Post-Game Talk: Leafs defeat Habs 4-2

[weems]

Do not remember the play but nhl.com has the line on Mitch as:

0g 0a 0p +1 0pm 2sog 0hits 0blocks 0gva 0tka

1:20 mark

 

[The Missing Piece]

 

[ToneDog]

1:20 mark

I see him give away the puck 5 feet in front of Andy and go down to block it but Andy made the save. Yup was willing to sacrifice the body but not a good look giving away the puck in a high dangerous area.

 

[Warden of the North]

I love how our third goal was Hyman flubbing a pass, Kerfoot fanning on a shot and Micky almost missing the next.

Could not define those players better

 

[weems]

I see him give away the puck 5 feet in front of Andy and go down to block it but Andy made the save. Yup was willing to sacrifice the body but not a good look giving away the puck in a high dangerous area.

Yep its not a good look that he caughed the puck up but he quickly redeemed himself by making a good defensive play that possibly saved a goal.

He clearly blocks the shot (it hits his stick) and bounces right around Tatar but he fans on it and Fred covers it.

 

[Atomos2]

Dermott and Holl

"We don't always score goals, but when we do, we do in the same game."

Lol

 

[al secord]

That Jeff Petry kid would look good in an Oiler uniform.

 

[Twine Tickler]

I think last night was a perfect example of how the advanced metrics and standard stats can be misleading. By every metric, MTL had the better of the play, but I really did not see it that way. Similar to what Sheldon said post game, I thought that was one of, if not the best game they had played at limiting opposition HDCA. Naturalstattrick.com registered 10 HDSA which to me was high. Sure the shot totals were out of balance, but I am pretty sure the Leafs missed the net more this game than any this year. I saw people comparing this game to the last game of the Vancouver series, where Freddy stole us the W. Maybe I am alone on this, but I really did not see it this way. Through 40 mins, I thought offensively we were a touch out of sync, but the boys played a really strong defensive game.

 

[al secord]

That Holl goal was atrocious... that was Vesa Toskala level goaltending... that team looks like a team ready to eat it's own... angry team... the North will get better, Winterpeg is bound to be a tougher team, if PLD puts it together and the rest of the team plays up to it's potential, Winterpeg could be a juggernaut, Hellebyuck is probably the best goalie in our division, if he plays lights out like he has in the past we will have a tough 2nd half. I think Ottawa as bad as they are is always a tough game for the Leafs... we still have some hurdles to jump over on our way to the "C" word... so far we have played the lesser west and the least in the East. It's great that we are 11-2-1 but that is mostly against horrid western teams

No goalie can stop Hammer Time!

 

[Dekes For Days]

By every metric, MTL had the better of the play

Toronto had a higher xGF%.

 

[ShaneFalco]

The AM goalless streak continues to one game

 

[zeke]

I see him give away the puck 5 feet in front of Andy and go down to block it but Andy made the save. Yup was willing to sacrifice the body but not a good look giving away the puck in a high dangerous area.

Thought so too at first but when you watch it from all angles you can see that mitch blocked it.

 

[zeke]

I think last night was a perfect example of how the advanced metrics and standard stats can be misleading. By every metric, MTL had the better of the play, but I really did not see it that way. Similar to what Sheldon said post game, I thought that was one of, if not the best game they had played at limiting opposition HDCA. Naturalstattrick.com registered 10 HDSA which to me was high. Sure the shot totals were out of balance, but I am pretty sure the Leafs missed the net more this game than any this year. I saw people comparing this game to the last game of the Vancouver series, where Freddy stole us the W. Maybe I am alone on this, but I really did not see it this way. Through 40 mins, I thought offensively we were a touch out of sync, but the boys played a really strong defensive game.

Seems like a great example of the opposite tbh.

While the shot clock showed a lopsided advantage for the Habs, the advanced stats showed the Leafs actually created 52.4% of the expected goals in the game.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think last night was a perfect example of how the advanced metrics and standard stats can be misleading. By every metric, MTL had the better of the play, but I really did not see it that way. Similar to what Sheldon said post game, I thought that was one of, if not the best game they had played at limiting opposition HDCA. Naturalstattrick.com registered 10 HDSA which to me was high. Sure the shot totals were out of balance, but I am pretty sure the Leafs missed the net more this game than any this year. I saw people comparing this game to the last game of the Vancouver series, where Freddy stole us the W. Maybe I am alone on this, but I really did not see it this way. Through 40 mins, I thought offensively we were a touch out of sync, but the boys played a really strong defensive game.

I think a lot of people who rely on stats don't realize just how subjective many of these numbers are. Who decides if a scoring chance is high danger and how do they decide? It's going to vary from person to person and people aren't robots so even the same person isn't going to make every decision consistently.

High danger chances, wow that sounds really relevant and of course it is. But how reliable are the numbers really? Opinions vary.

 

[CincoHolio]

I'm sure MTL can play better against us as well, looking forward to the next game for sure. Then we have three against Ottawa, this schedule is a peach I tall ya. A Peach!!

It's peach but we still got the hardest matchup schedule in the North playing both Habs and Jets 10 a piece and only 9 against Ottawa.

 

[Not My Tempo]

I haven’t actually confirmed this particular example, but I did see some odd stuff last night with shots/shot attempts not being recorded for us.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It's peach but we still got the hardest matchup schedule in the North playing both Habs and Jets 10 a piece and only 9 against Ottawa.

No, we have by far the easiest schedule because we don't have to face the Toronto Maple Leafs.

 

[Not My Tempo]

I don’t particularly think stats like HD chances or even xGoals are useful game to game. There’s a lot of assumptions which go into those stats with the expectation that over the course of the season things stabilize but may not be true on a game to game basis.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Beautiful game won ugly with a top flight no mistake d core ... grinder game won by team playing tight and grinding it out ... luv it ... Zach OMG what a game ... a total beast all over ice and he dominated that game every time he was on da ice ... 1st game this year where he has been our best player by a mile ... and our defense was outstanding ... best games all year by both Dermy and Holl those guys showed their stuff ... da 3 stars were a joke likely picked by media no nothings

But still we can't have Freddy doing 2 soft ones every game against a good team ... that 1st one was at a terrible angle and was a simple keep stick on ice save ... the 2nd maybe ice was poor as he lost his balance sliding across net and an easy bread basket save turned into a tap in rebound ... but maybe it was bad ice that caused him to lose balance as opposed to lack of athletic ability

Coaching was amazing ... KISS ... stay with grind it out game plan ... luv it ... we now know we can grind out a win vs Habs

That said Price should have saved Holl shot with no screen and right over glove ... Dermy's was a screen so much harder but even then he did not even react at all ... Mik's goals was a total fluke but he deserved a fluker ... made us LOL when Kerfoot flubbed his shot but fan was a perfect pass to Mik OMG it was a laugher but nothing Price could do there

 

[zeke]

I haven’t actually confirmed this particular example, but I did see some odd stuff last night with shots/shot attempts not being recorded for us.

There were a few other leafs shots missed too.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Man Freddy loves to allow goals on the first remotely decent chance. What a deflating start that was.

Credit to the defense. Ignore the shot clock, Montreal didn't look dangerous until there were 5 minutes left in the game. They were firing weak shots from where Keefe wants them to shoot. Freddy did his job after that shaky start but the team made it easy for him.

 

[Fogelhund]

Big Win for the Leafs getting some offense from some unlikely characters with players like Dermott, Holl, and Mikheyev all going about a calendar year between goals.

Montreal is the only team really capable of challenging the Leafs for the Div lead and now Leafs have taken 2 of the first 10 games.

Don’t count out Winnipeg. I think they are right there as a top three.

 

[Mess]

I don’t particularly think stats like HD chances or even xGoals are useful game to game. There’s a lot of assumptions which go into those stats with the expectation that over the course of the season things stabilize but may not be true on a game to game basis.

Expected xGF% from Dermott, Holl and Mikehev prior & during game = 0
&
Actual GF% from Matthews, Tavares, Marner and Nylander after the game = 0

Odds of this occurring and resulting a Leafs WIN = ~ 1 in 100,000,000 & with Dermott and Holl both scoring 4v4 after offsetting penalties ~ 1 in gazillion.

The analytics would not accurately dictate the outcome in this one.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Seems like a great example of the opposite tbh.

While the shot clock showed a lopsided advantage for the Habs, the advanced stats showed the Leafs actually created 52.4% of the expected goals in the game.

Ah You are right, I must have only been looking at 5v5 numbers. Ya I really did not think this game was at all similar to the Vancouver game prior. Freddy let in a weak early one, and MTL kinda trapped it up with the 1-2-2. They weren't that effective at it, as we still were able to penetrate their zone, we just didn't find ways to sustain pressure. Once the game went to 4v4, the ice opened up, and TD made a good read, and used the screen to perfection. I thought the game was overall pretty even, but the better team won IMO

 

[BertCorbeau]

I haven’t actually confirmed this particular example, but I did see some odd stuff last night with shots/shot attempts not being recorded for us.

Yeah I noticed early on something wonky was going on with that.

Oh well whatever helps them feel better about themselves.