Proposal: Leon Draisaitl + Jesse Puljujarvi for Ivan Provorov + Anthony Stolarz

[stokes84]

We're splitting hairs here. Provorov isn't the clear cut top defense prospect in hockey, but of those who are drafted he is 1 or 2.

Hanifin is no. 1 from that draft, clear as day. Then he is tied with Werenski. And he's probably also tied with Juolevi and Sergachev as well. And Liljegren is above all but Hanifin. It's not splitting hairs. Pulju was a franchise caliber winger that could go no. 1 in many drafts. Not close.

 

[ManofSteel55]

They aren't right to value them as close, but it's nice of you to be diplomatic.

Sure they are. Provorov looked not great in the Mem Cup, but that doesn't make him one of the best prospects in the world. I took issue with the guy who suggested that he was a lock to be a top pair defenseman. He isn't. But Pulujarvi isn't a lock to be a 1st line winger either. You are guilty of valuing Pulujarvi too highly, just as some of the more...zealous...Philly fans are guilty of doing the same for Provorov. #3 prospect in the world (IMO) vs the #7-10 prospect in the world. It's not that far off.

 

[Cootsfanclub]

He's not the best D prospect in hockey. He wasn't the best defensemen in his own class. The defensemen drafted directly after him can easily claim to be the same level or better. Timothy Liljegren is a better defensive prospect in this upcoming draft. Pulju would undoubtedly be the no. 1 prospect in this draft, and quite a few others, something Provorov would never be considered for. I'm sorry, you guys are out to lunch on this.

I'll disagree that he isn't the best D prospect in his own class. Pulju wouldn't be undoubtedly above Patrick. Haven't seen Liljegren, won't say anything. If Provorov were in last years draft I think he would have been taken over Pulju though.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Hanifin is no. 1 from that draft, clear as day. Then he is tied with Werenski. And he's probably also tied with Juolevi and Sergachev as well. And Liljegren is above all but Hanifin. It's not splitting hairs. Pulju was a franchise caliber winger that could go no. 1 in many drafts. Not close.

Hanafin isn't a prospect so he isn't in this discussion.

He is tied with Werenski, I agree, or close to it.

Liljegren isn't draft eligible yet, which is why I said he is the #1 or #2 best drafted prospect in the world.

Juolevi isn't as good. I would take Sergachev over Juolevi. But I wouldn't take him over Provorov either.

Pulujarvi would go #1 only in very weak drafts. Nolan Patrick is a better prospect. Liljegren may be as well. He would have went ahead of Yakupov. Maybe ahead of Nugent-Hopkins, but that's no guarantee either.

Provorov also would have been considered a potential #1 in weak drafts IMO.

 

[Tripod]

because he's clearly the better prospect. There's nothing disingenuous about it. It would be like if Calagary fans were trying to argue that Sam Bennett was on par with Eichel before either played in the NHL. Well they are both just prospects... No, they're not. One is a super prospect. The other is very good, but he's not a super prospect.

But again...we just saw a top 5 LW get traded for a #2 Dman...Hall for Larsson. So even if Pool Party Is better in the future, it doesn't mean his value will be more.

 

[ManofSteel55]

But again...we just saw a top 5 LW get traded for a #2 Dman...Hall for Larsson. So even if Pool Party Is better in the future, it doesn't mean his value will be more.

Also true. Pulujarvi's higher value at the moment stems from being closer to the NHL, not potential upside, and certainly not potential future value.

 

[Starat327]

Well, one thing to consider is that Pulujarvi is essentially universally considered NHL top 6 ready. That was the scouting report before the draft, and it really hasn't changed. Its no slight for Provorov to not be considered a lock yet, defenders take longer to develop and often need AHL time to adjust more than forwards. And we know for a fact that in man cases, ready sooner = more desirable for NHL teams.

All this said, I think both are top 10 prospects, and that Flyers fans are right to consider them worth very similar. One just looks closer than the other.

No argument there that he is probably more ready and will have a quicker impact - but a lot of us wouldn't be surprised if Provorov made the team this year. As you said, it takes longer for defensemen to develop. But in my eyes, like you said - they are pretty even.

 

[snipes]

I think some Oiler fans are underselling Provorov. Especially considering the value of Dmen have today, he's legit. Provorov and Pulju are definitely in the same tier as prospects. They are among the elite prospects right now.

As for this thread, Flyers fans have been pretty damn reasonable and both sides see it's stacked in their favour because of Drai. Don't see what we have left to debate.

 

[Tripod]

Also true. Pulujarvi's higher value at the moment stems from being closer to the NHL, not potential upside, and certainly not potential future value.

And I have no issue with people saying this as forwards are often quicker to produce at the NHL so are easier to project.

And fwiw, in the HF polls, Pool was#4.... Provy was #6. There is not this giant tier gap between the 2 like others suggest(not you).

Reality is, if it was 1-1 trades, Philly likely doesn't trade Privy fig either due to team need. We have Giroux, Couts, Voracek and Simmonds for the top 6 in the positions that Pool and LD play. They don't fit a team need....whereas Provy potentially does. Just think, we had MDZ as our #1 LHD last year. Not ideal even though he is much improved.

And I will say it again before anyone gets confused, the OP is bad for Edmonton. In fact, if Philly added Konecny, they still say no. They finally look to have depth at C, and Pool can be in the top 6 RW since Yak has stalled. And with Klefbom on D...they have someone to play on the top pair. Then have Nurse on the way for the 2nd pairing.

 

[snipes]

And I have no issue with people saying this as forwards are often quicker to produce at the NHL so are easier to project.

And fwiw, in the HF polls, Pool was#4.... Provy was #6. There is not this giant tier gap between the 2 like others suggest(not you).

Reality is, if it was 1-1 trades, Philly likely doesn't trade Privy fig either due to team need. We have Giroux, Couts, Voracek and Simmonds for the top 6 in the positions that Pool and LD play. They don't fit a team need....whereas Provy potentially does. Just think, we had MDZ as our #1 LHD last year. Not ideal even though he is much improved.

And I will say it again before anyone gets confused, the OP is bad for Edmonton. In fact, if Philly added Konecny, they still say no. They finally look to have depth at C, and Pool can be in the top 6 RW since Yak has stalled. And with Klefbom on D...they have someone to play on the top pair. Then have Nurse on the way for the 2nd pairing.

Good post. Even if Pulju is slightly ahead, the value of D is greater than W.

1 for 1 they are likely equal value (at the very least same tier), maybe position might even put Provy ahead or make it a dead tie. But needs for both wouldn't work (if he was a RHD, I would think long and hard about it). Philly also is strong at wing. You obviously have solid knowledge on the Oilers roster, RW is a big need for us.

Hopefully Provorov is up this season, I like his upside.

 

[ellismate]

Imagine turning Hall, Draisatl, and Puljujarvi into Larsson and Provorov. Chiarelli would be laughed off the face of the planet.

They should just keep what they have. It's proven to work so well in the past

 

[McFlyingV]

They should just keep what they have. It's proven to work so well in the past

Right, because they haven't made any changes over the past year since Chiarelli was hired

 

[Golden Gophers 4649]

Philly says no pretty easily.


Provorov is an extremely rare type of Dman, and is one of the very few Defensive prospects where you're not worried about his development.


He's going to be an elite #1D. And Philly isn't trading him for a couple of forwards.

And because there has to be one in every crowd!!!

 

[TheKingPin]

Hanifin is no. 1 from that draft, clear as day. Then he is tied with Werenski. And he's probably also tied with Juolevi and Sergachev as well. And Liljegren is above all but Hanifin. It's not splitting hairs. Pulju was a franchise caliber winger that could go no. 1 in many drafts. Not close.

It's obviously a matter of opinion. Some guys like the mike greens of the world. They are great, but don't win championships. In fact they are targeted and can be the weakness in strong teams. A guy like provorov has been shown to be needed to win a championship. The more you have the better, but D is always more important than offense. Where you rank provorov is up to you, but he seems to be the real deal and has number 1 written all over him. I'd personally take the number 1 d prospect group in hockey (not even including) ghost, over the number 1 or 2 ranked offensive prospects any day of the week. Flyer fans know what it takes to get to the finals or semi and what it takes to win.

 

[Jumptheshark]

But again...we just saw a top 5 LW get traded for a #2 Dman...Hall for Larsson. So even if Pool Party Is better in the future, it doesn't mean his value will be more.

that was a special case--oilers were desperate for a RHD

 

[Tripod]

that was a special case--oilers were desperate for a RHD

And Philly has Voracek and Simmonds at RW....Giroux and Couts at C....we are not desperate for either Oilers forward either.

This point gets lost on some people.

 

[garyturner3]

He's not the best D prospect in hockey. He wasn't the best defensemen in his own class. The defensemen drafted directly after him can easily claim to be the same level or better. Timothy Liljegren is a better defensive prospect in this upcoming draft. IPulju would undoubtedly be the no. 1 prospect in this draft, and quite a few others, something Provorov would never be considered for. I'm sorry, you guys are out to lunch on this.

Wow that's a pretty big reach. Patrick just put up great numbers in his draft-1 year, plus he's big AND a center. If he follows last season up with any sort of improvement at all he'd easily be picked ahead of Puljujarvi. And I'm a big Puljujarvi fan.

 

[48g90a138pts]

A year ago Jesse Puljujärvi was ranked ahead of Patrick Laine. I think his injured knee probably dropped him from going 2nd.

 

[Measles]

They should just keep what they have. It's proven to work so well in the past

The most unoriginal reply every time an Oiler fan rejects a hugely lopsided trade. So you think the Oiler's solution then is to accept every downgrade, cap dump or unproven prospect thrown their way because, hey!, they need to try something different than before?

 

[oilerbear]

The most unoriginal reply every time an Oiler fan rejects a hugely lopsided trade. So you think the Oiler's solution then is to accept every downgrade, cap dump or unproven prospect thrown their way because, hey!, they need to try something different than before?

Every cup winner has had on team:
1. HSCA D system coach:
TMac: Confirmed employment by PC at 2016 WHC

2. Top 10 HSCA Save% goalie
HSCA save% last 3 years:
1. Price .889
------------------- tear 1
2. Talbot; Griess #2 .886;
MacT arrranged trade Deadline 2015; Committed to assets with Petry trade. Sather offered PC the trade cause MacT was still with org and committed the assets.
Otherwise talbot goes to another team with a draft day better offer.
4. Holtby .885
------------------- tier 2
5. Halak: .882
6. jones .881
7. Eliott; Allen .880
------------------ tier 3
8. Crawford .878
9. Lundquist .877
------------------ tier 4
11. Schneider; Bernier .874
12. Mrazek .873
------------------ tier 5

the importance is?

based on league average 10.5 HSCA shots
#1 Price .889
10.5 X (1.000 - .889) = 1.17 GA/60
#2 Talbot .886
10.5 X (1.000 - .886) = 1.20 GA/60
#11 Bernier .874
10.5 X (1.000 - .874) = 1.32 GA/60
#26 Andersson .862
10.5 X (1.000 - .862) = 1.45 GA/60
#30 Reimer
10.5 X (1.000 - .860) = 1.46 GA/60
A 21.2 % variance in GA result from #1 to #30 HSCA save% goalie.

3.. 3+ top60 HSCA D. the more the better . As many in top 4
Dmen can give up 7.5 to 13.5 + HSCA shots.
6/13.5 = 44.2%

Talbot GA from HSCA shots:
7.50 HSCA shots 7.5 X (1.000-.886) = 0.86GA/60
13.50 HSCA shots 13.5 X (.114) = 1.54 GA/60; A
1.54 - .96 = .68 GA/60 difference. .68/1.54 = 44.2%
there is a 44.2% difference in GA/60 from the 6 HSCA shot difference from best to worst Dmen.


Larsson 7.80 HSCA Shots Top 10 -> not with team last year.
7.80 X .114 = .89 GA/60
Davidson top 30 8.68 HSCA shot - missed 31gm
8.68 X .114 = .99 GA/60
Klefbom 10.00 top 60 HSCA D - missed 51gm
10.00 X .114 = 1.14 GA/60
-------------------------------these 3 combined with Talbots HSCA save%
Sekera: forced to Play above comp ability last year.
vs 1st comp 12.11 HSCA SH/60
12.11 X .114 = 1.38 GA/60
vs 2nd comp or lower 7.58 HSCA SH/60
7.58 X .114 = .86 GA/60
Fayne 12.10
was Top 20 SA D from 10-11 to 14-15
The #1 HSCA d from 10-11 to 13-14 in NJ.

Nurse; Gryba; Reinhart; Schultz were all bottom 20 HSCA D.
13.5+
like Giordano; Faulk; Rielly; D. Hamilton.

4. 2 #1(top 90 fwd) or 3 lines (top 150) of EVG/EVA/EVP production forwards:
last 3 seasons Fwd rank:
Mcdavid C #1 EVp/60; #5 EVA/60; #9 EVG/60
missed 37gm
Draisatl C #25 EVA/60; #73 EVP/60
missed 10gm
Last yr 1st full season: #20 EVP/60; #24 EVA/60; #84 EVG/60
Eberle RW #46 EVG/60; #61 EVP/60
missed 13; played hurt gm 14-26
Pouliot LW #50 EVP/60; #54 EVA/60 #70 EVG/60
missed27gm
Maroon LW #61 EVA/60; #97 EVP/60
played 16gm for us
Kassian RW #61 EVG/60; #141 EVP/60
drying out!
Lucic LW #72 EVG/6; #78 EVP/60; #90 EVA/60
not with us.
RNH C #107 EVg/60; #130 EVP/60
missed 27gm

third RW options:
Versteeg
Yakupov
Puljujarvi

5. +ve Goal diff PP/PK

 

[oilerbear]

The most unoriginal reply every time an Oiler fan rejects a hugely lopsided trade. So you think the Oiler's solution then is to accept every downgrade, cap dump or unproven prospect thrown their way because, hey!, they need to try something different than before?

Actually it just says they have put put any effort into actually looking at video; Analytics; Games lost; unit production. t
The kind of things you would expect from a teams mgmt.

 

[TheGhost]

And I have no issue with people saying this as forwards are often quicker to produce at the NHL so are easier to project.

And fwiw, in the HF polls, Pool was#4.... Provy was #6. There is not this giant tier gap between the 2 like others suggest(not you).

Reality is, if it was 1-1 trades, Philly likely doesn't trade Privy fig either due to team need. We have Giroux, Couts, Voracek and Simmonds for the top 6 in the positions that Pool and LD play. They don't fit a team need....whereas Provy potentially does. Just think, we had MDZ as our #1 LHD last year. Not ideal even though he is much improved.

And I will say it again before anyone gets confused, the OP is bad for Edmonton. In fact, if Philly added Konecny, they still say no. They finally look to have depth at C, and Pool can be in the top 6 RW since Yak has stalled. And with Klefbom on D...they have someone to play on the top pair. Then have Nurse on the way for the 2nd pairing.

Basically all that needs to be said in this thread, perfect post.

 

[Cyborg LeClair]

Lol at anyone touting Liljegren over Provorov. Wasnt Kylington also supposed to be the next best dman in the 2015 draft the year before? Lets let Liljegren have his draft year before going off half cocked

 

[Ricklongisland]

The op is clearly over valuing Stolarz in this scenario. Flyer fans would take this deal in a heart beat.

 

[Hammertyme]

I love the bloggers who use proxy shot numbers to assess players without regard to team mates performance (other tha shots),opposition, and defined roles. I guess they need to understand the game without really understanding the game.

Every cup winner has had on team:
1. HSCA D system coach:
TMac: Confirmed employment by PC at 2016 WHC

2. Top 10 HSCA Save% goalie
HSCA save% last 3 years:
1. Price .889
------------------- tear 1
2. Talbot; Griess #2 .886;
MacT arrranged trade Deadline 2015; Committed to assets with Petry trade. Sather offered PC the trade cause MacT was still with org and committed the assets.
Otherwise talbot goes to another team with a draft day better offer.
4. Holtby .885
------------------- tier 2
5. Halak: .882
6. jones .881
7. Eliott; Allen .880
------------------ tier 3
8. Crawford .878
9. Lundquist .877
------------------ tier 4
11. Schneider; Bernier .874
12. Mrazek .873
------------------ tier 5

the importance is?

based on league average 10.5 HSCA shots
#1 Price .889
10.5 X (1.000 - .889) = 1.17 GA/60
#2 Talbot .886
10.5 X (1.000 - .886) = 1.20 GA/60
#11 Bernier .874
10.5 X (1.000 - .874) = 1.32 GA/60
#26 Andersson .862
10.5 X (1.000 - .862) = 1.45 GA/60
#30 Reimer
10.5 X (1.000 - .860) = 1.46 GA/60
A 21.2 % variance in GA result from #1 to #30 HSCA save% goalie.

3.. 3+ top60 HSCA D. the more the better . As many in top 4
Dmen can give up 7.5 to 13.5 + HSCA shots.
6/13.5 = 44.2%

Talbot GA from HSCA shots:
7.50 HSCA shots 7.5 X (1.000-.886) = 0.86GA/60
13.50 HSCA shots 13.5 X (.114) = 1.54 GA/60; A
1.54 - .96 = .68 GA/60 difference. .68/1.54 = 44.2%
there is a 44.2% difference in GA/60 from the 6 HSCA shot difference from best to worst Dmen.


Larsson 7.80 HSCA Shots Top 10 -> not with team last year.
7.80 X .114 = .89 GA/60
Davidson top 30 8.68 HSCA shot - missed 31gm
8.68 X .114 = .99 GA/60
Klefbom 10.00 top 60 HSCA D - missed 51gm
10.00 X .114 = 1.14 GA/60
-------------------------------these 3 combined with Talbots HSCA save%
Sekera: forced to Play above comp ability last year.
vs 1st comp 12.11 HSCA SH/60
12.11 X .114 = 1.38 GA/60
vs 2nd comp or lower 7.58 HSCA SH/60
7.58 X .114 = .86 GA/60
Fayne 12.10
was Top 20 SA D from 10-11 to 14-15
The #1 HSCA d from 10-11 to 13-14 in NJ.

Nurse; Gryba; Reinhart; Schultz were all bottom 20 HSCA D.
13.5+
like Giordano; Faulk; Rielly; D. Hamilton.

4. 2 #1(top 90 fwd) or 3 lines (top 150) of EVG/EVA/EVP production forwards:
last 3 seasons Fwd rank:
Mcdavid C #1 EVp/60; #5 EVA/60; #9 EVG/60
missed 37gm
Draisatl C #25 EVA/60; #73 EVP/60
missed 10gm
Last yr 1st full season: #20 EVP/60; #24 EVA/60; #84 EVG/60
Eberle RW #46 EVG/60; #61 EVP/60
missed 13; played hurt gm 14-26
Pouliot LW #50 EVP/60; #54 EVA/60 #70 EVG/60
missed27gm
Maroon LW #61 EVA/60; #97 EVP/60
played 16gm for us
Kassian RW #61 EVG/60; #141 EVP/60
drying out!
Lucic LW #72 EVG/6; #78 EVP/60; #90 EVA/60
not with us.
RNH C #107 EVg/60; #130 EVP/60
missed 27gm

third RW options:
Versteeg
Yakupov
Puljujarvi

5. +ve Goal diff PP/PK