Value of: Lafreniere Offer Sheet (1 year at $6.4M)

[Habs Halifax]

So you just live in the past and ignore the upgrades other teams have made?

Your answer isn’t an answer on how you are better than Buffalo for example.

Montreal has the worst defense+ goaltending in the Atlantic, on top of having a bottom tier 1C.
That sounds like a recipe for success?

Habs were 2-1 against the Sabres last year. And no, I don't live in the past.

I'm saying 8-16 range as the pick. Recipe for success is making the playoffs but that's not my prediction.

 

[Brodeur]

Kinda want the Sens to offer $1 less than the 1st and 3rd comp, so it's only a 2nd.

As others stated, the Rangers would likely match that and get under the cap with a different move. Of note, they do have one pending arbitration case on August 4 so they'd get a second buyout window.

So it could be an exercise in futility. And worst case, you then become a target for a retaliatory offer sheet down the road.

 

[StreetHawk]

The trends extend before Covid. This comes down to if the Habs has just as much faith into Dach before last season vs Lafreniere today.

I don't think the 2nd rounder offer sheet works any more than the Aho offer sheet did. If that's the plan, just don't do it. Rangers match and figure out their cap IMO.

I get it, it seems risky but there are potential rewards to it. Am I worried about the pick turning into a lotto pick? Sure, I'd be lying if I told you no. However, this is an idea that really does make me think. Lafreniere does fit our core between Suzuki/Reinbacker (6 year age gap). 2024 1st makes it 7 year spread. Not like that is a huge problem but when Suuzki is 30, the 2024 1st is 23. I do like the stacked 6 year spread.

With Dach, you knew that the pick was #13 after the Romanov deal. Very different than an unprotected first for a non PO team.

Also can engage in trade talks. I'm guessing they did already before the Newhook trade. Drury probably not looking to move Laf, so you need to be aggressive to pluck him out of NYR. I just don't envision Montreal not being one of the bottom 3 teams in the East next season.

I think similar to Drouin, going to Montreal to try to break out for Laf is NOT going to be a good thing for him. Way too much pressure if he does that.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

There it is. The "everyone" bandwagon argument. I don't follow bandwagons. And it's a conversation I'm 50/50 on.

My context does make sense. You just don't like the idea and now your searching for attack reasons. Classic HF. You are better than that.

do you really feel "attacked" on internet forums ? i was just telling you its a horrible trade for the Habs because we're the worst team in our division and bottom 10 in the league im sorry that ur bad trade hurts ur feelings

 

[Habs Halifax]

do you really feel "attacked" on internet forums ? i was just telling you its a horrible trade for the Habs because we're the worst team in our division and bottom 10 in the league and yes its a bad trade for us im sorry that ur bad trade hurts ur feelings

Gravitating away from the conversation now. You're using trigger words that lead into stupid post wars.

I have my opinion and you have yours. You can feel comfortable with the bandwagon party and I get that. I just don't think it revels the truth more often than not.

I think this is a possible Romanov/13th/Dach type move and I do believe in Lafreniere just as much as I did with Dach last year. Yes, there are risks/rewards to this.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

This would be so asinine from the Habs point of view, NYR would laugh at this and run with the picks then flip them for better players to help them right now.

 

[Whalers Fan]

I have our pick somewhere in the 8-16 range. If not for all the injuries last year, we would have had a pick in the 8-12 range this past draft. .

Totally understand the risk but we are better than 5th last. It's not the true indication of where we are.

So, worst case scenario for the Habs under your projection would be they finish 8th and then win the draft lottery and move to #1 or #2 overall.

With the rebuild still in its early stages, I would not give up the team's own future 1st round picks without knowing where those picks will land. When the Dach deal was made, it (1) wasn't the Habs own pick, and (2) the team knew exactly where that pick fell.

 

[BB88]

Habs were 2-1 against the Sabres last year. And no, I don't live in the past.

I'm saying 8-16 range as the pick. Recipe for success is making the playoffs but that's not my prediction.

How don’t you live in the past if your reply is last years results?

Detroit has added DeBrincat, Compher, Holl and so on into their lineup.
Ottawa is getting a full year of Chychrun and upgraded their goaltending
Buffalo has one of the best young cores in the league that’s one year older, you have absolutely nothing to answer Thompson/Cozens/Tuch/Dahlin/Power core


But sure Montreals pick will be in the 10 range because they went 2-1 against Sabres last year, give me a break

 

[Kaiden Ghoul]

I'm not sure. I have a wider range. 8-16 pick. Are you aware of the context of all the injuries we had last year to key assets?

It's not unreasonable to assume growth from Suzuki, Caufield, Dach, Slaf, Guhle right? Getting full seasons from all of them? Then add vets like Monahan, Anderson, Matheson, Monty who also showed good performances but not full seasons?

I think it's not probable to expect the Habs to have that many injuries again and also expect our youth to digress.

The other angle is how many top 10 picks have turned into J Hughes? Seems to me that most top 10 picks are taking more time than usual lately. Lafreniere falls into that mix just like Dach did. It's basically taking on a guy at age 22 who has the same potential as someone who will be 18. Expecting the pick from 5-10 range to be better than Lafreniere on the ELC is a reach. Trends support that statement.



The young player that is penalized is likely pieces like Ylonen who might not clear waivers. Otherwise, we owe nothing to Gallagher, Armia, Dvorak, and Hoffman. We don't have to honor them with full time jobs. There is a way around this.

Lafreniere would be ahead of Ylonen, Farrell, Heineman types. Farrell and Heineman should be playing big minutes in Laval anyways.

Gally im not on your side, yes hes overpaid but hes broken and was underpaid for a long time, would have been better a higher cap hit with less years but Bergervin shit the bed, we cant put on him on waivers, and if he want to play, what can we do... just on his character he deserve a spot, à pricey one i admit

Right now we have Newhook Dach Suzu Cauf Money Dvorak Anderson Slaf on the top 9 if we buy Hoffman and unless im missing someone right now, so yes Laf have a place but him or Newhook will play with Dvo and probably Anderson or Slaf(God i hope not)

On paper thats tempting but its too much of a guess right now

 

[Habs Halifax]

With Dach, you knew that the pick was #13 after the Romanov deal. Very different than an unprotected first for a non PO team.

Also can engage in trade talks. I'm guessing they did already before the Newhook trade. Drury probably not looking to move Laf, so you need to be aggressive to pluck him out of NYR. I just don't envision Montreal not being one of the bottom 3 teams in the East next season.

I think similar to Drouin, going to Montreal to try to break out for Laf is NOT going to be a good thing for him. Way too much pressure if he does that.

I understand the risk/rewards to this and how it's not exactly like the Romaonv/13th/Dach move. I'm willing to talk about it and no, I'm not 100% for sure making that move. More like 50/50.

This is about exchanging the 24th 1st for Lafreniere who fits in between the 6 year age gap between Suzuki and Reinbacher. I believe in Lafreniere just as much as I did with Dach before last year.

I was less excited in the Newhook trade than I was with the Dach move. I recall several posters and Habs fans saying we should have kept the 13th pick (Nazar) and not trade it for Dach.

How don’t you live in the past if your reply is last years results?

Detroit has added DeBrincat, Compher, Holl and so on into their lineup.
Ottawa is getting a full year of Chychrun and upgraded their goaltending
Buffalo has one of the best young cores in the league that’s one year older, you have absolutely nothing to answer Thompson/Cozens/Tuch/Dahlin/Power core


But sure Montreals pick will be in the 10 range because they went 2-1 against Sabres last year, give me a break

Habs were 2-1 against the Sabres last year. Fluke I guess. I'm not repeating myself. You don't like my replies but those are my opinions.

 

[Bouboumaster]

I can see Lafreniere signing the 6+ offer sheet, I do not see him signing one that starts with a 4

Lol
Lafrenière would 100% be all over an offershit of 4+ because he ain't getting 4+ with the Rangers, because he doesn't deserves it

If a team is crazy enough to give him that or worse, more, you should take the pick(s)

 

[Habs Halifax]

So, worst case scenario for the Habs under your projection would be they finish 8th and then win the draft lottery and move to #1 or #2 overall.

With the rebuild still in its early stages, I would not give up the team's own future 1st round picks without knowing where those picks will land. When the Dach deal was made, it (1) wasn't the Habs own pick, and (2) the team knew exactly where that pick fell.

Yes, there are risks/rewards to this. I think this is multi layered. Some don't believe in Lafreniere and some do. I believe in him like I did with Dach before last year.

Of course you don't do this if you don't believe Lafreniere can't be a 60+ pts forward.

Chances the 8-11 range pick wins the lottery is slim. Very slim. Lafreniere was 1st OA himself.

Gally im not on your side, yes hes overpaid but hes broken and was underpaid for a long time, would have been better a higher cap hit with less years but Bergervin shit the bed, we cant put on him on waivers, and if he want to play, what can we do... just on his character he deserve a spot, à pricey one i admit

Right now we have Newhook Dach Suzu Cauf Money Dvorak Anderson Slaf on the top 9 if we buy Hoffman and unless im missing someone right now, so yes Laf have a place but him or Newhook will play with Dvo and probably Anderson or Slaf(God i hope not)

On paper thats tempting but its too much of a guess right now

I understand how stuff like this ages. Lets bookmark it and re visit it next year when we know where the Habs pick and what kind of season Lafreniere has.

It could be a genius idea or a horrible one. I've seen this go two ways many times.

 

[sxvnert]

Laf is a bust. Habs should stay the course.

 

[mydnyte]

Do the Rangers match? 1st and 3rd is the compensation.

What pick do we think the Habs will have for the 2024 draft? 5-16 range? Seems like a similar cost to what we paid to acquire Dach to me. Basically a KK type offer sheet and a handshake deal on what the extension. I find that part tricky because if he breaks out, he won't take $4.82M for 8 years.

Risk/Rewards are tricky on this one.

Also, would other fans consider this move?

isnt Montreal already over the cap ...where they going to fid an extra 6+mil?

 

[Habs Halifax]

isnt Montreal already over the cap ...where they going to fid an extra 6+mil?

We have $8.8M in cap space with Price on LTIR.

 

[BB88]

I understand the risk/rewards to this and how it's not exactly like the Romaonv/13th/Dach move. I'm willing to talk about it and no, I'm not 100% for sure making that move. More like 50/50.

This is about exchanging the 24th 1st for Lafreniere who fits in between the 6 year age gap between Suzuki and Reinbacher. I believe in Lafreniere just as much as I did with Dach before last year.

I was less excited in the Newhook trade than I was with the Dach move. I recall several posters and Habs fans saying we should have kept the 13th pick (Nazar) and not trade it for Dach.



Habs were 2-1 against the Sabres last year. Fluke I guess. I'm not repeating myself. You don't like my replies but those are my opinions.

Well because how is that an answer for next year?

You say you don’t live in the past yet the only thing you can bring up is last years results.

Detroit added Debrincat, ”don’t care we went 2-1 against Buffalo”

Montreal has the worst defense+ goaltending in the division and a bottom tier 1C, ” don’t care we went 2-1 against Buffalo”

But hey believe me we will be good next year!!

Great points you are making here

 

[Habs Halifax]

Laf is a bust. Habs should stay the course.

If you think he is a bust, that makes logical sense to think this is a horrible idea. I don't think he is a bust though.

 

[mydnyte]

We have $8.8M in cap space with Price on LTIR.

my bad, i though capfriendly changed it so ltir was already accounted for

 

[kgboomer]

Suzuki missing 6 weeks or so with an injury, and this team will finish in the bottom 5 again. No thanks.

If it goes thru, Rangers' fans would have a lot of fun tracking Habs defeats though. Like the Avs fans following the Sens after the Duchene trade. And like the Sens fans following the Sharks after the Karlsson trade.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

I'm not sure. I have a wider range. 8-16 pick. Are you aware of the context of all the injuries we had last year to key assets?

It's not unreasonable to assume growth from Suzuki, Caufield, Dach, Slaf, Guhle right? Getting full seasons from all of them? Then add vets like Monahan, Anderson, Matheson, Monty who also showed good performances but not full seasons?

I think it's not probable to expect the Habs to have that many injuries again and also expect our youth to digress.

The other angle is how many top 10 picks have turned into J Hughes? Seems to me that most top 10 picks are taking more time than usual lately. Lafreniere falls into that mix just like Dach did. It's basically taking on a guy at age 22 who has the same potential as someone who will be 18. Expecting the pick from 5-10 range to be better than Lafreniere on the ELC is a reach. Trends support that statement.



The young player that is penalized is likely pieces like Ylonen who might not clear waivers. Otherwise, we owe nothing to Gallagher, Armia, Dvorak, and Hoffman. We don't have to honor them with full time jobs. There is a way around this.

Lafreniere would be ahead of Ylonen, Farrell, Heineman types. Farrell and Heineman should be playing big minutes in Laval anyways.

Well you do you man. It's good to have an optimistic outlook. Even healthy I don't think MTL is better than WAS, STL, VAN, BUF, tier types of teams. Them finishing bottom 10 next year shouldn't be a surprise if it happens.

I just picked a random year of 2019. Trevor Zegras was 9OA. Evan Bouchard 10OA in 2018. Casey Mitts 8OA in 2017. Sergachev 9OA in 2016... so ummm yeah... you can get good players in the 8-10 range for sure.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

Gravitating away from the conversation now. You're using trigger words that lead into stupid post wars.

I have my opinion and you have yours. You can feel comfortable with the bandwagon party and I get that. I just don't think it revels the truth more often than not.

I think this is a possible Romanov/13th/Dach type move and I do believe in Lafreniere just as much as I did with Dach last year. Yes, there are risks/rewards to this.

Habs were stacked at LD and we had nothing at center so trading Romanov + for Dach made sense but not our 2024 1st round pick when we're the worst team in the Atlantic and bottom 10 in the league our 1st round pick should be off the table in any trade atleast until we know where we are drafting

I do believe in Suzuki,Caufield,Dach and Guhle some other youngsters might impress also but we're not ready to be trading 1st round picks yet

 

[Habs Halifax]

Well because how is that an answer for next year?

You say you don’t live in the past yet the only thing you can bring up is last years results.

Detroit added Debrincat, ”don’t care we went 2-1 against Buffalo”

Montreal has the worst defense+ goaltending in the division and a bottom tier 1C, ” don’t care we went 2-1 against Buffalo”

But hey believe me we will be good next year!!

Great points you are making here

Your... "Montreal has the worst defense+ goaltending in the division and a bottom tier 1C, ” don’t care we went 2-1 against Buffalo”"

Does not trump

My... Habs had a huge amount of injuries to key assets last year and our youth is improving

All you are doing is being condescending. It's opinion vs opinion. I do think our pick is 8-16 range. Deal with it. We are just repeating things now in case you didn't notice.

Well you do you man. It's good to have an optimistic outlook. Even healthy I don't think MTL is better than WAS, STL, VAN, BUF, tier types of teams. Them finishing bottom 10 next year shouldn't be a surprise if it happens.

I just picked a random year of 2019. Trevor Zegras was 9OA. Evan Bouchard 10OA in 2018. Casey Mitts 8OA in 2017. Sergachev 9OA in 2016... so ummm yeah... you can get good players in the 8-10 range for sure.

Could be 8-16. It's a wide range. Is 6-12 better for you?

I understand how this can age in two different ways. This idea makes me think and yes, there are risks/rewards.

I'm not saying you can't get good players. But listing random ones does not quantify it correctly. I think we would have to spend more than 5-10 min's and look at 3-5 drafts and see how it looks overall. How many guys are better than Lafreniere. I personally don't have the time but if someone else does, please share. Once again, it's not a 5-10 min task.

 

[Avs9296]

Laf is worth less than half that amount. Would be incredibly stupid by Montreal.

 

[FerrisRox]

The trends extend before Covid. This comes down to if the Habs has just as much faith into Dach before last season vs Lafreniere today.

You keep saying this as if they are somehow similar, they are not.

Just because you have decided where the Canadiens draft pick will be next June doesn't suddenly make it so.

The Canadiens knew *exactly* what they were surrendering when they acquired Kirby Dach.

The Canadiens, despite your claims, don't have the faintest idea where their draft pick will be next June and I find it impossible to believe that anyone in their front office would be dumb enough to surrender that pick for Alex Lafrienierre, especially once you factor in the qualifying offer.

You have repeatedly mentioned Kotkaniemi's "hand shake arrangement" something we have absolutely no reason to believe existed, but even if it did, are you seriously suggesting a multi-million dollar sports organization give up a valuable draft pick in order to acquire a player they have a "handshake deal" with to extend?

What if Lafreinerre gets caught with two prostitutes and crashes his car into Ben's Smoked Meat? Do you honour this "handshake?"

What if Lafriennere scored 30 goals and 70 points, do you think he's gonna honour whatever they come up with next week for his extension?

What if he arrives in Montreal, but finds having family and friends around a distraction and doesn't want to stay with the team? Giving him a $6 million contract and requiring that kind of qualifying offer gives him an enormous amount of power over negotiations. And you want to give up a 1st round draft pick in order for the organization to put themselves in this quandary?

And for what? Alex Lafriennere?

No thanks.

 

[FerrisRox]

No you dont thats why everyone is telling you its a bad trade

This seems to be his "thing" on the main boards. It's like he's on a mission to make Canadiens fans look silly.

He makes some proclamation and when he gets tons of people disagreeing with him (both fans of the Canadiens and not fans of the Canadiens) he simply repeats himself over and over again as if saying it again might make people agree with him.

It's bizarre. Surely you remember all of his nonsense about Sean Monahan and a 1st round pick and pretending that Monahan might be as valuable as O'Reilly because he claimed O'Reilly's foot injury was a big wild card and teams may not not what they were getting.

He said this over and over and over again... while Monahan himself was injured. He must have repeated this diatribe 20+ times and nobody agreed with him, so he did more, and more, and more and you can already see in this thread he's saying the same shit over and over again.

Somehow, because the Canadiens had injuries last year, they are going to be a great improved team this year. If you don't agree with that, he will say it again, and again, and again and again.