Proposal: Leon Draisaitl + Jesse Puljujarvi for Ivan Provorov + Anthony Stolarz

[bucks_oil]

I don't have a rooting interest here,
but if Hextall, you take this original 2 for 2 in a heartbeat.

worst case, to recover depth, you could turn around either forward for just about anything ... maybe even Trouba

Exactly... Trouba... an RD, established at the NHL level is EXACTLY what EDMONTON needs... no need for a Philly intermediary if that deal was on the table.

 

[The Nuge]

Until he proves it, he's just a good prospect.

OK, snark aside...

OP's trade was definitely over the top in terms of value to Philly, but given our positional needs, that's exactly the type of Godfather offer it would take for us to say yes to a deal. We can't accept fair value, because we absolutely have to have the skill set we expect Provorov to bring.

Edmonton, of course, can't offer that much for him, despite the fact that they would obviously benefit from what Provorov brings (and, given that offense is not the Oilers' problem, I think they'd benefit more from having Provorov than they would from having either Draisaitl or Puljujarvi, though clearly not as much as they'd benefit from having both of their guys.)

All that being said, I do consider Provorov to be a prospect on roughly the same level as Puljujarvi, and given our needs, would rather have him than either one of the Oilers being offered. If we could be more sure of Sanheim reaching his potential, the equation might be different, and a one for one trade might make more sense. As it stands, though, Edmonton would rather not give up on their high picks, and Philly would rather not trade a player at a position of relative weakness for one at a position of relative strength, so there's no deal here.

Puljujarvi is just a prospect at this point. He is however a slightly higher touted prospected. Both teams like who they've got, and the fit really isn't there for the trade anyways

 

[Homesick]

First, acquiring Provorov is not "throwing away" your depth; it's trading from a position of presumed strength (given the pipeline of forward prospects we already know you have) to shore up a weakness, one that Oilers fans have spent the past several years bemoaning.

Second, nobody is calling Puljujarvi a throw in, except you. Irrational hyperbole does you no favors.

Third, it's highly likely that the Oilers would be better with a third-year center than with a rookie defenseman, for this upcoming season. However, the purpose of adding a rookie with a projected #1D ceiling isn't to maximize a team's growth in the season immediately following the deal; that would be ludicrous.

In any case, Philadelphia is well aware that OP's deal would never be offered, and for the reasons I listed above, neither team would agree to the revised deal Curufinwe proposed earlier in the thread. No need for either side to get snippy about it; there's just no way to get past the rational objections both sides have.

I haven't seen an Oilers fan/media yet to say that they really need a LHD prospect. Not one.

Needs in order - NHL right hand PP QB(Provorov isn't one), 3C(Draisaitl is at the very low end), Top 6 RW(The Oilers only have Eberle, and Puljujarvi is at least a 2RW)

 

[Hockeypete49]

You might want to tap the breaks. He's a really good prospect that's in the same tier as guys like Strome, Marner, and Dubois. Guys like this have a lot of value, but guys like Pulju and Draisaitl have more value. Draisaitl would have been in that tier of prospects, but he has "proved it" points. Pulju is a tier above those guys.

You might want to pump yours. You already have your two in the hall.

 

[Homesick]

You might want to pump yours. You already have your two in the hall.

Kurri, Anderson?

 

[Derrty]

Woof. Another dog from the OP.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Wait both?

One of them seems way closer to fair

 

[Avsblitzkrieg]

Still not good for Edmonton. Pulju and Draisaitl are both a tier up from Provorov. Stolarz doesn't make up the difference.

Pulju is closer to Eichel/Matthews as a prospect, Provorov is closer to Strome. It's a big gap. Like, probably a full number on the HF scale. Draisaitl has already proven he's a big NHL talent. That's worth quite a bit.

But at no point did you figure on the difference between wingers center and d-men. I'd say it's pretty close value for drai and provorov. Then again I have no dog in this fight

 

[Riptide]

Anthony Stolarz

Ivan Provorov

-------------------------------------------------------------------------


Leon Draisaitl

Jesse Puljujarvi

Jesus that's awful for Edmonton.

But at no point did you figure on the difference between wingers center and d-men. I'd say it's pretty close value for drai and provorov. Then again I have no dog in this fight

Provorov hasn't played an NHL game yet. Drai>Provorov, and it's not all that close. And regardless of how good Stolarz might look, even established goalies don't have the value to get someone like Puljujarvi, so I'm not sure how a prospect who hasn't played an NHL game would hold that value.

 

[oilerbear]

But at no point did you figure on the difference between wingers center and d-men. I'd say it's pretty close value for drai and provorov. Then again I have no dog in this fight

6th best scoring pvP center in the game.
better numbers than kopitar.

so......
what you are saying is
"I'd say it's pretty close value for Kopitar and Provorov.

 

[Leafidelity]

Oilers take an absolute beating in that original trade. Stolarz doesn't belong among those other names.

 

[oilerbear]

I haven't seen an Oilers fan/media yet to say that they really need a LHD prospect. Not one.

Needs in order - NHL right hand PP QB(Provorov isn't one), 3C(Draisaitl is at the very low end), Top 6 RW(The Oilers only have Eberle, and Puljujarvi is at least a 2RW)

So you think the 20th best Even production forward in the game is on the bottom end of 3C caliber.

Awful hockey scouting.

Horrifically scouting!

 

[Roo Mad Bro]

So you think the 20th best Even production forward in the game is on the bottom end of 3C caliber.

Awful hockey scouting.

Horrifically scouting!

Says the person who said that Provorov is behind the likes of Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones LOL.

 

[oilerbear]

EVP/60 Forwards last year:
#20 Draisatl 2.20 EVP/60
#54 Monohan 1.96 EVp/60

So Monohan + Tkachuk for Provorov + Stolarz.



This offers poorer EVP/60 center in monohan and a lower drafted winger!

 

[Soundwave]

I think Provorov is going to be a player, but really how many defencemen under 25 do the Oilers need.

Adam Larsson, Darnell Nurse, Oscar Klefbom, Griffin Reinhart are already there and need to play, the last time I checked there's only 6 d positions (really 4 if you're any good).

I know the whole "Oilers need D" thing has been a mantra here, but it's becoming overkill at this point too.

After paying a hefty price of Taylor Hall for Larsson, they'd be stupid to gut more of their offence.

 

[snipes]

Says the person who said that Provorov is behind the likes of Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones LOL.

Don't worry too much about oilerbear, he's our resident savant. But honestly, sometimes you can't tell if he's off the mark or on some rain man level and sees things we all miss.

I watched Provy lots this year in the WHL. Hands down best Dman in the regular season.

 

[oilerbear]

Says the person who said that Provorov is behind the likes of Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones LOL.

I would be the guy who created the analytic concept of High scoring chance area.
you know the area 1/3 of the shots get 75% of the games goals.
War on ice copied.

Provorov is not as good as Bear and jones at defending that area.
77% of Goal differential affect that comes form Dmen High scoring chance area defence at even and PK.
the other 23% affect from Dmen comes from EVGF and PPGF

Also came up with
Goal diferential per dollar.

that others have copied.
Like Amars GVT.

Who are you and how have you identified and broken down game play to an accepted analytic concept.

Prove to me that your personal attack is from some one with useful hockey knowledge.
Cause i enjoy discussing the game at a math and video mechanics level.

Give me some real facts buddy!

Not an opinion cause you are bothered by what i say.

You know a point of view supported by fact and knowledge.
There are some elite level math and business minds that have not been able to disprove, the only real important part of Dmen play is HSCA defence at even and PK.

you want the best HSCA; EVGA; PKGA d in the league.

last 2 years
top 20 HSCA
top 15 EVGA
top 15 PKGA

adam larsson
1st comp
top 10 HSCA
#1 EVGA D
12 PKGA D

Carl alzner
1st comp
top 20 HSCA d
#14 EVGA D
#11 PKGA D

here is one for you:
look at the past 20 cup winners.

what does every cup winner in the last 20 years have.

1. HSCA d system coach
2. top 10 HSCA save5 goalie
3. 3+ top 60 HSCA D
4. 2 #1 EV fed or 3 Ev line fwd depth.
5. +goal differential PK/PP

I look forward to your supporting video and analytic evidence in proving provorov is superior to Bear and Jones.

 

[snipes]

Don't worry too much about oilerbear, he's our resident savant. But honestly, sometimes you can't tell if he's off the mark or on some rain man level and sees things we all miss.

I watched Provy lots this year in the WHL. Hands down best Dman in the regular season.

And I mean this in the sense of having a prodigy type mind for statistical analysis. Some of his stuff is legit.

 

[LeapOnOver]

Add me to the unanimous group that says this is a massively bad trade for the Oil. The value isn't even close. It's like trading Hall for Lars...nevermind.

 

[Roo Mad Bro]

I would be the guy who created the analytic concept of High scoring chance area.
you know the area 1/3 of the shots get 75% of the games goals.
War on ice copied.

Provorov is not as good as Bear and jones at defending that area.
77% of Goal differential affect that comes form Dmen High scoring chance area defence at even and PK.
the other 23% affect from Dmen comes from EVGF and PPGF

Also came up with
Goal diferential per dollar.

that others have copied.
Like Amars GVT.

Who are you and how have you identified and broken down game play to an accepted analytic concept.

Prove to me that your personal attack is from some one with useful hockey knowledge.
Cause i enjoy discussing the game at a math and video mechanics level.

Give me some real facts buddy!

Not an opinion cause you are bothered by what i say.

You know a point of view supported by fact and knowledge.
There are some elite level math and business minds that have not been able to disprove, the only real important part of Dmen play is HSCA defence at even and PK.

you want the best HSCA; EVGA; PKGA d in the league.

last 2 years
top 20 HSCA
top 15 EVGA
top 15 PKGA

adam larsson
1st comp
top 10 HSCA
#1 EVGA D
12 PKGA D

Carl alzner
1st comp
top 20 HSCA d
#14 EVGA D
#11 PKGA D

here is one for you:
look at the past 20 cup winners.

what does every cup winner in the last 20 years have.

1. HSCA d system coach
2. top 10 HSCA save5 goalie
3. 3+ top 60 HSCA D
4. 2 #1 EV fed or 3 Ev line fwd depth.
5. +goal differential PK/PP

I look forward to your supporting video and analytic evidence in proving provorov is superior to Bear and Jones.

Where is the MATH and STATS to back up that Provorov is worse than all of those Oilers D prospects in those stats that you purportedly made up? You lambast me for not using stats but you haven't backed up your claim at all

 

[stokes84]

But at no point did you figure on the difference between wingers center and d-men. I'd say it's pretty close value for drai and provorov. Then again I have no dog in this fight

No, it's not close. And I have no dog in this fight either. In fact, I had Provorov as my no. 4 prospect in 2015, ahead of Marner. It's still not close. Pulju is flat out a much higher rated player, and Draisaitl is on the same tier as an amateur but has proven his worth. And smart GMs would value top forwards over top defensemen going forward, but that's a debate for a different thread.

 

[Doug Gilmour]

Philly says no pretty easily.


Provorov is an extremely rare type of Dman, and is one of the very few Defensive prospects where you're not worried about his development.


He's going to be an elite #1D. And Philly isn't trading him for a couple of forwards.

But you don't think twice if you're being offered a #1C and #1LW/RW for him though. Edmonton would be coming out looking worse than Columbus in the Clarkson-Horton deal.

 

[bleuetbio]

is Stolarz a young Price in this scenario?

Draisaitl~>~Provorov (at least at this stage)
Pulju and Stolarz are not even in the same realm, Pulju is the best player in this deal

I agree to that post.

 

[dats81]

The proposed trade is lopsided in favour of the Flyers.

The only way this could ever happen would be in a Draisaitl for Provorov 1:1 trade.

Stolarz has come along just fine but chances of him every being more than an NHL backup or a journeyman AHLer are slim. And there is a lot of competition coming up within the Flyers' system the next couple of years. Puljujarvi is unproven but his ceiling is way too high to just use him in a package deal.

 

[Hockeypete49]

Kurri, Anderson?

Clarke/Barber