Couple of points to throw into this fire...
#1. I'd suspect the Leafs interest in Luke Schenn has evaporated after getting Ilya Lyubushkin. Very similar players, Lyubushkin probably gets the edge. If the Leafs are shopping for a defenceman, it's for somebody that is a legit top 4 / borderline top 2 kind of guy... not another depth defender. They have 5 of those (Holl, Dermott, Sandin, Liljegren, Lyubushkin).
#2. The Leafs do not trade both Liljegren & Niemla in the same deal. It is Niemla's emergence that likely gives the Leafs consideration to trading Liljegren. The Leafs are not going to trade the only 2 quality RHDs in the system.This is especially true with the Leafs likely eyeing Sandin for a top 4 spot, thereby opening up a really ideal spot for a Liljegren/Niemla on the 3rd pair.
#3. The comparisons to Eichel -- really need to stop. Yes, you can argue that Miller is a "better value" than Eichel, especially with the injuries, but one needs to understand the mindset that a GM is going to take in trading for Miller, versus trading for Eichel.
You trade for Eichel because you view him as your franchise C. The guy at $10m for the next 4 1/2 years that you're going to form your team around. You trade for him with the vision of him being your best forward. He is a franchise-altering player, and given how he impacts the long term trajectory of your team, you can put just about any prospect into the conversation.
On the Miller front, nobody's trading for him to be their #1C or the teams best forward. While he's obviously done really well since being traded to Vancouver, I think he's somebody that most GMs will view as the perfect complementary piece that you can get for a couple of runs, use up the remainder of his prime (at potentially a super-cheap $2.6m price), and then let him walk. Maybe he "fixes" a problematic 2nd line. Maybe he plays a support role on a 1st line. He forsure produces on the powerplay, likely gets bounced around into a variety of different scenarios.
No question Miller is valuable, but he's not the kind of valuable that teams trade franchise-altering prospects for; because he likely doesn't fit into the long term plans for whichever team is acquiring him.
- The Muzzin deal is a really good comparable.
- Mark Stone also a somewhat reasonable comparison; although the vision for Vegas was certainly to sign Stone immediately and make him a franchise player. He was younger than Miller is as well.
- Pacioretty similar to Stone.
- Hall to Arizona -- I think one runs the risk of underestimating what that deal meant to Arizona in trying to get a reigning MVP who would resign there / make the team relevant -- under what if I recall was reasonably new ownership at the time. I don't think Miller carries that type of "cachet".
Look at the teams rumored to be in on him, and where he likely fits....
-- In Toronto, he's an ideal LWer for one of their top 2 lines, amongst 4 really talented highly paid skill players. He'd be there to do "the grunt work", or maybe make the Leafs 3 lines deep offensively by being the 3rd line C, or a 2nd line LW to run with Kerfoot & Nylander on the 3rd line.
- In New York, they've got their 3 stars in Panarin/Kreider/Zibanejad. Miller likely factors in as the #2C, pushing Strome down/out. Maybe finds himself as the "dirty work" guy on the right side. I suspect they view themselves as still a year or two away from contending, so dropping a huge haul of assets on Miller doesn't make a ton of sense.
- In Los Angeles, it might actually be the best fit for him offensively, given that they don't score a lot and their best player is also a tough matchup guy... but I have to wonder whether they believe that their current core can actually win, or whether they need more from Kempe, Byfield, etc.
- In Boston, I think there's also an ideal fit as a 2nd line C... but how much are they really prepared to / how much do they have to part with? especially on a team that doesn't have the most spectacular blueline.
