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Playoffs: Don't Tell Me The Odds

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johnjm22 said:
I know.

But I don't think that formula takes into account how the Kings have played recently. This team looks like it's ready to lay some eggs.

I suspect they will make the playoffs, but from my qualitative POV it's not 83%+ likely.

Then again, there's been plenty of times this season where the Kings have looked like crap, the suddenly put together a string of wins.
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It’s more the teams they are playing and not the Kings. If the Kings had 2 more games with Vancouver instead of the Ducks I’d be concerned but it’s hard to ignore just how bad the Ducks and Hawks have played the last couple of months.
 
johnjm22 said:
I know.

But I don't think that formula takes into account how the Kings have played recently. This team looks like it's ready to lay some eggs.

I suspect they will make the playoffs, but from my qualitative POV it's not 83%+ likely.

Then again, there's been plenty of times this season where the Kings have looked like crap, the suddenly put together a string of wins.
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VGK's next three games are Caps, Stars, Blues, I'm betting that's a factor
 
Herby said:
It’s more the teams they are playing and not the Kings. If the Kings had 2 more games with Vancouver instead of the Ducks I’d be concerned but it’s hard to ignore just how bad the Ducks and Hawks have played the last couple of months.
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Plus as you've pointed out for all the hand-wringing about how shitty we're playing and typically play down to opponents we have a stellar record vs. non playoff teams as a whol
 
I just don’t see this years Kings team collapsing in these final 5 games.

Already mentioned the opponents and I think the only way the Kings would lose more than 1 of these next 4 is by being completely out worked by teams with little to work for, where as the Kings have a lot.

Winning 4 in a row is tough for anyone, especially a blue collar team like the Kings but these 4 games are about as easy as it gets. I don’t know for a fact but this has to be the Kings easiest 4 game stretch of the year as far as points %.

If the Kings go 3-1-0 in the next 4 they’d be at 96 points going into Vancouver. The Canucks would have to end up with at least 6 points in their next 4 games (OTT, SEA, @MIN, @ CGY) hypothetically say they go 3-1, they would then have to beat the Kings in regulation in our finale and win their finale in Edmonton on a back to back. That is a tough task.
 
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Herby said:
I just don’t see this years Kings team collapsing in these final 5 games.

Already mentioned the opponents and I think the only way the Kings would lose more than 1 of these next 4 is by being completely out worked by teams with little to work for, where as the Kings have a lot.

Winning 4 in a row is tough for anyone, especially a blue collar team like the Kings but these 4 games are about as easy as it gets. I don’t know for a fact but this has to be the Kings easiest 4 game stretch of the year as far as points %.

If the Kings go 3-1-0 in the next 4 they’d be at 96 points going into Vancouver. The Canucks would have to end up with at least 6 points in their next 4 games (OTT, SEA, @MIN, @ CGY) hypothetically say they go 3-1, they would then have to beat the Kings in regulation in our finale and win their finale in Edmonton on a back to back. That is a tough task.
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Yup. The games in hand can be concerning in some circumstances, but when more games need to be played in a small time period, fatigue starts kicking in.
 
Anyone got anymore of those playoff magic/probability numbers?

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Five point lead over Vegas and Vancouver with four games to go and both of those teams having a game in hand.
If they win out we'd need to go 3-1 to clinch a spot so still work to do. That said, if we beat Vancouver when we play them, that would all but eliminate them from catching us.

Realistically, if we go 2-2 in our final four games, Vancouver or Vegas would have to almost win every game to catch us. Not 100% in but tonight was a huge help. Thanks Ottawa!
 
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Kings odds as of 4/20/2022:

MoneyPuck - 91.1% Most likely finish - 3rd place (85%)

FiveThirtyEight - 87%

PlayoffStatus - 93% Most likely finish - 3rd place (85%)

SportsClubStats - 87.5%

Average: 89.65%

Magic number: 6 points. Any combination of points earned and points lost by both VGK and Vancouver as they are tied. If Vegas wins and Vancouver loses, for example, it wouldn't affect the magic number. Once one is alone in 9th their points lost will reduce the number.

98 points is the target.
 
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The fact that it was Ottawa and New Jersey that did the damage to Vegas and Vancouver these last two nights is the reason I never look at quality of opponent in the final weeks of the season. Those are often times the toughest games to play. The Kings can absolutely lose a couple games in these last four.
 
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Fishhead said:
Kings odds as of 4/20/2022:

MoneyPuck - 91.1% Most likely finish - 3rd place (85%)

FiveThirtyEight - 87%

PlayoffStatus - 93% Most likely finish - 3rd place (85%)

SportsClubStats - 87.5%

Average: 89.65%

Magic number: 6 points. Any combination of points earned and points lost by both VGK and Vancouver as they are tied. If Vegas wins and Vancouver loses, for example, it wouldn't affect the magic number. Once one is alone in 9th their points lost will reduce the number.

98 points is the target.
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If anyone plays poker the Kings have the same odds of missing the playoffs as A-A does of losing to J-2 offsuit in a holdem hand.
 
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Fishhead said:
Kings odds as of 4/20/2022:

MoneyPuck - 91.1% Most likely finish - 3rd place (85%)

FiveThirtyEight - 87%

PlayoffStatus - 93% Most likely finish - 3rd place (85%)

SportsClubStats - 87.5%

Average: 89.65%

Magic number: 6 points. Any combination of points earned and points lost by both VGK and Vancouver as they are tied. If Vegas wins and Vancouver loses, for example, it wouldn't affect the magic number. Once one is alone in 9th their points lost will reduce the number.

98 points is the target.
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There's a very real chance that our last game of the season in Vancouver could decide who makes the playoffs. If we can win our next three games against Chicago, Anaheim, and Seattle, that game won't matter at all, but... I wouldn't say I'm super confident. All three seem like trap games.

With that said, here are the remaining schedules for Vegas and Vancouver.

Vegas: vs WSH, vs SJS, @ DAL, @ CHI, @ STL
Vancouver: @ MIN, @ CGY, vs SEA, vs LAK, @ EDM

Vegas has to face Dallas and Chicago on back to back days, which shouldn't we discount. They then finish up the season in St. Louis. Those are hard games.

We should also know by Sunday whether Vancouver is actually a threat, seeing as Minnesota and Calgary are two of the best teams in the league right now. Two regulation losses for Vancouver would be nigh insurmountable; finishing the season 3-2 for both Vegas and Vancouver would get them to 93 points, meaning we'd need to go 1-3 to make it.

The past few days have really swung the pendulum in our favor.
 
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For the scoreboard watchers:

Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers at 5:30PM PDT
Obviously a big game for both teams, but especially for the Stars. Stars are clinging to the last wild card spot, but hot Edmonton is trying to keep the second spot in the Pacific. Hope for a regulation win by either team.

Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights at 7:00PM PDT
Vegas pretty much in a must-win situation for its remaining 5 games, but they've lost two straight in regulation while the Caps have won two straight on their road trip, last one against the vaunted Avalanche. A regulation loss by VGK leaves them 5 points back of the Kings with 4 games to play each.
 
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Axl Rhoadz said:
But what about VAN?
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Being that VAN and VGK have the same number of points in the same number of games, the math is exactly the same.

VGK has more regulation wins (33) as of now, so the Kings (32) probably can't afford to tie. VAN has 31 regulation wins, so Kings might afford to tie them.

VAN has one game against the Kings, but VGK has none. It could come down to the last Kings game, and if the Kings get to overtime they get in, which would be wild.
 
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kingsfan said:
I think we'll need more than that.
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I don't. LA got 2 last night leaving 3 points left which would put the Kings at 95 points.
For Vegas to get to 95 points they would need 8 points out of their remaining 5 games. 3-0-2, 4-1 would do it, but large task.
 
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