The 2024-2025 Season: A simple calculation to keep Matthews and Nylander?

[Nineteen67]

Matthews is already playing King on the biggest stage in professional hockey… there is nothing bigger than where he is right now.

Plus, his current employers are the richest in the NHL.

Not according to his GM.

 

[Racer88]

Maybe Bieber can shoot him a couple of extra million under the table for him to stay in Toronto.

 

[Havoc]

Maybe Bieber can shoot him a couple of extra million under the table for him to stay in Toronto.

Pretty sure this happens as a regular occurrence anyways. If I was a billionaire owner I'm not letting some dumb flat cap stop me from keeping my stars. I'd arrange some off the books cash drop offs lol. Hire some ninjas to drop off the coordinates of the cash location under their doors.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Some tough decisions need to be made over the next 2 years. Dubas cannot let any of those three walk for nothing or he will go down as the worst blunder in Leaf GM history

He's already on pace to be one of the worst leaf gms but losing any of the three for nothing will cement his spot.

 

[andora]

61.5 million potentially on 8 players going into 24/25 off season

Tavares Marner Jarnkrok Reilly
Matthews Nylander Liljegren Sandin (unk) - 30 million for these 4

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

i can't imagine matthews staying in toronto, no matter what the leafs will offer him. he's off to the us imho.

I honestly just don't know anymore. I think it can go either way at this point.

 

[Batrous]

61.5 million potentially on 8 players going into 24/25 off season

Tavares Marner Jarnkrok Reilly
Matthews Nylander Liljegren Sandin (unk) - 30 million for these 4

Which is why I think Toronto will have to move one of Marner or Nylander. The team is too top-heavy to compete in terms of their cap management and one of the areas that will be at risk of falling apart because of it will be the defense as players such as Brodie and Muzmzie's contracts come due and offensive depth as over half of the current roster forwards have a year left on their contracts.

 

[34]

i can't imagine matthews staying in toronto, no matter what the leafs will offer him. he's off to the us imho.

Matthews is gone. Dubas is going to let him walk.

 

[FiveHoleo]

I don't know what the current cap projections are and given the last couple of years wouldn't hazard to etch any estimates in stone. That said, when the 2024-2025 season rolls around, it would seem both Muzzin and Brodie come off the books. Matthews and Nylander (if one or both hasn't been traded by then) also come off the books.

I wonder if management's using a simple calculation. If the cap rises to approximately $86M (accounting for an increase of a million a year) and Matthews is given a raise that equates to 15% of the cap, he comes in around $13M. If Nylander is given a raise up to 9% of the cap, he comes in at about 7.8M and let's round to $8M.

A year later, Tavares' $11M comes off the books. So...I mention Brodie and Muzzin as sort of bookends of insurance. Note, Murray's into UFA territory as well.

We patch one more year with Tavares and by that time, our (hopeful) promising prospects like Niemela and Knies are in their second or third ELC years.

Am I looking at this incorrectly, or will we have a 28 year old Nylander, a 27 year.old Marner, and a 26 year old Matthews to start the 2024-2025 season with a lot more to spend moving forward than we might have thought otherwise?

Obviously some sound spending has to take place until then, but...Perhaps we're in better shape than we realize?

Better math minds, by all means, please chime in.

Matthews is walking when he gets to UFA so none of this is relevant. We can all hope that it isn't the case, that being a Leaf means something to the guy, but we should all be well aware that isn't going to matter even if it is true. The guy sees himself as a fashionista and is friends with celebrities. There are countless better places than Toronto to expand on that sort of brand. Los Angeles has the Kopitar contract coming off the books, they are the obvious choice but Stamkos expires in Tampa that same offseason. We are all aware of how American players feel about playing in Canada and we would be so naive to think Toronto would be spared from that effect, especially given the departure of Kawhi after a championship. Make you future plans based on this certainty if you'd like them to be at all relevant when the time comes.

 

[ITM]

Matthews is walking when he gets to UFA so none of this is relevant. We can all hope that it isn't the case, that being a Leaf means something to the guy, but we should all be well aware that isn't going to matter even if it is true. The guy sees himself as a fashionista and is friends with celebrities. There are countless better places than Toronto to expand on that sort of brand. Los Angeles has the Kopitar contract coming off the books, they are the obvious choice but Stamkos expires in Tampa that same offseason. We are all aware of how American players feel about playing in Canada and we would be so naive to think Toronto would be spared from that effect, especially given the departure of Kawhi after a championship. Make you future plans based on this certainty if you'd like them to be at all relevant when the time comes.

As an opinion that's all well and good...But I'd like to point out your statements of certitude preclude any notion of hope that you mentioned. So it's one or the other:

A strong inclination based on external circumstances and the example of an American basketball player acquired in trade who returned first chance he got vs...An American who could've pulled a Lindros and didn't, who might decide to return...if our GM doesn't: (A) Re-sign him or; (B) Move him before hand.

So as to my opinion being irrelevant, I think you might have applied (or misapplied) a filter or two when considering the condition of my opinion.

I'm also on record as being quite bullish about our asset management. I hope Matthews stays and stays at a supplemental number. But my hope is greater for the club. It's always greater for the club.

Cheers.

 

[Menzinger]

Matthews is walking when he gets to UFA so none of this is relevant. We can all hope that it isn't the case, that being a Leaf means something to the guy, but we should all be well aware that isn't going to matter even if it is true. The guy sees himself as a fashionista and is friends with celebrities. There are countless better places than Toronto to expand on that sort of brand. Los Angeles has the Kopitar contract coming off the books, they are the obvious choice but Stamkos expires in Tampa that same offseason. We are all aware of how American players feel about playing in Canada and we would be so naive to think Toronto would be spared from that effect, especially given the departure of Kawhi after a championship. Make you future plans based on this certainty if you'd like them to be at all relevant when the time comes.

Though hockey is a bit of a different story when it comes to fame/media attention. There's

Matthews may indeed end up being drawn south, but it's not necessarily as straightforward as one thinks. Even in LA he'd be a 3rd tier sports celebrity vs being one of the top stars in the entire sport by leading the Leafs. Tampa's a media backwater and he's certainly not giving them a discount so don't see them being remotely competitive for him unless they dump multiple pieces.

The number of teams that have a legit shot at Matthews are fairly small.

 

[leafsfan5]

Matthews is gone. Dubas is going to let him walk.

One does not let a players like Matthews walk lol

He leaves only if he wants to, otherwise he's here for the rest of his career

 

[34]

One does not let a players like Matthews walk lol

He leaves only if he wants to, otherwise he's here for the rest of his career

He is leaving.

 

[Dekes For Days]

He is leaving.

He's staying. This sports media-induced panic is quite funny.

 

[666]

Pretty sure this happens as a regular occurrence anyways. If I was a billionaire owner I'm not letting some dumb flat cap stop me from keeping my stars. I'd arrange some off the books cash drop offs lol. Hire some ninjas to drop off the coordinates of the cash location under their doors.

No cash bro. Crypto and NFT's will do it

 

[Mess]

Though hockey is a bit of a different story when it comes to fame/media attention. There's

Matthews may indeed end up being drawn south, but it's not necessarily as straightforward as one thinks. Even in LA he'd be a 3rd tier sports celebrity vs being one of the top stars in the entire sport by leading the Leafs. Tampa's a media backwater and he's certainly not giving them a discount so don't see them being remotely competitive for him unless they dump multiple pieces.

The number of teams that have a legit shot at Matthews are fairly small.

Something to keep in mind is that in the off season a team is allowed to use a slush fund that allows them to overspend the cap ceiling by 10%.

So a ~$85 mil cap gives every team a $8.5 mil extra temp free cap space. Sign first and then work out the cap situation thereafter.

The Leafs didn't have the available cap space to sign Tavares to $11 mil, as they needed to deal their 1st to dump Marleau contract to become cap compliant again thereafter as well as walk away from players like JVR.

Now I think if Matthews does leave it will be most likely for California where he lives in the off season (Born in San Ramon, California), and becomes a part of the Hollywood scene, and its close enough to Arizona friends and family and there are 3 teams in that state that all could have the cap space to afford him.. Vegas is the other team always in the mix and vicinity, and close to home.

He might see it as working in Canada, but living in the USA his own country when not playing.

I also think that being marketed as a American in home country will draw him lots more potential earnings in sponsorships and endorsements from big USA located companies..

 

[Menzinger]

Something to keep in mind is that in the off season a team is allowed to use a slush fund that allows them to overspend the cap ceiling by 10%.

So a ~$85 mil cap gives every team a $8.5 mil extra temp free cap space. Sign first and then work out the cap situation thereafter.

The Leafs didn't have the available cap space to sign Tavares to $11 mil, as they needed to deal their 1st to dump Marleau contract to become cap compliant again thereafter as well as walk away from players like JVR.

Now I think if Matthews does leave it will be most likely for California where he lives in the off season, and becomes a part of the Hollywood scene, and its close enough to Arizona friends and family and there are 3 teams in that state that all could have the cap space to afford him.. Vegas is the other team always in the mix and vicinity, and close to home.

I also think that being marketed as a American in home country will draw him lots more potential earnings in sponsorships and endorsements from big USA located companies..

I do think LA is probably one of the more likely locations that he'd end up if he chooses to leave the Leafs.

Though I'm not sure it'll be more lucrative in terms of endorsements. He'll be picking up the scraps there from what the stars of the more popular Lakers/Rams/Dodgers leave for him

 

[Mess]

I do think LA is probably one of the more likely locations that he'd end up if he chooses to leave the Leafs.

Though I'm not sure it'll be more lucrative in terms of endorsements. He'll be picking up the scraps there from what the stars of the more popular Lakers/Rams/Dodgers leave for him

Ever since Gretzky left Edmonton to play in LA the sport in no longer an after thought and have their own following now.

Even though it’s the offseason for Matthews and he's back home in Arizona, he was still in the public eye as his awesome fresh ink ended up making its way around online. Hockey fans, including Los Angeles Kings mascot Bailey, gave some hilarious input on what the tattoo might represent.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The Leafs didn't have the available cap space to sign Tavares to $11 mil, as they needed to deal their 1st to dump Marleau contract to become cap compliant again thereafter as well as walk away from players like JVR.

That's not true. JVR (and Bozak, Komarov, etc.) walked before Tavares was signed, and Marleau wasn't traded until a year later.

 

[Menzinger]

Ever since Gretzky left Edmonton to play in LA the sport in no longer an after thought and have their own following now.

Even though it’s the offseason for Matthews and he's back home in Arizona, he was still in the public eye as his awesome fresh ink ended up making its way around online. Hockey fans, including Los Angeles Kings mascot Bailey, gave some hilarious input on what the tattoo might represent.

They do, but they're still likely the 4th most popular sports franchise in that city by a substantial margin behind those other teams. Matthews may end up heading to California due to weather/lifestyle but he'd be sacrificing popularity and likely money to do so. The Leafs can offer the 8th year and California has comparable tax rates to Ontario

 

[PromisedLand]

He is leaving.

bruh can I borrow your crystal ball? I really need to win the 50 million dollar lotto max jackpot

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Pretty sure this happens as a regular occurrence anyways. If I was a billionaire owner I'm not letting some dumb flat cap stop me from keeping my stars. I'd arrange some off the books cash drop offs lol. Hire some ninjas to drop off the coordinates of the cash location under their doors.

Except for Matthews, they don’t deserve a cent more than what they are paid already.

 

[Sypher04]

I’m sick and tired of people who talk about Matthews intentions in absolutes. Either way. You do not know anything about his desires or what will be important to him in his decision making process. We might have reasons here and there we suggest could be factors, we might have some degree of precedence we can think about, but nobody knows and if they tell you they do, they are trolling, plain and simple.

For every reasonable argument why Matthews would leave there is an equal or better reason to believe he’d stay.

We will see what happens and we should be prepared for anything but I’m optimistic

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Maybe Bieber can shoot him a couple of extra million under the table for him to stay in Toronto.

Justin Bieber spends the majority of his downtime in Los Angeles, California but has previously rented homes in Miami, New Jersey, New York,

 

[Racer88]

Justin Bieber spends the majority of his downtime in Los Angeles, California but has previously rented homes in Miami, New Jersey, New York,

That’s may be true the the Leafs are his team