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Playoffs: Don't Tell Me The Odds

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Raccoon Jesus said:
Have to wonder if the scoring particularly the 5v5 scoring is an aberration. I'ts strange to see 'super teams' and their opposite in the cap era, too, but maybe not considering a team like the Coyotes is designing themselves as the opposite of a super team on purpose.

Lotta UFA scorers gonna get overpaid this offseason, taht's for certain
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Maybe not an aberration, but I don't think the offense is any better, rather the defense is worse. I remember about 5 years ago when we kept hearing about the "new" NHL, where speed and skill will be king and checking, responsible guys a thing of the past. Teams have drafted and developed differently since then and coaches have implemented more free-wheeling systems. I think TM has actually excelled here, allowing the team to take risks but balancing responsible play. It's impressive where this team is right now despite not having the horses.

What strikes me is that despite the move towards speed/skill, not many young guys are tearing it up on the score sheet. What almost all those young guys are good at is being terrible defenders, and I feel it's going to take at least a few more years until scoring drops again. The beneficiaries have been the guys who are in their prime with a good defensive foundation, now they can take more chances and pad their numbers.
 
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Fishhead said:
Kings odds as of 4/20/2022:

MoneyPuck - 91.1% Most likely finish - 3rd place (85%)

FiveThirtyEight - 87%

PlayoffStatus - 93% Most likely finish - 3rd place (85%)

SportsClubStats - 87.5%

Average: 89.65%

Magic number: 6 points. Any combination of points earned and points lost by both VGK and Vancouver as they are tied. If Vegas wins and Vancouver loses, for example, it wouldn't affect the magic number. Once one is alone in 9th their points lost will reduce the number.

98 points is the target.
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Vegas losing to NJ and Vancouver losing tonight to Minnesota means the number is now 4, correct?
 
The magic number is now 4.

We are tied with Vegas in ROW, RW, and W, so the magic number will depend on those factors. Vegas could win out in OT/SO and the Kings would only need to go 1-0-1, provided that win is in regulation. Likewise, the Kings could go 2-1, winning in extra time in both games, and Vegas could win out with only a single regulation win and grab the spot.

Combined playoff odds right now sit at 95.75%
 
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I get magic number is 4 but I still think 1 more point will seal it.
Both Vegas and Dallas cannot both get 2 next tuesday.
 
I doubt we can steal home-ice advantage, but it's not impossible. If we win out, we'll end up with 100 points. If Edmonton goes 1-3-1, they'll finish with 99.

Edmonton still has games vs Colorado, @ Columbus, @ Pittsburgh, vs San Jose, and vs Vancouver (finishing the season on a back to back against a rival).

Very possible they could lose three of those games.
 
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The RW thing is going to eventually cause a team to pull its goalie in a tie game late in the year.

I still think every game should be a 3 point game.

3 RW
2 OT/SO W
1 OT/SO L
0 RL

To many NHL games now where it’s tied and the final 5 minutes is like watching Floyd Mayweather box himself.
 
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kilowatt said:
I doubt we can steal home-ice advantage, but it's not impossible. If we win out, we'll end up with 100 points. If Edmonton goes 1-3-1, they'll finish with 99.

Edmonton still has games vs Colorado, @ Columbus, @ Pittsburgh, vs San Jose, and vs Vancouver (finishing the season on a back to back against a rival).

Very possible they could lose three of those games.
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Problem with the Vancouver/Edmonton finale is that it’s also a back to back for Vancouver who plays at home vs the Kings then has to get on a plane and fly to Edmonton while the Oilers sleep in their own beds. Also it’s likely the Canucks will be KO’ed by then so very unlikely Demko plays a back to back.

If the Oilers lose tonight and then split their mini eastern trip to Columbus and Pittsburgh they are at 98 points and would only need to win one of their home games vs SJ or Vancouver or have the Kings lose one of their final 3 in regulation.

If the Oilers lose tonight and then lose in Columbus I’ll think it’s a possibility.
 
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Fishhead said:
Likewise, the Kings could go 2-1, winning in extra time in both games, and Vegas could win out with only a single regulation win and grab the spot.
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Not true. If the Kings win two more games in any fashion, Vegas (nor anyone else) can no longer catch them in any way.
 
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driller1 said:
Am I the only one who kind of hopes EDM has home ice?

1) plays to our underdog narrative
2) inexplicably we play better on the road
3) our home record…. Isn’t great
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I've mentioned it several times as well. I think we're better off as the #3 seed.

All the pressure in the world will be on Edmonton. Meanwhile Kings have nothing to lose.

Verse the Oilers this season:
At Home: 0-2-0
At EDM: 1-0-1
 
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Soapdodger said:
I also believe that home ice could be a disadvantage for Edmonton.
Just imagine the pressure if they lose Game1
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I think the media pressure was a GREAT asset in our series vs. Vancouver in 2012 and they actually had a more positive recent history, Edmonton's media is chomping at the bit for a choke
 
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Kings clinch with either 2 more wins or a win & a Vegas loss, do they not? Vegas loses, Kings win would leave them with 7 points ahead, with Vegas having 3 games remaining.
 
Adios Vancouver and Vegas is hanging on by a thread. I guess the premature playoff ticket sales weren't a jinx after all.
 
Vancouver needs very specific things to happen to make it in so they are essentially gonzo. They are no longer in the picture as far as the Kings are concerned at any rate. The DAL/VGK game Tuesday should be a bloodbath.

The Kings clinch with a Dallas regulation win on Tuesday, @Scottkmlps is correct.

If Vegas wins in regulation, the Kings only need a tie in their last two games to clinch.
 
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Herby said:
The RW thing is going to eventually cause a team to pull its goalie in a tie game late in the year.

I still think every game should be a 3 point game.

3 RW
2 OT/SO W
1 OT/SO L
0 RL

To many NHL games now where it’s tied and the final 5 minutes is like watching Floyd Mayweather box himself.
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That was the same complaint when OT was 5v5.

The point system in the standings won't make a difference. You think both teams will start getting crazy in the last 5 minutes of a tied game if you go down 3 points for a loss? At least one of those teams will still play conservatively, which will still dull the game down.

What you do is either start making different values for a goal, depending on when, where, or how you score, like the other 3 major sports do. Or, make like 10 random games during the season for each team worth 5pts for a win in regulation, but nobody knows which 10. Could be the first game of the year, could be the last game of the year, could be 10 games in a row in January.
 
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