The 2024-2025 Season: A simple calculation to keep Matthews and Nylander?

[zeke]

unlike most every other good team the leafs have no serious longterm cap committments to players in their serious decline years. It's why they're one of the few top teams not to lose any core players this offseason and why they'll have plenty of flexibility going forward.

Also, Tavares wouldn't be "insulted" by being asked to waive his NTC at ages 32-34, by a team that's already paid him 80 million dollars, so they can keep their young core together.

Tavares needs a bus ticket out of town. The dead puck era is over and hockey has passed him by.

Tavares scoring ranks amongst full-time Centers:

21-22: #16
20-21: #11
19-20: #16
18-19: #7

 

[Jozay]

I think Nylander comes in closer to 10 than 8.

 

[Apotheosis]

Why would we even think of getting out of Tavares contract? He's the first player that came home in his prime to play for the team he cheered for as a kid.

It would be an insult to him for Leafs management to even think of, let alone ask him.

Certainly would impact other players considering to come back home. Not that I expect it to happen anytime soon, but why take that risk?

Because he sucks?

 

[Once]

I think OP proposed conservative estimates.

Re Mackinnon as AM's baseline: I don't think Matthews' negotiations will involve any league comparable, he likely commands ~$15m. Nylander will be in the 9 range. Can't see JT taking any more than a 50% cut, probably in the 5.5-6m range.

 

[notbias]

Fairly pointless post.
Yes he could leave(I don’t think he will) and yes he has a NMC. I guess its good you’re up to speed on that.

The general consensus of the "he will leave crew" is he wants to go play in the US, but will also wait to do it in free agency instead of waiving his NMC, just no logic.

Glad you added nothing to the convo like usual.

I think OP proposed conservative estimates.

Re Mackinnon as AM's baseline: I don't think Matthews' negotiations will involve any league comparable, he likely commands ~$15m. Nylander will be in the 9 range. Can't see JT taking any more than a 50% cut, probably in the 5.5-6m range.

His first round of negotiations had comparables, why wouldn't this one?

Because he sucks?

What is your definition of suck? He's still a very good player, just overpaid.

 

[ACC1224]

The general consensus of the "he will leave crew" is he wants to go play in the US, but will also wait to do it in free agency instead of waiving his NMC, just no logic.

Perhaps if you quoted the correct posts people will understand what you're talking about.
You have a habit of making no sense and attributing things to "the same people" which you've never shown any proof that they actually exist.

 

[ITM]

Part of my conservative estimate is the structure on display of the more successful playoffs teams.

Hopefully a lesson of taking slightly less to achieve more will have been learned.

 

[andora]

His first round of negotiations had comparables, why wouldn't this one?

Who were they back then

 

[PromisedLand]

Based on cap friendly Murray, Muzzin and Brodie are UFAs same time Willy and Matthews are. That gives an additional 15.2M in cap space.

You sign Matthews to around 14 x 8 (3M raise) and Willy to about 9 x 8 (3M raise) leaves you with 9.6M in cap space + 2M increase in cap to approx 11.6M in cap space to sign 2Ds/extend Lily and Sandin (if possible).

Next season both Kefoot and Holl are off the cap that is an additional 3.5 +2 = 5.5M cap space. + 9.6M = 15M space can be created for 2024-2025 season (basically do a 1 yr deal next season to replace both Kerfoot and Holl).

Two years from now you can potentially ice this roster.

XXX-Matthews-Marner
XXX-Tavares-Nylander
XXX-XXX-XXX
XXX-XXX-XXX

Rielly-XXX
Sandin-Liljegren
XXX-XXX

XXX
XXX

15M in cap space to fill in the XXX (8F), 3D, 2G in total 13 players to sign in 15M. Now add in other fillers we have on the roster:

Engvall (2.3M) + Kampf (1.5M) + Simmonds (0.95M) + Clifford (0.9M) + Anderson (0.75M) + Gaudette (0.75M) + Kubel (1M) + Gio (0.8M) = total: approx 9M

Grand Total 15M + 9M = 24M to fill in 13 roster players. Note: Sandin and Lily will eat some of the cap here

Ideally we would have Robertson, Knies and Amirov on ELCs. But as luck would have it the unfortunate circumstance with Amirov (I hope he gets better soon not necessarily for Leafs but for his own quality of life).

Leafs gotta luck out with their drafting for top6D, at least one quality goalie, and one top9 forward.

Next season Tavares comes off the cap so that will bring in 11M in cap space of which some of it will go to Marner. I think Leafs should try to retool. They should give up the hope of cup run as long as Tavares is on the roster IMO. They should try to get picks/prospects and not throw them to get a run now. It would be nice if Leafs could "Tank" at least once before Tavares is off the cap.

I think starting now Leafs should look to flip Holl and Kerfoot for some picks and gather that draft capital.

 

[Once]

His first round of negotiations had comparables, why wouldn't this one?

I read (don't have time to search for the source) that during the last contract negotiations, Matthews' agent took the stance that Matthews has no league comparable and should be paid with that in mind. It clearly worked given the bloated structure of his contract...it will happen again but this time hopefully its for 8 years.

Back up the Brinx truck I don't care how much he gets paid because there is no way we come close to replicating his production and presence.

 

[PromisedLand]

Think of it his way as the "Race to $15 million."

If Auston Matthews' new AAV costs $15 million, each contending team will have to clear out $15 million in salary to fit Matthews in, with unknown consequences to the structure of that team, since multiple key players will need to be deleted in a short time to make it happen. We need to find $3.36 million max. only.

I think Kings have Kopitar coming off the cap the same season (10M) and so is Quick (5.8M).

Other potential competitors: (based on top 15 UFAs coming off of the cap with at least 6M AAV)

 

[Once]

Part of my conservative estimate is the structure on display of the more successful playoffs teams.

Hopefully a lesson of taking slightly less to achieve more will have been learned.

100% with you. Can only hope that the players themselves see it that way..

 

[PromisedLand]

Tavares scoring ranks amongst full-time Centers:

21-22: #16
20-21: #11
19-20: #16
18-19: #7

Great now do the same math for his cap hit....

 

[WillyC]

Not a chance. He retires a Leaf, as he should IMO.


You believe his decline will be that great or he will give the team a large discount?

Large Discount… plus, I think he stays employed by MLSE after he retires.

 

[Stephen]

I think Kings have Kopitar coming off the cap the same season (10M) and so is Quick (5.8M).

Other potential competitors: (based on top 15 UFAs coming off of the cap with at least 6M AAV)

View attachment 572392

Kopitar is most likely going to be receiving a > $0 million extension to continue his career, otherwise why would Matthews go to a young non contender? Quick’s money will be partially spent on another goalie to replace him.

Factor in all the small little raises to current ELC’s and LA likely spending some money here and there next summer (like they’ve been spending money on Danault and Fiala the last two years) and there isn’t free $15 million sitting around.

 

[Stephen]

I think Nylander comes in closer to 10 than 8.

Nylander probably gets around the $9 million range depending on how productive his seasons are. There’s the push pull of both inflation and a stagnant cap so those factors will balance each other out.

 

[ACC1224]

Large Discount… plus, I think he stays employed by MLSE after he retires.

Hope you're right.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Based on cap friendly Murray, Muzzin and Brodie are UFAs same time Willy and Matthews are. That gives an additional 15.2M in cap space.

You sign Matthews to around 14 x 8 (3M raise) and Willy to about 9 x 8 (3M raise) leaves you with 9.6M in cap space + 2M increase in cap to approx 11.6M in cap space to sign 2Ds/extend Lily and Sandin (if possible).

Next season both Kefoot and Holl are off the cap that is an additional 3.5 +2 = 5.5M cap space. + 9.6M = 15M space can be created for 2024-2025 season (basically do a 1 yr deal next season to replace both Kerfoot and Holl).

Two years from now you can potentially ice this roster.

XXX-Matthews-Marner
XXX-Tavares-Nylander
XXX-XXX-XXX
XXX-XXX-XXX

Rielly-XXX
Sandin-Liljegren
XXX-XXX

XXX
XXX

15M in cap space to fill in the XXX (8F), 3D, 2G in total 13 players to sign in 15M. Now add in other fillers we have on the roster:

Engvall (2.3M) + Kampf (1.5M) + Simmonds (0.95M) + Clifford (0.9M) + Anderson (0.75M) + Gaudette (0.75M) + Kubel (1M) + Gio (0.8M) = total: approx 9M

Grand Total 15M + 9M = 24M to fill in 13 roster players. Note: Sandin and Lily will eat some of the cap here

Ideally we would have Robertson, Knies and Amirov on ELCs. But as luck would have it the unfortunate circumstance with Amirov (I hope he gets better soon not necessarily for Leafs but for his own quality of life).

Leafs gotta luck out with their drafting for top6D, at least one quality goalie, and one top9 forward.

Next season Tavares comes off the cap so that will bring in 11M in cap space of which some of it will go to Marner. I think Leafs should try to retool. They should give up the hope of cup run as long as Tavares is on the roster IMO. They should try to get picks/prospects and not throw them to get a run now. It would be nice if Leafs could "Tank" at least once before Tavares is off the cap.

I think starting now Leafs should look to flip Holl and Kerfoot for some picks and gather that draft capital.


View attachment 572385

That lineup looks like the same as 3 years ago. No one has managed to make it in there other than the 7 players you mentioned in 3 years.

 

[WillyC]

Seriously, keeping Matthews in Toronto is going to be quite easy… heck, we’ll rename streets if necessary:
Auston Matthews Boulevard
Auston Matthews Avenue
Auston Matthews Way

He’s already half written his Toronto Maple Leafs Legacy… no way, he stops what he’s doing here… plus, I think we win the cup soon.

Nylander, I can see him getting possibly traded.

 

[PromisedLand]

That lineup looks like the same as 3 years ago. No one has managed to make it in there other than the 7 players you mentioned in 3 years.

Agree but IMO there is no other way now. Leafs have gotta give up hope of any solid playoff runs. Just ride out Tavares' contract. And then once JT is off the cap and you have Matthews, Nylander and Marner locked up then you add to it -> Reasonably!!!

If it is up to me I will gather as much draft capital as possible until JT is off the cap. Start now so that by the time JT is off the cap you have some folks on ELCs coming in or you can trade these for the players you want on the roster.

Trading any picks/prospects now to go for it would be stupid IMO. Our goalie situation is a JOKE and it aint going to be good anytime soon IMO unless Murray or Samsanov all of a sudden pull a vezina level goal tending

Kopitar is most likely going to be receiving a > $0 million extension to continue his career, otherwise why would Matthews go to a young non contender? Quick’s money will be partially spent on another goalie to replace him.

Factor in all the small little raises to current ELC’s and LA likely spending some money here and there next summer (like they’ve been spending money on Danault and Fiala the last two years) and there isn’t free $15 million sitting around.

True but if teams want Matthews on their roster and they have quality ELCs taking up roster spots they will clear cap space.

Another scenario one can imagine is the Huberdeau/Tkachuk trade. What if Matthews would like to play somewhere else then what do you do? Matthews will likely walk off as UFA and he has full NMC.

heck Tavares did it to NYI too

 

[Stephen]

Agree but IMO there is no other way now. Leafs have gotta give up hope of any solid playoff runs. Just ride out Tavares' contract. And then once JT is off the cap and you have Matthews, Nylander and Marner locked up then you add to it -> Reasonably!!!

If it is up to me I will gather as much draft capital as possible until JT is off the cap. Start now so that by the time JT is off the cap you have some folks on ELCs coming in or you can trade these for the players you want on the roster.

Trading any picks/prospects now to go for it would be stupid IMO. Our goalie situation is a JOKE and it aint going to be good anytime soon IMO unless Murray or Samsanov all of a sudden pull a vezina level goal tending



True but if teams want Matthews on their roster and they have quality ELCs taking up roster spots they will clear cap space.

Another scenario one can imagine is the Huberdeau/Tkachuk trade. What if Matthews would like to play somewhere else then what do you do? Matthews will likely walk off as UFA and he has full NMC.

heck Tavares did it to NYI too

The best thing the Leafs can do is keep lines of communication open and treat Matthews like an equal partner. Get a sense of his intentions early and back up the Brinks truck. We can offer more money more easily than anyone else. More term. More flexibility in payment and bonus structure. We team comes as is without any big changes and he’s in progress rewriting the record book of the biggest market in the league and in the middle of a cup pursuit.

Maybe he wants to go Kevin Durant somewhere, who knows. But there’s no greener pasture in this league. We’re not Calgary.

 

[Menzinger]

Can't sign him before July 1, 2023......can't trade him after July 1, 2023 (without his permission).

May not have been the best advanced planning by Kid Kyle.

If he's not going to sign an extension, it's doubtful he's going to block a trade to stay with the team as long as he's at least passively fine in playing for that other team for a few months. Even if Matthews only is interested in playing for a few other teams, there's going to be an opportunity for a good trade for the Leafs.

 

[Menzinger]

They don't have to re-sign Tavares, and that is 3 years away.

At least he won't be a 35+, and he should be paid with no regard to his expiring contract.

Pay him what he's worth, if that is 5mm or 10mm, and I'm guessing the former.

They absolutely don't have to.

But I do suspect he'd be more than willing to stick around at a discount at that point. Ink him at the 5-6.9 mil mark over 3-4 years to play 2nd line winger for 55-70ish points at that stage would be fine with me

 

[Fogelhund]

Latest On Salary Cap Projections

It's been a foolish game to try and project future revenues over the last few years, with COVID-19 creating so …

www.prohockeyrumors.com

Now, as things have at least stabilized for the time being, it appears as though the league is still on track for an increase in 2025-26. NHLPA director Donald Fehr told Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnetthat it is a “reasonable bet” that the escrow debt will be paid off by the end of the 2024-25 season. If they do, it would almost certainly trigger a significant cap jump.

When Seravalli first projected out the cap numbers for the next few years, that jump was just under $6MM, to a total of $91.4MM. Remember though, that was for the 2026-27 season, meaning if the escrow is paid off a year earlier, it will come in a little under that number.

For now, the league is still limited to $1MM increases. Next season will have a cap ceiling of $82.5MM, 2023-24 is expected to be $83.5MM, and 2024-25 will have an $84.5MM. But as the entire world has learned since early 2020–don’t take projections as gospel.

I’ve read other reports that there is a small chance the escrow is paid off a year earlier, which could make the 2023-24 cap in the $88-89 mil range… We shall see how a recession affects this and what year the jump is.

 

[egd27]

If he's not going to sign an extension, it's doubtful he's going to block a trade to stay with the team as long as he's at least passively fine in playing for that other team for a few months. Even if Matthews only is interested in playing for a few other teams, there's going to be an opportunity for a good trade for the Leafs.

Perhaps, but once again Dubas gave the leverage to the player instead of the franchise.