Confirmed Signing with Link: [MIN] Kirill Kaprizov re-signs with the Wild (5 years, $9M AAV)

[TGWL]

Awesome!

 

[shortfuze]

Nah man.
Guerin is their GM, not Dubas.

so guerin makes mistakes to.

 

[BKarchitect]

The comparisons in this thread are just laughable. It’s a big chunk of change, like any mega deal it’s not without risk.

I also have eyeballs. Kaprizov completely changed the dynamic of the entire Wild offense. There are risky bets and then there are bold, necessary steps to take to lock down transformative players. This is the latter, without question. It’s not cheap but it’s the only move and it will be well worth it for a franchise that has been waiting for their spiritual successor to Gaborik for over a decade.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Maybe his production should skyrocket to Marner's level first....

He's already surpassed Marner's career high in goals in a season, in just 55 games vs 82 for Marner

 

[GuerinUp]

Ok, so he's signed.. but where is the center that we STILL NEED!!???? We're returning basically the same team as last year. How am I supposed to be excited about this?

His name is Marco. And he has come to save us all

 

[GuerinUp]

Come on guys... Let's be realistic he isn't sniffing those numbers. He shot at 17% for 55 games. Of those 55 games, 32 of them were against Anaheim, SJ, Arizona, and LA.

This is a terrible deal that is going to backfire hard.

hes shot that percentage for years.... but good attempt at trying to downplay his skill

 

[Bevans]

The thing is even if he falls to say 13%, which would be low for a player of his calibre, he's still a 30 goal scorer with his shot volume over 82 games. That's in addition to being someone who drives the play and creates chances at a pretty high level. His floor is higher than you are suggesting, that's all.

I have suggested nothing other than that he will fall within a normal distribution of thousands of NHL players. You have implied that it is reasonable to assume he will have the highest career shooting percentage In the nhl.

If you think suggesting a player will regress to the mean is suggesting a low floor, then I don't think you've understood the point.

For the record, if by "fall to 13%" you mean just shoot 13% this year. Then you're still putting him top 20 in the NHL for career.

If by career average 13%, then you're suggested he will shoot approx 9% this year.

 

[Dough72]

This thread is hilarious. Clueless old men yelling at the cloud because in their day "you had to earn it damn it". Cue Dire Straits - Money for Nothing.

lol what on earth are you blathering about. You really can't see the logic that 1 season of production is a less reliable barometer than multiple seasons of production? It's the type of logic even a kindergarten student should be able to figure out, next time try thinking logically before turning people who disagree with you into mindless stereotypes. Especially when the "old man yelling at clouds" thing was invented by the people you are using it on. And that stereotype was already dumb back then imagine how dumb it is now.

 

[Nate070]

But your math is incorrect in the form of where the posters point came across. Making yours "pointless" no matter how correct your math is.

How much does he get paid per year? Multiply with the amount of years. Simple mr

 

[SoundAndFury]

lol what on earth are you blathering about. You really can't see the logic that 1 season of production is a less reliable barometer than multiple seasons of production? It's the type of logic even a kindergarten student should be able to figure out, next time try thinking logically before turning people who disagree with you into mindless stereotypes. Especially when the "old man yelling at clouds" thing was invented by the people you are using it on. And that stereotype was already dumb back then imagine how dumb it is now.

Nobody is discussing what's a more or less reliable barometer as it is obvious even to "kindergarten student". The discussion was about what the market dictates in this situation and what Minnesota's options were. You want to talk about logic so much yet you can't even follow the logic of the conversation.

 

[MuckOG]

lol what on earth are you blathering about. You really can't see the logic that 1 season of production is a less reliable barometer than multiple seasons of production? It's the type of logic even a kindergarten student should be able to figure out, next time try thinking logically before turning people who disagree with you into mindless stereotypes. Especially when the "old man yelling at clouds" thing was invented by the people you are using it on. And that stereotype was already dumb back then imagine how dumb it is now.

Why is it that so many want to simply discount what he did in the KHL prior to coming over? He is was quickest player to score 100 KHL goals at 22 years old...the previous record was held by a 25 year old player. He put up 3 of the top 10 best scoring seasons for U23 players (including the top 2). That's more than Panarin and Tarasenko. There literally was no adjustment period for him when he came over to the NHL. In his first game his put up 3 points and scored the GWG in OT and hasn't looked back since.

Sure, the KHL is not the NHL, I get that. But it does help paint the full picture of what type of player he is and has been.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

He clearly took a hometown discount.

 

[Dough72]

Marner hasn't scored a playoff goal in 2 years and y'all bitching Kaprizov is overpaid

marner was signed before covid when the league was predicting huge pay increases after the new television deal was signed. When the NBA got their tv deal players who would normally make like 15mil suddenly started making 30. The NHL wasn't expecting a jump quite like that but 10mil was still expected to be comparably less than it is now

 

[nbwingsfan]

Are you seriously comparing Kaprizov to Gusev?

You said Minnesota was judging what Kaprizov did outside of the NHL to justify this contract.

I’m saying that’s a terrible idea because you have no idea how someone will translate. Gusev was just as, if not more successful in the KHL and internationally and it blew up in NJ face.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

You said Minnesota was judging what Kaprizov did outside of the NHL to justify this contract.

I’m saying that’s a terrible idea because you have no idea how someone will translate. Gusev was just as, if not more successful in the KHL and internationally and it blew up in NJ face.

Ok, but then last year happened so now we have a fairly good idea how it will translate, or how it did translate.

 

[MuckOG]

You said Minnesota was judging what Kaprizov did outside of the NHL to justify this contract.

I’m saying that’s a terrible idea because you have no idea how someone will translate. Gusev was just as, if not more successful in the KHL and internationally and it blew up in NJ face.

You need to look at their relative ages when they played in the KHL. Gusev's best years were at over 23 years old. Kaprizov holds the records for the best U23 seasons.

Better to compare Kaprizov to Panarin than Gusev.

 

[Peasy]

He's already surpassed Marner's career high in goals in a season, in just 55 games vs 82 for Marner

A goal scorer scored more goals than a playmaker *shockedpikachuface*

 

[nbwingsfan]

Ok, but then last year happened so now we have a fairly good idea how it will translate, or how it did translate.

You have just over half seasons worth of it. Where he scored at a ~75pt pace and had a pretty meh playoffs. He’s already overpaid by about ~$1.5M at his current production so you’d better hope he doesn’t come down at all.

Gusev (who isn’t as good obviously) also had about 60 games of experience in the NHL his first year and scored at a ~55pt pace. He was bought out after putting up 5pts for NJ the next year…


If you can’t recognize the massive risk giving a guy with 55 games over one season THAT kind of money then I don’t know what to tell you.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Comparing statistical outliers to stastical outliers isn't a very useful exercise. Point and Draisaitl are the only players in the NHL with a career shooting percentage (with at least 800 shots) over 17%. 20th among active players is 13.97%.

Maybe Kaprizov will have the highest career shooting percentage in the NHL. Personally, I'd bet on regression before that.

There is not much evidence for a drop off in shooting percentage from KHL to NHL among players crossing over. Kaprizov was a career 15% shooter in the KHL, and shot at 19% over his last three seasons there.

Other notables that made the trek didn't have a drop off.

Kaprizov 15.7% KHL, 17% NHL
Panarin 12.4 % KHL, 14.6% NHL
Tarasenko 12.4% KHL, 12.6 % NHL
Kuznetzov 9.2% KHL, 11.2 % NHL
Kovalachuk 11.8% KHL, 13.7% NHL
Radulov 13.9 % KHL, 13.6% NHL

The real comparables(Panarin, Tarasenko, Kuznetzov), the guys that developed in the KHL, playing 200 or so games actually see their shooting percentages increase once they come to the NHL. That's probably because their career KHL numbers take in their 18 and 19 year old seasons. Which is why Kaprizov's 19% he had over his last three seasons while winning goal titles kind pops out.

I think it's more likely than not he's an extremely high percentage shooter, given he's been an extremely high percentage shooter for many years in a row across multiple leagues.

 

[Sota Popinski]

marner was signed before covid when the league was predicting huge pay increases after the new television deal was signed. When the NBA got their tv deal players who would normally make like 15mil suddenly started making 30. The NHL wasn't expecting a jump quite like that but 10mil was still expected to be comparably less than it is now

Signing Marner and assuming the cap will go up: reasonable
Signing Kaprizov and assuming his level of play will stay the same: unreasonable

 

[Sota Popinski]

A goal scorer scored more goals than a playmaker *shockedpikachuface*

You can't pass the puck into the net. But if you want to pretend Kaprizov isn't a playmaker, please explain how he was in the 93rd percentile for primary assists.

 

[CupInSIX]

This is definitely a Dubas style contract, but Kaprizov unexpectedly had even more leverage than Marner & Matthews.

Cap comes at you fast sometimes.

 

[Peasy]

You can't pass the puck into the net. But if you want to pretend Kaprizov isn't a playmaker, please explain how he was in the 93rd percentile for primary assists.

Yes, I definitely said Kaprizov has no playmaking ability. Exactly.

 

[DeysArena]

Is this the most money that a second-year player has ever gotten?

 

[Bevans]

There is not much evidence for a drop off in shooting percentage from KHL to NHL among players crossing over. Kaprizov was a career 15% shooter in the KHL, and shot at 19% over his last three seasons there.

Other notables that made the trek didn't have a drop off.

Kaprizov 15.7% KHL, 17% NHL
Panarin 12.4 % KHL, 14.6% NHL
Tarasenko 12.4% KHL, 12.6 % NHL
Kuznetzov 9.2% KHL, 11.2 % NHL
Kovalachuk 11.8% KHL, 13.7% NHL
Radulov 13.9 % KHL, 13.6% NHL

The real comparables(Panarin, Tarasenko, Kuznetzov), the guys that developed in the KHL, playing 200 or so games actually see their shooting percentages increase once they come to the NHL. That's probably because their career KHL numbers take in their 18 and 19 year old seasons. Which is why Kaprizov's 19% he had over his last three seasons while winning goal titles kind pops out.

I think it's more likely than not he's an extremely high percentage shooter, given he's been an extremely high percentage shooter for many years in a row across multiple leagues.

Okay well I don't see how you're disputing my point by pointing out his shooting percentage last season was an extreme outlier above several star players' careers.

Again. If the argument is that kaprizov is a top 3, or better, shooter in the entire NHL then I will take the field on that bet.

Every time someone shoots 17-20% once or twice a bunch of people ignore the entire history of the standard disruption of shots in the NHL and say THIS guy is different.

Someone has to be the best ever. I'm just not going to crown every single guy that has a strong 55 game sample size.