Post-Game Talk: Leafs defeat Habs 4-2

[Clark4Ever]

I think it's encouraging that we were able to outplay the Habs last night up and down the lineup despite missing key depth guys like Simmonds, Thornton, and Robertson.

The narrative going into the game was that the Habs had better depth at forward, and they were healthy as well.

 

[Warden of the North]

I think it's encouraging that we were able to outplay the Habs last night up and down the lineup despite missing key depth guys like Simmonds, Thornton, and Robertson.

The narrative going into the game was that the Habs had better depth at forward, and they were healthy as well.

Yes. Going to be interesting hearing what those in the media who jumped on the Habs bandwagon had to say about that.

Kinda sad Burke is gone from SN just for that reason

 

[Notsince67]

I don’t particularly think stats like HD chances or even xGoals are useful game to game. There’s a lot of assumptions which go into those stats with the expectation that over the course of the season things stabilize but may not be true on a game to game basis.

What would you suggest? Shots are measurable. X goals are really weighted shots. This is a pretty complex game where things like hits within x seconds of a shot can affect an outcome. Using stats as events maps to qualitatively dig deeper with observation is far better than having a conversation with a guy with his thumb up his ass who claims x player is crap through selected highlights the next day. I have cautioned many people from overusing stats but they do serve to fill memory holes and add a lot of insight.

 

[7even]

Habs fans really dumping on Price.

I don't really feel like it was his fault?

The Holl goal cannot go in

 

[LeafChief]

The Holl goal cannot go in

Holl cannon*

 

[Not My Tempo]

What would you suggest? Shots are measurable. X goals are really weighted shots. This is a pretty complex game where things like hits within x seconds of a shot can affect an outcome. Using stats as events maps to qualitatively dig deeper with observation is far better than having a conversation with a guy with his thumb up his ass who claims x player is crap through selected highlights the next day. I have cautioned many people from overusing stats but they do serve to fill memory holes and add a lot of insight.

Hmm that’s a good question on what I’d prefer, because I agree with you it’s still mostly better than the alternative.

I personally think I prefer more “retrospective” stats rather than predictive ones when trying to see how well a team played in a certain game. Things like Dom Luszczyszyn’s GSVA or even GAR/WAR are better retrospective stats than xG/Corsi are, which focus more on prediction.

That being said I haven’t kept up to date with most models/stats. I’m an actuary so I work with stats every day and this season I find hockey/off work life to be more enjoyable when I sit back and forget about the behind the scenes math lol

 

[willmma]

Toronto had a higher xGF%.

I don't know how to read these things, but Natural Stat trick Canadiens at 56.91% and Leafs at 43.09%.

Looks like the Habs were higher. What am I getting wrong here?

 

[Judas Tavares]

I'm too lazy to check the GDT and I'm mostly saying this tongue in cheek but.... how dramatic was this place when Anderson of all players scored that goal. I can imagine some folding the tent on the season... not actually but..... kind of actually.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Well thats our quarter point of the season. Lets see how T-bay,Boston and Vegas handle the games in hand. We have to want the best record for home ice advantage the entire playoffs with this depth and quality of players. I’ll just say it for everyone that thinks regular season doesn’t matter. It does.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I don't know how to read these things, but Natural Stat trick Canadiens at 56.91% and Leafs at 43.09%.
Looks like the Habs were higher. What am I getting wrong here?

That is 5v5 only. Leafs dominated 4v4 and special teams. Leafs were 56.4% overall.

 

[Notsince67]

Hmm that’s a good question on what I’d prefer, because I agree with you it’s still mostly better than the alternative.

I personally think I prefer more “retrospective” stats rather than predictive ones when trying to see how well a team played in a certain game. Things like Dom Luszczyszyn’s GSVA or even GAR/WAR are better retrospective stats than xG/Corsi are, which focus more on prediction.

That being said I haven’t kept up to date with most models/stats. I’m an actuary so I work with stats every day and this season I find hockey/off work life to be more enjoyable when I sit back and forget about the behind the scenes math lol

Yeah. I'm pretty skeptical over the predictive nature for a lot of reasons long term. Stats can tell you what a player should do but decisions are highly emotional and instinctive events. A fight, for example can turn up the energy of a team. It will always be unclear which team...whether the winner or loser of a fight responds. An ai system could definitely build a better hockey player but I am doubtful it can predict how a human one will respond with a large certainty.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'm too lazy to check the GDT and I'm mostly saying this tongue in cheek but.... how dramatic was this place when Anderson of all players scored that goal. I can imagine some folding the tent on the season... not actually but..... kind of actually.

It was embarrassing, just what you'd expect. I lost some brain cells and it was a good reminder of why I almost never look at this place during games. I swear every time we get scored on there's a bunch of people who freak out and insist that it should have been saved even if Andersen had no chance whatsoever of reacting in time.

Now last nights goal of course he could have stopped but it's not like it's the kind of shot that you can expect to be saved every time either. Sometimes goals go in that should be stopped most of the time and sometimes it's the other way around, I guess life's just too hard for some people to handle sometimes.

 

[Aashir]

Leafs are now tied at the top of the league fir even strength goals for.

But now the excuse is that 2 goals were on 4 v 4

 

[PromisedLand]

was just reading the montreal post game. It gives me so much happiness

 

[PromisedLand]

Guys I have a problem. I didn't watch and we won...... does this mean I am destined to not watch? Lol

Close your eyes and just listen to the commentary

 

[CanadasTeam]

was just reading the montreal post game. It gives me so much happiness

Today's mood

 

[PromisedLand]

Wait. Montreal plays Edmonton tomorrow.

Wierd.

I am gonna LMAO reading the tears in the habs gdt and pgt if oilers beat the scabs tonight lol

 

[MattySnipes]

 

[PromisedLand]

Montreal fans in their GDT suggesting firing Claude and I just feel like that is insane. He's getting great results from a roster with some large flaws. When you are that competitive with so little skill, the coach is doing well.

Julien is the last guy they should be blaming. Bergevin has ruined that team including some moronic draft picks.

Not that I am complaining .....

 

[Zybalto]

I am gonna LMAO reading the tears in the habs gdt and pgt if oilers beat the scabs tonight lol

So gonna catch the Habs on the tail end of a back to back and 3rd game in 4 nights?

Sweet.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Someone in last nights GDT said Bogosian asked Perry to fight after he decked Holl but Perry declined. Can anyone confirm they saw that exchange as well?

 

[PromisedLand]

I haven’t actually confirmed this particular example, but I did see some odd stuff last night with shots/shot attempts not being recorded for us.

mehhh who cares about those metrics; all i care about are the 2 points in the bags. they can keep their metrics we will keep the wins and the points

 

[29Potvin]

Someone in last nights GDT said Bogosian asked Perry to fight after he decked Holl but Perry declined. Can anyone confirm they saw that exchange as well?

I will see if i can find it, but you can see Bogo say something at the next faceoff in the Habs zone and Perry shakes his head and say no.

 

[horner]

Yes. Going to be interesting hearing what those in the media who jumped on the Habs bandwagon had to say about that.

Kinda sad Burke is gone from SN just for that reason

Second that.
There intermissions were beatable with Burke.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I haven’t actually confirmed this particular example, but I did see some odd stuff last night with shots/shot attempts not being recorded for us.

It was the same thing against the last game against Vancouver. They missed a number of really obvious shots and shot attempts that the Leafs had. It was not as large of a gap as advertised.