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Value of: Lafreniere Offer Sheet (1 year at $6.4M)

HabbyGuy

HabbyGuy

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Habs Halifax said:
It has nothing to do with language. This is about believing in Lafreniere next season like we did with Dach before last season.

This is a risks/rewards conversation.
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I agree that Lafreniere would be a guy the habs should target. He fits in with their timeline, and Hughes MO of going after younger players that haven't reached their potential yet. Also believe Lafreniere could benefit from MSL's development process of just letting a player play. To help bring out what what made him so special as a prospect in the first place.

In a nut shell, Alex is worth taking a shot on for the habs. However an offersheet is not the right way to go about it, it's far too risky a proposition with where the habs sit right now in their building stage. That pick seems earmarked for at minimal a top 8 choice, nevermind what would happen if they won the lottery.

If the habs want Laf, they will need to trade for him instead.
 
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Habs Halifax

Habs Halifax

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Tanknation said:
Thats because KK sucked ass and they still over paid him by huge amount at the time of signing.
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I thought it was aggressive too but KK was always a long term prospect. Who knows where he tops out at. I think he can improve more but it's possible he doesn't. I felt that he improved gradually as the season moved along last year.

Risks/Rewards for moves like this for sure. You either believe in the player or you don't.

Crazy Cizikas said:
Your team hired Dominic Dusharme for a reason. It’s not because he’s a great coach. There’s a xenophobic directive of the team. And it’s seriously f***ing up your growth. But keep on pretending it doesn’t exist.
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I'm not continuing the language narrative. Sorry

Tanknation said:
Or I believe career AHLer's played way over their heads for a roster spot and job last year.
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Yeah, young players do work hard to improve. I don't understand your point. If not for all the injuries, we would have not had a team with over half AHL'ers for 2/3 of the season.
 
GIN ANTONIC

GIN ANTONIC

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Habs Halifax said:
Your... "Montreal has the worst defense+ goaltending in the division and a bottom tier 1C, ” don’t care we went 2-1 against Buffalo”"

Does not trump

My... Habs had a huge amount of injuries to key assets last year and our youth is improving

All you are doing is being condescending. It's opinion vs opinion. I do think our pick is 8-16 range. Deal with it. We are just repeating things now in case you didn't notice.



Could be 8-16. It's a wide range. Is 6-12 better for you?

I understand how this can age in two different ways. This idea makes me think and yes, there are risks/rewards.

I'm not saying you can't get good players. But listing random ones does not quantify it correctly. I think we would have to spend more than 5-10 min's and look at 3-5 drafts and see how it looks overall. How many guys are better than Lafreniere. I personally don't have the time but if someone else does, please share. Once again, it's not a 5-10 min task.
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Ya, I'd say 6-12 is a pretty reasonable outlook. Having them as high as 16 says that they would be fighting for a playoff spot which they shouldn't be in the position to do. They flat out are not better than TOR, BOS, TB, OTT, BUF, CAR, NJ, NYR, NYI, PIT. I'd be doubtful on WAS, but I could see higher than PHI and maybe DET but they feel like a higher floor team. They should be better than CLB but who knows. Either way, very clearly bottom 3-4 in the East. And out west they should be ahead of CHI, ANA, ARI, SJS. So the 6-8 range feels right to me. 10 is possible and 12 would be ambitious.

Of course I was cherry picking good players in those drafts but my point is that every year in that 8-10 range you very likely have ability to get someone high quality. Whether you pick them or not is another story but it's still at a level where good talent is available. There's not some huge drop off where it doesn't matter between 8 and 28.

Like I said, I would offer the $4.2 AAV and keep it to a 2nd. MTL should be in a position to be giving up a 5-10 pick which is very possible for next year.
 
Habs Halifax

Habs Halifax

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GIN ANTONIC said:
Ya, I'd say 6-12 is a pretty reasonable outlook. Having them as high as 16 says that they would be fighting for a playoff spot which they shouldn't be in the position to do. They flat out are not better than TOR, BOS, TB, OTT, BUF, CAR, NJ, NYR, NYI, PIT. I'd be doubtful on WAS, but I could see higher than PHI and maybe DET but they feel like a higher floor team. They should be better than CLB but who knows. Either way, very clearly bottom 3-4 in the East. And out west they should be ahead of CHI, ANA, ARI, SJS. So the 6-8 range feels right to me. 10 is possible and 12 would be ambitious.

Of course I was cherry picking good players in those drafts but my point is that every year in that 8-10 range you very likely have ability to get someone high quality. Whether you pick them or not is another story but it's still at a level where good talent is available. There's not some huge drop off where it doesn't matter between 8 and 28.

Like I said, I would offer the $4.2 AAV and keep it to a 2nd. MTL should be in a position to be giving up a 5-10 pick which is very possible for next year.
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I think the Rangers match if it's the 2nd/$4.2M and the Habs don't have our 2nd.

6-12 is probably a safer bet. That's fair. Most are saying 7-9 or 10-12 on our boards. There is a poll up that I created. 50 ish votes so far.

I am very curious to see where the Habs finish and also what Lafreniere does in his 4th season at age 22. I doubt the Habs make that move. I'm 50/50 on it myself.
 

cyris

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Habs Halifax said:
Habs were 5th last in the NHL with historic injuries. If not for those injuries, we would have picked 8-12 range. Add the one year of growth from our youth and I have us in the 8-16 range with our pick.

It's not far off from the Romanov+ for 13th for Dach trade. Would you have more faith in Lafreniere today vs where Dach was before last season?

Risky yes. But the Habs will be in the mix of that bottom 8-16 range IMO. I think we are going to be moving up, not down.
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Just an alternative way to look at it. Yeah even with all the injuries the Habs were only the 5th worst team.
But that was in a season multiple teams were tanking for a potentially generational prospect.
Maybe the Habs play to the same level or even improve a bit and still finish just as low or even lower in the standings because not as many teams are trying to be terrible.

The year the Leafs finished dead last and drafted Matthews they actually finished with more points than the previous year when they were 4th last in the McDavid draft.
 

thehoffs

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Habs Halifax said:
Do the Rangers match? 1st and 3rd is the compensation.

What pick do we think the Habs will have for the 2024 draft? 5-16 range? Seems like a similar cost to what we paid to acquire Dach to me. Basically a KK type offer sheet and a handshake deal on what the extension. I find that part tricky because if he breaks out, he won't take $4.82M for 8 years.

Risk/Rewards are tricky on this one.

Also, would other fans consider this move?
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All depends on the team. If it’s a team most likely to miss the playoffs I think the rangers would take the 1st.

Need to remember unprotected first and Montreal it could end up being 1st overall.

Montreal is a bottom 5 team in the East without a doubt.

Personally I think Columbus should make an offer like this.

Problem is a 1 year deal won’t work as the risk to the team offering it is just incredible. Team is stuck offering qualifying offers which gets risky.
 
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bernmeister

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GIN ANTONIC said:
Rangers would not match but that's a dumb move on MTL's part. They aren't going to be good next year so that 1st could end up pretty high. Do it in the $4.2 range for 2-3 years for the lower compensation slot and see if Rangers match that. Still think they pass.
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too biz to go thru all pages of this now

to answer yr ? ^ yes Rs match lower #;
prob match higher # IF they reasonably believe they have a deal to flip him after

atm, Oil could put best package for him imo
will address this when I have time
 

MtoD

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bernmeister said:
too biz to go thru all pages of this now

to answer yr ? ^ yes Rs match lower #;
prob match higher # IF they reasonably believe they have a deal to flip him after

atm, Oil could put best package for him imo
will address this when I have time
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Can't trade him for 1 year after matching an offer sheet

(not that CBA restrictions have mattered to you in the past...)
 
olli

olli

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Why would Montreal give up a likely top 10 first for Lafreniere who hasn’t shown he’s with more than a late first at the very most.
 
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Djp

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Habs Halifax said:
I don't think we are better than most teams. A pick from 8-16 is not better than most teams. I don't think the Habs would have had the 5th pick if we didn't have all those injuries last year. I think our pick in this past draft would have been 8-12 range if the injuries didn't pile up like it did. Expecting that to happen again and also for our youth to not improve is not probable. It was about 1/3 of the season when the injuries started to pile up and we were floating around a .500 record at that point.

A lot of different things can happen. I don't see the Habs in the bottom 5 again. More like 6-12 or 8-16 will be our pick. And the other angle is does Lafreniere show his potential next year like Dach did this past year. I guess most fans are deflated on Lafreniere and are not expecting him to break out at all. If you think that, then the risks/rewards don't make sense.

I get it, a potential lottery pick. This to me is about the potential of who that guy will be with the pick and how that compares to Lafreniere from age 22+. I personally believe in Lafreniere like I did with Dach and I like how he fits inbetween Suzuki and Reinbacher which is a 6 year age core gap. I get how some do not have faith in Lafreniere.
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How I group teams as of now…..

east

playoff…Tampa, Toronto, Carolina

playoff bubble buffalo, Ottawa, Florida, New Jersey, rangers, islanders, pittsburgh, Washington , Detroit

unknown. Boston

competitive but missing playoffs snd deadline sellers— montreal, Columbus

no chance of playoffs Philadelphia

west

playoffs colorado, vegas, Edmonton

playoff bubble LA, Calgary, Dallas, nashville, minnesota vsncouver , Seattle

unknown Winnipeg

competitive but missing playoffs/ sellers at deadline — arizona, St. Louis

no chance of playoffs chicago, Anaheim, San Jose
 
McJedi

McJedi

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NYRs would accept the two high picks and run. Same thing Habs did with KK.

And hopefully not turn around and blow those picks to acquire a bad contract like Dvorak.
 
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