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Playoffs: Don't Tell Me The Odds

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cyclones22 said:
Been saying for months that the Kings inability to beat teams in their own conference was an issue that would come back to haunt them. There was a lot of statistical gymnastics thrown my way to show that a turnaround was imminent. 16-20-7 with a -24 differential as of today.

Over the last few weeks, the pregame show was really annoying me with their amount of talking like the Playoffs was close to a lock and how the Kings were going to hit 100 points. And before someone comes in and says a few weeks ago it looked like it, were these folks not keenly aware of this franchise's history of collapse?
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Yep, I was there for that too. "Who cares who they're beating?" I sure do. An inability to beat your most-scouted opponents, most of whom are much worse than the other teams, while winning a bunch of one-off off-conference games is indiciative of shit preparation/coaching.
 
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Kings odds as of 4/11/2022:

MoneyPuck - 77.8% Most likely finish - 3rd place (61.3%)

FiveThirtyEight - 58%

PlayoffStatus - 65% Most likely finish - 3rd place (45%)

SportsClubStats - Not updated

Average: 61.43%

Magic number*: We no longer control our own destiny

Right now, it looks like 99 points will do it. Need to go 6-1-1 unless other teams start losing.

 
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Fishhead said:
Kings odds as of 4/11/2022:

MoneyPuck - 77.8% Most likely finish - 3rd place (61.3%)

FiveThirtyEight - 58%

PlayoffStatus - 65% Most likely finish - 3rd place (45%)

SportsClubStats - Not updated

Average: 61.43%

Magic number*: We no longer control our own destiny

Right now, it looks like 99 points will do it. Need to go 6-1-1 unless other teams start losing.
Click to expand...

The teams in the west who sold at the deadline have been playing at a horrific level and Vegas especially has feasted on those teams to get back level with the Kings while the Kings struggled in this stretch vs. decent teams. Had the Kings been able to win 1 of those games at home vs. Calgary and Edmonton we are in a much better spot.

The Kings have to hold serve and take 8-10 from Chicago, Anaheim and Seattle. This is the position the Kings have put themselves in by losing to the Alberta teams at home.

BTW, tomorrow is my first Kings game of the year, perfect timing. The only positive is I didn't decide to do Minnesota yesterday which was the other option.
 
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cyclones22 said:
Been saying for months that the Kings inability to beat teams in their own conference was an issue that would come back to haunt them. There was a lot of statistical gymnastics thrown my way to show that a turnaround was imminent. 16-20-7 with a -24 differential as of today.

Over the last few weeks, the pregame show was really annoying me with their amount of talking like the Playoffs was close to a lock and how the Kings were going to hit 100 points. And before someone comes in and says a few weeks ago it looked like it, were these folks not keenly aware of this franchise's history of collapse?
Click to expand...
The Kings wound up with half the points in their games against the west since the Olympic break despite all of the injuries and the current three game losing streak. They had a 4 game win streak against the west early in this span before all of the injuries piled up. They got 5 of 6 points in the previous road trip. Maybe the issue is the issue is staying healthy when playing physical teams.
 
Injuries, that's news to me. Not like I've been watching the games or anything...for decades. I don't want to hear about the injury excuses anymore. What I have seen are opportunities at some very winnable games against some of the worst teams in the West, injuries or not, then baffling decisions being made to help convert those winnable games to losses.

I hope they scratch their way into the Playoffs. I hope that none of those injured guys return for it because there's more value in the young players who actually have a future in LA to experience it than guys who won't be on the roster next season.
 
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cyclones22 said:
Injuries, that's news to me. Not like I've been watching the games or anything...for decades. I don't want to hear about the injury excuses anymore. What I have seen are opportunities at some very winnable games against some of the worst teams in the West, injuries or not, then baffling decisions being made to help convert those winnable games to losses.
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This is true of lots of playoff teams. Just look at all the wins Seattle has against playoff teams. They swept Florida. Buffalo has beaten several playoff teams including Tampa (5-1) before trading Eichel. These are the only two I checked. Feel free to look at other bad team results. This isn't unusual. It happens every season so you should know this after watching hockey for decades.

Fans of every team question decisions by the coaches...Kings, Bruins, Caps, etc.

Watch home broadcasts of games not involving the Kings. Read other teams boards. Our complaints aren't unique. Neither are the Kings struggles even among teams that are consistently in the playoffs.
 
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I've been here for almost 20 years. I've seen and read it all. It doesn't make what I observe, or what others say any less valid. Well, other teams complain about their own teams too is not a valid reason for fans like me NOT to point it out issues when we see them. And the bottom line is that regardless of the context, the Kings are 16-20-7 against the West, yet dominate the East.
 
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cyclones22 said:
I've been here for almost 20 years. I've seen and read it all. It doesn't make what I observe, or what others say any less valid. Well, other teams complain about their own teams too is not a valid reason for fans like me NOT to point it out issues when we see them. And the bottom line is that regardless of the context, the Kings are 16-20-7 against the West, yet dominate the East.
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Cannot be below .500 in the west and expect to make the playoffs. Hate NHL .500, really LA have lost 11 games more than they have won vs other western teams.
 
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the optimist in me says after colorado the kings have a sweet schedule to end the year.
the pessimist in me says they have been squandering points and are cooling off as Vegas is getting red hot

It's a real mini-wheats situation.
 
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cyclones22 said:
I've been here for almost 20 years. I've seen and read it all. It doesn't make what I observe, or what others say any less valid. Well, other teams complain about their own teams too is not a valid reason for fans like me NOT to point it out issues when we see them. And the bottom line is that regardless of the context, the Kings are 16-20-7 against the West, yet dominate the East.
Click to expand...
The issues aren't unique. Do they make a significant difference since everyone has similar issues with coaches making bad lineups, favoring vets, losing to bad teams? Injuries appear different to me. Only 2 teams with less than 300 man-games lost this season are currently out of a playoff spot. Only 3 teams with more than 300 man-games lost are currently in a playoff spot, including LA around 375 man-games lost. There are arguments against the way the first line has been used by TMac. Is that as impactful as Doughty and others being healthy for divisional games. I don't think so. The issues might even be related so the Kings aren't playing 5 rookies/prospects on the ice at the same time.
 
Stone is likely returning next game for VGK. They were waiting to put 3 other players on LTIR until he'd be activated, and I believe all three were moved to it today.
 
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