Proposal: Miller to TOR (again)

[thusk]

Who was the last rental+1 forward to be traded? Stone and Pacioretty were full season + extension so not really comparable.

Last big rental+1's I can think of were Muzzin and McDonagh.
Muzzin 1st + Grundstrom + Durzi (two recent 2nd's tracking well, B+/A- type prospects)
McDonagh and JT MIller vs namesnikov+1st + Howden + Hajek + 2nd (conditional 1st) (an additional pick, Howden a straight A type, Hajek a B+/A-)

Miller should be somewhere between those prices. Leaf's Knies and Niemela don't have the draft pedigree of Howden and Hajek, but are performing a clear step above.

 

[mydnyte]

Who was the last rental+1 forward to be traded? Stone and Pacioretty were full season + extension so not really comparable.

Last big rental+1's I can think of were Muzzin and McDonagh.
Muzzin 1st + Grundstrom + Durzi (two recent 2nd's tracking well, B+/A- type prospects)
McDonagh 1st + Howden + Hajek + 2nd (conditional 1st) (an additional pick, Howden a straight A type, Hajek a B+/A-)

Miller should be somewhere between those prices. Leaf's Knies and Niemela don't have the draft pedigree of Howden and Hajek, but are performing a clear step above.

is Miller a top level D man? ...no, then he doesnt hold their value
Miller is a 2nd line forward.

 

[4thline]

I hold those two as a equal trade/change of scenery. Namestnikov's career obviously hasn't tracked as well since, but he was a promising young middle 6er, on pace for almost 60 points at the time of the tried. You could argue Miller valued a little higher, but I'd have trouble giving that value of the full weight of either the conditional pick or Hajek.

 

[4thline]

is Miller a top level D man? ...no, then he doesnt hold their value
Miller is a 2nd line forward.

Miller is 32nd in league scoring over the last for seasons, 15th the last 3.

He's not the superstar/franchise level player nucks fans are building him up to be, but he's a damn good 1st line player.

 

[mydnyte]

Miller is 32nd in league scoring over the last for seasons, 15th the last 3.

He's not the superstar/franchise level player nucks fans are building him up to be, but he's a damn good 1st line player.

he has more points the past 3 seasons than Crosby, Stamkos, Barkov or Tavares over the past 3 seasons, but, they are all better players than Miller.

On the Leafs, he'd play on the LW of either Matthews line, or Tavares's line, and bunting has solidified his spot, so, he'd slot down to #2LW and then, you could hope he'd be complimentary to 2 goal scorers who like to have the puck on their sticks. So, I dont think he works there.
Miller is a very good player, but, he costs too much to acquire, and then it would be difficult to get a good fit on this team, just tossing his name on a line doesnt mean it will work on the ice, as good as it may look on paper (or a video game).
He'd be ideal on the 3rd line LW and he'd give that line some serious firepower, but, I'd consider that a waste of his talent for what he's paid, and the cost it would take to get him on the team.

cost would be better spend on a solid defender who has term left.

 

[Just a Fan]

he has more points the past 3 seasons than Crosby, Stamkos, Barkov or Tavares over the past 3 seasons, but, they are all better players than Miller.

On the Leafs, he'd play on the LW of either Matthews line, or Tavares's line, and bunting has solidified his spot, so, he'd slot down to #2LW and then, you could hope he'd be complimentary to 2 goal scorers who like to have the puck on their sticks. So, I dont think he works there.
Miller is a very good player, but, he costs too much to acquire, and then it would be difficult to get a good fit on this team, just tossing his name on a line doesnt mean it will work on the ice, as good as it may look on paper (or a video game).
He'd be ideal on the 3rd line LW and he'd give that line some serious firepower, but, I'd consider that a waste of his talent for what he's paid, and the cost it would take to get him on the team.

cost would be better spend on a solid defender who has term left.

The bolded are the reasons i hope Dubas doesn't even consider trading for Miller.

 

[4thline]

he has more points the past 3 seasons than Crosby, Stamkos, Barkov or Tavares over the past 3 seasons, but, they are all better players than Miller.

On the Leafs, he'd play on the LW of either Matthews line, or Tavares's line, and bunting has solidified his spot, so, he'd slot down to #2LW and then, you could hope he'd be complimentary to 2 goal scorers who like to have the puck on their sticks. So, I dont think he works there.
Miller is a very good player, but, he costs too much to acquire, and then it would be difficult to get a good fit on this team, just tossing his name on a line doesnt mean it will work on the ice, as good as it may look on paper (or a video game).
He'd be ideal on the 3rd line LW and he'd give that line some serious firepower, but, I'd consider that a waste of his talent for what he's paid, and the cost it would take to get him on the team.

cost would be better spend on a solid defender who has term left.

Those are the arguments for why the Leafs shouldn't pay that much for him, not arguments against him being worth that, or for him being a 2nd line player (as you asserted) rather than a 1st line player (as he is).

 

[Just a Fan]

Those are the arguments for why the Leafs shouldn't pay that much for him, not arguments against him being worth that, or for him being a 2nd line player (as you asserted) rather than a 1st line player (as he is).

i have never argued his worth, just that the asking price isn't worth it for Toronto.

 

[PatrikBerglund]

he has more points the past 3 seasons than Crosby, Stamkos, Barkov or Tavares over the past 3 seasons, but, they are all better players than Miller.

On the Leafs, he'd play on the LW of either Matthews line, or Tavares's line, and bunting has solidified his spot, so, he'd slot down to #2LW and then, you could hope he'd be complimentary to 2 goal scorers who like to have the puck on their sticks. So, I dont think he works there.
Miller is a very good player, but, he costs too much to acquire, and then it would be difficult to get a good fit on this team, just tossing his name on a line doesnt mean it will work on the ice, as good as it may look on paper (or a video game).
He'd be ideal on the 3rd line LW and he'd give that line some serious firepower, but, I'd consider that a waste of his talent for what he's paid, and the cost it would take to get him on the team.

cost would be better spend on a solid defender who has term left.

Myers @50% for Lillypads.

 

[Just a Fan]

Myers @50% for Lillypads.

Vomit worthy....like wow that's bad for Toronto.

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

No he's not a top 10 scorer, lol.

Mcdavid, Drai, Kucherov, Panarin, Mackinnon, Mathews, Rantanen, Marchand, Huberdeau, Marner, Barkov, Aho, Crosby, Kane, Ovechkin..

There's 15 who are more prolific than Miller. He's good. He's not a top 10 scoring forward.

2021-22 NHL Player Skating Stats | ESPN

 

[CatchyTune]

Who was the last rental+1 forward to be traded? Stone and Pacioretty were full season + extension so not really comparable.

Last big rental+1's I can think of were Muzzin and McDonagh.
Muzzin 1st + Grundstrom + Durzi (two recent 2nd's tracking well, B+/A- type prospects)
McDonagh 1st + Howden + Hajek + 2nd (conditional 1st) (an additional pick, Howden a straight A type, Hajek a B+/A-)

Miller should be somewhere between those prices. Leaf's Knies and Niemela don't have the draft pedigree of Howden and Hajek, but are performing a clear step above.

Yeah thats the type of package i expect he would go for. All these 3-4 1sts proposals are ludicrous. Probably the value of 2 1sts and a 2nd ish

 

[4thline]

Yeah thats the type of package i expect he would go for. All these 3-4 1sts proposals are ludicrous. Probably the value of 2 1sts and a 2nd ish

Eh, You could argue that the McDonagh deal is pretty damn close to 4 (late) 1sts).

 

[CatchyTune]

Eh, You could argue that the McDonagh deal is pretty damn close to 4 (late) 1sts).

Yeah i would be fine dealing a guaranteed 1st, 2nd that turns into a 1st with playoff success, and 2 Durzi/Grundstrom/Hajek level prospects. I dont even know if the leafs have any of that tier.

 

[cneely]

2021-22 NHL Player Skating Stats | ESPN

29th in Points per game.
I'll ask again, which of those 15 players I listed is he better than?

 

[Cogburn]

29th in Points per game.
I'll ask again, which of those 15 players I listed is he better than?

Moving the goalposts when you've been proven wrong eh? Neat.

 

[cneely]

Moving the goalposts when you've been proven wrong eh? Neat.

Goal posts? JT Miller is not a top 10 scorer in this league. That's the statement I am laughing at. Mind telling me what goal posts I moved?

 

[Canadian Canuck]

Schenn is at best a 6th dman and worst than lyubushkin and holl...

Its a hard pass for leafs. At this price, its by far better choice to go for a rental player

Schenn is better than Justin freaking Holl

 

[Cogburn]

Goal posts? JT Miller is not a top 10 scorer in this league. That's the statement I am laughing at. Mind telling me what goal posts I moved?

Stats presently say otherwise. It's not like the ESPN link you disregarded is skewed in Millers favor or something either.

 

[cneely]

Stats presently say otherwise. It's not like the ESPN link you disregarded is skewed in Millers favor or something either.

If the statement was, "He's currently in the top 10 in the NHL for scoring", I have no problem with that. It's verifiably true.

The statement was "He's a top 10 scoring forward in the NHL". For you to believe that to be true, he would have to be a better scoring forward than at least 5 of these guys:

Mcdavid, Drai, Kucherov, Panarin, Mackinnon, Mathews, Rantanen, Marchand, Huberdeau, Marner, Barkov, Aho, Crosby, Kane, Ovechkin..

Tell me which 5 he is a better scoring forward than please.

 

[Cogburn]

So...there are 15 players that have produced more points then Miller? Because how do you measure the merits of a scoring forward objectively if not points.

 

[cneely]

So...there are 15 players that have produced more points then Miller? Because how do you measure the merits of a scoring forward objectively if not points.

PPG is undeniably a more accurate measure when every team has not played the same number of games.

 

[Bankerguy]

Canucks fan here.
Obviously Jt. Miller wont return the equivalent of four first round picks lol.

He's a real good player. Not only does he produce points but he's got grit, he hits, great at taking face-offs and can play any forward position.

I think the realistic expectation is a first round pick and a A-chip prospect. like a top 15 pick player who's been progressing as expected..
Then layer in the fact that you get Jt Miller at a very reasonable price for a SECOND year as well..and i think you have to add a B-Tier prospect or a youngish NHL player (tweener - 23-25 yrs old) etc.

Here's the thing, the Canucks are not going to get two years worth of a top line forward deadline trade. (2 1st, 2 tier 'A" tier prospects) The marginal return on the second year of his contract is traded now is like i described above, going to be a lesser add, (b tier prospect etc). So, it doesnt really make sense for them to trade him now. They should just flip him at NEXT years dead line and still score the 1st and tier A player (assuming he keeps playing well). The extra add for the 2nd year isn't worth it.

Now, if a team steps up and does offer a package that reflects TWO years worth of a top line player trade-deadline return..then it makes sense for Van.

 

[SensFactor]

That's a high price to pay for J.T Miller for sure but Miller is a hot item around the league.

So I wouldn't be surprised if it was:

Toronto: J.T Miller and Schenn

Vancouver: 1st 2022, Robertson, Liljegren, Kerfoot (salary purposes)

 

[4thline]

Canucks fan here.
Obviously Jt. Miller wont return the equivalent of four first round picks lol.

He's a real good player. Not only does he produce points but he's got grit, he hits, great at taking face-offs and can play any forward position.

I think the realistic expectation is a first round pick and a A-chip prospect. like a top 15 pick player who's been progressing as expected..
Then layer in the fact that you get Jt Miller at a very reasonable price for a SECOND year as well..and i think you have to add a B-Tier prospect or a youngish NHL player (tweener - 23-25 yrs old) etc.

Here's the thing, the Canucks are not going to get two years worth of a top line forward deadline trade. (2 1st, 2 tier 'A" tier prospects) The marginal return on the second year of his contract is traded now is like i described above, going to be a lesser add, (b tier prospect etc). So, it doesnt really make sense for them to trade him now. They should just flip him at NEXT years dead line and still score the 1st and tier A player (assuming he keeps playing well). The extra add for the 2nd year isn't worth it.

Now, if a team steps up and does offer a package that reflects TWO years worth of a top line player trade-deadline return..then it makes sense for Van.

I like the recognition that NHL trade value doesn't scale proportionally with term, but NHL trade precedent pretty clearly shows that the "A type, top 15 pick progressing well" isn't likely in the cards.