Proposal: Miller to TOR (again)

[JanBulisPiggyBack]

Aha. So Miller is worth much more than Eichel.

Makes sense.

Not disagreeing with you but
5 million or 2.5 at %50 retains >>>>> $10 million and injury concern

 

[Cogburn]

PPG is undeniably a more accurate measure when every team has not played the same number of games.

Perhaps, but no award is given for "Best PPG" at the end of each year. Art Ross and Richard trophies are awarded for total points and goals, regardless of games played. If one were, my guess is it would be often won by a call up, NCAA or KHL import that shows up and scores a goal and two assists in 2 games. There's a reason that totals are used for measurements here. PPG is much more easily skewed to embellish a hot streak or good game.

Miller, meanwhile, is 15th in points scored since joining the Canucks, and is within 3 points of a top ten spot, and is 10th this season, beating out a number of guys you've listed on both counts (Ovechkin, Rantanen, Barkov, Crosby, Kucherov and a point behind Aho for the last three years, and Panarin, Aho, Barkov, Kane, Crosby, Marchand, Kane and Marner this year). So that "top ten" you seem to have taken offense too isn't really misplaced.

 

[thusk]

No body debate about how good is miller but about his value for a year and half...

2 top 30 prospect in the NhL
A 1ST round pick
A 2nd pick
A dman who look like a futur top 4 dman
A roster player

Stone resigned was trade for 1 top 30 prospect and a 2nd

Pacioretty resigned long terme for a top 30 prospect , a 2nd pick and a 4.8M cap dump.

So yes miller can came with a cheaper price but paid 3X price of those player im not sure

 

[Cogburn]

No body debate about how good is miller but about his value for a year and half...

2 top 30 prospect in the NhL
A 1ST round pick
A 2nd pick
A dman who look like a futur top 4 dman
A roster player

Stone resigned was trade for 1 top 30 prospect and a 2nd

Pacioretty resigned long terme for a top 30 prospect , a 2nd pick and a 4.8M cap dump.

So yes miller can came with a cheaper price but paid 3X price of those player im not sure

Muzzin, arguably, got more then either of Stone, or Pacioretty. Hell, Tatar, Zucker, Kapanen, Mantha, Pageau, O'Reilly or Duchene all got more than Pacioretty or Stone (although in fairness to Stone, calling Branstrom, one of two assets with Lindberg, a "top 30" prospect is incredibly dishonest and disingenuous to how he was viewed at the time: https://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/15720209999 ).

Hall got three prospects, a first and a possible second, and Miller is outperforming Hall over the same amount of time with New Jersey.

Cherry picking two trades doesn't devalue all the other trades in recent history.

 

[cneely]

Perhaps, but no award is given for "Best PPG" at the end of each year. Art Ross and Richard trophies are awarded for total points and goals, regardless of games played. If one were, my guess is it would be often won by a call up, NCAA or KHL import that shows up and scores a goal and two assists in 2 games. There's a reason that totals are used for measurements here. PPG is much more easily skewed to embellish a hot streak or good game.

The Art Ross and Richard are not awarded to a player who has the 10th highest points either.

PPG certainly can be skewed, but aside from one obvious answer in Ellis, which of the other 27 players ahead of him on this year's PPG list are anomalies:
NHL Stats

Miller, meanwhile, is 15th in points scored since joining the Canucks, and is within 3 points of a top ten spot, and is 10th this season, beating out a number of guys you've listed on both counts (Ovechkin, Rantanen, Barkov, Crosby, Kucherov and a point behind Aho for the last three years, and Panarin, Aho, Barkov, Kane, Crosby, Marchand, Kane and Marner this year). So that "top ten" you seem to have taken offense too isn't really misplaced.

So is it your position that Miller is a better scoring forward than Ovi, Rantanan, Barkov, Crosby, Kucherov, etc...

In fact, with 57 points to Kucherov's 22, it would seem apparent that in your opinion he's 200% better than Kuch at scoring, yes?

I am not slagging Miller. He's really good. He is not "a top 10 scoring forward in the NHL" despite the fact that he is, for the moment, exactly 10th.

 

[seanlinden]

Canucks fan here.
Obviously Jt. Miller wont return the equivalent of four first round picks lol.

He's a real good player. Not only does he produce points but he's got grit, he hits, great at taking face-offs and can play any forward position.

I think the realistic expectation is a first round pick and a A-chip prospect. like a top 15 pick player who's been progressing as expected..
Then layer in the fact that you get Jt Miller at a very reasonable price for a SECOND year as well..and i think you have to add a B-Tier prospect or a youngish NHL player (tweener - 23-25 yrs old) etc.

Here's the thing, the Canucks are not going to get two years worth of a top line forward deadline trade. (2 1st, 2 tier 'A" tier prospects) The marginal return on the second year of his contract is traded now is like i described above, going to be a lesser add, (b tier prospect etc). So, it doesnt really make sense for them to trade him now. They should just flip him at NEXT years dead line and still score the 1st and tier A player (assuming he keeps playing well). The extra add for the 2nd year isn't worth it.

Now, if a team steps up and does offer a package that reflects TWO years worth of a top line player trade-deadline return..then it makes sense for Van.

There's a challenge with that approach -- JT Miller (or really, any add), generally only appeals to good teams. Not too many good teams have recent top 15 picks that aren't already integral pieces for them.

Heck, let's take the 2020 entry draft for example, looking at picks 6 to 20. The teams that have those players are:

Anaheim - Drysdale
New Jersey - Holtz, Mercer, and Mikhamadullin
Buffalo - Quinn
Minnesota - Rossi
Winnipeg - Perfetti
Nashville - Askarov
Florida- Lundell
Carolina - Jarvis
Edmonton - Hollaway
Toronto - Amirov
Montreal - Gugle
Chicago - Reichel
Rangers - Schnieder

Of those teams, only Minnesota, Nashville, Florida, Carolina, Edmonton, Toronto and the Rangers sit in a playoff spot today.

Then you eliminate guys that are "too important" / "too good" to trade which eliminates Minnesota, Florida, Carolina and the Rangers.

That leaves Dylan Hollaway in Edmonton, and Rodion Amirov in Toronto... and of course Amirov is out with his health status.

Top 15 picks who've been "progressing as expected" generally don't get traded, because they tend to become NHL players much sooner than guys drafted later on.

 

[thusk]

Schenn is better than Justin freaking Holl

One of those 2 player played against top line last 2 season in one of best defensive team in NhL and the second one just fighting to stay in the NHL....


Yep for sure...

 

[Cogburn]

The Art Ross and Richard are not awarded to a player who has the 10th highest points either.

PPG certainly can be skewed, but aside from one obvious answer in Ellis, which of the other 27 players ahead of him on this year's PPG list are anomalies:
NHL Stats



So is it your position that Miller is a better scoring forward than Ovi, Rantanan, Barkov, Crosby, Kucherov, etc...

In fact, with 57 points to Kucherov's 22, it would seem apparent that in your opinion he's 200% better than Kuch at scoring, yes?

I am not slagging Miller. He's really good. He is not "a top 10 scoring forward in the NHL" despite the fact that he is, for the moment, exactly 10th.

No, tenth doesn't get an award, what kind of strawman argument is that? The league doesn't reward the top PPG player, but have an award for the player with top total points and goals.

Presently? Yes. He is out scoring those players. That's an objective metric.

200%? That's loaded. Is Miller a better scorer then Kucherov? Yes, objectively. He has put up more points, bottom line. Over three years, Kucherov has played 83 games. Having an amazing ppg is fine, but playing a third of his teams games really negates that. Having 60ish games across three seasons of Miller, for 175 points total, is more impactful, or "better", than 30 or so games every year, for three years, for 107 points.

 

[cneely]

No, tenth doesn't get an award, what kind of strawman argument is that? The league doesn't reward the top PPG player, but have an award for the player with top total points and goals.

Strawman? You brought it up.

Presently? Yes. He is out scoring those players. That's an objective metric.

Presently, he has played more games than those players, thus he has scored more.

200%? That's loaded. Is Miller a better scorer then Kucherov? Yes, objectively. He has put up more points, bottom line.

I'm not asking who has more points. I am asking who is a better scoring forward in the NHL.

Over three years, Kucherov has played 83 games. Having an amazing ppg is fine, but playing a third of his teams games really negates that. Having 60ish games across three seasons of Miller, for 175 points total, is more impactful, or "better", than 30 or so games every year, for three years, for 107 points.

His durability is another factor that is most certainly important. The fact that he plays more games, however, does not make him a better scorer.

Look, you and I are getting hung up on semantics. If you were to say that Miller has more value because he's damn good and can stay healthy, that's a debatable argument. I'd probably not agree, but it's a valid argument. That's not what we're arguing.

 

[cneely]

If you're going to argue that Miller is a top 10 scoring forward in the NHL, then I guess Swayman is a top 5 goalie.

 

[dayner]

I'm still sticking with my proposal.

To Toronto
JT Miller at 50% for this year and next year (2.6M)
Schenn

To Vancouver
Liljegren
Niemela
2022 1st

 

[Nylanderthal]

The offer op made is definitely an overpayment but the evaluation that there’s 4 1sts in there is very flawed.

so my question to you is if the fact the liljegren was a 1st round pick 4 years ago makes him worth a 1st now, why is it the players drafted outside the 1st improve their value but players drafted in the 1st not hurt their value and no longer be worth a 1st?

would you trade a 1st for olli juolevi? After all he was a 5th ovr pick just 1 yr before liljegren was a mid 1st. The only explanation provided for the valuation was they are former 1st round picks after all.

your evaluations are way off base overall like Robertson being a top 15 pick in a redraft. He’d be lucky to crack even the top 25. He has a case for 25 onwards but as you mentioned due to his injury history likely would be an early 2nd rounder

Liljegren plays a top 6 borderline top 4 role on a top 5/6 team in the league, juolevi is waiver trash. Keep up.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Seeing as there’s no consensus on leafs prospects because they’re either small, injury riddled whatever excuses Canuck fans want to make up, what does a purely draft capital trade look like? 2x 1sts and a roster player for cap purposes?
Holl/Dermott + Engvall/Mikheyev + 2 1sts?
Miller 50% + Schenn

 

[Nylanderthal]

Who was the last rental+1 forward to be traded? Stone and Pacioretty were full season + extension so not really comparable.

Last big rental+1's I can think of were Muzzin and McDonagh.
Muzzin 1st + Grundstrom + Durzi (two recent 2nd's tracking well, B+/A- type prospects)
McDonagh 1st + Howden + Hajek + 2nd (conditional 1st) (an additional pick, Howden a straight A type, Hajek a B+/A-)

Miller should be somewhere between those prices. Leaf's Knies and Niemela don't have the draft pedigree of Howden and Hajek, but are performing a clear step above.

Coleman & goodrow both had an extra year of term when TB acquired them.
Coleman was a prospect in the realm of what the leafs have to offer (Foote) and a first is a first when you’re getting picks from teams at the deadline.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Schenn is better than Justin freaking Holl

No he isn’t.

 

[4thline]

@Nylanderthal

I had forgotten about Coleman. Pretty good base for a 50% retained Miller, but Miller is significantly more valuable. Supports the McDonagh territory valuation.

IMO Miller is a 4 asset player. No single asset worse than a playoff team 2nd rounder, no single asset better than a playoff team 1st rounder.

Gun to head for a "fair" Leaf Proposal

2022 1st + Knies/Niemela/Robertson + Steeves/Kral/Hirvonen/Kokkonen/Tverberg+ Conditional 2023 3nd (becomes lotto protected 2nd if Leafs make final 4 either season, 1st if they win the cup).

There are permutations of that trade I make as a Leafs fan, and some that I don't.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Nick Robertson
Timothy Liljegren
Topi Niemelä
1st round pick 2022
3rd round pick 2023

To TOR:
J.T. Miller
Luke Schenn

this is fine

This is not fine. Basically 1st + leafs top 2 prospects + young promising bottom 4D. Value probably in the 3 to 4 late 1st round range which is a brutal overpayment

 

[TheDoldrums]

I'm still sticking with my proposal.

To Toronto
JT Miller at 50% for this year and next year (2.6M)
Schenn

To Vancouver
Liljegren
Niemela
2022 1st

The Leafs would tell you where to stick that.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

The leafs are not 1 JT miller away from the cup. Already like 50% of the cap tied up in the top 6 is another player really needed there? Much rather stay put if these are the prices...

 

[Ciao]

I hope the Leafs don't trade Liljegren or a first-round pick.

I'm not all that taken with Miller, no matter what he's done in Vancouver. I would rather some other team pay the price for him.

 

[Nylanderthal]

@Nylanderthal

I had forgotten about Coleman. Pretty good base for a 50% retained Miller, but Miller is significantly more valuable. Supports the McDonagh territory valuation.

IMO Miller is a 4 asset player. No single asset worse than a playoff team 2nd rounder, no single asset better than a playoff team 1st rounder.

Gun to head for a "fair" Leaf Proposal

2022 1st + Knies/Niemela/Robertson + Steeves/Kral/Hirvonen/Kokkonen/Tverberg+ Conditional 2023 3nd (becomes lotto protected 2nd if Leafs make final 4 either season, 1st if they win the cup).

There are permutations of that trade I make as a Leafs fan, and some that I don't.

That’s reasonable and I’d probably do it, especially if a Schenn can be slid in as well. Any talk about 3 of Knies Niemela sandin Robertson liljegren plus is nonsense and Canuck fans need to take a step back

 

[Morgs]

@Nylanderthal

I had forgotten about Coleman. Pretty good base for a 50% retained Miller, but Miller is significantly more valuable. Supports the McDonagh territory valuation.

IMO Miller is a 4 asset player. No single asset worse than a playoff team 2nd rounder, no single asset better than a playoff team 1st rounder.

Gun to head for a "fair" Leaf Proposal

2022 1st + Knies/Niemela/Robertson + Steeves/Kral/Hirvonen/Kokkonen/Tverberg+ Conditional 2023 3nd (becomes lotto protected 2nd if Leafs make final 4 either season, 1st if they win the cup).

There are permutations of that trade I make as a Leafs fan, and some that I don't.

This is about as close as I'd consider "fair" value in this thread, but Friedman did say he believes the Leafs see Knies & Niemela as untouchable.

And before anyone else says it, Liljegren/Sandin will not be going anywhere.

 

[thusk]

Muzzin, arguably, got more then either of Stone, or Pacioretty. Hell, Tatar, Zucker, Kapanen, Mantha, Pageau, O'Reilly or Duchene all got more than Pacioretty or Stone (although in fairness to Stone, calling Branstrom, one of two assets with Lindberg, a "top 30" prospect is incredibly dishonest and disingenuous to how he was viewed at the time: https://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/15720209999 ).

Hall got three prospects, a first and a possible second, and Miller is outperforming Hall over the same amount of time with New Jersey.

Cherry picking two trades doesn't devalue all the other trades in recent history.

Muzzin and stone is pretty similar.

Tatar is worst than.pacioretty

And anyway that change nothing how many trade you see 2 top 30 prospect+ 1st late pick+ 2nd pick + a 22 regular dman close of being a top 4 + third line foward vs a player... seriously it look like of mcdavid value if he request a trade.

 

[Canadian Canuck]

One of those 2 player played against top line last 2 season in one of best defensive team in NhL and the second one just fighting to stay in the NHL....


Yep for sure...

Holl is literally a healthy scratch

 

[Price is Wright]

To VAN:
Nick Robertson
Timothy Liljegren
Pierre Engvall
Topi Niemelä
Ty Voit
1st round pick 2022
2nd round pick 2023

To TOR:
J.T. Miller
Luke Schenn

I would do this if I'm Toronto if Vancouver takes 50% on Miller and Schenn.