Playoffs: Don't Tell Me The Odds

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I don’t like looking at quality of opponents this time of year. The weak teams always play well and the strong teams always rest their star players getting ready for the playoffs.
Yah, COL sure proved that the other night. Please give me the Avalanche and the Lighting the last 5 games instead of the Ducks or the Kraken.
 
Luck is the residue of design.

Lombardi had a plan. Lombardi also got very lucky.

Both things can be true.
“Luck favors the prepared”

DL didn’t know specifically that Carter or Sutter would be available, but he put the team in a position to be ready for those opportunities.
 
“Luck favors the prepared”

DL didn’t know specifically that Carter or Sutter would be available, but he put the team in a position to be ready for those opportunities.

Opportunities is just not the right word for that. Get rid of Murray for Sutter in the summer. Get Carter instead of Gagne. That's opportunity. If Gagne doesn't get hurt, and if the team isn't out of the playoffs half way through the season, there is no Carter or Sutter. That was, I went all in on this thing, and this roster still isn't good enough, and I'm going to get fired, so I better think of something.

We chuckle at JMFJ today, but through 61 games that year, he was 2nd on the defense in ice time. After Sutter got there, he was 3rd on the defense in ice time. His last month as a King, he was 3rd on the defense in ice time. He was a major piece of that team. Today we look back and say, well obviously the Kings had Voynov and Martinez as clearly better players, and could easily afford to trade Johnson, but Johnson was the one that was playing up until the moment he got traded. 20+ minutes every night. So what the hell was Sutter thinking? OId man's crazy.

That wasn't ready for opportunities. It was desperation. It was, OMG, I need another forward, because the injury prone guy I signed shockingly got hurt again, and the other guy I brought in the year before didn't score when we got him, and still can't score.
 
Opportunities is just not the right word for that. Get rid of Murray for Sutter in the summer. Get Carter instead of Gagne. That's opportunity. If Gagne doesn't get hurt, and if the team isn't out of the playoffs half way through the season, there is no Carter or Sutter. That was, I went all in on this thing, and this roster still isn't good enough, and I'm going to get fired, so I better think of something.

We chuckle at JMFJ today, but through 61 games that year, he was 2nd on the defense in ice time. After Sutter got there, he was 3rd on the defense in ice time. His last month as a King, he was 3rd on the defense in ice time. He was a major piece of that team. Today we look back and say, well obviously the Kings had Voynov and Martinez as clearly better players, and could easily afford to trade Johnson, but Johnson was the one that was playing up until the moment he got traded. 20+ minutes every night. So what the hell was Sutter thinking? OId man's crazy.

That wasn't ready for opportunities. It was desperation. It was, OMG, I need another forward, because the injury prone guy I signed shockingly got hurt again, and the other guy I brought in the year before didn't score when we got him, and still can't score.
So your just ignoring the part where we were ended up the best team in the league for 3 years?
 
Opportunities is just not the right word for that. Get rid of Murray for Sutter in the summer. Get Carter instead of Gagne. That's opportunity. If Gagne doesn't get hurt, and if the team isn't out of the playoffs half way through the season, there is no Carter or Sutter. That was, I went all in on this thing, and this roster still isn't good enough, and I'm going to get fired, so I better think of something.

We chuckle at JMFJ today, but through 61 games that year, he was 2nd on the defense in ice time. After Sutter got there, he was 3rd on the defense in ice time. His last month as a King, he was 3rd on the defense in ice time. He was a major piece of that team. Today we look back and say, well obviously the Kings had Voynov and Martinez as clearly better players, and could easily afford to trade Johnson, but Johnson was the one that was playing up until the moment he got traded. 20+ minutes every night. So what the hell was Sutter thinking? OId man's crazy.

That wasn't ready for opportunities. It was desperation. It was, OMG, I need another forward, because the injury prone guy I signed shockingly got hurt again, and the other guy I brought in the year before didn't score when we got him, and still can't score.
Johnson wouldn't commit to defense and he would take too many chances, Murray loved the guy believing the defense would get there, Sutter hated Johnson's caviler attitude towards defense and preferred the little guy Voynov in the offensive situations.

Carter's arrival in LA was fueled allot by Johnson's erratic defensive game and the other defensemen's ability to eat those minutes without sacrificing defense for offense. Leading up to the trade you could see Johnson's minutes dip especially in close games.

Bottom line, IMO, is if Johnson was a plus 12 and not a minus 12 on 2/23/12, he's more than likely is not traded for Jeff Carter.
 
So your just ignoring the part where we were ended up the best team in the league for 3 years?

I seem to remember I had a "conversation" with a poster here who said the 2012 to 2014 Kings were not a great team. I can't remember who it was, but it was ridiculous. Ignore the 10-1 playoffs series record or the times that team won 8 consecutive playoff games in a row in 2012 and 6 consecutive in 2013 and 2014 playoffs. I just know that fans of other teams were deathly afraid of matching up with the Kings in the playoffs during that time. Cup, Conference Final, Cup is not what good teams do. Great teams do that.
 
Opportunities is just not the right word for that. Get rid of Murray for Sutter in the summer. Get Carter instead of Gagne. That's opportunity. If Gagne doesn't get hurt, and if the team isn't out of the playoffs half way through the season, there is no Carter or Sutter. That was, I went all in on this thing, and this roster still isn't good enough, and I'm going to get fired, so I better think of something.

We chuckle at JMFJ today, but through 61 games that year, he was 2nd on the defense in ice time. After Sutter got there, he was 3rd on the defense in ice time. His last month as a King, he was 3rd on the defense in ice time. He was a major piece of that team. Today we look back and say, well obviously the Kings had Voynov and Martinez as clearly better players, and could easily afford to trade Johnson, but Johnson was the one that was playing up until the moment he got traded. 20+ minutes every night. So what the hell was Sutter thinking? OId man's crazy.

That wasn't ready for opportunities. It was desperation. It was, OMG, I need another forward, because the injury prone guy I signed shockingly got hurt again, and the other guy I brought in the year before didn't score when we got him, and still can't score.
Is there anything for which you give Dean Lombardi credit?
 
I seem to remember I had a "conversation" with a poster here who said the 2012 to 2014 Kings were not a great team. I can't remember who it was, but it was ridiculous. Ignore the 10-1 playoffs series record or the times that team won 8 consecutive playoff games in a row in 2012 and 6 consecutive in 2013 and 2014 playoffs. I just know that fans of other teams were deathly afraid of matching up with the Kings in the playoffs during that time. Cup, Conference Final, Cup is not what good teams do. Great teams do that.
was 2013 the year the Hawks had Kane on LTIR and then he was magically better the start of playoffs. Pissed me off then, and now it is being called the Kucherov exception. Hawks took advantage first!
 
was 2013 the year the Hawks had Kane on LTIR and then he was magically better the start of playoffs. Pissed me off then, and now it is being called the Kucherov exception. Hawks took advantage first!
I think that was 2015.
Kane had 64 points in 61 games in 2015 and was arguably the best player on the planet that year until his injury though. He had a 26-game point streak that year! The Hawks finished 4th in the West.


The Blackhawks' big acquisitions at the trade deadline were Antoine Vermette and Kimmo Timmonen. Vermette had 3 assists in 19 regular season games and then 7 points in the playoffs, while Timmonen literally didn't score the rest of the year.

They weren't even close to the same thing, and I hated those Blackhawks teams.
 
Kane had 64 points in 61 games in 2015 and was arguably the best player on the planet that year until his injury though. He had a 26-game point streak that year! The Hawks finished 4th in the West.


The Blackhawks' big acquisitions at the trade deadline were Antoine Vermette and Kimmo Timmonen. Vermette had 3 assists in 19 regular season games and then 7 points in the playoffs, while Timmonen literally didn't score the rest of the year.

They weren't even close to the same thing, and I hated those Blackhawks teams.

Vermette had 3 GWG in the playoffs, including an OT winner in the WCF. He also crushed the face-off circle. Hawks fans will generally tell you that it was an important acquisition.

The Hawks did it first and they won a Cup doing so. TB did it in a higher-profile fashion but Chicago set the precedent.
 
Alright, that's fine, but Vermette made about as much as Jarret Stoll. There's a pretty huge difference between what the Hawks did and what Tampa and now Vegas are doing.

If we want to go back further, Pittsburgh did it in 2012-13, and more teams did it before that.
 
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Alright, that's fine, but Vermette made about as much as Jarret Stoll. There's a pretty huge difference between what the Hawks did and what Tampa and now Vegas are doing.

If we want to go back further, Pittsburgh did it in 2012-13, and more teams did it before that.
Hakws got Kane, Tampa got Kucherov. Pretty similar IMO.
 
Would love to see VGK miss the playoffs. Just watch the fanbase implode and slowly realize they missed their window. Meanwhile, get some of our kiddos some experience.

a lot of teams would. They still have 3 very good teams and 2 ? teams to play would could derail their chances just as easily.
 
With VGK's regulation loss last night, MoneyPuck has the Kings' chances at 85.3%.

Seems a bit high IMO.
Not high IMO

The Kings have 4 games against awful teams. The Kings are -165 tonight and that is probably the least favored they will be in any of the next 4 games.

If the Kings win tonight (expected) and Vegas loses to the Caps tomorrow (probably a coin flip), you can read Vegas their last rights.

I know people are worried about Vancouver but they have road games at Minnesota, Edmonton and Calgary and probably have to end up with 5-6 points to have a chance.
 
I know.

But I don't think that formula takes into account how the Kings have played recently. This team looks like it's ready to lay some eggs.

I suspect they will make the playoffs, but from my qualitative POV it's not 83%+ likely.

Then again, there's been plenty of times this season where the Kings have looked like crap, the suddenly put together a string of wins.
 

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