Playoffs: Don't Tell Me The Odds
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All The Kings Men
Registered User
- Apr 7, 2016
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kilowatt
the vibes are not immaculate
- Jan 1, 2009
- 18,726
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SufferingSelfCreated
Registered User
- Apr 5, 2020
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Kings are only a +1 for GF/GA for the season. Not many playoff teams can say that.....hint hint.
The Lukeman
Opinionated
- Apr 7, 2019
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BringTheReign
Registered User
We’ve been top 10 in every 5v5 stat, but our finishing is awful. I’d be more worried about it if those stats didn’t match the eye test. None of us were bullish on this being a playoff team at the start of the year, and we’ve been nailed with injuries. I think our differential will climb up as our younger talent matures into larger roles.
We also need Cal to be much better. Quick has been great given his age and mileage.
kingsfan
President of the Todd McLellan fan club by default
And both are in the playoffs, so even if they both pass us, another team after that would also need to pass us.We're only four points up on Vegas with the same number of games played. Edmonton is currently one point behind with one game in hand.
It wouldn't be idal for anyone to pass us, but all I'm saying is we still have some runway to give before we're in dire straits for a playoff berth and, given the step forward that would from last year and the injuries we've had this season, especially lately, I'm still happy with just making the playoffs.
kilowatt
the vibes are not immaculate
- Jan 1, 2009
- 18,726
- 21,837
Not really, Dallas has four games in hand on us. They're higher in points percentage than Vegas. It's likely that whoever ends up fourth in the Pacific ends up out of the playoffs.
kingsfan
President of the Todd McLellan fan club by default
Games in hand are only meaningful if you win them. I get what you're saying, but no matter winning percentages, etc., at least three teams and possibly four will have to pass us for us to miss the playoffs. We have wiggle room if we lose a game or two more than others.
Not to mention their schedule is really compressed with only 1 break with 2 days rest and 4 more B to B's.
kilowatt
the vibes are not immaculate
- Jan 1, 2009
- 18,726
- 21,837
I agree — still, just a reminder. LA and Vegas both have 12 games remaining. If the magic number is still 97, that means:
6-5-1 for LA
8-3-1 for Vegas
7-6-0 for Edmonton
7-6-1 for Nashville
9-7-0 for Dallas
10-2-1 for Winnipeg
12-1-0 for Vancouver
LA and Edmonton likely round out the 2 and 3 seeds for the Pacific and Nashville and Dallas likely take the 7th and 8th seeds.
Interestingly, the Blues have faltered pretty significantly lately. They only need to go 6-8-1 in their last 15 games to reach 97 points, but there’s a real chance Nashville passes them (Blues are only two points ahead with one game in hand).
Chazz Reinhold
Registered User
On the flip side, the likelihood that Dallas loses all four of the games in hand is incredibly low. The Kings don't have much breathing room.
Sportsclubstats has been crazy slow updating lately, but I'll post an update tomorrow regardless. Getting down to the nitty-gritty here.
kingsfan
President of the Todd McLellan fan club by default
They wouldn't have to loss all four games. Currently -with the Dallas/SJ game still in progress but the Kings win over the Jets already in the books- LA is seven points ahead with Dallas having five games in hand. Since LA has 29 regulation wins compared to Dallas' 24, LA has that tiebreaker as well, so Dallas would have to go 4-1 in those five games in hand to pull ahead of LA. If they lose two of the five, even if one of those losses is in overtime/shootout- LA stays ahead of them.
And again, even if Dallas does pull ahead of LA, it means literally nothing unless LA is passed in the division by both Edmonton and Vegas to fall into a wildcard spot. LA could be passed by Edmonton, but for Vegas to leapfrog LA, they'd have to go 9-3 in their last 12 games if LA even goes 6-5 from here on out. LA has wiggle room for error here.
Chazz Reinhold
Registered User
If Dallas goes 2-2 in the 4 games in hand they would be 1 point behind the Kings. As I’m sure you know, the RW is only relevant if they end up with the exact same number of points. A 1-point spread after evening up the number of games played is not exactly a lot of “wiggle room for error.”
Kings odds as of 4/3/2022 (AM):
MoneyPuck - 93.1% Most likely finish - 2nd place (46.6%)
FiveThirtyEight - 88%
PlayoffStatus - 90% Most likely finish - 2nd place (47%)
SportsClubStats - 90.4%
Average: 90.38%
Magic number*: 10 wins (19 points)
Right now, it looks like 98 points will do it, but it's moving towards 99.
*Note the magic number will fluctuate depending on who is in the 3rd wild card, if they lose, 3 point games, and so on. If the Kings win this many of their remaining games they make the playoffs regardless of what other teams do.
MoneyPuck - 93.1% Most likely finish - 2nd place (46.6%)
FiveThirtyEight - 88%
PlayoffStatus - 90% Most likely finish - 2nd place (47%)
SportsClubStats - 90.4%
Average: 90.38%
Magic number*: 10 wins (19 points)
Right now, it looks like 98 points will do it, but it's moving towards 99.
*Note the magic number will fluctuate depending on who is in the 3rd wild card, if they lose, 3 point games, and so on. If the Kings win this many of their remaining games they make the playoffs regardless of what other teams do.
Sybil227
Registered User
kilowatt
the vibes are not immaculate
- Jan 1, 2009
- 18,726
- 21,837
Jeez. In 2018-19, Colorado made it into the playoffs with 90 points as the 8th seed. 99 points was good for fourth-best in the conference.
Points by lowest seed per conference since 2014, excluding shortened seasons:
2019
E: Columbus, 98
W: Colorado, 90
2018
E: Columbus, 97 & New Jersey, 97
W: Colorado, 95
2017:
E: Toronto, 95
W: Calgary, 94 & Nashville, 94
2016
E: Philadelphia, 96
W: Minnesota: 87
2015
E: Pittsburgh, 98
W: Winnipeg, 99
...Kings missed the playoffs in 2015 by four points, with 95. We went 2-8 in the shootout and scored only 5 goals combined, 3 from Kopitar and 2 from Gaborik. Carter, Toffoli, Pearson, Brown, and Lecavalier all missed all of their shots (a combined 0/12).
2014
E: Columbus, 93 & Detroit, 93
W: Dallas, 91
Shocked at 2016, Minnesota made the playoffs as the 8th seed with 87 points!
Nasti
Registered User
kilowatt
the vibes are not immaculate
- Jan 1, 2009
- 18,726
- 21,837
My bad — yes, I got my shootout stats for the two years mixed up. The Kings went 2-8 in 10 shootout games in 2014-15, and 2-3 in 5 shootout games in 2015-16.
In 2014-15, The Kings scored 5 shootout goals on 35 shots.
Carter: 2/9
Kopitar: 1/10
Gaborik: 2/6
Toffoli: 0/4
Williams: 0/1
Stoll: 0/1
Brown: 0/1
Richards: 0/1
Lewis: 0/1
King: 0/1
Doughty: 0/1
NHL Stats
The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.
www.nhl.com
KingsHockey24
Registered User
- Aug 1, 2013
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Wasn't there a season Jarret Stoll was our best shootout guy?My bad — yes, I got my shootout stats for the two years mixed up. The Kings went 2-8 in 10 shootout games in 2014-15, and 2-3 in 5 shootout games in 2015-16.
In 2014-15, The Kings scored 5 shootout goals on 35 shots.
Carter: 2/9
Kopitar: 1/10
Gaborik: 2/6
Toffoli: 0/4
Williams: 0/1
Stoll: 0/1
Brown: 0/1
Richards: 0/1
Lewis: 0/1
King: 0/1
Doughty: 0/1
NHL Stats
The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.
King'sPawn
Enjoy the chaos
- Jul 1, 2003
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Nasti
Registered User
cyclones22
Registered User
And it was the same shot every single time. Snap shot taken right down the middle of the ice over the shoulder of the goaltender and under the crossbar. Which is why we all couldn't understand why he was always hitting the glass during games. The one memorable time he actually did hit the net he eliminated Vancouver.
