The 2024-2025 Season: A simple calculation to keep Matthews and Nylander?

[andora]

His first round of negotiations had comparables, why wouldn't this one?

Who were the main ones back then i recall pastrnak

Whos i shaping up to be his comparables in your opinion next time

We're not in cap hell now, and even if your likely incorrect guesses were correct, it's an entirely different situation because the cap will actually be rising throughout those next contracts, and thus they'd take up a smaller percentage of the overall cap.

it's 2 years out - but if it is 84.5 come 24/25 and matthews / nylander are consistent and replicate seasons 85%-100% or better to this past year - what would you project their raises to be?

 

[PromisedLand]

An 8 year deal with Matthews next contract would be at a lower cap hit than a one year deal.
No way does Nylander get 10+MM. He has yet to register a point per game. A contract like that would put Marner into the stratosphere in the next year. Nobody is that stupid.

Have you been introduced to the current GM of the Leafs yet?

 

[andora]

Matthews is writing his own ticket and it is accepted

Nylanders deal could be the tough one

Who can we project as comparables 2 years from now for contracts

 

[PromisedLand]

KInd of like Fletcher, Nonis and Burke.

I don't know man. None of the prior GMs: exclude Quinn in recent memory

JFJ, Fletcher, Burke, Nonis

had the benefit of "rebuild" with plenty of cap space, players like Matthews, Nylander, Marner on the roster and plenty of assets (picks/other prospects)

If we really do the proper comparison Dubas IMO is not only one of the worst GMs in the Leafs history; he is one of the worst GMs in all of sports not just hockey

Matthews is writing his own ticket and it is accepted

Nylanders deal could be the tough one

Who can we project as comparables 2 years from now for contracts

Today's cap hit Nylander is easily worth anywhere between 9 to 10 AAV on the 8 year deal. Two years from now if he keeps up his production, that cap hit is only going to go up.

Note: Matthews and Marner benefit from playing with each other. Nylander had to drag Tavares and some plug on his line. The scenario is not the same

 

[andora]

I don't know man. None of the prior GMs: exclude Quinn in recent memory

JFJ, Fletcher, Burke, Nonis

had the benefit of "rebuild" with plenty of cap space, players like Matthews, Nylander, Marner on the roster and plenty of assets (picks/other prospects)

If we really do the proper comparison Dubas IMO is not only one of the worst GMs in the Leafs history; he is one of the worst GMs in all of sports not just hockey



Today's cap hit Nylander is easily worth anywhere between 9 to 10 AAV on the 8 year deal. Two years from now if he keeps up his production, that cap hit is only going to go up.

Note: Matthews and Marner benefit from playing with each other. Nylander had to drag Tavares and some plug on his line. The scenario is not the same

Yeah agreed for most part.. tkachuks deal would be the mark if he was signing now likely or a bit less

But who is being watched you think.. pastrnak.. aho?

 

[PromisedLand]

Is there a maximum limit to the amount of signing bonus money that could be given out at one time?

Let’s say the Leafs pay Matthews $15 million over 8 years. Could they pay the bulk of the $120 million up front minus the base salary per year?

Just wondering how create and aggressive an NHL team could be should it choose to be.

EDIT: not recent but from 2021

 

[Big Muddy]

I think they start pushing the cap a little further next year. Yes I am aware the NHL and NHLPA and trying to get the books straight but with

Given that COVID has hit owner revenues very hard for the last 2 years, I got to believe that owners will want to return to the black and keep cap increases very modest for the next couple of years. The majority of owners will likely value that more than catering to a small number of deep pocketed teams and their cap woes.

Given interest rate increases, teams that borrow money will see their costs rise as well. The economic situation in North America is hardly upbeat these days as well.

 

[PromisedLand]

Yeah agreed for most part.. tkachuks deal would be the mark if he was signing now likely or a bit less

But who is being watched you think.. pastrnak.. aho?

don't think Pastrnak is a direct comparable to Nylander; same with Aho. Nylander at least at the moment is playing behind Matthews/Marner; both Pastrnak and Aho are the first line offense for their respective teams.

Nylander could potentially argue that if he played with Matthews and/or Marner he would put up similar numbers. I guess it might depend on how Willy's seaosns go this year and next year. Because if he keeps producing like he did last season Willy is probably going to be around 9.5 to 10.5 AAV starting point....

 

[Notsince67]

don't think Pastrnak is a direct comparable to Nylander; same with Aho. Nylander at least at the moment is playing behind Matthews/Marner; both Pastrnak and Aho are the first line offense for their respective teams.

Nylander could potentially argue that if he played with Matthews and/or Marner he would put up similar numbers. I guess it might depend on how Willy's seaosns go this year and next year. Because if he keeps producing like he did last season Willy is probably going to be around 9.5 to 10.5 AAV starting point....

10.5 would put him into the Barkov/Seguin territory of UFA salary cap signings assuming an 84.5mm cap. Color me skeptical

 

[andora]

don't think Pastrnak is a direct comparable to Nylander; same with Aho. Nylander at least at the moment is playing behind Matthews/Marner; both Pastrnak and Aho are the first line offense for their respective teams.

Nylander could potentially argue that if he played with Matthews and/or Marner he would put up similar numbers. I guess it might depend on how Willy's seaosns go this year and next year. Because if he keeps producing like he did last season Willy is probably going to be around 9.5 to 10.5 AAV starting point....

But that is a problem.. and i would have to believe and hope that management has some sort of list that they can track and compare.. i mean jesus i understand going into a negotiation with a player like matthews and not having comparables because of how unique he is..

But nylander ... it is nylander .. gotta be some comparable benchmark. And there should be no stuck behind excuse.. i am sure him and marners ice time are near the same and nylander still gets to play with a regular boring top line ppg center

Pastrnak is rumored to be 9.5
Tkachuk 9.5
Aho could be there next

I think if he starts over 10 in ask it could get dicy (unless he starts going 1.1-1.2 ppg)

 

[notbias]

Who were the main ones back then i recall pastrnak

Whos i shaping up to be his comparables in your opinion next time

Malkin was probably the best comparable for his first contract, Matthews was a slightly worse player and got paid slightly less.

Crosby got 3% more on a 5-year deal.

Toews got 3% less on a 5-year deal.

Bergeron and Aho got 4% less on 5-year deals.

All these deals make sense.

for future contracts, I think he is close to McDavid as a player, he is a much more complete player at the very least. I'm hoping somewhere around 15-16% for his next contract over 8 years.

 

[andora]

Yeah fair enough.. thank you. I was thinking/hoping 15% as well... obviously depending on what other special things he does in the next two years that 15% could be leaving a lot of money on the table

 

[nuck]

But that is a problem.. and i would have to believe and hope that management has some sort of list that they can track and compare.. i mean jesus i understand going into a negotiation with a player like matthews and not having comparables because of how unique he is..

But nylander ... it is nylander .. gotta be some comparable benchmark. And there should be no stuck behind excuse.. i am sure him and marners ice time are near the same and nylander still gets to play with a regular boring top line ppg center

Pastrnak is rumored to be 9.5
Tkachuk 9.5
Aho could be there next

I think if he starts over 10 in ask it could get dicy (unless he starts going 1.1-1.2 ppg)

Forsberg is 1.2ppg and signed for $8.5M x 8. I don't believe Willie can produce like that next year and I also don't think he would accept $8.5. He had his comps last time and held out a third of the season because he wouldn't take their money. He will never sign for a value deal, but it could become one once the cap takes off again. The Nylanders will play hardball just like last time and will squeeze the club as long as it takes to get paid.

The real issue is, on a club without the other three guys on mega deals, paying an extra million + isn't a big deal. 20 other teams would do that. When a team decides to overpay their guy like Buffalo with Eichel and later Skinner or San Jose with Hertl, its relatively painless to them but they set the inflationary standards for everyone. In a perfect world there would have been reasonable cap growth and the Leafs would have got a bit better value on their other 7-8 year forward deals but here we are. Willie's next deal will usher in another era of trying to flesh out a bottom 6 with $1.5M contracts.

Most Cup winners can do it without 4 ppg players and when "we can and we will" was conceived, it was on the basis that everyone wouldn't be pushing for a market setting deal. Time for a reset.

 

[andora]

Forsberg is 1.2ppg and signed for $8.5M x 8. I don't believe Willie can produce like that next year and I also don't think he would accept $8.5. He had his comps last time and held out a third of the season because he wouldn't take their money. He will never sign for a value deal, but it could become one once the cap takes off again. The Nylanders will play hardball just like last time and will squeeze the club as long as it takes to get paid.

The real issue is, on a club without the other three guys on mega deals, paying an extra million + isn't a big deal. 20 other teams would do that. When a team decides to overpay their guy like Buffalo with Eichel and later Skinner or San Jose with Hertl, its relatively painless to them but they set the inflationary standards for everyone. In a perfect world there would have been reasonable cap growth and the Leafs would have got a bit better value on their other 7-8 year forward deals but here we are. Willie's next deal will usher in another era of trying to flesh out a bottom 6 with $1.5M contracts.

Most Cup winners can do it without 4 ppg players and when "we can and we will" was conceived, it was on the basis that everyone wouldn't be pushing for a market setting deal. Time for a reset.

well said .. 25/26 will finally have flexibility .. the most we have had in a long time (incoming)... how much depends on nylander in my thoughts

 

[Menzinger]

don't think Pastrnak is a direct comparable to Nylander; same with Aho. Nylander at least at the moment is playing behind Matthews/Marner; both Pastrnak and Aho are the first line offense for their respective teams.

Nylander could potentially argue that if he played with Matthews and/or Marner he would put up similar numbers. I guess it might depend on how Willy's seaosns go this year and next year. Because if he keeps producing like he did last season Willy is probably going to be around 9.5 to 10.5 AAV starting point....

The Fiala and Forsberg contracts I think are a good case that he'll likely going to come under 9 mil (at least based on the current cap level). Especially if the Leafs are able to offer him the 8th year vs only 7 on another team

 

[81Leafs50]

12.6 helps a bit regarding constructing around him

What do you project on nylander

roughly 8-8.75M

 

[andora]

roughly 8-8.75M

let's hope

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I think the leafs are in trouble here...

Look at what these guys did to Dubas when he held ALL the leverage. Now they hold all the leverage. It's not going to be pretty. (Provided he still even holds the job by then.)

Matthews will stay but only if given a blank cheque. Fair enough. Maybe the best leaf player ever. I think we may see the first ever "max cap hit" contract in the nhl.

Nylander has proven to be all about the money... and will almost assuredly get more money on the open market than the leafs will be able to afford. So he's gone.

And Marner insists on being paid the same value as Matthews and, now that he holds all the leverage, he'll demand at least near Matthews money/term or he'll walk. Will management accept that? It will be 2 players taking up near 40% of the cap. I have no idea what they'll choose to do on that regard.

Tavares is the only bright light regarding next contracts. He's already made a boatload of money, is passionate about the city and team, and likely feels bad about not coming anywhere near t living up to his previous contract. He'll feel he "owes" the leafs. Even if a 50 point player by then, I doubt he'll want to retire. He'll sign on the cheap for the leafs for a couple years and play limited time as a faceoff/pp specialist.

 

[Racer88]

I think the leafs are in trouble here...

Look at what these guys did to Dubas when he held ALL the leverage. Now they hold all the leverage. It's not going to be pretty. (Provided he still even holds the job by then.)

Matthews will stay but only if given a blank cheque. Fair enough. Maybe the best leaf player ever. I think we may see the first ever "max cap hit" contract in the nhl.

Nylander has proven to be all about the money... and will almost assuredly get more money on the open market than the leafs will be able to afford. So he's gone.

And Marner insists on being paid the same value as Matthews and, now that he holds all the leverage, he'll demand at least near Matthews money/term or he'll walk. Will management accept that? It will be 2 players taking up near 40% of the cap. I have no idea what they'll choose to do on that regard.

Tavares is the only bright light regarding next contracts. He's already made a boatload of money, is passionate about the city and team, and likely feels bad about not coming anywhere near t living up to his previous contract. He'll feel he "owes" the leafs. Even if a 50 point player by then, I doubt he'll want to retire. He'll sign on the cheap for the leafs for a couple years and play limited time as a faceoff/pp specialist.

Some tough decisions need to be made over the next 2 years. Dubas cannot let any of those three walk for nothing or he will go down as the worst blunder in Leaf GM history

 

[AvroArrow]

They need to do everything they can to sign Matthews. Nylander still has prove he deserve another contract.

Basically PPG, he's proven it. He's a top line player on about 90 percent of teams in the league, top 6 on 100% of teams.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

Some tough decisions need to be made over the next 2 years. Dubas cannot let any of those three walk for nothing or he will go down as the worst blunder in Leaf GM history

And yet a bunch of Leafs fans want to trade Nylander for 1 year of Patrick Kane (who walks for nothing at the end of his deal)...

 

[ACC1224]

And yet a bunch of Leafs fans want to trade Nylander for 1 year of Patrick Kane (who walks for nothing at the end of his deal)...

Define 'a bunch'. One fan? Three?

 

[killer1980]

Matthews is gone 100%.He wants fame and fortune in the U.S. Toronto has served its purpose. He established himself as a bonafide goal scorer. Leafs won't be able to match what the big U.S. markets will offer.

 

[Havoc]

Matthews is gone 100%.He wants fame and fortune in the U.S. Toronto has served its purpose. He established himself as a bonafide goal scorer. Leafs won't be able to match what the big U.S. markets will offer.

Hockey players don't get "fame" in the US if it's the type of fame I think you're referring to. To max out fame as a hockey player he needs to win a cup with a Leafs logo on his jersey.

 

[WillyC]

Matthews is already playing King on the biggest stage in professional hockey… there is nothing bigger than where he is right now.

Plus, his current employers are the richest in the NHL.