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The 2024-2025 Season: A simple calculation to keep Matthews and Nylander?

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Apparently matthews wanted 13 x 8 when he had a career high of 70 points. Dubas got him "down" to 11.64 x 5.

After at least 2 rockets, a Hart and a lindsay, you think he's going to take 13 mil?
 
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JT would be eaten alive if he refuses to waive his NMC for buyout. Since if the Leafs is going to use their buyout on JT, it would mean he played like a bottom 6 player and might have like 40pts or something. Which also means, he would be the constant talk on all TO medias throughout the season even if the Leafs win the Cup at the end.

The only way JT can avoid these negative attentions is 1. The other top guys are a lot worse than him or 2. Leafs won the Cup the season before.
 
ULF_55 said:
They don't have to re-sign Tavares, and that is 3 years away.

At least he won't be a 35+, and he should be paid with no regard to his expiring contract.

Pay him what he's worth, if that is 5mm or 10mm, and I'm guessing the former.
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Leafs cap issues began with the unexpected and unbudgeted signing of Taveres and they could come to an end when it expires.

It would be so easy to simply spread his re-captured cap space to re-sign Matthews, Marner and Nylander to accommodate their increases, which was really the original plan as they were coming out of their ELCs.

JT then can be re-signed with the left over balance.

All of this however is subject to change for 2 main reasons 1) The UFA players decide to stay. 2) The Team wants them all back, has to be mutual agreement for both sides.

I suspect the results of the team over the course of the next 2-3 years until contracts expire will factor heavily into that decision process, both for the team and the players themselves going forward.
 
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Stamkos4life said:
Apparently matthews wanted 13 x 8 when he had a career high of 70 points. Dubas got him "down" to 11.64 x 5.

After at least 2 rockets, a Hart and a lindsay, you think he's going to take 13 mil?
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maybe "70pts" was always a dumb way to describe him, and neither Dubas nor his agent would ever have bothered with describing him like that?
 
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Is there a maximum limit to the amount of signing bonus money that could be given out at one time?

Let’s say the Leafs pay Matthews $15 million over 8 years. Could they pay the bulk of the $120 million up front minus the base salary per year?

Just wondering how create and aggressive an NHL team could be should it choose to be.
 
Stamkos4life said:
Apparently matthews wanted 13 x 8 when he had a career high of 70 points. Dubas got him "down" to 11.64 x 5.

After at least 2 rockets, a Hart and a lindsay, you think he's going to take 13 mil?
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Not impossible after you factor in the flat cap and maybe wanting to win a cup.
 
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I think their next contracts will come down to how much do they want to win as a group in Toronto.
Now I am not suggesting taking 30% off what they can get but they are smart guys and should understand that if they want to win while being a Leafs, they can't take the max and expect to have good players to support them to compete for the Cup.
For example, if we ask JT, MM, AM to take 1.5mil off each of their deal, which is about 13% in order to have a goalie like Vas(4.5 from those three plus Murray 4.75, thats 9.25mil) If they say nope and just let MGT to deal with it, bc I deserve this price, give it to me or I will leave.... I don't think I want those guys to be on the Leafs.
You look at Reilly who took less and extend right away. Then you look at Gio, who can easily get 2-3mil anywhere but choose to sign for 800k bc he wants to win with the Leafs. Those are guys that I want the Leafs to sign.
I am not saying AM should sign for 10mil for 8 years but if he wants to win with the Leafs and with the current players, he needs to take some sort of discount, bc thats the price for winning.
 
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Mess said:
Leafs cap issues began with the unexpected and unbudgeted signing of Taveres and they could come to an end when it expires.

It would be so easy to simply spread his re-captured cap space to re-sign Matthews, Marner and Nylander to accommodate their increases, which was really the original plan as they were coming out of their ELCs.

JT then can be re-signed with the left over balance.

All of this however is subject to change for 2 main reasons 1) The UFA players decide to stay. 2) The Team wants them all back, has to be mutual agreement for both sides.

I suspect the results of the team over the course of the next 2-3 years until contracts expire will factor heavily into that decision process, both for the team and the players themselves going forward.
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Unbudgeted?
 
Lets just hope there is an opportunity to re-sign Matthews when the time comes, or this is going to the biggest blunder in the history of the franchise. The recent departure of high-end American born players returning home is not leaving one feeling secure.

We all know the Matthews contract should have been 8 years, to protect the organization, of its most valuable asset and we wouldn't even be having this discussion right now.

Leafs Nation fans will be holding their collective breath for the next few years, and even it were possible would accept a 8 year X $15 mil extension today as overpaying and securing is better than losing for nothing.

Keeping him and at whatever price, might not even be a option on the table.
 
Mess said:
Lets just hope there is an opportunity to re-sign Matthews when the time comes, or this is going to the biggest blunder in the history of the franchise. The recent departure of high-end American born players returning home is not leaving one feeling secure.

We all know the Matthews contract should have been 8 years, to protect the organization, of its most valuable asset and we wouldn't even be having this discussion right now.

Leafs Nation fans will be holding their collective breath for the next few years, and even it were possible would accept a 8 year X $15 mil extension today as overpaying and securing is better than losing for nothing.

Keeping him and at whatever price, might not even be a option on the table.
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If he leaves for LA - which I don't think is likely, but playing the game - leaves for the lifestyle, then whether or not they signed him to 5 or 8 years really doesn't matter much, does it? Wouldn't it likely just mean he was less open to an 8 year extension and wanted to get to UFA as quickly as possible, in which case - there isn't much the Leafs could have done?

They just set a franchise record for wins and points. They haven't had playoff success - hopefully they do, but I don't think if he did leave it'll be about money or winning - two things the Leafs can match any team on realistically (past set aside - future winning wise).

Until an insider with some insight comes out and says he thinks there is a significant risk of him leaving, I wouldn't get too worried. Its all driven by fans of other teams.

The Leafs, even when they have been brutal, have not had a hard time keeping their best players if money/opportunity to play is equal. Auston may be different, but we shouldn't assume he will be for no reason.
 
Stamkos4life said:
Apparently matthews wanted 13 x 8 when he had a career high of 70 points. Dubas got him "down" to 11.64 x 5.

After at least 2 rockets, a Hart and a lindsay, you think he's going to take 13 mil?
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Assuming this is to me, my stated preference for team success is a conservative increase.

I don’t have and never stated what I think will happen. So your calculated surprised is misplaced.

Enjoining one series of negotiations to another might help to forecast where things will go, but we don’t know. I’m hopeful percentages will be used and that creative ways to offset the difference can be achieved.

If not, then a larger than optimal increase will have to be considered equally with if that amount is better spent elsewhere.
 
Stephen said:
Is there a maximum limit to the amount of signing bonus money that could be given out at one time?

Let’s say the Leafs pay Matthews $15 million over 8 years. Could they pay the bulk of the $120 million up front minus the base salary per year?

Just wondering how create and aggressive an NHL team could be should it choose to be.
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They’d only be able to pay one year worth of signing bonuses up front.
 
Stephen said:
Not impossible after you factor in the flat cap and maybe wanting to win a cup.
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I agree. I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to think, especially after the cap constraints of the last few years, that our stars may simply want to win and be willing to accept at least somewhat less to put themselves in the best position to do so.

I mean, take Matthews for example. He will have made over 70 mil by the end of his current contract. Over the next 8 years (whether that’s 1 or 2 deals is immaterial), I’d expect him to make (even with a discount) no less than another 100 million dollars, bringing him to 170 million plus by the age of 34. He’s most likely going to eclipse 200 million in career earnings and that’s just for playing hockey, none of the extras. While I don’t think it should be assumed he will, it doesn’t seem like a stretch to me that he leaves money on the table
 
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ACC1224 said:
What do we think Tavares gets on his next deal? 8-9?
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Unless he makes a massive turnaround in the next three years, I can't see him being offered more than 4 or 5 for a one or two year contract, and (hopefully) not here.
 
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Imo the timing of the Tavares 11m signing set the bar and as consequence inflated Matthews/Marner contracts - perhaps even correlates with the Nylander debacle. The original 3 see a guy come in who is a #1 centre with seemingly less forecasted production than what AM/MM could bring.

A few years later its clear that this cap structure is a detriment to the team's playoff success. However since the big signings, we have had Spezza sign league min, Giordano sign league min, but especially Rielly taking a team-friendly deal to stay for 8 years. I wonder if these recent team-friendly signings nudge the culture? Especially for Matthews and Marner.

Not saying the aforementioned will take a dramatic cut but lets say Matthews lands at ~13.734 which is almost 16% of a projected 86m cap space. Marner could extend his current cap hit at 10.93 for 8 years which is ~12.71 of the cap hit. Thats over a quarter of our cap space. Nylander at 9m is another 10.5% - theres 40% of cap space at a projected 86m.

Overtime those estimates ameliorate and we could have a much more competitive team as those 3 enter their best years. I will say that I still don't like the top heavy approach and if things don't improve then Nylander gets moved.
 
Jamason said:
Unless he makes a massive turnaround in the next three years, I can't see him being offered more than 4 or 5 for a one or two year contract, and (hopefully) not here.
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I was going on the assumption he stays around a ppg.
 
Sypher04 said:
I'd be shocked if JT was ready to hang ‘em up in only 3 years
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True, but if his only offers are in the $4-6M range for a year or two, and from other teams (which I suspect may be the case), he might consider it to stay here.
 
Matthews will sign a 1 yr deal if the cap is exploding as much as it is the year after he signs. It would be an absolute blessing to us to get him long term the year before, but hes elite and can bet on himself for 1 year.

Nylanders gonna get 10+ so ya
 
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