The 2024-2025 Season: A simple calculation to keep Matthews and Nylander?

[Macallan18]

It's not as complicated as I think some folks think. They essentially just have to be able to ride Tavares' contract out for one season, then they get a bunch of breathing room, even with the eventual new Marner deal (the cap will also keep going up too).

Personally I'd likely go down that route - especially if the Leafs manage to go on a deeper playoff run this post-season.

and then maybe Tavares signs a super cheap extension ala Giordano and Spezza if we show some loyalty

 

[Sypher04]

i can't imagine matthews staying in toronto, no matter what the leafs will offer him. he's off to the us imho.

Cool. Based on nothing at all

 

[ACC1224]

I was going on the assumption that his decline will continue.

His points have been consistent the last three years.

 

[ULF_55]

Fletcher was alright. Not perfect by any means but built a competitive team from very little. Sundin and Gilmour trades were incredibly lopsided for the Leafs.

Obviously referring to Fletcher V2.

 

[andora]

the 24/25 season could be tight as hell with matthews and nylander new contracts.

for this exercise
- i increased cap by 1 million until 25/26 and i took a mid range guess and put at 89 million.
- matthews 16% of the cap at 84.5 million. i stayed modest for the point of this.
- nylander 9.5 million, a bit aggressive BUT not outlandish.
- i gave liljegren a second contract of 4 million (long term - partly in my belief in him)
- sandin i gave a first contract of 1.6 million (signed this year for 3 years) and a second contract of 3.75 million (mid term)
- i gave anderson a second contract of 1.4 million 3 yrs (moot point, put any young guy here)

First set is 24/25 and second set is 25/26. kind of shows what we could look at relative to open spots for a full 23 roster versus running a 20 man. i took the current team from capfriendly who is currently counting against the cap and went from there. i did not go into other young guys graduating deeply because by 24/25 half of our decent home grown will have needed 2nd contracts..

looking at this - of course estimates - we already have 57% committed to forwards in 24/25 with 6 open spots. with a mid range guess at 89 million for 25/26 there is 43% already committed with 7 open spots.

neither of these years have any goalie signed.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]2024/25[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]LW[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]C[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]RW[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total Cap[/TD]
[TD]$84,500,000[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]open slots[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]MATTHEWS
13.52[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]MARNER[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]total forward %[/TD]
[TD]48,423,000[/TD]
[TD]57%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]cap space[/TD]

[TD]

22,977,000​

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]TAVARES[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]NYLANDER
@9.5[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]total defence %[/TD]
[TD]13,100,000[/TD]
[TD]27%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]$/player w xtra[/TD]
[TD]1,641,214.29[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]JARNKROK[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]total goaltending %[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]$/player w/o xtra[/TD]
[TD]2,088,818.18[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]ANDERSON[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]84%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]full roster[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]EXTRA[/TD]
[TD]X[/TD]
[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]16%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]min roster[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]G[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]REILLY[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]LIJEGREN 4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]SANDIN 1.6[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]EXTRA[/TD]
[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]2025/26[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]LW[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]C[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]RW[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total Cap[/TD]
[TD]$89,000,000[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]open slots[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]MATTHEWS
13.52[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]MARNER
@11.5[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]total forward %[/TD]
[TD]38,020,000[/TD]
[TD]43%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]cap space[/TD]

[TD]

35,730,000​

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]NYLANDER
9.5[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]total defence %[/TD]
[TD]15,250,000[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]$/player w xtra[/TD]
[TD]2,382,000.00[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]JARNKROK[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]total goaltending %[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]$/player w/o xtra[/TD]
[TD]2,977,500.00[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]ANDERSON[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]83%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]full roster[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]EXTRA[/TD]
[TD]X[/TD]
[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]17%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]min roster[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]G[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]REILLY[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]LIJEGREN
4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]SANDIN
3.75[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]EXTRA[/TD]
[TD]X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[andora]

these pasting over sucked.. sorry about that

 

[zeke]

these pasting over sucked.. sorry about that

FYI you can build rosters using ArmchairGM at capfriendly.com and they do all the math for you.

 

[andora]

FYI you can build rosters using ArmchairGM at capfriendly.com and they do all the math for you.

yeah but where is the fun in that

 

[Notsince67]

Matthews will sign a 1 yr deal if the cap is exploding as much as it is the year after he signs. It would be an absolute blessing to us to get him long term the year before, but hes elite and can bet on himself for 1 year.

Nylanders gonna get 10+ so ya

An 8 year deal with Matthews next contract would be at a lower cap hit than a one year deal.
No way does Nylander get 10+MM. He has yet to register a point per game. A contract like that would put Marner into the stratosphere in the next year. Nobody is that stupid.

 

[notDatsyuk]

His points have been consistent the last three years.

Overall points yes, but his goals per game has dropped each year while his assists has risen.

It's even more significant if you look at even strength goals, which have dropped from .45 to .30 to .27 to .21.

Over the last three years while his assist have risen (.54 to .55 to .62) the percentage of them that are secondary assists has gone from .29 to .42 to .57, reflecting that more and more he is relying on other people to earn him points.

 

[notDatsyuk]

An 8 year deal with Matthews next contract would be at a lower cap hit than a one year deal.
No way does Nylander get 10+MM. He has yet to register a point per game. A contract like that would put Marner into the stratosphere in the next year. Nobody is that stupid.

You're right - 80 points in 81 games is nowhere near ppg.

 

[HockeyVirus]

I was going on the assumption that his decline will continue.

He's the same he has always been. People compare him to Matthews and say he's cooked. No, Matthews is one of the best players in the world and would make anyone look bad in comparison.

 

[andora]

so kind of looking at 2024-2025 there are 4 signed players - Tavares, Marner, Jarnkrok, and Reilly. 37% of the project 84.5 million.

just playing with the same same numbers i used before, and randomly using cap allocation of:
60% forwards
30% defence
10% goaltending

- matthews 13.52 million on extension (modest)
- nylander 9.5 million (no idea)
- liljegren a second contract of 4 million (long term - partly in my belief in him)
- sandin i gave a first contract of 1.6 million (signed this year for 3 years) and a second contract of 3.75 million (mid term)
- i gave anderson a second contract of 1.4 million 3 yrs (moot point, put any young guy here)

So with these 9 players - they are 61.523 million (73%). using the 60/30/10 number, that leaves:
Forwards - 6 open spots (4xLW / 2xC) - 2.277 million left over
Defence - 3 open spots - 12.125 million left over
Goaltending - 2 open spots - 8.45 million left over

let's say we go a bit bargain on goaltending - call it 5 million total (Samsonov for example earns mid range contract. that 3.45 can go to forwards, leaving 5.727 for forward. add that to the 12.125 for 17.852 at an average of 1.98 million per each roster forward/defenceman needed.

LW		C		RW
X		MATTHEWS		MARNER
X		TAVARES		NYLANDER
X		X		JARNKROK
X		X		ANDERSON
EXTRA	X	X
DEFENSE PAIRINGS				Goaltending
REILLY		LIJEGREN		X
SANDIN		X		X
X		X
EXTRA	X

let's add guys that have current real contracts - ELCs. this makes:
Forwards: 50,097,445 - or 59%
Defence: 15,621,112 or 18.5%
Goaltending: 5 million or 6%

Leaving 16.18 for 4 forwards - or 4.045 million per. Does this cover potential raises of Nick Robertson, and any other young guy that plays themselves into a role? (Holmberg, steeves, douglas, abruzzese (expires after this year), ellis etc...

none of this factors in Bunting, Kampf, Engvall, or either of the vet dmen that could end up staying (brodie/muzzin).

this can't be competitive for this 24/25 season - this has to be the step back year (i would argue next season is too). it does point out the potential benefit of playing the long game and trading nylander this year and regaining something young and cost controlled for the next wave.

LW		C		RW
Voit - 817,778		MATTHEWS		MARNER
X		TAVARES		NYLANDER
X		Hirvonen - 856,667		JARNKROK
X		X		ANDERSON
EXTRA	X	X
DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS				G
REILLY		LIJEGREN		Samsonov
SANDIN		Niemela - 856,667		Backup - tandem 5
Kokkonen - 846,667		Villeneuve - 817,778
EXTRA	X

 

[notDatsyuk]

He's the same he has always been. People compare him to Matthews and say he's cooked. No, Matthews is one of the best players in the world and would make anyone look bad in comparison.

Read the post two above yours. Both the stats and the eye test show that he's not the same.

I certainly hope nobody is foolish enough to compare him to Matthews. I know I don't.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Read the post two above yours. Both the stats and the eye test show that he's not the same.

I certainly hope nobody is foolish enough to compare him to Matthews. I know I don't.

Do they? Or do they show year 1 he played with Marner an elite playmaker so he scored more goals. Then he split half the year with Marner before Babcock firing and Keefe swapped them. Then he has struggled to find chemistry with Nylander as they are simply different players so yeah.

Put him back with Marner and he'll score 40 again

 

[notDatsyuk]

Do they? Or do they show year 1 he played with Marner an elite playmaker so he scored more goals. Then he split half the year with Marner before Babcock firing and Keefe swapped them. Then he has struggled to find chemistry with Nylander as they are simply different players so yeah.

Put him back with Marner and he'll score 40 again

Did you actually read that post?

 

[HockeyVirus]

Did you actually read that post?

Yes. He started scoring lots of goals, then his goals went down and he got assists then secondary assists. Guess what, that matches up with what I said. And last I checked, assists are assist and are also points so who cares.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Yes. He started scoring lots of goals, then his goals went down and he got assists then secondary assists. Guess what, that matches up with what I said. And last I checked, assists are assist and are also points so who cares.

No. It shows that while his points totals are staying fairly constant, he is relying more and more on the PP (the best in the league) and on other players (not just other players scoring, but other players setting up other players to score).

He is nowhere near as effective a player as he was even two seasons ago.

 

[Notsince67]

You're right - 80 points in 81 games is nowhere near ppg.

After 5 years, he has yet to step over that pretty low threshold.

 

[81Leafs50]

Matthews will sign 3 5yr deals with the Leafs to maximize money earned. 21-26, 26-31, 31-36. His next cap hit will be 12.6 and who knows what his last deal will look like. Probably similar to Ovie in WSH. Leafs have 4 contracts on the books for when Matthews and Nylander are UFA. The cap will be approximately $85M that summer.

 

[andora]

Matthews will sign 3 5yr deals with the Leafs to maximize money earned. 21-26, 26-31, 31-36. His next cap hit will be 12.6 and who knows what his last deal will look like. Probably similar to Ovie in WSH. Leafs have 4 contracts on the books for when Matthews and Nylander are UFA. The cap will be approximately $85M that summer.

12.6 helps a bit regarding constructing around him

What do you project on nylander

 

[HockeyVirus]

No. It shows that while his points totals are staying fairly constant, he is relying more and more on the PP (the best in the league) and on other players (not just other players scoring, but other players setting up other players to score).

He is nowhere near as effective a player as he was even two seasons ago.

Who gives a shit? A point is a point. Last I checked a goal is a goal. You know how rare it is to have 5v5 scorers like Matthews?

 

[Sypher04]

After 5 years, he has yet to step over that pretty low threshold.

Low threshold? Only 54 players in the NHL finished the season a point per game, and 10 of them played less than 5 games. You’re being ridiculous

 

[notDatsyuk]

After 5 years, he has yet to step over that pretty low threshold.

Oddly enough, nobody else on the Leafs who has played mostly second line minutes has stepped over that pretty low threshold.

 

[Notsince67]

Low threshold? Only 54 players in the NHL finished the season a point per game, and 10 of them played less than 5 games. You’re being ridiculous

How many forwards that make 10MM+ have never had a point a game season. as was the context of the conversation.