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Playoffs: Don't Tell Me The Odds

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Axl Rhoadz said:
Perfect timing as the next 3-4 games are the most important of the season.
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If anything they should have had this lineup vs the tougher teams the last week or so and let the rookies finish vs the weaker teams coming up to gain some confidence for some playoff time. Scratching them after getting blown out vs colorado is a whacky move. Especially considering it was a team effort.
 
Raccoon Jesus said:
I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm simply saying the players shouldn't be the ones running the show and it's coaching/management's job to rearrange things in the way that makes the most sense for the future of the franchise. Of course if I'm any one of the vets on the team I want my spot whether I deserve it or not.

Re: Grundstrom I keep bringing him up because others focus on strictly production rather than development; here's an example of a guy who gets benched after he scores in favor of vets and is being misused just like any of the other kids so we can play guys in their late 20s who won't be here next year. If I'm a King in my early 20s that keeps getting treated like that, I'm out first chance I get. Sure, ultimately he's probably just a tweener depth player; great! let's play him instead of some of the deadweight that's likely on its way out. It all just brings me back to my first point, all things being equal, this year was supposed to be about developing the kids while being competitive--if they were all getting smoked by vets that would be one thing, but it's not the case, many of the vets ARE NOT playing winning hockey, theyre losing checks and matchups everywhere...and management doesn't have the balls to bench guys who are blowing it all over the place but can leave kids off the power play and punish them for lack of produciton or, in Tonka's case, you get benched anyway with a coach LITERALLY SAYING "you did nothing wrong."
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Unfortunately coaches can and are fired at the drop of a hat, so like players, they live for today. They're trying to win the next game. The reason they usually trust veterans, no matter how many games they haven't scored in, is because they've done it before. A coach cares about the next shift. All it takes is one shift for a guy to score. If a coach's continued employment is dependent on untrustworthy players, he will play who he trusts the most. That's usually a veteran. Then, after a period of the benefit of the doubt, if a vet shows they're not doing anything, then a coach will move him aside. That period is different for different coaches. Could be 10 games, could be 60 games.

GMs shouldn't be dictating who is in the day to day lineup anyway. They get the guy, but then it's the coach's call. The Oakland A's never won anything. Everyone wanting Brad Pitt to be GM, because he got rid of a player because the coach refused to play another guy, the A's won absolutely nothing.
 
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Schmooley said:
If anything they should have had this lineup vs the tougher teams the last week or so and let the rookies finish vs the weaker teams coming up to gain some confidence for some playoff time. Scratching them after getting blown out vs colorado is a whacky move. Especially considering it was a team effort.
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can talk 'should have' all day when the team is losing. It's gut-check time, patience is low waiting for the kids to show up, they can do that in ONT if that's the plan at this point of the season. Need to lock down a playoff spot, then let the kids fiddle with their training wheels. I think it would be a whackier move to continue on with what's not working at a point in the season when we don't have time to just let things sort themselves out.
 
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Axl Rhoadz said:
can talk 'should have' all day when the team is losing. It's gut-check time, patience is low waiting for the kids to show up, they can do that in ONT if that's the plan at this point of the season. Need to lock down a playoff spot, then let the kids fiddle with their training wheels. I think it would be a whackier move to continue on with what's not working at a point in the season when we don't have time to just let things sort themselves out.
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Exactly, the leash was pretty long, that unit had what 16-17 games together and just didn’t cut it. It wasn’t Brown or AA’s fault or even TM’s fault, it’s all on them. So many here wanted a kid line and insisted that QB and Gabe would thrive together, they didn’t, not even close, Kupari was by far the most impactful of the 3 and that is why he is still in the “lineup.

The Kings have refreshingly kind of become a meritocracy here the last couple days, with Iafallo finally demoted, the invisible rookies benched and Kaliyev getting a chance up top. I just wish they’d put Spence on the #1 PP unit.
 
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Trash Panda said:
With the schedule in front of Vegas being every bit as easy as the kings, coupled with this current teams propensity for laying eggs at the most inopportune times, makes for a very tight final run to the playoffs.

4 out of 5 wins for LA seals it up, and anything less is relying on VGK losses.
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Blues, Stars, Caps going to be the 3 toughest. Kings toughest is Vancouver....but Seattle and Chicago both beat Kings previous and Ducks is rivalry so no lay downs there.
 
Keep an eye on NSH, they have a really difficult schedule remaining starting with today (STL). I think they have a good chance of falling out of the race and the Kings could end up in that wild card if VGK passes them.
 
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Axl Rhoadz said:
Keep an eye on NSH, they have a really difficult schedule remaining starting with today (STL). I think they have a good chance of falling out of the race and the Kings could end up in that wild card if VGK passes them.
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Was just about to say this, but it kind of applies to everyone but Edmonton--Dallas, NSH, VGK have been winning like crazy too but they're teams much like us, streaky as all hell with issues. Can't COUNT on it, but wouldn't be surprised if one just starts bombing.
 
Yesterday was a huge swing for us. We now have a 66% chance of making the playoffs compared to just 35% for Vegas, and our win combined with their loss yesterday resulted in a +15.6% increase in our odds and a -23.7% decrease in their odds.

Just a huge night for our playoff hopes all around.

Our only real option is beating out Vegas for the third spot in the Pacific — Nashville and Dallas have the same record, 75 games played and 91 points. Even if we only lose one more game the rest of the way, both Nashville and Dallas would only need to go 3-3-1 to capture the wild card spots. Not saying it's impossible, but the only real race left here is between us and Vegas.
 
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kilowatt said:
Yesterday was a huge swing for us. We now have a 66% chance of making the playoffs compared to just 35% for Vegas, and our win combined with their loss yesterday resulted in a +15.6% increase in our odds and a -23.7% decrease in their odds.

Just a huge night for our playoff hopes all around.

Our only real option is beating out Vegas for the third spot in the Pacific — Nashville and Dallas have the same record, 75 games played and 91 points. Even if we only lose one more game the rest of the way, both Nashville and Dallas would only need to go 3-3-1 to capture the wild card spots. Not saying it's impossible, but the only real race left here is between us and Vegas.
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Take a look at NSH’s remaining schedule….I don’t think they will go .500 or better the rest of the way.
 
MBH said:
All 5 remaining games against non playoff teams.
8 points, minimum.
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I think Vegas is going to win most of their games from here on out.

Kings probably need 7 points at least.
 
Axl Rhoadz said:
Take a look at NSH’s remaining schedule….I don’t think they will go .500 or better the rest of the way.
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Yeah, they have the toughest road for sure.

St. Louis
Calgary
@ Tampa Bay
Minnesota (second night of a back to back)
Calgary
@ Colorado
@ Arizona

Still, with seven games left, are we really expecting them to do worse than 2-4-1? Even that would get them to 96 points. We would need to do better than 3-3 to beat them there.
 
DryIslandBartender said:
Prior to 2012 run, the Kings were clearly outmatched by the Canucks/Sharks. The young guys on the team learned a lot from the losses and made them hungrier. They miss the playoffs, they’ll miss out on that.
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Did it? Because they added more vets, and then brought in a hard ass coach, by April 2012. The day before hiring Sutter, they were 11th in the West, and 20th overall. 30th in GF. A -9 differential. 11 RW to 14 RL. 23rd on the PP.

From the day Sutter was hired to the day before Carter got here, they were 10th in the West, and 15th overall. 29th in GF. 22nd on the PP. A +6 differential though.

Can you imagine if Carter didn't cry his way out of Columbus? Because there was not another Carter traded at that deadline.

We write these grand narratives. Prior to a certain time, and after a certain time. Of course the benefit on hindsight is always there. This or that move is the right one at the right time. DL's master plan getting Richards. Then they're 9th in the conference and 17th overall on Feb 22nd, with more regulation losses than regulation wins. I highly doubt that was the plan. Carter was not part of the plan. Sutter wasn't part of the plan. Both of those moves were made in total desperation, when the grand plan was falling apart. Had Gagne remained healthy, let alone had he and Penner been able to score, I doubt that trade gets made.

We have these ideas on how a rebuild should go. Who should play. When they should play. How much they should play. Who shouldn't play. Exactly when to call a guy up. Where they should slot where they'll maxmize their play and production.

They totally missed on Hickey, lucked out that Muzzin was as good as he was, lucked out that Carter was available for far less than what Columbus paid for him, and then lucked out that DL's good ole Canadian farm boy buddy was sitting on his ranch when he needed him. None of that is a plan. That's well I guess we'll try this and try that. Oh, that didn't work? Ok, then I guess we'll try this over here. Hey, maybe this other thing will work.
 
KingsFan7824 said:
Did it? Because they added more vets, and then brought in a hard ass coach, by April 2012. The day before hiring Sutter, they were 11th in the West, and 20th overall. 30th in GF. A -9 differential. 11 RW to 14 RL. 23rd on the PP.

From the day Sutter was hired to the day before Carter got here, they were 10th in the West, and 15th overall. 29th in GF. 22nd on the PP. A +6 differential though.

Can you imagine if Carter didn't cry his way out of Columbus? Because there was not another Carter traded at that deadline.

We write these grand narratives. Prior to a certain time, and after a certain time. Of course the benefit on hindsight is always there. This or that move is the right one at the right time. DL's master plan getting Richards. Then they're 9th in the conference and 17th overall on Feb 22nd, with more regulation losses than regulation wins. I highly doubt that was the plan. Carter was not part of the plan. Sutter wasn't part of the plan. Both of those moves were made in total desperation, when the grand plan was falling apart. Had Gagne remained healthy, let alone had he and Penner been able to score, I doubt that trade gets made.

We have these ideas on how a rebuild should go. Who should play. When they should play. How much they should play. Who shouldn't play. Exactly when to call a guy up. Where they should slot where they'll maxmize their play and production.

They totally missed on Hickey, lucked out that Muzzin was as good as he was, lucked out that Carter was available for far less than what Columbus paid for him, and then lucked out that DL's good ole Canadian farm boy buddy was sitting on his ranch when he needed him. None of that is a plan. That's well I guess we'll try this and try that. Oh, that didn't work? Ok, then I guess we'll try this over here. Hey, maybe this other thing will work.
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I've been pointing this out for years. DL wasn't some strategic genius, he was a riverboat gambler that got on a lucky streak and rode it for 3 years. Once the odds caught up (Richards, Voynov, Lucic etc) it all fell apart. I'm not complaining -- it was well worth the ride. The reality is to win cups in a hard cap era you need to get lucky with a lot of factors (drafting, injuries and contracts, ownership support, coaching etc). There are now 32 teams in the league that means a garden variety team can expect 3 championships in a hundred years. Some will get more others less. Cheers.
 
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KingsFan7824 said:
Did it? Because they added more vets, and then brought in a hard ass coach, by April 2012. The day before hiring Sutter, they were 11th in the West, and 20th overall. 30th in GF. A -9 differential. 11 RW to 14 RL. 23rd on the PP.

From the day Sutter was hired to the day before Carter got here, they were 10th in the West, and 15th overall. 29th in GF. 22nd on the PP. A +6 differential though.

Can you imagine if Carter didn't cry his way out of Columbus? Because there was not another Carter traded at that deadline.

We write these grand narratives. Prior to a certain time, and after a certain time. Of course the benefit on hindsight is always there. This or that move is the right one at the right time. DL's master plan getting Richards. Then they're 9th in the conference and 17th overall on Feb 22nd, with more regulation losses than regulation wins. I highly doubt that was the plan. Carter was not part of the plan. Sutter wasn't part of the plan. Both of those moves were made in total desperation, when the grand plan was falling apart. Had Gagne remained healthy, let alone had he and Penner been able to score, I doubt that trade gets made.

We have these ideas on how a rebuild should go. Who should play. When they should play. How much they should play. Who shouldn't play. Exactly when to call a guy up. Where they should slot where they'll maxmize their play and production.

They totally missed on Hickey, lucked out that Muzzin was as good as he was, lucked out that Carter was available for far less than what Columbus paid for him, and then lucked out that DL's good ole Canadian farm boy buddy was sitting on his ranch when he needed him. None of that is a plan. That's well I guess we'll try this and try that. Oh, that didn't work? Ok, then I guess we'll try this over here. Hey, maybe this other thing will work.
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Yes. The point is, the playoff losses drove home to the organization of what was needed. That was pretty clear from DL that these guys needed to learn to win and he also brought in winners to take that mindset to another level (off-season workouts, team get togethers etc).

TM brought in a system and Sutter brought in the mentality. The trades were for guys that win and put in the effort. The drafting of Voynov cancels out the Hickey selection. Bottom line is, there was a plan mapped out, DL had boxes for each position and what type of player he wanted there. He was building the roster how he saw fit into those boxes, it was not some dart throwing exercise.

I think just saying DL and the Kings got lucky and rode their lucky streak to two cups is not accurate at best. I also think saying that discredits the run the Kings made and feeds into the same narrative that fans of other teams make the same argument to diminish the cup runs.

The mentality and plan your describing was the Kings BEFORE DL showed up. The Kings cup wins were a collective effort, we needed everyone and it wasn’t just one or two players pulling their weight. We couldn’t win without Quick, without the D, the forwards, rolling 4 lines to keep pounding the opposition etc.

Again, making the playoffs is part of the process, I’m not for missing the playoffs because of some draft pick. The loser stench will stay with the Kings if they miss it. No thanks.
 
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