Playoffs: Don't Tell Me The Odds

[KingsFan7824]

Johnson wouldn't commit to defense and he would take too many chances, Murray loved the guy believing the defense would get there, Sutter hated Johnson's caviler attitude towards defense and preferred the little guy Voynov in the offensive situations.

Carter's arrival in LA was fueled allot by Johnson's erratic defensive game and the other defensemen's ability to eat those minutes without sacrificing defense for offense. Leading up to the trade you could see Johnson's minutes dip especially in close games.

Bottom line, IMO, is if Johnson was a plus 12 and not a minus 12 on 2/23/12, he's more than likely is not traded for Jeff Carter.

Johnson played just as much if not more per game in the month before the trade than he had from the start of the season up to a month before the trade.

There was no plan to trade Johnson. That was fueled by Gagne getting hurt and nobody scoring.

Is there anything for which you give Dean Lombardi credit?

Not trading Kopitar when the team was leading the division and in the top 5 overall by January 2016. And you can't let him walk. Main pieces of multiple Cup winners get paid and rewarded by the organization if they wish to stay. Kind of a no brainer really, but you don't want to get too smart. Like he did with Richards in June 2014. He out-thought himself on that one, although I get why.

Continuing to go for it even after a crappy 14-15 season. You only have so many chances, and Lucic helped the team more in the time frame that mattered than whoever they would've taken in 2015.

But no, what happened during the 11-12 regular season was not part of any master plan. It was a disaster in the making, and the situation was ultimately saved by desperate moves.

 

[YP44]

Johnson played just as much if not more per game in the month before the trade than he had from the start of the season up to a month before the trade.

There was no plan to trade Johnson. That was fueled by Gagne getting hurt and nobody scoring.



Not trading Kopitar when the team was leading the division and in the top 5 overall by January 2016. And you can't let him walk. Main pieces of multiple Cup winners get paid and rewarded by the organization if they wish to stay. Kind of a no brainer really, but you don't want to get too smart. Like he did with Richards in June 2014. He out-thought himself on that one, although I get why.

Continuing to go for it even after a crappy 14-15 season. You only have so many chances, and Lucic helped the team more in the time frame that mattered than whoever they would've taken in 2015.

But no, what happened during the 11-12 regular season was not part of any master plan. It was a disaster in the making, and the situation was ultimately saved by desperate moves.

I thought it was fueled by Carter requesting out of or not liking it in Columbus. Once that happened the Kings had the assets because Johnson still had a lot of clout. LA could afford to lose him because they had Voynov coming up, and new Carter would fit in with Richards.

Sucked Gagne got injured, he was a favorite non-king for me for a while beforehand. When Philly went to the finals their top line became LA's second line once Carter trade happened. That is still insane to me.

 

[KINGS17]

Johnson played just as much if not more per game in the month before the trade than he had from the start of the season up to a month before the trade.

There was no plan to trade Johnson. That was fueled by Gagne getting hurt and nobody scoring.



Not trading Kopitar when the team was leading the division and in the top 5 overall by January 2016. And you can't let him walk. Main pieces of multiple Cup winners get paid and rewarded by the organization if they wish to stay. Kind of a no brainer really, but you don't want to get too smart. Like he did with Richards in June 2014. He out-thought himself on that one, although I get why.

Continuing to go for it even after a crappy 14-15 season. You only have so many chances, and Lucic helped the team more in the time frame that mattered than whoever they would've taken in 2015.

But no, what happened during the 11-12 regular season was not part of any master plan. It was a disaster in the making, and the situation was ultimately saved by desperate moves.

So, essentially everything Lombardi did to have the Kings go to three consecutive Western Conference Finals, and win two Stanley Cups over that span of three seasons was pure dumb luck, and re-signing Kopitar to an 8-year, $80M deal was genius.

Got it. You have zero credibility.

 

[KingsFan7824]

I thought it was fueled by Carter requesting out of or not liking it in Columbus. Once that happened the Kings had the assets because Johnson still had a lot of clout. LA could afford to lose him because they had Voynov coming up, and new Carter would fit in with Richards.

Sucked Gagne got injured, he was a favorite non-king for me for a while beforehand. When Philly went to the finals their top line became LA's second line once Carter trade happened. That is still insane to me.

Gagne/Kopitar/Brown
Penner/Richards/Williams

Assume King and Nolan still catche the apple of Sutter's eye. Penner was brought in and paid to score. Where does Carter play if Gagne isn't hurt?

Not knowing they'd have only 6 defensemen play every second of 20 playoff games, is it more or less likely that DL would like to have had Johnson in addition to Doughty, Scuderi, Mitchell, Voynov, Greene, and Martinez? Since Johnson was still playing, up until he got traded, more than Voynov or Martinez.

 

[YP44]

Gagne/Kopitar/Brown
Penner/Richards/Williams

Assume King and Nolan still catche the apple of Sutter's eye. Penner was brought in and paid to score. Where does Carter play if Gagne isn't hurt?

Not knowing they'd have only 6 defensemen play every second of 20 playoff games, is it more or less likely that DL would like to have had Johnson in addition to Doughty, Scuderi, Mitchell, Voynov, Greene, and Martinez? Since Johnson was still playing, up until he got traded, more than Voynov or Martinez.

Why are you lookng back so negatively to such a great period of time? Lots of things had to go right. A lot of that was luck, a lot of it was those in charge and the players making their luck.

I feel there are often more than 1 reason for trades to occur. Bottom line when Carter was available it checked a lot of boxes for LA. One of those boxes, no doubt, was to improve forward depth and scoring (Gagne injury).

 

[KINGS17]

I thought it was fueled by Carter requesting out of or not liking it in Columbus. Once that happened the Kings had the assets because Johnson still had a lot of clout. LA could afford to lose him because they had Voynov coming up, and new Carter would fit in with Richards.

Sucked Gagne got injured, he was a favorite non-king for me for a while beforehand. When Philly went to the finals their top line became LA's second line once Carter trade happened. That is still insane to me.

Yeah, I think it was fueled by a few factors:

1. Johnson for all his physical ability, just didn't have much hockey sense, so was often a liability in his own end.

2. The Kings had a replacement for him in Voynov, which turned out to be a much better fit.

3. The Kings needed scoring, and Carter became available from Columbus.

All this meets the definition of luck, which as we all know is, "When preparation meets opportunity."

 

[KingsFan7824]

Why are you lookng back so negatively to such a great period of time? Lots of things had to go right. A lot of that was luck, a lot of it was those in charge and the players making their luck.

I feel there are often more than 1 reason for trades to occur. Bottom line when Carter was available it checked a lot of boxes for LA. One of those boxes, no doubt, was to improve forward depth and scoring (Gagne injury).

Because, as is often the case when a team isn't right on the brink of greatness, we're having endless discussions on the absolute minutia of how exactly a rebuild is supposed to go. Going back to the great period the Kings had, is looking back at how it came to be. They missed on a top 5 pick. The loss of Teddy freakin' Purcell and Matt Moulson were huge deals, up until it wasn't anymore. How do you let a 30 goal winger go for nothing? If he had scored 30 here, with Purcell doing the same, maybe theres no Penner, Gagne, or Carter. Do you win a Cup with Moulson and Purcell? Are they winners? I'm almost sure the severe lack of offense from Stoll and Penner was a major concern going into the 2012 playoffs. Then they each score huge series winning goals, and hey, the Kings were just a beastly team destined to win.

Today, the Kings shouldn't be making the playoffs. They're doing everything wrong. I remember we wondered if DL screwing Visnovsky over would hurt the franchise. What did it do? Nothing.

Will making the playoffs riding veterans hurt the Kings in the future? I don't know, but we have some people that seem to think that's an absolute yes.

It's the certainty in predicting the future. In a negative way. No kidding. The Kings, no matter who is in charge, or what they do, are unlikely to win, or even truly contend for, the Cup in the next decade. Same was true a decade ago. Like you said, a lot of things have to go your way. And we don't know what those things are yet. The Kings snuck in there when the Pens and Hawks were supposed to be a tier above. Even Vancouver too.

 

[tomd]

There should be a separate thread to rehash the decisions of the prior decade over and over again.

 

[Herby]

Lombardi inherited two future Hall of Fame players in the system, added a third in 2008 and did a good job building a team around those three as well as Brown (a legit star in 2012) another inherited player.

The problem for Lombardi (and now Blake) was after drafting Doughty he never drafted another difference maker in LA. He drafted some nice secondary pieces but ended up trading a lot of those (Simmonds, Schenn, Cernak) and keeping others (Toffoli, Pearson,Martinez) but you can’t keep sustained success when you draft as few impact players as LA had under him.

Once Richards, Voynov, Mitchell, Williams etc left they couldn’t find replacements and the same is true now as they have yet to find replacements for the pillars of the glory years 11-8-32

Backup goalie (11)
Quality Bottom six forward (17)
Bust (4)
Future Hall of Famer (2)
Bust (13)
Quality 2nd line forward (5)
3rd Pairing defender (15)
Fringe 2nd line forward (30)
Whatever you consider Kempe, current 1RW (29)
——————-
AAAA forward, current scratch (11)
Decent 4th line forward, current 4C (20)
AHL secondary forward, current AHL (5)
Depth defenseman, current scratch (22)
Depth forward, current scratch (2)
Star junior d-man, OHL (8)


Put the line because that seems to be the age where people still consider someone a prospect vs a bust (Clague 16 vs Vilardi 17). But also included the players current roles in the organization. I just don’t know how these scouts have all been able to hold their jobs, I really don’t. Nothing personal against Yanetti he seems like a cool dude from his interviews, but this is a results oriented business and the results just haven’t been there.

 

[kingsholygrail]

There should be a separate thread to rehash the decisions of the prior decade over and over again.

Should be a sticky.

 

[TwzKing]

Why are we talking about anything other than playoff odds?

 

[DoktorJeep]

If there is a stickied Remember When … thread, the title needs to feature:

Kings Cups Scoreboard: Lombardi (2) vs Blake (-1)

 

[kingsfan]

I don't. LA got 2 last night leaving 3 points left which would put the Kings at 95 points.
For Vegas to get to 95 points they would need 8 points out of their remaining 5 games. 3-0-2, 4-1 would do it, but large task.

Only one of Vegas or Vancouver have to go on that type of hot streak. The odds one does is still pretty decent, no way I'd like to chance us going 2-2 down the stretch and assuming Vancouver won't go 5-0 or Vegas goes 4-1. They've both been hot before and Vancouver's got one of the league's better records since Boudreau took over.

 

[Sausages]

Kraken getting hot.

 

[Fishhead]

Rough odds of Kings making the playoffs by point total:

95 points: ~60%
96 points: ~90%
97 points: ~96%
98 points: 100%

 

[Faterson]

What about 94, 93 and 92 points?

(Gotta ask, as a long-suffering Kings fan. I guess even 92 points isn't an outright 0 %. Hell, in the east, it looks like less than 90 points would have been enough this season.)

 

[Lt Dan]

There should be a separate thread to rehash the decisions of the prior decade over and over again.

Agreed

Mods can we split this other convo in to another thread titled : "Lombardi won cups and so far Blake has only won Your Momma"

 

[Magicman]

What about 94, 93 and 92 points?

(Gotta ask, as a long-suffering Kings fan. I guess even 92 points isn't an outright 0 %. Hell, in the east, it looks like less than 90 points would have been enough this season.)

Based on todays standing it looks as every team in the playoffs in the East will have more than 100 points when the season ends. Of those with less than 100 points currently.
Pitt-97 with 5 to play
Bos-99 with 6 to play
Was-97 with 5 to play

 

[Herby]

Based on todays standing it looks as every team in the playoffs in the East will have more than 100 points when the season ends. Of those with less than 100 points currently.
Pitt-97 with 5 to play
Bos-99 with 6 to play
Was-97 with 5 to play

This has been one odd season for the NHL.

Scoring is at almost pre-dead puck era totals and the parity is the worst I can ever remember. Other than Winnipeg, NYI and Columbus everyone else is going to be 95+ or sub 80.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

This has been one odd season for the NHL.

Scoring is at almost pre-dead puck era totals and the parity is the worst I can ever remember. Other than Winnipeg, NYI and Columbus everyone else is going to be 95+ or sub 80.

Have to wonder if the scoring particularly the 5v5 scoring is an aberration. I'ts strange to see 'super teams' and their opposite in the cap era, too, but maybe not considering a team like the Coyotes is designing themselves as the opposite of a super team on purpose.

Lotta UFA scorers gonna get overpaid this offseason, taht's for certain

 

[Faterson]

Based on todays standing it looks as every team in the playoffs in the East will have more than 100 points when the season ends.

Yeah, but my point was that the weakest of those 8 play-off teams in the East could currently only have an absurd 81 (!) points, and still be in a play-off spot there.

Compare that with the West, where 81 points (Winnipeg's current situation) means you're practically eliminated from the play-offs.

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

There should be a separate thread to rehash the decisions of the prior decade over and over again.

No way, it's like sitting at Thanksgiving dinner, everyone enjoying their food and then all of the sudden, Aunt Susie and Uncle Vern start yelling at each other and bringing up the past 10 years,,,,again. And everyone is silently watching uncomfortably but trying to remember everything for the car ride home so they can talk about it. The moderators are Uncle Bill who tries to smooth it all over, but he's a drunk so..... , this is an online family holiday away from the work day. We all know everyone lives for it.

 

[Lt Dan]

No way, it's like sitting at Thanksgiving dinner, everyone enjoying their food and then all of the sudden, Aunt Susie and Uncle Vern start yelling at each other and bringing up the past 10 years,,,,again. And everyone is silently watching uncomfortably but trying to remember everything for the car ride home so they can talk about it.

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

That's the bitterness around here. Same tone.

 

[KingsHockey24]

That's the bitterness around here. Same tone.

Same age as most of our posters too!