Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | With Klingberg in the Mix Who Are Our 7D After the Deadline?

[McJadeddog]

This is actually why I don't like saying that goalies are voodoo. There are no guarantees with any player. The problem with our organization is that they think that goalies are voodoo. It's the same thing as saying that their success is random. Imo, talent matters and you can see it

I'd say goalies are fairly reliable in terms of guessing who will succeed. The formula is simple. Look for good base stats on teams with poor defense. Also look for goalies with good stats compared other goalies on the same team. That was Ullmark. Blackwood. Roloson. I can't recall exactly of a goalie like these that didn't pan out when the defense only got better.

I'm not sure who to pick, as the teams with obvious choices have made runs and might make the playoffs.

I used to be all about Detroit and Utah goalies. I still am. I like Gibson, but I'd prefer a goalie with short term. There's also Lankinen, Nedeljkovic

I like our pro scouting. They can look into to it. The main thing is that they get someone. I don't see status quo as a good idea

I don't think most goalies are "reliable", but maybe there are statistics that are more predictive than I am aware. If so, then that is great, and I hope our scouts are scouring the league for goalies that fit within that statistical context.

 

[Lay Z Boy GM]

Doesn’t Gibson only have like 2 years on his deal? With the cap going up there’s not a ton of risk. I just don’t wanna pay an iffy goalie for 5 years like we did Campbell, that’s when you get burned.

Gibson with a good defense in front of him would be interesting

 

[McDNicks17]

This is actually why I don't like saying that goalies are voodoo. There are no guarantees with any player. The problem with our organization is that they think that goalies are voodoo. It's the same thing as saying that their success is random. Imo, talent matters and you can see it

I'd say goalies are fairly reliable in terms of guessing who will succeed. The formula is simple. Look for good base stats on teams with poor defense. Also look for goalies with good stats compared other goalies on the same team. That was Ullmark. Blackwood. Roloson. I can't recall exactly of a goalie like these that didn't pan out when the defense only got better.

I'm not sure who to pick, as the teams with obvious choices have made runs and might make the playoffs.

I used to be all about Detroit and Utah goalies. I still am. I like Gibson, but I'd prefer a goalie with short term. There's also Lankinen, Nedeljkovic

I like our pro scouting. They can look into to it. The main thing is that they get someone. I don't see status quo as a good idea

I would say take it one step further and look for goalies with consistent results against high danger chances.

Those are the chances that really rely on individual skill/talent. They don't get juiced by a defensive system in front of them.

Ullmark, Sorokin, Hellebuyck, Vasilevskiy, Markstrom, Shesterkin, Saros, Thompson. That's the top 8 starters in high danger chances saved above expected over the past three seasons. Seems like a decent list.

 

[Oilhawks]

I would say take it one step further and look for goalies with consistent results against high danger chances.

Those are the chances that really rely on individual skill/talent. They don't get juiced by a defensive system in front of them.

Ullmark, Sorokin, Hellebuyck, Vasilevskiy, Markstrom, Shesterkin, Saros, Thompson. That's the top 8 starters in high danger chances saved above expected over the past three seasons. Seems like a decent list.

Saros, come on down!

 

[Mr Positive]

Doesn’t Gibson only have like 2 years on his deal? With the cap going up there’s not a ton of risk. I just don’t wanna pay an iffy goalie for 5 years like we did Campbell, that’s when you get burned.

Gibson with a good defense in front of him would be interesting

A sticking point there is that we'd need retention, and 2.5 years of significant retention is expensive. If that deal is made, it would be because Anaheim wants to do right by Gibson and give him this trade as a gift. Anaheim would have to bend a bit on the value to make it happen.

Also, the ideal is a goalie with 1 year after this. Or at least no more than that. There is the possibility that we want to keep Skinner after next season and that he'll be expensive, and that's also when McDavid's deal expires.

So Gibson's term gives quite a lot of risk in that we don't know how good he is here until we see him here.

 

[Mr Positive]

Saros, come on down!

I know it seems crazy, but imo that's too much commitment for a goalie that we haven't seen have success on our team. He is a good bet, but I'd rather we not gamble our future on it.

Right now, try for the Logan Thompson model. Bring in a guy who you scout and select as potential to ascend who will be grateful for the chance, try him out, and then re-sign at a reasonable number. That interview period is really important

 

[Louis Cypher]

Trade wise, most the moves look pretty good. Pod deal was a win. Emberson deal was a win. McLeod deal, it was more a cap dump move, too early to tell.

Broberg and Holloway were both huge losses, but that's more on the organization for their role in their development over the last few years. These 2 were more of an organizational loss, plenty of blame to go around for their departures.

UFA wise - it has not been good, how many signings that were made would you say have been good value wise so far?

Perry - yes.
C. Brown - maybe, it's at least average.
Henrique - no.
Janmark - no.
J Skinner - no.
Arvidsson - no.
J. Brown - no.
Dermott - no.

How anyone could argue that the Oilers had a good summer, UFA signing wise, is beyond me.


100% agreed. Oilers management needs to step up, and do what it takes to win a Cup.

Can't blame past management for failing to sign our 2 top prospects when the current management had the money but blew it on UFAs.

 

[Ritchie Valens]

Gotta love this

Well, if anything Pietrangelo might have an actual reason to miss the 4-Nations now.

 

[McAsuno]

If wings fall out of a WC spot, Lyon could be a decent option too.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

Can you imagine a goalie (74) who has an atrocious high danger save %, playing for a team that gives up a lot of high danger changes?

27 teams in the NHL give up more high danger chances against than the Oilers.

Skinner sewers the Oilers chance of winning games every night. He would be demoted to the AHL after two weeks of starts on any of those clubs.

You are forgetting one key thing.

Edmonton is a unicorn and their high danger chances against are much worse than every other team.

Blackwood with B2B shutouts. Too bad that guy wasn’t available just a couple months ago…

He was a lateral move, remember. COL doesn't give up the unique high dangers we do.

 

[foshizzle]

You are forgetting one key thing.

Edmonton is a unicorn and their high danger chances against are much worse than every other team.


He was a lateral move, remember. COL doesn't give up the unique high dangers we do.

What are you talking about- Edmonton is a top 3 team in the league in preventing high danger chances against

 

[CanadasTeam99]

What are you talking about- Edmonton is a top 3 team in the league in preventing high danger chances against

I was being sarcastic at people calling that nice lateral. Like he wouldn't have helped us.

Just crying over spilled milk now, but I really wanted Blackwood.

Levels better than what we have.

No guarantees in life, but he was prime for the taking.

 

[SwedishFire]

Why are you and so many others so dumb to expect peak Klingberg after two games?

Nurse and Klingberg ppair would be the best that happens to hockey since lockout rulechanges. More goals forward, and definitly more goals back. More goals!

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

We're the only clear playoff team he'd be a starter on (out of 16 teams).

The only teams Skinner might start on are Philly, Pittsburgh, maaaaaybe Buffalo (even this I doubt I think UPL is better than him), maaaaaaaybe Columbus. And here.

And even that is subject to a lot of question marks, his confidence would likely shatter quick playing for the above mentioned losing record teams and that would likely have a culminative negative effect on his numbers and confidence. He is insulated here a lot and has a ton of run support with McDavid/Drai tilting the ice and elite defensive systems coaching from Coff/Knob that limit high danger chances.

First off there isn't 16 clear playoff teams, I'll say there is roughly 11 that have a decent edge.

Of those 11 teams their starting goalies GSAA/60 in all situations is the following:

1. Connor Hellebuyck= 0.65
2. Logan Thompson= 0.62
3. Darcy Kuemper= 0.48
4. MacKenzie Blackwood= 0.43
5. Filip Gustavsson= 0.34
6. Jake Oettinger= 0.26
7. Jacob Markstrom= 0.25
8. Joseph Woll= 0.22* (some see Anthony Stolarz as the starter 0.75 GSAA/60, but he's only played 17 games due to injury)
9. Stuart Skinner= 0.03
10. Pyotr Kochetkov= 0.03
11. Sergei Bobrovsky= 0.02
12. Adin Hill= -0.05

So Skinner is tied with CAR's starting goalie and is statistically beating FLA's and VGK's starting goalie.

 

[Oilers88]

Gotta love this

 

[Soundwave]

First off there isn't 16 clear playoff teams, I'll say there is roughly 11 that have a decent edge.

Of those 11 teams their starting goalies GSAA/60 in all situations is the following:

1. Connor Hellebuyck= 0.65
2. Logan Thompson= 0.62
3. Darcy Kuemper= 0.48
4. MacKenzie Blackwood= 0.43
5. Filip Gustavsson= 0.34
6. Jake Oettinger= 0.26
7. Jacob Markstrom= 0.25
8. Joseph Woll= 0.22* (some see Anthony Stolarz as the starter 0.75 GSAA/60, but he's only played 17 games due to injury)
9. Stuart Skinner= 0.03
10. Pyotr Kochetkov= 0.03
11. Sergei Bobrovsky= 0.02
12. Adin Hill= -0.05

So Skinner is tied with CAR's starting goalie and is statistically beating FLA's and VGK's starting goalie.

Who actually thinks if the Oilers had Adin Hill or Sergei Bobrovsky, that Stuart Skinner would be the starter here?

LOL, nobody, not even Skinner's mom.

Adin Hill is having a wishy washy regular season but was .931 in the playoffs last year (after .932 the year prior), Skinner was .901, who would you play? How scary would this team be with .930 goaltending in the playoffs? The year before Hill destroyed Skinner head to head in the playoffs.

Bobrovsky was .915 to Skinner's .905 last year and then was Florida's best player in the Finals against us even though we did manage to dent his numbers with a coupe of lop sided wins, in their 4 wins he was outstanding.

 

[Soundwave]

I think people are severely underestimating how much salaries could go up. We have already seen Blackwood on the basis of a few good games get $5.25M and if you look at Skinner's resume on paper it is at east comparable right now. Blackwood is older and struggled to establish himself as a starter even on some very weak teams. He has not even played a single NHL playoff game. And Skinner's deal will be with a cap of $105M in year one and $113M in year two. Basically we are looking at 20-30% higher numbers than today. And my guess is that with recent contracts as a basis goalies will command an additional premium over this since they have tended to be on the lower end of the salary scale. Even a low end starter will be asking for $5M+ which will be the amount teams will be paying average #4 defensemen. I also get the sense that Skinner has a lot of confidence in his own worth so while he may well not get $6M I don't see him signing with the Oilers early for much less if he remains their starter. And that is the point. Barring giving him more than I think he is worth they will have to find someone else. If they don't do anything this year then I think it is imperative that next year the main goal should be upgrading in goal for at least the next several years.

Look, I share your concern but there are probably 5-8 goalies in the whole league who are consistent enough that you can pretty much count on them to be a significant step up. Of those guys, maybe Saros is available if you throw the kitchen sink at Nashville. Otherwise you are throwing spaghetti at the wall if you are not careful. Make a mistake and you could easily be in a worse position. Right now I think the chances of that mistake are higher than they will be in a month and the options are probably also fewer.

Gibson for example is a big risk because of his contract and the cost to get him. I am not full against trying but I am no expert on goalies so I am less sure that he can be completely rehabilitated. That said I also get the sense that Anaheim is in any hurry to deal him and may not until Dostal signs. Having Gibson gives them significant leverage in negotiations with him.

At some point the excuses lose their validity with multiple other teams just get on with it and upgrade their goaltending.

Colorado acquired Blackwood and he has been a .925 goalie there after being .911 in San Jose this year and upgrade from Gerogeiv who was like .890 in Colorado.

San Jose went out an already got Celebrini a goalie in Askarov that could be a franchise goalie in the long run.

Vancouver picked up Lankinen for peanuts and he has better numbers there on a shittier team than Skinner does this season.

Both of Toronto's bargain basement pick ups (Stolarz and Woll) have significantly better goalie stats than Skinner.

Even in LA, Darcy Kuemper has been pretty good this year.

Ottawa obviously went out and got Ullmark and have moved into a playoff spot as a result.

It isn't that hard to get a goalie and/or make improvements in net, the Oilers are the one that make it out to be some impossible task.

 

[brentashton]

If wings fall out of a WC spot, Lyon could be a decent option too.

He’s been tagged as their foundational goalie. You’d have to pay dearly to pry him out of DRW. Unlikely to happen.

 

[Soundwave]

He’s been tagged as their foundational goalie. You’d have to pay dearly to pry him out of DRW. Unlikely to happen.

I would take Cam Talbot back in a heart beat.

Even Connor Ingram who's numbers have been tanked this year due to an injury issue earlier in the year and starting to turn, another .929 night for him last night.

If the Oilers want a buy low candidate who has a shot at rebounding that could be one. He was .907 the previous two years in Arizona, but you have to figure that's on a bottom tier team, that .907 could conservatively been .910+ on a good team. Positive Goals Saved Above Expected stats for both seasons also.

We need a third goalie no matter what, if there was an injury to either one of Skinner or Pickard we'd be low key kind of f***ed, Rodrigue has 0 NHL experience, Delia is a mediocre of an option as it gets. You can't be throwing either one of those guys into say an NHL playoff game.

 

[Fourier]

At some point the excuses lose their validity with multiple other teams just get on with it and upgrade their goaltending.

Colorado acquired Blackwood and he has been a .925 goalie there after being .911 in San Jose this year and upgrade from Gerogeiv who was like .890 in Colorado.

San Jose went out an already got Celebrini a goalie in Askarov that could be a franchise goalie in the long run.

Vancouver picked up Lankinen for peanuts and he has better numbers there on a shittier team than Skinner does this season.

Both of Toronto's bargain basement pick ups (Stolarz and Woll) have significantly better goalie stats than Skinner.

Even in LA, Darcy Kuemper has been pretty good this year.

It isn't that hard to get a goalie and/or make improvements in net, the Oilers are the one that make it out to be some impossible task.

I think you are making my case for me. Its pretty easy to list trades for goalies that turned out well in the short term. It is just as easy to list more moves that turned out badly right away or even after some short term success. Moreover even the short term successes often end up being pumpkins. That was precisely my point. Doing something for that sake alone could put you in a worse position.

Which version of Blackwood are the Avs getting for $5.25M next year? The guy who put up over .940 6 times in his first 10 games or the guy who just had 5 straight sub .900 games in a row before getting a shutout? Or maybe you just don't know! What kills the Oilers is not Skinners sv% it is his inconsistency. If he played .900-.905 hockey game in and game out the Oilers would win the Cup. And by the way how is it that Colorado was in a position to trade for Blackwood. Was it because they thought they had their guy in Georgiev until he too turned into a pumpkin. They didn't pay a lot to get him a 3rd and a 5th but they thought they had their guy when he put up a .918 sv% in his first year. Then he went back to being the goalie he always was.

I actually agree that it is easy to trade for a goalie. Where I disagree is that it is easy to make an improvement if what you are trying to improve is the consistency and reliability of your goaltending. At one point people on here were talking about Jonathan Quick as a target after he started the season with 5 straight .900 or better games and two shutouts. How's he doing of late. Let's look at Lankinen's last 10 games

.773
.929
.876
.941
.792
.889
1.000
.818
.970
.923

That is exactly what you are trying to avoid. You were also waxing on how brilliant Vegas was in identifying Hill. He has now gone back to being what he was short of about a half a season.

I am not trying to make excuses for anyone. My opinion is that the Oilers need to upgrade. I just don't agree with your notion that any move is better than none.

 

[brentashton]

I would take Cam Talbot back in a heart beat.

Even Connor Ingram who's numbers have been tanked this year due to an injury issue earlier in the year and starting to turn, another .929 night for him last night.

If the Oilers want a buy low candidate who has a shot at rebounding that could be one. He was .907 the previous two years in Arizona, but you have to figure that's on a bottom tier team, that .907 could conservatively been .910+ on a good team. Positive Goals Saved Above Expected stats for both seasons also.

We need a third goalie no matter what, if there was an injury to either one of Skinner or Pickard we'd be low key kind of f***ed, Rodrigue has 0 NHL experience, Delia is a mediocre of an option as it gets. You can't be throwing either one of those guys into say an NHL playoff game.

I like Talbot to Edmonton as well. Possible.

 

[McDNicks17]

I was being sarcastic at people calling that nice lateral. Like he wouldn't have helped us.

Just crying over spilled milk now, but I really wanted Blackwood.

Levels better than what we have.

No guarantees in life, but he was prime for the taking.

Looks like he's putting up some Skinner-esque results.

Five straight games of .850 SV% against decent teams. Shutouts against two of the worst teams in the league.