The 2024-2025 Season: A simple calculation to keep Matthews and Nylander?

[notDatsyuk]

Who gives a shit? A point is a point. Last I checked a goal is a goal. You know how rare it is to have 5v5 scorers like Matthews?

If you can't see the difference, I can't help you.

I don't think anyone is foolish enough to compare him to Matthews, but there were 105 other forwards who scored as many or more ES goals last year.

 

[HockeyVirus]

If you can't see the difference, I can't help you.

I don't think anyone is foolish enough to compare him to Matthews, but there were 105 other forwards who scored as many or more ES goals last year.

Again, who cares? A point is a point. You are cherry picking things to be outraged about. Fact is, he is producing as much as he always has outside of his career season.

If the point you are making is he is having to evolve his game to find ways to continue contributing, no shit. We always knew he would slow down as the deal went on, and our PP wins us games as much as a 5v5 goal

 

[notDatsyuk]

How many forwards that make 10MM+ have never had a point a game season. as was the context of the conversation.

If the context of the conversation is forwards that make over $10M a season, why did you even mention Nylander, who makes $6.9M.

Actually, at that price, 80 points in 81 games looks like a real bargain.

 

[Mess]

Once the Leafs hand out raises and new contracts to Matthews, Marner and Nylaner at the expense of JT contract.

Are our Leafs going to go from 4 forwards using 1/2 their Salary Cap now to essentially 4 forwards using 1/2 their salary cap again?

Currently AM+MM+JT+WN = $40.5 mil

Best guess approximation.

Matthews $11.64 --> $15 mil AAV ( +$ 3.36 mil AAV)
Marner $10.9 mil ---> $12.5 mil AAV ( + $1.6 mil AAV)
Nylander $7 mil -----> $9 mil AAV ( + $2 mil AAV)
Tavares $11 mil ------> $5 mil AAV ( - $6 mil AAV)

After AM+MM+JT+WN = $41.5 mil (+/- +$1 to $2 mil)

From Cap Hell to Cap Hell ?

What if the Leafs haven't had substantial playoff in the next 2 seasons?

 

[Notsince67]

Oddly enough, nobody else on the Leafs who has played mostly second line minutes has stepped over that pretty low threshold.

Marner has been over that since he moved to a line with Kadri.
Are you suggesting that Nylander would have been over a PPG with Matthews because he sure didnt last year when they played together. 130:36 minutes together with Bunting and the line only scored 3 goals. 10+MM is not a salary that Nylander would command based on his history.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Again, who cares? A point is a point. You are cherry picking things to be outraged about. Fact is, he is producing as much as he always has outside of his career season.

If the point you are making is he is having to evolve his game to find ways to continue contributing, no shit. We always knew he would slow down as the deal went on, and our PP wins us games as much as a 5v5 goal

"A point is a point" is a very naive and shallow way of looking at it.

However, since what I originally responded to was your comment "He's the same he has always been", and you have now agreed that he isn't, I think the conversation is done.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Once the Leafs hand out raises and new contracts to Matthews, Marner and Nylaner at the expense of JT contract.

Are our Leafs going to go from 4 forwards using 1/2 their Salary Cap now to essentially 4 forwards using 1/2 their salary cap again?

Currently AM+MM+JT+WN = $40.5 mil

Best guess approximation.

Matthews $11.64 --> $15 mil AAV ( +$ 3.36 mil AAV)
Marner $10.9 mil ---> $12.5 mil AAV ( + $1.6 mil AAV)
Nylander $7 mil -----> $9 mil AAV ( + $2 mil AAV)
Tavares $11 mil ------> $5 mil AAV ( - $6 mil AAV)

After AM+MM+JT+WN = $41.5 mil (+/- +$1 to $2 mil)

From Cap Hell to Cap Hell ?

We're not in cap hell now, and even if your likely incorrect guesses were correct, it's an entirely different situation because the cap will actually be rising throughout those next contracts, and thus they'd take up a smaller percentage of the overall cap.

 

[Sypher04]

We're not in cap hell now, and even if your likely incorrect guesses were correct, it's an entirely different situation because the cap will actually be rising throughout those next contracts, and thus they'd take up a smaller percentage of the overall cap.

Agreed. Based on everything I’ve heard/read, its entirely likely the cap will increase by more than 10 million dollars the summer Marner and JT are due new deals

 

[notDatsyuk]

Marner has been over that since he moved to a line with Kadri.
Are you suggesting that Nylander would have been over a PPG with Matthews because he sure didnt last year when they played together. 130:36 minutes together with Bunting and the line only scored 3 goals. 10+MM is not a salary that Nylander would command based on his history.

Was that your point? That since he played a full season on the second line with a slow centre that we all know doesn't click with him (and vice versa) and came up one point short of ppg, he shouldn't have been paid $10M?

I agree. With that kind of production, he shouldn't have been paid more than $8.5-9M last season. Horrible contract by Dubas.

(I'm just funnin' with ya.)

 

[andora]

We're not in cap hell now, and even if your likely incorrect guesses were correct, it's an entirely different situation because the cap will actually be rising throughout those next contracts, and thus they'd take up a smaller percentage of the overall cap.

it's 2 years out - but if it is 84.5 come 24/25 and matthews / nylander are consistent and replicate seasons 85%-100% or better to this past year - what would you project their raises to be?

 

[Tairy Greene]

If we keep the core together it would be nice if JT takes a discount to play wing for a few years.

 

[andora]

it's 2 years out - but if it is 84.5 come 24/25 and matthews / nylander are consistent and replicate seasons 85%-100% or better to this past year - what would you project their raises to be?

to add to this - Tavares - if he continues his scoring at or around PPG with the type of player he is - what can you see him signing for *with a discount because i'm confident he would give one (relevant to market value)

 

[ACC1224]

Once the Leafs hand out raises and new contracts to Matthews, Marner and Nylaner at the expense of JT contract.

Are our Leafs going to go from 4 forwards using 1/2 their Salary Cap now to essentially 4 forwards using 1/2 their salary cap again?

Currently AM+MM+JT+WN = $40.5 mil

Best guess approximation.

Matthews $11.64 --> $15 mil AAV ( +$ 3.36 mil AAV)
Marner $10.9 mil ---> $12.5 mil AAV ( + $1.6 mil AAV)
Nylander $7 mil -----> $9 mil AAV ( + $2 mil AAV)
Tavares $11 mil ------> $5 mil AAV ( - $6 mil AAV)

After AM+MM+JT+WN = $41.5 mil (+/- +$1 to $2 mil)

From Cap Hell to Cap Hell ?

What if the Leafs haven't had substantial playoff in the next 2 seasons?

I think at this point we just need to assume that this Team will always be in Cap Hell.
How it's managed is the key, not great to date but hopeful going forward. (Aren't we always?)

 

[Notsince67]

If the context of the conversation is forwards that make over $10M a season, why did you even mention Nylander, who makes $6.9M.

Actually, at that price, 80 points in 81 games looks like a real bargain.

This was a response to a poster who claimed Willy will get 10+MM on his next contract. I actually fully agree that we get great value from him now.

 

[Shooter2x]

boom...matthews and nylander kept.

 

[notDatsyuk]

This was a response to a poster who claimed Willy will get 10+MM on his next contract. I actually fully agree that we get great value from him now.

Got it. Thanks.

I agree he probably won't get $10M on his next contract, but I don't think missing ppg by one will be the main reason.

 

[pcruz]

i can't imagine matthews staying in toronto, no matter what the leafs will offer him. he's off to the us imho.

What makes you think this?

 

[Havoc]

We're talking about a guy who packed up his bags as a teen, ditched his hometown and friends to better his game against tougher competition in Switzerland. There is no chance in hell he's leaving the kind of glory you can only achieve in Toronto by winning a cup here. Nobody will care after a year or 2 if he wins in the states. If he wins here he will be remembered for eternity. He already has a "I dont care" attitude to whatever the media says. They don't phase him at all the guy does whatever he wants when he wants.

It's not like we're going to low ball him, he's going to get a blank cheque.

 

[Mess]

I think at this point we just need to assume that this Team will always be in Cap Hell.
How it's managed is the key, not great to date but hopeful going forward. (Aren't we always?)

Wonder is there is a correlation between Leafs Cap Hell spending habits, and Leafs holding the NHL record now with least successful playoff team not having won a single playoff round in a Salary Cap CBA since 2004?

Nah, probably just a coincidence and bad luck.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

It would be nice if we were able to lockup Matthews long-term before a big cap jump.

The agents will already be factoring in the forecasted large increase in cap in like 3 or 4 years so I dont think that will make too much of a difference

 

[57 Years No Cup]

i can't imagine matthews staying in toronto, no matter what the leafs will offer him. he's off to the us imho.

Yup.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

If Matthews didn't want to sign here why would we need to worry about his NMC lol.

He doesn't want to stay here....but also wants to stay here?

Matthews situation will play out the exact same as Tkachuk. He either signs 8 year deal next July or he's gone.

Because it possibly limits the value of any return the Leafs might get if he decides a) he's not staying, and b) he refuses any or certain trades.

 

[Sundinisagod]

If the Leafs want to sign Matthews next off season, I think it will take 15 x 8, otherwise he’s likely to see what options are out there in the ufa market. I could also see him waiting til he’s a ufa, and ensuring we extend Marner first, before committing to us.

I think Nylander will be looking for 10 million per, and we’ll move on from him, so we can keep both Matthews and Marner.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

Shanahan and Dubas will sign and trade Matthews next summer to whatever team he wants to go to, for a top 6 forward or top 4 D, a 1st rounder and a great prospect. Likely another NHL player as well without a huge salary as a 4th piece.

I hope I'm wrong and we can worry about keeping all 4 of our big forwards under the cap in 24/25.

 

[ITM]

For the uninformed, what are the ways in which Toronto can sign Matthews to the equivalent of $14/$15M a year contract while reading $12/$13M (as an example) on the books?

The difference would essentially be a year's salary right? $16M over the span of eight years comes in handy year over year as we well know; $16M, or $32M is an easy pull for MLSE.

Is it optics?