Confirmed Signing with Link: [MIN] Kirill Kaprizov re-signs with the Wild (5 years, $9M AAV)

[Dr Jan Itor]

You have just over half seasons worth of it. Where he scored at a ~75pt pace and had a pretty meh playoffs. He’s already overpaid by about ~$1.5M at his current production so you’d better hope he doesn’t come down at all.

Gusev (who isn’t as good obviously) also had about 60 games of experience in the NHL his first year and scored at a ~55pt pace. He was bought out after putting up 5pts for NJ the next year…


If you can’t recognize the massive risk giving a guy with 55 games over one season THAT kind of money then I don’t know what to tell you.

No, I recognize that there is risk. I just think it's worth it, and under the extremely weird circumstances, it had to play out this way.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

marner was signed before covid when the league was predicting huge pay increases after the new television deal was signed. When the NBA got their tv deal players who would normally make like 15mil suddenly started making 30. The NHL wasn't expecting a jump quite like that but 10mil was still expected to be comparably less than it is now

Funny… Marner got paid more based on those projections…. But not Aho and Rantanen. Strange.

 

[Al Lagoon]

The Wild locked up a good/great player for the best years of his career. That is a refreshing change from where the money usually goes with this franchise.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Okay well I don't see how you're disputing my point by pointing out his shooting percentage last season was an extreme outlier above several star players' careers.

Again. If the argument is that kaprizov is a top 3, or better, shooter in the entire NHL then I will take the field on that bet.

Every time someone shoots 17-20% once or twice a bunch of people ignore the entire history of the standard disruption of shots in the NHL and say THIS guy is different.

Someone has to be the best ever. I'm just not going to crown every single guy that has a strong 55 game sample size.

You act like those guys played a blip in the KHL, they all spent 4+ seasons there, enough for randomness to start to shake out.

He hasn't done it once or twice. He's done it 5 years in a row. 4 in the KHL, 1 in the NHL.

If he was an extreme outlier over a long period of time in the KHL, a league in which other NHL stars like Panarin, Tarasenko, Radulov, and Kovalchuck (all high end scorers in the NHL) couldn't replicate what he did, it stands to reason he's likely just a high end shooter.

There is no evidence this is a one off besides "Well Karlsson shot 20% once". There is 5 years evidence that he is a high end shooter.

 

[Bevans]

You act like those guys played a blip in the KHL, they all spent 4+ seasons there, enough for randomness to start to shake out.

He hasn't done it once or twice. He's done it 5 years in a row. 4 in the KHL, 1 in the NHL.

If he was an extreme outlier over a long period of time in the KHL, a league in which other NHL stars like Panarin, Tarasenko, Radulov, and Kovalchuck (all high end scorers in the NHL) couldn't replicate what he did, it stands to reason he's likely just a high end shooter.

There is no evidence this is a one off besides "Well Karlsson shot 20% once". There is 5 years evidence that he is a high end shooter.

I really have nothing to say to any of this.

If he maintains his current shooting percentage he will be a top 3 or higher current career shooter in the NHL.

I think, on a balance of probabilities, that this is unlike.

Is it possible? Yes. Should you be upset by the possibility that it does not occur? No.

Good talk.

 

[P10p]

A goal scorer scored more goals than a playmaker *shockedpikachuface*

Auston Matthews winger had more assists than Victor Rask winger *shockedpikachuface*

 

[Dough72]

Signing Marner and assuming the cap will go up: reasonable
Signing Kaprizov and assuming his level of play will stay the same: unreasonable

it's a bit different, the salary rise was a virtual certainty before a global event happened that has nothing to do with hockey. I'm not even against the signing I just think there are logical reasons to be.

 

[Bonin21]

Maker player two seasons for a combined 101 regular season games

Makar got 6 years/9m

So KK would have the record for 100 games and fewer at time of signing.

 

[Idlerlee]

That could be 40 goals and 20 assists.

Or 60 goals and 0 assists since he scores all the goals. The poster you replied to is so pessimistic

 

[ThatGuy22]

I really have nothing to say to any of this.

If he maintains his current shooting percentage he will be a top 3 or higher current career shooter in the NHL.

I think, on a balance of probabilities, that this is unlike.

Is it possible? Yes. Should you be upset by the possibility that it does not occur? No.

Good talk.

You have nothing to say, because you're willing to discount everything done in the KHL despite the evidence it tends to translate to the NHL.

You're willing to take one fact, that NHL forwards on average tend to shoot around 11% long term, and discount three facts Kaprizov has shown he's a high percentage shooter for half a decade, individual players can be high percentage NHL shooters long term despite the league average and KHL shooting percentages tend to translate well to the NHL.

At the end of the day, it's best to compare to what a player's shown he's capable of before to figure out what they'll do in the future. 10% shooter turning into a 20% shooter over night, not likely going to last. You're comparing him to the balance of NHL players, most of whom aren't high end shooters.

But there are, and have always existed, high end shooters that consistently shot near 20%. Alex Tanguay career 18.6%, Andrew Brunette, career 18%, Mark Parrish career 17%, Stamkos 17%, Marchand, 16%, Scheifele 16%.

Kaprizov going 18%, 20%, 19%, 17% in subsequent seasons indicates it's likely he's one of them. Whether long term throughout his career that settles at 15% or 18%, we won't know for a while.

Good talk.

 

[Peasy]

Auston Matthews winger had more assists than Victor Rask winger *shockedpikachuface*

The dude still had a better A1/60 in his rookie season than Kaprizov had this past season and he spent that season with Bozak and sometimes the fourth line. But yeah keep trying to act like Kaprizov is somehow a better playmaker lol.

 

[Bevans]

You have nothing to say, because you're willing to discount everything done in the KHL despite the evidence it tends to translate to the NHL.

You're willing to take one fact, that NHL forwards on average tend to shoot around 11% long term, and discount three facts Kaprizov has shown he's a high percentage shooter for half a decade, individual players can be high percentage NHL shooters long term despite the league average and KHL shooting percentages tend to translate well to the NHL.

At the end of the day, it's best to compare to what a player's shown he's capable of before to figure out what they'll do in the future. 10% shooter turning into a 20% shooter over night, not likely going to last. You're comparing him to the balance of NHL players, most of whom aren't high end shooters.

But there are, and have always existed, high end shooters that consistently shot near 20%. Alex Tanguay career 18.6%, Andrew Brunette, career 18%, Mark Parrish career 17%, Stamkos 17%, Marchand, 16%, Scheifele 16%.

Kaprizov going 18%, 20%, 19%, 17% in subsequent seasons indicates it's likely he's one of them. Whether long term throughout his career that settles at 15% or 18%, we won't know for a while.

Good talk.

A lot of talk about nothing. But if it floats your boat have at it.

 

[thethirdhockeyman91]

watch Kaprizov become Gusev 2.0. lol

 

[GuerinUp]

No I wouldn't.

whens the last time your team was relevant?

 

[ottawa]

If jfresh likes him, you know he's bad.

Stats don't lie.

 

[Kshahdoo]

watch Kaprizov become Gusev 2.0. lol

Or Gusev got back to 60 point player on Toronto...

 

[Oddbob]

whens the last time your team was relevant?

Nice comment! When was Minnesota ever relevant, if that is the route you want to travel? Even with 6 bad years, Detroit still has 2 Cups and lots of competitive playoffs during the Wild's existence.

 

[GuerinUp]

Nice comment! When was Minnesota ever relevant, if that is the route you want to travel? Even with 6 bad years, Detroit still has 2 Cups and lots of competitive playoffs during the Wild's existence.

And how did you win those cups? Elite Russian talent. That what i might add, had a pretty lucrative contract at the time.

What have you done lately?

 

[Just Linda]

Stats don't lie.

Stats don't, interpretations are often misleading. I'm not so big on JFresh, he's done well to market his system but it generally favours weak competition (especially for bottom pairing d).

 

[ottawa]

Stats don't, interpretations are often misleading. I'm not so big on JFresh, he's done well to market his system but it generally favours weak competition (especially for bottom pairing d).

You think the other teams are sending out their bottom pairing D or bottom 6 against Kaprizov?

 

[Ugene Magic]

How much does he get paid per year? Multiply with the amount of years. Simple mr

You can stop winking at me, you never addressed the 55 games and his point. you go for the obvious "everyone" already knew, and you wink like you made this big revelation.

Do I need to wink here? Or do you got it?

This isn't "Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader/basic math."

Kirill, earned that much off a 55 game sample size as a rookie. Now he should live up to that, Maybe. But if he plateaus out at a 25/25 for 50 or 30/30 for a 60 point player or even a regular 70+ 9.0 per seems like a hefty price tag. Remember, the league got to see him for the first time, but not really, he only played his division. Now consider he'll have to do most of the trench work himself and teams will key in on him now that he's put front and center in Minnesota in a full 82 season Kirill has never done in his career. There's a lot to be excited about him, but he also comes with some concern. At least the Wild fans have someone worth wild to come to the games for and be excited about.

Let's see if he lives up to that 9.0 per/45.0.

 

[Name Nameless]

So, if he gets an NMC in the last two years, he is traded at draft-day in 2024? Unless he is traded earlier, given Minnesotas cap-issues. But they will at least have him this year. Zuccarello is traded after this season, so it's this season to see those two again.

 

[Sky04]

These overpaid early deals aren't bad when the team isn't struggling to fit multiple high cap players in.

 

[Guttersniped]

So KK would have the record for 100 games and fewer at time of signing.

Obviously. Someone mentioned Eichel, who signed in 2017 after two seasons but didn’t remember Makar has only played two COVID/injury shortened seasons, while wondering about dudes who signed huge deals after small number of game played. He burned a year when played in the playoffs.

Colorado didn’t rush Makar, it was the opposite, he 20 years, 5 months old when he played in those playoffs.

Eichel signed his 8 year/10m deal after 141 regular seasons games

Makar signed his 6 year/9m after 136 (101 regular season games and 35 playoff games).

Now before people yell at me, Makar’s deal is very reasonable for this market. He signed in July 24, that says good vibes all around. Everybody’s happy. Hurrah!

Eichel’s deal would be great too if 1) the pandemic didn’t freeze the cap, even with the pre-existing escrow mess things like Seattle would juice the cap (in 2018-19 the cap went to 79.5m, from 75m in previous year, after Vegas’ 1st season). 2) there’s some injury issues but I’ll let that third rail alone.

Who cares about the games played, he’s already matured into a incredible offensive talent. You don’t really need that much proof. It would it would be nice if it was down to 8m, especially when Svechnikov signed an 8 year deal for 7.75m, but such is life. He’s still very much worth giving a 5 year deal to.

 

[GuerinUp]

Im thoroughly convinced most of these critics of this contract have either never watched or barely watched Kap play. Cant wait for him to win a hart and shut up all the naysayers. Guys a STUD, and get used to seeing his name. This team could be a serious contender if boldy and rossi hit the ground running.