Playoffs: Don't Tell Me The Odds

[cyclones22]

It's not all settled yet, but I think it's fair to say that Vegas choked this season.

I may be talking out of my ass, but I seem to recall that the Vegas dive coincided with Eichel's return to the lineup. I think Mark Stone hasn't done squat since his return from LTIR either.

 

[lumbergh]

DAL has got a LOT to play for tomorrow -- they need to keep VGK away from possibly stealing their wild-card spot. I think tomorrow's game is the best chance of VGK to lose out of the remaining 3.

That game is almost like a one game playoff, although Dallas could afford to lose that game and still make it in. If Dallas wins in regulation, they're in and Vegas is mathematically eliminated as they could not catch Nashville with tiebreakers.

 

[Fishhead]

I may be talking out of my ass, but I seem to recall that the Vegas dive coincided with Eichel's return to the lineup. I think Mark Stone hasn't done squat since his return from LTIR either.

They went down right when Eichel came back, but then they went on a streak (due to crappy competition). Now that it's getting tighter they are choking again.

I never like to pile on because of injuries, but it's kind of nice to see some Karma after all they do to get around the cap.

 

[kingsholygrail]

The format that makes the most sense to me with the "games should be worth the same" argument is that wins are 3 points, overtime and shootout wins are worth 2 points, overtime and shootout losses are worth 1 point, and regulation losses are worth 0 points.

In that scenario, the Kings would have 122 points. Here's how the West shakes out:

1. Colorado, 153 points
2. Calgary, 148 points
2. St. Louis, 148 points
4. Minnesota, 135 points
5. Edmonton, 127 points
6. Nashville, 123 points
7. Los Angeles, 122 points
8. Dallas, 115 points
8. Vegas, 115 points
10. Vancouver, 112 points

Or just go to W-L and eliminate points entirely.

 

[KingsFan7824]

To me the change is worth it just from the fairness point of view, but the the real difference is it removes an incentive to just make it to overtime. As Herby pointed out, when a game is tied with a couple minutes left, you see some games just slow down, as both teams are content to just get at least one point. This is especially prevalent in inter-conference games, as there's absolutely no incentive to play for a win but risk losing at the end of the game.

And why would both teams not want at least one point in a 3-2-1-0 system?

 

[kingsholygrail]

The 3-2-1 system Also gives winning over lesser opponents more value in regulation than beating a superior opponent in OT.

 

[lumbergh]

And why would both teams not want at least one point in a 3-2-1-0 system?

I'm sure both teams would want at least one point, but it also means that they lose a chance to gain that third point if the game goes to overtime. Say if you're tied with two minutes against a team in a different conference left but you're in a tight race with other teams for a playoff spot. Every point is going to count, and maybe missing out on a point ends up being the difference between making the playoffs or not. It provides motivation to go for the win in regulation.

 

[lumbergh]

Or just go to W-L and eliminate points entirely.

If that were in place right now, the Kings would not be in control of their own fate, having only 43 wins in 80 games. Vegas could win out, Dallas could win 2 of 3, and Nashville could win 1 of 3 and it wouldn't matter what the Kings do the last two games.

Thank the hockey gods for OTL points.

 

[BringTheReign]

Would the 2012 Kings have made the playoffs with the 3-2-1-0 point system? I remember the Kings teams of that era winning an awful lot of games in OT and shootouts.

 

[LAKings88]

Not saying it’s a wrap but if the Kings make the playoffs I’m getting a lot of Vancouver circa 2012 vibes. Don’t think many think they will get past the Oilers. Still think it will come down to Quick vs Smith. McDavid/Draisaitl are always scary too.

 

[Faterson]

I'm sure both teams would want at least one point, but it also means that they lose a chance to gain that third point if the game goes to overtime. Say if you're tied with two minutes against a team in a different conference left but you're in a tight race with other teams for a playoff spot. Every point is going to count, and maybe missing out on a point ends up being the difference between making the playoffs or not. It provides motivation to go for the win in regulation.

That's exactly it. It's useless to recalculate the current standings using the 3-point system, because the games would have been played differently – they would be more exciting.

There would be constant pressure to go for regulation win in every game, because once you get to overtime, it's already a partial loss, and good teams – as well as those who need to make up ground – can't afford to be losing points here and there.

The NHL is too cozy nowadays, using the current fake parity "loser point" system. Nowadays you get rewarded for getting to overtime, instead of penalized. No wonder teams then don't really care about regulation wins (although they've recently been made the first tiebreaker, but that's not enough).

 

[Schrute farms]

Without Drew, I have a hard time seeing the Kings going anywhere in the playoffs. It would be a huge accomplishment to make it considering the D side of things all year. I think they can be relatively competitive against the Oilers; but actually beating them in a series would be huge accomplishment. No knock on the young Dmen. But not having Drew makes a world of difference. I think it's 50/50, maybe better in Kings favor, with Drew.

 

[King'sPawn]

Or just go to W-L and eliminate points entirely.

I'd be fine with that.

 

[YP44]

Without Drew, I have a hard time seeing the Kings going anywhere in the playoffs. It would be a huge accomplishment to make it considering the D side of things all year. I think they can be relatively competitive against the Oilers; but actually beating them in a series would be huge accomplishment. No knock on the young Dmen. But not having Drew makes a world of difference. I think it's 50/50, maybe better in Kings favor, with Drew.

i agree, but the oilers maybe without nurse for a game two as well!

 

[Sybil227]

Not saying it’s a wrap but if the Kings make the playoffs I’m getting a lot of Vancouver circa 2012 vibes. Don’t think many think they will get past the Oilers. Still think it will come down to Quick vs Smith. McDavid/Draisaitl are always scary too.

I'm not getting any 2012 vibes. All people remember is that we were a #8 seed. They forget that coming into that season we were expected to be serious contenders. We had a great team on paper. Even in 2011 we were expected to make some noise - but Kopitar got injured & missed the playoffs. In 2012 we seriously under performed during the regular season. We were supposed to be really, really good. We jelled at the right time.
This year's team is nothing like that. Some real nice progression from some youngsters, guys we acquired fitting in nicely, and playing really well into our system. But we're honestly not that good yet. We might make it out of round 1. I wouldn't expect anything beyond that.

 

[LAKings88]

I'm not getting any 2012 vibes. All people remember is that we were a #8 seed. They forget that coming into that season we were expected to be serious contenders. We had a great team on paper. Even in 2011 we were expected to make some noise - but Kopitar got injured & missed the playoffs. In 2012 we seriously under performed during the regular season. We were supposed to be really, really good. We jelled at the right time.
This year's team is nothing like that. Some real nice progression from some youngsters, guys we acquired fitting in nicely, and playing really well into our system. But we're honestly not that good yet. We might make it out of round 1. I wouldn't expect anything beyond that.

In the sense that not many are gonna give LA much chance against the Oilers. Similar to how it was with Vancouver.

 

[Bandit]

I'm not sure why everyone is acting like this Kings aren't more than capable of losing two games in a row to end the year. I get it looks promising but I'm seeing a lot of premature evacuation.

 

[King'sPawn]

I'm not sure why everyone is acting like this Kings aren't more than capable of losing two games in a row to end the year. I get it looks promising but I'm seeing a lot of premature evacuation.

You're just a mindless hater and you have no qualifications to question Blake or McLellan.

"WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT!!!!1"

 

[TruKingFan]

I'm not sure why everyone is acting like this Kings aren't more than capable of losing two games in a row to end the year. I get it looks promising but I'm seeing a lot of premature evacuation.

Guess as much as it’s a given that Vegas will win all their 3 games remaining, right?

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

I'm not getting any 2012 vibes. All people remember is that we were a #8 seed. They forget that coming into that season we were expected to be serious contenders. We had a great team on paper. Even in 2011 we were expected to make some noise - but Kopitar got injured & missed the playoffs. In 2012 we seriously under performed during the regular season. We were supposed to be really, really good. We jelled at the right time.
This year's team is nothing like that. Some real nice progression from some youngsters, guys we acquired fitting in nicely, and playing really well into our system. But we're honestly not that good yet. We might make it out of round 1. I wouldn't expect anything beyond that.

Completely different circumstances, this team has one of the best 5v5 stats this season, you want that in the playoffs, you want that grind,

They can easily beat EDM if they come out like they have on other games,
They can easily get destroyed by EDM as well.....

There is no buzzsaw type confidence, but it's more of a playing with house money confidence that this team is evoking....

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

I'm not sure why everyone is acting like this Kings aren't more than capable of losing two games in a row to end the year. I get it looks promising but I'm seeing a lot of premature evacuation.

VGK also has to win out their three remaining games. This is the same team that just lost to SJ, at home, having a 2 goal lead with 3 minutes to go. Then you look at the Kings...who have won 4 in a row.

I kinda like our odds...

 

[KingsFan7824]

Or just go to W-L and eliminate points entirely.

Need some new values for goals then. Like in MLB, NFL, and NBA. So that games aren't always so close. Make a SH goal worth 1.25 goals or something.

The 76-77 Canadiens, 132 legit pts, a +216 goal differential, no OT at all, ended the year with more ties than losses.

I'm sure both teams would want at least one point, but it also means that they lose a chance to gain that third point if the game goes to overtime. Say if you're tied with two minutes against a team in a different conference left but you're in a tight race with other teams for a playoff spot. Every point is going to count, and maybe missing out on a point ends up being the difference between making the playoffs or not. It provides motivation to go for the win in regulation.

Eh. Every now and then a game might have some excitement to it. That's what we have now.

It's currently better to win in regulation. They finally made RW the first tiebreaker. It's always been better to win in regulation. Or better to win 5v5, whether in regulation or OT.

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

I wanna get a thread going of photos of everyone's playoff bracket predictions through the finals to see who is closest. Gotta pick the series score for each one. See who is closest. Any interest? Someone can create a file or we can upload our own. Any takers?

 

[LAKings88]

What just happened to my post?

 

[Bandit]

Guess as much as it’s a given that Vegas will win all their 3 games remaining, right?

I'm not saying that anything is a given either way, just that anyone that's followed hockey for any amount of time should know that anything can happen, and probably will.