Playoffs: Don't Tell Me The Odds

[kingsfan]

If Dallas goes 2-2 in the 4 games in hand they would be 1 point behind the Kings. As I’m sure you know, the RW is only relevant if they end up with the exact same number of points. A 1-point spread after evening up the number of games played is not exactly a lot of “wiggle room for error.”

Yes, I know RW is only relevant if they end up with the exact same number of points, that'd be why I called it a tiebreaker...

It's not a lot of wiggle room if we're talking exclusively about Dallas. I'll copy/paste the part about wiggle room from the post you're replying to, since you seem to want to ignore it and focus just on Dallas for some reason:

"And again, even if Dallas does pull ahead of LA, it means literally nothing unless LA is passed in the division by both Edmonton and Vegas to fall into a wildcard spot. LA could be passed by Edmonton, but for Vegas to leapfrog LA, they'd have to go 9-3 in their last 12 games if LA even goes 6-5 from here on out. LA has wiggle room for error here."

Dallas only matters if we get passed by both Edmonton and Vegas. IF that happens, then we'd also need to be passed by both Nashville and Dallas to fall out of the wildcard spots and miss the playoffs. If we go 6-5 in the next 11 games, which should be below expectations, then Edmonton would need to go 6-5-1, Vegas 8-3, Nashville 8-6 and Dallas 8-5-1 (since we should still hold the tiebreaker).

Again, that's assuming we only 6-5, and even then Dallas has to put up a pretty good stretch drive and Vegas has to play very good. If we go at our season average winning percentage we'd go 6-4-1, meaning Vegas would need to go 8-2-1 and Dallas 9-5 to pass us and both Edmonton and Nashville will also need to not stumble as well. All those games in hand only matter if you win them, and Dallas showed us that against the Kraken.

Thursday's game against Edmonton will likely go a long way to telling us if the wildcard is even a concern to us or not.

 

[Fishhead]

Everyone in the western race has been pretty consistent lately. Vancouver was dangerous there for a bit but as expected both they and 'Peg trailed off and aren't in the picture. It's solidly that 9 team race we expected a couple of weeks ago now.

As I mentioned in another post, things will start to get clearer by next week as some of those teams hit difficult spots in their schedules. The Kings do have a bit of wiggle room, but not much and only compared to the teams behind us who have little to none.

One advantage the Kings have: after this next stretch we play a lot of crappy teams down the stretch. Yes, traditionally that's actually a disadvantage, but the Kings have performed tremendously well against bad teams this year. Outside of SJ (who thankfully we are done with), the Kings have only lost one game in regulation against perceived bottom-feeder teams. That could absolutely change, but it's encouraging nonetheless.

 

[Mats26]

The only game that matters is the next one. We should treat them like playoff games.
Stay in the top 3, don't like our chances if we drop in those wildcard spots.

 

[kingsfan]

Thank you Vancouver.

 

[kingsfan]

A big loss for Dallas, much appreciated NJ.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

A big loss for Dallas, much appreciated NJ.

Forgot it was Saturday and we had some early games. phew

 

[KingsFan7824]

 

[Sybil227]

 

[Sol]

What’s the odds now ?

87% nvm

 

[bland]

And it was the same shot every single time. Snap shot taken right down the middle of the ice over the shoulder of the goaltender and under the crossbar. Which is why we all couldn't understand why he was always hitting the glass during games. The one memorable time he actually did hit the net he eliminated Vancouver.

Story around that time was that he had developed a bad arthritic condition in his wrists. He was a damn good shooter in the first half of his career.

 

[KingsFan7824]

 

[MBH]

Dallas losing to Jersey is one of those "you don't deserve to make the playoffs" losses.
Stars seem like a team that can't figure out if they're coming or going.
I thought the singing of Pavelski and Perry reeked of last ditch desperation efforts that would do them in.
Somehow, this team is a factor despite almost so many overpaid, underperforming players.
Pavelski is a warrior and Jason Robertson saved this team.

 

[kilowatt]

Edmonton beating Colorado, Vegas shelling Arizona... it ain't getting any easier folks

 

[shuchukfan]

Dallas losing to Jersey is one of those "you don't deserve to make the playoffs" losses.

Like the Kings losing to Seattle.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Like the Kings losing to Seattle.

And losing to Chicago... and Arizona.

 

[kilowatt]

According to FiveThirtyEight, LA’s chances of making the playoffs are down to 58%, while Vegas is up to 55%. Edmonton is at 98%, Nashville 95%, and Dallas 85%.

Heh.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Oilers fan coming in peace(as much as one can)


Trying to figure out the kings.

Two weeks ago on the oiler board, I had the kings safely in 2nd spot with both Dallas and Vegas getting hot and pushing the oilers out of the playoffs.

Vegas has the easiest schedule the rest of the way and I have them getting their shit together.

My latest take on the last 3 weeks of the season has the oilers and kings battling for 3rd in the division with the loser on the golf course. With dallas and nashville taking the wild card spots

Unless Vegas netminders shit their bed..I see them going on a streak

 

[Herby]

According to FiveThirtyEight, LA’s chances of making the playoffs are down to 58%, while Vegas is up to 55%. Edmonton is at 98%, Nashville 95%, and Dallas 85%.

Heh.

This seems about right, it’s the Kings and Knights in a coin flip. After the Kings won in Winnipeg the Kings really only needed to get 2-3 points out of the 8 vs the good teams they played to put them themselves in a really good spot with the soft schedule. Now it looks like they will end up with 0 points in those 4 games.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

If the Kings win the games they are 'supposed' to win, we still end up with 98 points. I mean, were they really supposed to beat Calgary or the Wild? If we can't find a way to collect the points against the teams below us at this time of the season, we don't deserve to be there...time will tell.

 

[KingsCourt]

I think we're done...typically optimistic, but just seems like the injuries finally catching up

 

[Herby]

If the Kings win the games they are 'supposed' to win, we still end up with 98 points. I mean, were they really supposed to beat Calgary or the Wild? If we can't find a way to collect the points against the teams below us at this time of the season, we don't deserve to be there...time will tell.

At least 1 win vs Calgary, Edmonton, Minnesota and Colorado should have been expected and also would have given them a cushion should they slip up vs one of the bad teams.

Now they are probably going to have to run the table vs those teams.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Why do people bother doing anything other than Points when it comes to Magic Numbers?

The Magic Number for LA and Vegas is 26.

x + y = 26

x = points Kings win
y= points Vegas fails to win

The Vegas schedule is the problem

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Oilers fan coming in peace(as much as one can)


Trying to figure out the kings.

Two weeks ago on the oiler board, I had the kings safely in 2nd spot with both Dallas and Vegas getting hot and pushing the oilers out of the playoffs.

Vegas has the easiest schedule the rest of the way and I have them getting their shit together.

My latest take on the last 3 weeks of the season has the oilers and kings battling for 3rd in the division with the loser on the golf course. With dallas and nashville taking the wild card spots

Unless Vegas netminders shit their bed..I see them going on a streak

Some advice for your sanity: don't

 

[Jumptheshark]

Some advice for your sanity: don't

I am oiler fan... this word sanity? What does it mean? And to add to the craziness. While born in Edmonton, I have not lived there for 30 years..been in United Kingdom for the last 21 years and I am still an oiler fan


Sanity...lost touch with that long ago

 

[cyclones22]

Been saying for months that the Kings inability to beat teams in their own conference was an issue that would come back to haunt them. There was a lot of statistical gymnastics thrown my way to show that a turnaround was imminent. 16-20-7 with a -24 differential as of today.

Over the last few weeks, the pregame show was really annoying me with their amount of talking like the Playoffs was close to a lock and how the Kings were going to hit 100 points. And before someone comes in and says a few weeks ago it looked like it, were these folks not keenly aware of this franchise's history of collapse?