Playoffs: Don't Tell Me The Odds

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The RW thing is going to eventually cause a team to pull its goalie in a tie game late in the year.

I still think every game should be a 3 point game.

3 RW
2 OT/SO W
1 OT/SO L
0 RL

To many NHL games now where it’s tied and the final 5 minutes is like watching Floyd Mayweather box himself.
Absolutely 100% yes.

Makes ZERO sense to have some games in the regular season give more points than others. Especially since playoff hockey all games have equal weight.
 
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Absolutely 100% yes.

Makes ZERO sense to have some games in the regular season give more points than others. Especially since playoff hockey all games have equal weight.
You could easily end up with the play-off race over for multiple teams with 10+ games to go with a 3 pt system. I‘ve experienced it back in something like 1999 (too lazy to check) and it was done away with after one season because things were decided so early leaving a lot of dead games that people did not attend.
 
They've rolled over 4-1 and 3-1 for them this season and that's when the games mattered, I'll bet they don't even score a goal tomorrow


I hope Timo is getting thar energy from Tesla solar panels.
I originally was going to correct the above sentence but i left it in the hope that someone reads my post like a pirate.
 
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It definitely would.



You'd go down 1 point for a win, too, if you fail to win in regulation. The games would be much more exciting.

I don't see why. The good teams will be good, regardless of the pt system. The average teams won't want to give up any pts. The bad teams will still suck. Since there are more average type teams than any other kind, the same thing will happen that always happens. They've already dumbed down 3v3 OT as much as they could. It's possession, possession, possession, until a shot that goes wide creates some chaos.

Get the equivalent of a 3 run home run in hockey. A 3pt shot in the NBA. Make a rule that you can't touch the 1C on the other team like you can't touch a QB in the NFL.

If anything go 4v4 for 60min. A 3-2-1-0 standings system doesn't change the game enough. Too many average teams who will try to keep the score close as long as they can.

That's another thing that could be done. Guarantee a coach doesn't get fired for team results. If a coach's job isn't dependent on untrustworthy players, he might just let them play however they want. Forget systems. Forget video.

Or, get rid of coaches. Players are grown men. Professionals. They don't need a supervisor.
 
The RW thing is going to eventually cause a team to pull its goalie in a tie game late in the year.

I still think every game should be a 3 point game.

3 RW
2 OT/SO W
1 OT/SO L
0 RL

To many NHL games now where it’s tied and the final 5 minutes is like watching Floyd Mayweather box himself.
While I don't know that a different point system will change the game in any fundamental way, I would prefer Herby's 3 point game just for fairness. Since the NHL instituted the current system, I've always been bothered by the fact that OT games are worth more in points than regulation games. Each game should be worth the same number of points. The other thing it fixes is that a so-called 0.500 team (Columbus Blue Jackets at 36-36-7) has, in reality, more losses (43) than wins (36).

Just out of curiosity, I scored the current season using Herby's system, and indeed the standings are pretty much in the same order. Towards the bottom of the standings there are some flip flops due to the point system. One key difference is that Vegas and Dallas would be currently tied in points with 123 instead of Vegas being 3 points back at the moment. The Kings would be in the same position with 130 points.

1650901494146.png
 
While I don't know that a different point system will change the game in any fundamental way, I would prefer Herby's 3 point game just for fairness. Since the NHL instituted the current system, I've always been bothered by the fact that OT games are worth more in points than regulation games. Each game should be worth the same number of points. The other thing it fixes is that a so-called 0.500 team (Columbus Blue Jackets at 36-36-7) has, in reality, more losses (43) than wins (36).

Just out of curiosity, I scored the current season using Herby's system, and indeed the standings are pretty much in the same order. Towards the bottom of the standings there are some flip flops due to the point system. One key difference is that Vegas and Dallas would be currently tied in points with 123 instead of Vegas being 3 points back at the moment. The Kings would be in the same position with 130 points.

View attachment 535445

I remember seeing this exercise for other seasons as well and agreed it rarely changes anything at all, never mind anything significant.

Now it's a little chicken-and-egg as changing the values might change approaches to the game too, but it just seems like change for the sake of change otherwise
 
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I remember seeing this exercise for other seasons as well and agreed it rarely changes anything at all, never mind anything significant.

Now it's a little chicken-and-egg as changing the values might change approaches to the game too, but it just seems like change for the sake of change otherwise
To me the change is worth it just from the fairness point of view, but the the real difference is it removes an incentive to just make it to overtime. As Herby pointed out, when a game is tied with a couple minutes left, you see some games just slow down, as both teams are content to just get at least one point. This is especially prevalent in inter-conference games, as there's absolutely no incentive to play for a win but risk losing at the end of the game.
 
You could easily end up with the play-off race over for multiple teams with 10+ games to go with a 3 pt system. I‘ve experienced it back in something like 1999 (too lazy to check) and it was done away with after one season because things were decided so early leaving a lot of dead games that people did not attend.
So, because it happened once in 23 years, it's less valid than a system where all games have equal value, and we need to manufacture additional drama?

What if it was flat 2 points for a win, regardless of how it was done, and 0 points for a loss, regardless of overtime or not?
 
The Pacific Division playoff race in three graphs (from Sports Club Stats):

As of mid-February, the Vegas Golden Knights held a ~90% chance of making the playoffs, only to drop to 9% as of now:
1650902613693.png


The biggest rise has been the Edmonton Oilers, jumping from ~30% to 100% in the space of 6 weeks:
1650902706923.png


The Kings have benefitted most from Vegas stalling out by a steady rise from 30% to 99% since mid February:
1650902801973.png


It's not all settled yet, but I think it's fair to say that Vegas choked this season.
 
The format that makes the most sense to me with the "games should be worth the same" argument is that wins are 3 points, overtime and shootout wins are worth 2 points, overtime and shootout losses are worth 1 point, and regulation losses are worth 0 points.

In that scenario, the Kings would have 122 points. Here's how the West shakes out:

1. Colorado, 153 points
2. Calgary, 148 points
2. St. Louis, 148 points
4. Minnesota, 135 points
5. Edmonton, 127 points
6. Nashville, 123 points
7. Los Angeles, 122 points
8. Dallas, 115 points
8. Vegas, 115 points
10. Vancouver, 112 points
 
That point the Sharks gave us could be the difference maker since Vegas if tied in any of their remaining games would have to pull the goalie. Still, it would help if St. Louis had home ice to play for in the last game of the season against Vegas. Unfortunately it isn't likely since the Wild play the 'Yotes and then Calgary and Colorado who appear to willingly coast on in to the finish line. Kings simply have to get a point against Seattle.
 
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That point the Sharks gave us could be the difference maker since Vegas if tied in any of their remaining games would have to pull the goalie. Still, it would help if St. Louis had home ice to play for in the last game of the season against Vegas. Unfortunately it isn't likely since the Wild play the 'Yotes and then Calgary and Colorado who appear to willingly coast on in to the finish line. Kings simply have to get a point against Seattle.
DAL has got a LOT to play for tomorrow -- they need to keep VGK away from possibly stealing their wild-card spot. I think tomorrow's game is the best chance of VGK to lose out of the remaining 3.
 

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