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Playoffs: Don't Tell Me The Odds

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Fishhead said:
Big night tonight. In addition to winning we want:

Important:
Nashville over Vegas
SJ over Edmonton
Minnesota over Vancouver

Less important:
Carolina over Dallas

Pfft:
Ottawa over Winnipeg
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Not a great night, but as long as the Kings can keep getting points it's fine.

The Kings have been amazing at getting loser points in comparison to the teams they are in the race with. Only downside is they lose RW tiebreaker but that probably won't matter because the points are going to likely get them in.

.500 the rest of the way (probably pessimistic, even with the injuries) gets to 95.

Vegas would have to play 70% hockey to reach 95 points, only 3 teams in the league have been that good this year
 
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Herby said:
Not a great night, but as long as the Kings can keep getting points it's fine.

The Kings have been amazing at getting loser points in comparison to the teams they are in the race with. Only downside is they lose RW tiebreaker but that probably won't matter because the points are going to likely get them in.

.500 the rest of the way (probably pessimistic, even with the injuries) gets to 95.

Vegas would have to play 70% hockey to reach 95 points, only 3 teams in the league have been that good this year
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Absolutely. It went about as bad as it could, but because we got a point our playoff odds only drop to 87% or so. 18 points in 16 games will do it.

Vegas, LA and Dallas have very easy schedules the rest of the way. Edmonton has it really rough though. They play COL (2), PIT, CAL, MIN, STL, NSH, plus they play VGK and VAN in this last stretch. We play them two more times.
 
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Fishhead said:
Absolutely. It went about as bad as it could, but because we got a point our playoff odds only drop to 87% or so. 18 points in 16 games will do it.

Vegas, LA and Dallas have very easy schedules the rest of the way. Edmonton has it really rough though. They play COL (2), PIT, CAL, MIN, STL, NSH, plus they play VGK and VAN in this last stretch. We play them two more times.
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I think we will be playing edmonton at least 6 more times.
 
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"I give us 1 chance in 3"

captain-marko-ramius-calmly-asks-about-the-books-jack-ryan-has-written.jpg
 
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BringTheReign said:
Dang, we were at 14 points the other day and now it’s 18. Damn math doing math things.
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The 14 was 14 wins, not points and that was to gaurantee a spot. By that metric we're now at 13 wins to guarantee a spot (meaning we get in over Vegas even if they win all 15 of their remaining games). The 18 points (9 wins) is a more realistic estimate of what will likely be enough to get in.
 
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redcard said:
The 14 was 14 wins, not points and that was to gaurantee a spot. By that metric we're now at 13 wins to guarantee a spot (meaning we get in over Vegas even if they win all 15 of their remaining games). The 18 points (9 wins) is a more realistic estimate of what will likely be enough to get in.
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Got it, thanks for the explanation!
 
Why do people bother doing anything other than Points when it comes to Magic Numbers?

The Magic Number for LA and Vegas is 26.

x + y = 26

x = points Kings win
y= points Vegas fails to win
 
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All The Kings Men said:
Why do people bother doing anything other than Points when it comes to Magic Numbers?

The Magic Number for LA and Vegas is 26.

x + y = 26

x = points Kings win
y= points Vegas fails to win
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At this point, it's probably easier to do that because it's getting pretty obvious that both WC teams are going to be from the Central.

I started using wins early because teams were bouncing in and out of that 9th spot so it's easier just to say if the Kings win this many games, they are in. Right now, it's 13 wins (or 26 points like above). It also makes it easier to deal with the effects of games in hand. For example, if the 10th place team is 2 points behind the 9th place team with equal ROW's and two games in hand, one can't simply subtract points that 9th misses out on because they may or may not really be in 9th. If that makes sense at all. It just simplifies things in those cases.

As things become clearer I will switch to points :)
 
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All The Kings Men said:
Why do people bother doing anything other than Points when it comes to Magic Numbers?

The Magic Number for LA and Vegas is 26.

x + y = 26

x = points Kings win
y= points Vegas fails to win
Click to expand...
Quit confusing us with algebra Jesse! Lol. I feel pretty good about where we are. The bottom line is the Kings control their own destiny.
 
A lot of teams still control their own destiny, Vancouver could go 12-3-1 and could sneak in, obviously the Kings have quite a bit more wiggle room.

The Kings just need to take care of the bad teams. 14 points left vs bottom feeders Seattle, Anaheim and Chicago. Another 6 against decent rosters but teams with basically nothing to play for (Columbus, Vancouver, Winnipeg). 14 of a possible 20 vs these teams puts you at 93 points and to get to 96 you just need 3 out of a possible 12 in the games left vs playoff teams.

The Vegas game today was stupid, but in March Madness terms Vegas just made a 3 to cut the Kings lead to 4 with 30 seconds left. Only way Kings lose is if they miss free throws.
 
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Herby said:
A lot of teams still control their own destiny, Vancouver could go 12-3-1 and could sneak in, obviously the Kings have quite a bit more wiggle room.

The Kings just need to take care of the bad teams. 14 points left vs bottom feeders Seattle, Anaheim and Chicago. Another 6 against decent rosters but teams with basically nothing to play for (Columbus, Vancouver, Winnipeg). 14 of a possible 20 vs these teams puts you at 93 points and to get to 96 you just need 3 out of a possible 12 in the games left vs playoff teams.

The Vegas game today was stupid, but in March Madness terms Vegas just made a 3 to cut the Kings lead to 4 with 30 seconds left. Only way Kings lose is if they miss free throws.
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Shitty win by Vegas, but take solace in the fact that they still do not control their destiny numerically. Surprisingly, every team other than the top 7 and the Stars could win every game and still not make it. Thank the possibility of 3 point games for that. Of course, if Vancouver did go 12-3-1 there is a decent chance they make it in as everyone else isn't going to be perfect.

I know we all panic, but really the Kings were in a fantastic spot before tonight's win, and are in an even better spot now. It's really hard to catch up down the stretch as Vegas and Vancouver will both find out.
 
Kings odds as of 3/27/2022:

MoneyPuck - 90.8% Most likely finish - 2nd place (49.2%)

FiveThirtyEight - 87%

PlayoffStatus - 90% Most likely finish - 2nd place (54%)

SportsClubStats - 91%

Average: 89.7%

Magic number*: 12 wins (24 points - count losses from VGK/WPG)

*Note the magic number will fluctuate depending on who is in the 3rd wild card, if they lose, 3 point games, and so on. If the Kings win this many of their remaining games they make the playoffs regardless of what other teams do.

Important games tonight

Who we want to win is in Bold. Games where the effect is minuscule are ignored. Cheer for regulation!

PHI @ NSH
ARI @ WPG
 
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Fishhead said:
Kings odds as of 3/27/2022:

MoneyPuck - 90.8% Most likely finish - 2nd place (49.2%)

FiveThirtyEight - 87%

PlayoffStatus - 90% Most likely finish - 2nd place (54%)

SportsClubStats - 91%

Average: 89.7%

Magic number*: 12 wins (24 points - count losses from VGK/WPG)

*Note the magic number will fluctuate depending on who is in the 3rd wild card, if they lose, 3 point games, and so on. If the Kings win this many of their remaining games they make the playoffs regardless of what other teams do.

Important games tonight

Who we want to win is in Bold. Games where the effect is minuscule are ignored. Cheer for regulation!

PHI @ NSH
ARI @ WPG
Click to expand...

Yay! We’re back! And it matters this year!
 
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