaw.

2nd overall (Spezza) + Chara for Yashin. - At the time Yashin was the piece,
Jeff Carter for Jakub Voracek, 1st (Couturier), 3rd (Cousins) - 19 games of Carter led to a decade of two top 6 forwards for philly
Scott Gomez for Ryan Mcdonagh, Chris Higgins, ahlers - Gomez was viewed easily as the best piece, but the rangers ended up winning this easily.
etc

Just an example of one we currently perceive as a win-win that can turn-out very poorly. Jake Muzzin deal, yes he's been a great serviceable top 4 dman for us but we haven't been able to make the next step. Now Durzi, Bjornfot, and Grundstrom are all producing for LA. Could having that extra elc depth helped us?

Makes me question pulling a big move for a guy like JT Miller as I could see it hurting us.

I get and agree with the concept of an immediate downgrade could payoff, but that Gomez deal was insanity the second it was made. He was Skinner level overpaid and they paid a premium to acquire him.

 

[Mitch nylander]

When it comes to draft picks it depends on 1. Is the draft position already determined when you make the trade or still unknown bc a 1st rounder could be a top 3 pick to the 32nd pick.
Didn’t LA won Cup with Carter while Philly have not even come close?
I think using multiple pieces for someone like Miller will help the Leafs but the determining factor would be playoffs results.
Is Miller the missing piece for the Leafs to win the Cup, I don’t think so but he will definitely improve the team.

Personally, I don’t think Leafs is at a point to go all in with trades unless it is for a goalie like Helly.

The Carter trade was with CBJ not LA. (Voracek + Couturier + Cousins)

And I agree with you at this point.

 

[notdoneyet]

Willy cant drive his own line

He couldnt gel with matthews
He couldn’t gel with tavares

We are in a position of spreading out some of our cap to other lines

We wont win a trade with willy involved
But we can distribute that cap where it is needed

We cant keep doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result

It doesn’t work to spend all our cap on the top six and the bottom six are all 1 million dollar players. Then when the trade deadline comes we can only bring in more fringe 1 million dollar players.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Willy cant drive his own line

He couldnt gel with matthews
He couldn’t gel with tavares

We are in a position of spreading out some of our cap to other lines

We wont win a trade with willy involved
But we can distribute that cap where it is needed

We cant keep doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result

It doesn’t work to spend all our cap on the top six and the bottom six are all 1 million dollar players. Then when the trade deadline comes we can only bring in more fringe 1 million dollar players.

Nylander and Matthews worked well for the first couple of seasons together but they’ve lost that chemistry after playing apart for awhile.

 

[garyrobertsforPM]

I would trade Willy in a heartbeat for Oettinger, but Dallas likely won’t even consider it. Then spend on a UFA winger

 

[Menzinger]

Nylander and Matthews worked well for the first couple of seasons together but they’ve lost that chemistry after playing apart for awhile.

Also we don't ask Matthews/Marner/Tavares to drive their own lines either..... There's a reason why coaches opt to use two tandems.

The chemistry thing ebbs and flows more than people realize.

Either way, if the main driver of a trade is cap redistribution, it likely has to begin with one of the 11 mil guys (essentially an entire cost of a top 9 line). But that's a harder question for folks to wrap their heads around

 

[socko]

Nylander is a different player than he was early in his career. He's much more willing to go to the front of the net these days which is why his goal total has gone up considerably. Matthews being the teams best shooter probably doesn't make an ideal teammate. Marner seems the logical choice to play with Matthews, he's the teams best playmaker. It does help that Marner was much better at converting his goal scoring opportunities last year, that makes the top line less 1 dimensional, but I don't think Marner can score like that without Matthews drawing most of the attention. Marner isn't going to score 35 goals playing with anyone other than Matthews. I actually like Willy with Kerfoot. They work well together.

 

[WTFMAN99]

NJD/TOR

Mrazek and Nylander for Blackwood, Bratt, 4th round pick 2022 - Did I get enough?

LAK/TOR -

Roy for Muzzin

SEA/TOR -

3rd 2022 for Holl

DAL/TOR

2nd 2022 for Kerfoot

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Bratt (5M x4)-JT-Nichushkin (4.75M x4-5)
Paul (3M x3-4)-Kampf-Engvall (1.85M x2-3)
Robertson-Tierney(1.25M x1)-Deslauriers (1.25M x2)
Gagner (800k x1)

Rielly-Brodie
Maatta(3M x1-2)-Roy
Giordano-Liljegren (1.5M x 2)
Sandin (950k x1)

I figure Matta, Giordano and Sandin can all rotate due to age, injuries etc.

Blackwood
Holtby (2M x1)

I debated Reilly Smith beside beside JT hard but figured another bigger guy that can go to the net etc might fit more stylistically.

Top 4D was tough to find...if we feel super confident in Sandin or Giordano playing full time top 4 LD then we could put Dahlstrom in and maybe shoot for Smith. We may need to move Engvall in that scenario.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I get the feeling we’re going to be disappointed with this offseason

 

[Rob Brown]

I would trade Willy in a heartbeat for Oettinger, but Dallas likely won’t even consider it. Then spend on a UFA winger

No real reason for them to do that.

I get the feeling we’re going to be disappointed with this offseason

I feel like this every offseason and we tend to do a decent amount. I don't think this will be any different.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I get the feeling we’re going to be disappointed with this offseason

Someone mentioned the other day Dubas has averaged like 4-5 trades per off-season?

I haven't bothered to fact check.

 

[613Leafer]

NJD/TOR

Mrazek and Nylander for Blackwood, Bratt, 4th round pick 2022 - Did I get enough?

LAK/TOR -

Roy for Muzzin

SEA/TOR -

3rd 2022 for Holl

DAL/TOR

2nd 2022 for Kerfoot

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Bratt (5M x4)-JT-Nichushkin (4.75M x4-5)
Paul (3M x3-4)-Kampf-Engvall (1.85M x2-3)
Robertson-Tierney(1.25M x1)-Deslauriers (1.25M x2)
Gagner (800k x1)

Rielly-Brodie
Maatta(3M x1-2)-Roy
Giordano-Liljegren (1.5M x 2)
Sandin (950k x1)

I figure Matta, Giordano and Sandin can all rotate due to age, injuries etc.

Blackwood
Holtby (2M x1)

I debated Reilly Smith beside beside JT hard but figured another bigger guy that can go to the net etc might fit more stylistically.

Top 4D was tough to find...if we feel super confident in Sandin or Giordano playing full time top 4 LD then we could put Dahlstrom in and maybe shoot for Smith. We may need to move Engvall in that scenario.

I think 0% chance LA moves Roy 1 for 1 for Muzzin. Roy is cheaper, younger, and better.

In saying that, I do think in an expanded trade, there could be something that makes sense. A few factors to consider:
1) With the rise of Durzi, plus already having Doughty and Walker (all RHD), Roy is a guy they could probably move, and they could also use a LHD.
2) With the Doughty/Kopitar window closing, they're probably in "win now" mode and willing to make a big swing.
3) They probably don't want to spend 10.8M on goaltending (Quick is 5.8M and Peterson is 5M)
4) They could use another bona fide top line scoring threat.
5) I'd imagine LA is one of the teams Muzzin would be willing to waive his NTC for, given past history.

With all of that in mind, I think a larger trade, something like Roy + Quick + Kaliyev + ??? for Nylander + Muzzin could make sense. They get to clear 5.8M from the goaltending position, bring in a top line scoring threat in his prime, and bring in a veteran LHD who they know well. We get to bring in a veteran goalie to be part of our tandem next year, add a legit top 4 RHD in his prime signed for two more years at 3.15M, and add 6'2 21 year old with solid middle 6 upside to the team. Additionally, we would actually clear quite a bit of capspace as we would go from spending 12.59M on two players to spending 9.85M on 3 players, which gives us quite a bit of $$ to play with in free agency to try to add another legit scoring threat up front (e.g. Smith, Copp, Nichushkin, etc). Also with Quick, we could risk going pretty cheap with the other goalie, preferably someone with upside like Comrie who you would hope would take the starter role.

I put the "???" because I'm not sure if LA would have to add. I think the deal as is would be pretty close to fair though, when you consider how valuable capspace is, the value of D over wingers, and the upside to Kaliyev. Muzzin I frankly see as being pretty close to a full capdump.

 

[horner]

If Campbell was a pending free agent from another team, I think there would be a lot of interest in him here. He's in the same "tier" as goaltenders like Husso and DeSmith.

The main issue they had with Campbell I think was constantly getting injured. He seems like he's one injury away from going on LTIR. Very fragile. Great guy and I think he's got high end skill for a goaltender... but the way the last 3 months of the season went down was really frustrating.

The problem was he was overworked at the beginning of the season , then had a rib injury and had to keep playing . With our backup being injured the whole yr , soup didn't get any breathing time. Once he was injury free he was as good as any other UFA on the market.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I would not worry about resigning Willie this summer.
It is definitely something to think about next summer.

Why is that? I would guess most GMs are thinking at minimum 1 summer ahead. If you want to resign Nylander (or don't want him to walk for free) you have to think about how your going to fit him in therefore affecting any moves you make this summer

A lot can change in one year's time. If the Leafs can stabilize the blueline and goaltending somehow I could see Muzzin and Brodie's combined $10 million + coming off the books by the time Matthews and Nylander need new contracts. Then ride out the last Tavares season and start the new era.

Loosing the leafs 2 best defensive defender and not being significantly worse may be a tough ask. I dont know, personally I don't see how they possibly fit in Nylander if they want to to keep both M&M but that is just me.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Also we don't ask Matthews/Marner/Tavares to drive their own lines either..... There's a reason why coaches opt to use two tandems.

The chemistry thing ebbs and flows more than people realize.

Either way, if the main driver of a trade is cap redistribution, it likely has to begin with one of the 11 mil guys (essentially an entire cost of a top 9 line). But that's a harder question for folks to wrap their heads around

I think it is because most know there is no chance one of the 11 million dollar guys is moved and therefore Nylander is next on the list of high cap bit forwards.

JT isn't an option due to contract clauses
Matthews won't be moved
Marner is a trade you will never win as most teams don't have the cap space for an 11 million dollar wing

Edit: I'm not even advocating to trade Nylander just that I understand why people would want to

 

[TML Dynasty]

I would like to seen nylander trade

Je make Matthews worst, make Jt worst (scored his 2 liwest number of goal since his rookie season), cant drive a line by hiemself. I dont think he making leafs a better team at 7M

Couple of target leafs can have

Patrick Kane
Jt miller
Bo horvat
David Pastrnak
Dylan larkin
Timo meier

Player on his last year of contract

Evander kane
Ondrej Palat
David Perron
Andrew Copp

Player sign can sign

I keep coming back to trading Nylander too although it seems crazy.

Nylander/Tavares don’t seem to gel as they should. Shouldn’t need to get a LW to ‘get those two going’.

Adding Robertson (who I think is our internal top 6 option potentially….until the other potential Knies) to Tavares/Nylander seems like a pretty soft line

Changing up Nylander for a more power forward type scorer may change the dynamic too.

But then I circle back to ‘am I really reading Nylander to fit in f’ing Robertson??!?’

Glad Dubas is making these decisions.

Regarding goalie: I defer to the people who really know what happened behind the scenes and what Campbell was going through mentally. I’d like him back but the fact the Leafs haven’t really engaged with him to me says they are not at all comfortable there.

 

[Americanadian]

I'm starting to come around on Muzzin staying. 2 years of Rielly-Muzzin-Gio as our LHD will be fine. The only "big" contract the Leafs will need to worry about during that time frame is Bunting. The Leafs can swap Sandin to ARI for Hayton. Both players are the same age. ARI has seemingly already shipped out Chychrun and they don't have any prominent LHD prospects. Sandin can play top 4 LHD with his pals Soderstrom and Timmins. Hayton is young C that can step into Toronto's lineup. The Leafs might also be able to tie Mrazek's contract into the deal. Sandin/Hayton also both happened to play junior together, I forget which team.

 

[TML Dynasty]

I'm starting to come around on Muzzin staying. 2 years of Rielly-Muzzin-Gio as our LHD will be fine. The only "big" contract the Leafs will need to worry about during that time frame is Bunting. The Leafs can swap Sandin to ARI for Hayton. Both players are the same age. ARI has seemingly already shipped out Chychrun and they don't have any prominent LHD prospects. Sandin can play top 4 LHD with his pals Soderstrom and Timmins. Hayton is young C that can step into Toronto's lineup. The Leafs might also be able to tie Mrazek's contract into the deal. Sandin/Hayton also both happened to play junior together, I forget which team.

I like the idea of Muzzin but injuries are very likely. I’d want a solid backup who could step in then. Ie not giving up Sandin

 

[TML Dynasty]

Nylander trade proposals where people are getting hung up on getting the better player etc are easily solved with a third team if that hockey trade isn’t available.

Anyone wanting Nylander is in a win now scenario. So they trade prospects and picks for him.

A player we would want to replace would be a win now player on a team that’s not in that window….so they’d flip him for picks/prospects to retool/rebuild whatever

Trade Nylander for picks/prospects. Use those picks/prospects to get next player.

Or sign forsberg….

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

CROUSE - - MATTHEWS - - MARNER
BUNTING - - TAVARES - - TROCHECK
MARCHEMENT - PAUL - BLACKWELL
ENGVALL - - - KAMPF - - - LEMIEUX

RIELLY - - - - - BRODIE
CHYCHRUN - - BOOSH
GIORDANO - LILJIGREN

GIBSON
CHEAP BACKUP

LEAFS - COYOTES
Nylander, Sandin, SDA & 1st
for
Chychrun & Crouse (4 x 3.75)

LEAFS - KINGS
Jake Muzzin
for
Brendan Lemieux (2 x 1.5)

LEAFS - DUCKS
Nick Robertson, Justin Holl & Petr Mrazek
for
John Gibson

LEAFS - ANYONE
Alex Kerfoot for Picks

 

[WTFMAN99]

I think 0% chance LA moves Roy 1 for 1 for Muzzin. Roy is cheaper, younger, and better.

In saying that, I do think in an expanded trade, there could be something that makes sense. A few factors to consider:
1) With the rise of Durzi, plus already having Doughty and Walker (all RHD), Roy is a guy they could probably move, and they could also use a LHD.
2) With the Doughty/Kopitar window closing, they're probably in "win now" mode and willing to make a big swing.
3) They probably don't want to spend 10.8M on goaltending (Quick is 5.8M and Peterson is 5M)
4) They could use another bona fide top line scoring threat.
5) I'd imagine LA is one of the teams Muzzin would be willing to waive his NTC for, given past history.

With all of that in mind, I think a larger trade, something like Roy + Quick + Kaliyev + ??? for Nylander + Muzzin could make sense. They get to clear 5.8M from the goaltending position, bring in a top line scoring threat in his prime, and bring in a veteran LHD who they know well. We get to bring in a veteran goalie to be part of our tandem next year, add a legit top 4 RHD in his prime signed for two more years at 3.15M, and add 6'2 21 year old with solid middle 6 upside to the team. Additionally, we would actually clear quite a bit of capspace as we would go from spending 12.59M on two players to spending 9.85M on 3 players, which gives us quite a bit of $$ to play with in free agency to try to add another legit scoring threat up front (e.g. Smith, Copp, Nichushkin, etc). Also with Quick, we could risk going pretty cheap with the other goalie, preferably someone with upside like Comrie who you would hope would take the starter role.

I put the "???" because I'm not sure if LA would have to add. I think the deal as is would be pretty close to fair though, when you consider how valuable capspace is, the value of D over wingers, and the upside to Kaliyev. Muzzin I frankly see as being pretty close to a full capdump.

For 88, I would want more than a middling roster player (Kaliyev), a cap dump in Quick and maybe at best a #4D.

I offered Muzzin for Roy because LAK have Doughty, Durzi, Walker, Roy and Clarke coming up. Plus I believe some other RD prospects. Their cap situation is fine too.

 

[Americanadian]

For 88, I would want more than a middling roster player (Kaliyev), a cap dump in Quick and maybe at best a #4D.

I offered Muzzin for Roy because LAK have Doughty, Durzi, Walker, Roy and Clarke coming up. Plus I believe some other RD prospects. Their cap situation is fine too.

This board significantly underrates Roy. He would be the Leafs #1 RHD and a perfect fit with Rielly (strong defensively) and he's on a great contract for 2 more years (same term as Nylander). Him for Nylander 1 for 1 would legitimately be fair value based on on ice value and contract value imo.