The 2024-2025 Season: A simple calculation to keep Matthews and Nylander?

[Mess]

Think of it his way as the "Race to $15 million."

If Auston Matthews' new AAV costs $15 million, each contending team will have to clear out $15 million in salary to fit Matthews in, with unknown consequences to the structure of that team, since multiple key players will need to be deleted in a short time to make it happen. We need to find $3.36 million max. only.

If not the Leafs California would be a logical big market state with 3 options moving him closer to Arizona and his family, and where he spends a lot of his offseason already.

Anaheim currently sits as the lowest Cap team in the league having to spend $+8.5 mil just to reach the cap floor. While currently rebuilding no big contracts could be well positioned in 2 years to go the mattresses via UFA.

Arizona his favourite and home town team is 2nd lowest also currently below the cap floor and the gap between the floor and the ceiling on any team is $16 mil, thus any team at the salary floor can spend $15 mil if required.

LA Kings is also another potential team in Cali and then 36 year old Anze Kopitar happens to be coming off the books at $10 mil the same time Matthews hits the market. Now between $10 mil and Matthews current deal is only an extra $1.64 mil more than Toronto needs to find.


So just like teams tank and position themselves when generational talent becomes available in their draft class, there are teams right now perhaps planning the same thing to add a generational #1C for Free come UFA season in 2 years. And while the race to $15 mil sounds like a large undertaking it is certainly probable for the team I mentioned above. So potential suitors with open wallets will be there, lets just hope Matthews prefers to stay rather then go.

Auston mother also has Mexican roots and Auston has spoken of his nearby relatives in Mexico and now living in California or Arizona ..

Have your grandparents gotten to know hockey? Any other family members in Mexico who have learned about the game because of you?

"My mom's side is from Hermosillo. It's about six hours south of Phoenix". "Most of them actually live in the (United) States now, whether it's Arizona or Colorado or California. They've gotten to know hockey quite a bit. They usually make the trip up to Phoenix for the game when we're in town, so they like to watch then. I'm sure they watch quite a bit throughout the regular season back home as well. My mom's side is a big family, lots of brothers and sisters, so usually when we go to one of those cities where one of them lives there, they like to come to the game and grab dinner or just catch up after the game."

PS. As noted in this thread Nylander hits the market at the very same time as Auston so Leafs have divided assets that need new deals not just Matthews $3.36 mil but also WN +$ 2-2.5 mil also that must be made available by Toronto unless their #1 plan is simply let Nylander walk and they use his cap space to re-sign Auston.

 

[RoadWarrior]

Matthews is gone if he doesn’t sign an extension by mid season. Then they have to trade him next summer.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Why do people think about locking these guys up before they have any playoff success is beyond me. If we don't go on a deep playoff run between now and then why would you wanna lock them up? To be honest, I wanna move on from both Willy and Marner.

 

[Mess]

Matthews is gone if he doesn’t sign an extension by mid season. Then they have to trade him next summer.

Leafs could very well be in the Matthew Tkachuk situation 1 year from now..

Matthews has a full NMC in his final year, so it would be high risk going into his last year without an extension in the works and likely coming.

All indications up to now is that Auston is wanting to stay, but until the next deal is official Leafs have to be aware of any and all possible outcomes and prepare accordingly.

I really think this years playoffs will be vital to this outcome, as a long playoff run even without a Cup would be great leverage for him to stay and complete the task on a competitive team. Another disappointing 1st or early round loss would run his record up to 0-7 in playoff success and then we might see all sorts of changes in player personnel and even management personnel going forward.

 

[ITM]

Leafs could very well be in the Matthew Tkachuk situation 1 year from now..

Matthews has a full NMC in his final year, so it would be high risk going into his last year without an extension in the works and likely coming.

All indications up to now is that Auston is wanting to stay, but until the next deal is official Leafs have to be aware of any and all possible outcomes and prepare accordingly.

I really think this years playoffs will be vital to this outcome, as a long playoff run even without a Cup would be great leverage for him to stay and complete the task on a competitive team. Another disappointing 1st or early round loss would run his record up to 0-7 in playoff success and then we might see all sorts of changes in player personnel and even management personnel going forward.

Toronto at its loudest and the city all things at all times breathing Maple Leafs playoffs hockey would be a heck of a thing to walk away from…and a wonderful signal to potential new signings.

 

[Legion34]

It’s easy. Worst case if you lock them up you take a step back for a year with cheap players and then load up with the cap jump of like 7-10 and Tavares taking a cut.

 

[Legion34]

Matthews is gone if he doesn’t sign an extension by mid season. Then they have to trade him next summer.

He can’t sign until July 1 2023

 

[egd27]

Matthews is gone if he doesn’t sign an extension by mid season. Then they have to trade him next summer.

Can't sign him before July 1, 2023......can't trade him after July 1, 2023 (without his permission).

May not have been the best advanced planning by Kid Kyle.

 

[ACC1224]

Can't sign him before July 1, 2023......can't trade him after July 1, 2023 (without his permission).

May not have been the best advanced planning by Kid Kyle.

Agreed but they can talk about it prior so they should(better) 100% know what he’s thinking to do.
I’d doubt they would trade him heading into a deadline anyways.

 

[Racer88]

What do we think Tavares gets on his next deal? 8-9?

A new team

 

[JTK1967]

Big star contracts are going to be interesting.
Not that they are in the same tier as players, but 9.5x8 for Matt in Florida is a good deal.

We are gonna see Huberdeau and Nathan Mac's next deals as well. Pasta, Miller, Tarasenko, Larkin, DeBrincatt in the next teir.

I have ZERO problem making Matthews the highest paid player in the sport, but I just dont want to be right back in the position where every off season we are looking ar 3 or 4 near league minimum deals praying for another Bunting like break out season.

Last time we signed all of our big guys we as fan base talked ourselves into saying they were good because the cap was going to go up. And again our stars are lining up to be free agents right when the next big jump happens.

 

[Mess]

Can't sign him before July 1, 2023......can't trade him after July 1, 2023 (without his permission).

May not have been the best advanced planning by Kid Kyle.

There is a 3rd option that combines the 2 above.. Leafs could sign him to the 8 years and then trade him for max return in a sign and trade similar to the Tkachuk trade that just went down.

If he is going to leave then that might be the best option.

 

[Buds17]

There is a 3rd option that combines the 2 above.. Leafs could sign him to the 8 years and then trade him for max return in a sign and trade similar to the Tkachuk trade that just went down.

If he is going to leave then that might be the best option.

I don't know if the two situations are all that comparable though since Tkachuk was still only going to be an RFA upon the completion of his now previous contract.

 

[notbias]

Can't sign him before July 1, 2023......can't trade him after July 1, 2023 (without his permission).

May not have been the best advanced planning by Kid Kyle.

"Matthews is leaving Toronto first chance he gets"

"OMG we gave him a NMC, we aren't able to get rid of him"

 

[Holymakinaw]

I think he signs something like 4-5 years at $1.5-2 million

lol

 

[ACC1224]

A new team

Not a chance. He retires a Leaf, as he should IMO.

I think he signs something like 4-5 years at $1.5-2 million

You believe his decline will be that great or he will give the team a large discount?

 

[ACC1224]

"Matthews is leaving Toronto first chance he gets"

"OMG we gave him a NMC, we aren't able to get rid of him"

Fairly pointless post.
Yes he could leave(I don’t think he will) and yes he has a NMC. I guess its good you’re up to speed on that.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Why would we even think of getting out of Tavares contract? He's the first player that came home in his prime to play for the team he cheered for as a kid.

It would be an insult to him for Leafs management to even think of, let alone ask him.

Certainly would impact other players considering to come back home. Not that I expect it to happen anytime soon, but why take that risk?

This is my opinion as well. To even approach him and ask would be a betrayal IMO. The best approach would be for Dubas to publicly state the idea is off the table if they want to play the long game and attract future UFAs.

 

[egd27]

Can't sign him before July 1, 2023......can't trade him after July 1, 2023 (without his permission).

May not have been the best advanced planning by Kid Kyle.

"Matthews is leaving Toronto first chance he gets"

"OMG we gave him a NMC, we aren't able to get rid of him"

Nowhere in my post did I suggest Matthews was "leaving the first chance he gets"

Please point out what is factually inaccurate in my post to elicit your attempt at mocking it?

 

[Havoc]

If Matthews didn't want to sign here why would we need to worry about his NMC lol.

He doesn't want to stay here....but also wants to stay here?

Matthews situation will play out the exact same as Tkachuk. He either signs 8 year deal next July or he's gone.

 

[ULF_55]

Could be lower. Malkin is 35 (a year older than Tavares will be at the end of his current deal) and just signed for 6.5 mil.

I think it depends where and what term too. He probably signs for less in Toronto than if he hits the open market

They don't have to re-sign Tavares, and that is 3 years away.

At least he won't be a 35+, and he should be paid with no regard to his expiring contract.

Pay him what he's worth, if that is 5mm or 10mm, and I'm guessing the former.

 

[nuck]

I don't know what the current cap projections are and given the last couple of years wouldn't hazard to etch any estimates in stone. That said, when the 2024-2025 season rolls around, it would seem both Muzzin and Brodie come off the books. Matthews and Nylander (if one or both hasn't been traded by then) also come off the books.

I wonder if management's using a simple calculation. If the cap rises to approximately $86M (accounting for an increase of a million a year) and Matthews is given a raise that equates to 15% of the cap, he comes in around $13M. If Nylander is given a raise up to 9% of the cap, he comes in at about 7.8M and let's round to $8M.

A year later, Tavares' $11M comes off the books. So...I mention Brodie and Muzzin as sort of bookends of insurance. Note, Murray's into UFA territory as well.

We patch one more year with Tavares and by that time, our (hopeful) promising prospects like Niemela and Knies are in their second or third ELC years.

Am I looking at this incorrectly, or will we have a 28 year old Nylander, a 27 year.old Marner, and a 26 year old Matthews to start the 2024-2025 season with a lot more to spend moving forward than we might have thought otherwise?

Obviously some sound spending has to take place until then, but...Perhaps we're in better shape than we realize?

Better math minds, by all means, please chime in.

The maximum allowable salary for 1 player is 20% of the cap so $16M+ in todays money. Matthews last deal he was coming off a season where he was only pacing for 87 points and he got over 14%. I am not sure he will shoot for the whole 20% but even with a "discount" he is more like $15M per.

Willie will be looking at building off of Forsbergs $8.5M deal so I think that is his floor. The Bruins board are assuming Pasta comes in over $9M and Kaprizov got $9M before the monster year so I think that is probably where Nylander will want to be.. Remember last time around he held out for a third of a season because he wasn't willing to accept Forsberg/Pastrnak money and this time the club has no RFA control. I guess he might accept $8.0 but I don't expect his deal to be close to that.

As far as Muzz and Brodie go a lot of people are just subtracting those salaries in their future estimates, as though the club might not have a need or a desire for another UFA or trade for a better D than they currently have in their system. Gio will be gone, Lilly and Sandins next deals are pending and Niemela may be a cheap star or he may be not quite their yet. I don't subtract the veteran D cost because the total D spending is barely middle of the pack and that was never the Dubas plan, the flat cap just made it that way.

I do agree the JT signing won't be repeated but IMO that is more likely to be spread amongst 2 or 3 salaries so half the lineup isn't bargain bin.

They will get jacked by the big 3 just like last time, but there won't an $11M UFA added so there is balance on the horizon. They just need to finish the Tavares deal.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Lets do the math first.,

The current Salary cap has been set for $82.5 mil for 2022-23 season and has gone up +$1 mil from previous. So lets be generous now that Covid rules are relaxed and Areas are full again that increases by +2 mil while in recovery. So 2023-24 --> $ 84.5 mil and then 2024-25 (when Matthews and Nylander expire) --> $86.5 mil upper limit.

The CBA also states no one player can make more than 20% Cap Hit % of his teams % based on the upper limit = approx $86.5 mil (2024-25) = $17. 3 mil max AAV allowable (+/- based on estimated).

The CBA also states that a players current team is allowed to offer an 8 year term, while every other outside team only 7 years max allowable.

With a 60 goal season and pair of Rocket Richard trophies as well as Hart and league regular season MVP the sky will be the limit on Matthews next deal, and he essentially has a blank cheque in his asking price.

Leafs could ask Matthews to give them a home team discount and offer 8 years at $15 mil = $120 mil ( C.H.% of 17.3), which then means a rival offer of 7 years X ~17 mil = $120 mil total.

So based on these calculations Matthews current $11.64 mil AAV ---> $15 mil AAV = +$3.36 mil raise (extra cap required).

Note: This does not include tax consideration into the offers only the straight math, as Tax free States could offer less than $17 mil to match actually after taxes take home pay.

CBA also says cap can only go up a million year until escrow paid off.

 

[socko]

It’s easy. Worst case if you lock them up you take a step back for a year with cheap players and then load up with the cap jump of like 7-10 and Tavares taking a cut.

Tavares needs a bus ticket out of town. The dead puck era is over and hockey has passed him by.

 

[Legion34]

Tavares needs a bus ticket out of town. The dead puck era is over and hockey has passed him by.

Sure I mean maybe we don’t offer him another contract. But a 4-5 million dollar deal is more likely. If he stays for much less and becomes a spezza he retires an absolute hero here. It hasn’t works out as he had hoped. But that would change things. Stay for a cheap deal, play 10 years as a leaf Anf he is a god.

Heck spezz is a sen who played 4th line C and he is a hero here