Value of: Lafreniere Offer Sheet (1 year at $6.4M)

[Boss Man Hughes]

Also, Habs were 2-1 against the Sabres last year (head/head). Sens, Wings, Sabres are not teams I would peg as sure shot teams ahead of us.

This is how I see it.
* Canes, Rangers, Lightning, Leafs are in
* Panthers and Devils are also likely in
* Pens and Islanders are likely ahead of the Caps & Bruins.
* Habs are in the mix with the Sabres, Sens, Wings and also the Caps and Bruins.

Could be the 8th pick or could be the 16th pick. I do expect us to be in that range. Difference in talent from 5 to 13 was Reinbacher vs Benson in the last "deep" draft.

We traded Romaonv for 13th for Dach. I see this as a similar move.... if we believe in Lafreniere as much as we did with Dach before last season.



The idea is exactly what the Canes did with KK. Both offer sheet and extention. Might not be a 8 year extension but something around what KK got.

I wouldn't do it and neither would HuGo. At this point they won't trade a 1st round draft pick until they know where it will fall. When Habs are a contender and they think a 1st will get them a missing piece they would likely do it. I would offer a top 10 protected 1st and a 3rd in a trade, as others have said, but not an unknown pick.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I wouldn't do it and neither would HuGo. At this point they won't trade a 1st round draft pick until they know where it will fall. When Habs are a contender and they think a 1st will get them a missing piece they would likely do it. I would offer a top 10 protected 1st and a 3rd in a trade, as others have said, but not an unknown pick.

You may be right but don't speak for HuGo. Speak for yourself.

There are risks/rewards to this yes. Risky to trade a pick if we stall to move up yes. However, the difference between 5 vs 13 in the last draft was Reinbacher and Benson.... in a deep draft.

At some point, you got to believe in the Habs potential with our youth. I see this as a similar risk/reward as it was for Romanov/13th/Dach trade. My assessment towards Dach before last season is similar to where Lafreniere is today. Would you agree with that?

6 year age gap between Suzuki and Reinbacher. Lafreniere would be in the middle of that. Not saying we should be going all in at trading futures but the 2024 picks makes it 7 year age spread to Suzuki. When Suzuki is 30, the 2024 1st is 23. IMO, Lafraniere fits this core more than the 2024 1st does.

 

[Guffman]

Habs lost out on franchophone PLD and now they are going to harrass another fan base regarding their francophone.

If Montreal is dumb enough to make that offer sheet, I think the Rangers would easily let him go and be happy with a likely early first round pick next year.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Kinda want the Sens to offer $1 less than the 1st and 3rd comp, so it's only a 2nd.

 

[FerrisRox]

Do the Rangers match? 1st and 3rd is the compensation.

What pick do we think the Habs will have for the 2024 draft? 5-16 range? Seems like a similar cost to what we paid to acquire Dach to me. Basically a KK type offer sheet and a handshake deal on what the extension. I find that part tricky because if he breaks out, he won't take $4.82M for 8 years.

Risk/Rewards are tricky on this one.

Also, would other fans consider this move?

I would throw up if the Canadiens did this.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

Horrible for Montreal

We're the worst team in the Atlantic why are we trading our first

 

[playasRus]

4.29M X 4 years? Long enough to make NYR wonder re: cap, short enough that if he busts they can buyout/bury/carry through the tank years.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Kinda want the Sens to offer $1 less than the 1st and 3rd comp, so it's only a 2nd.

That would be $4.290124M. I think the Rangers match that and figure their cap out. $6.4M makes it much more difficult and a contract offer Lafreniere won't decline.

 

[Kaiden Ghoul]

I really like how Monty improved over and over again since we acquired him. He was a huge piece for team Canada at the WC too. Allen got 42 games last year and Monty got 40. I expect the split to be more like 55/27 in favor of Monty this year.

D was young. You are bringing up good context others have failed to mention. They are still young but I expect them to be even better than what they were last year. Matheson is a bit of a wild card in that mix and for our PP. Not many realize he had 28 pts with 7 goals in 34 games (Jan 17th to end of season). Savard is Savard. Guhle in a full season will surprise people. Barron & Harris should be at least as good as they were last year.

Up front, Suzuki and Caufield are who they are and they still stand to improve. The wild cards are Dach, Slaf, Monahan, Anderson, RHP, Newhook.

I don't expect playoffs but I do expect less injuries which would mean a better finish than 5th last. I comfortable saying our pick will be 8-16 range. Wide range but expecting the Habs to be bottom 5 again is a reach.



I don't think the Rangers match either

Would the Habs actually do it? Probably not but it's not an automatic no for me. Something worth pondering about.

I do think Lafreniere would take that deal. He would get tons of higher usage in Montreal with MSL.

I see them also in that range, but all it take is injury,lucky season à la Vejdemo(the Ari goalie) and some team can surprise, SJ ANA ARI PHI CHI are the only team i can see who will be lower than us, the rest who knows, we way have lotto luck also

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

I have our pick somewhere in the 8-16 range. If not for all the injuries last year, we would have had a pick in the 8-12 range this past draft. .

Totally understand the risk but we are better than 5th last. It's not the true indication of where we are.

Ehhh... I dunno. To me MTL is a bottom 10 team pretty solidly. I think 8-10 range is pretty realistic. Could be better than Philly and should still be better than Cbus but don't see the Habs leaping over anyone else in the East. Should be better than Arizona but I'd still have STL, VAN, ahead.

MTL should be better next year, but injuries or not I don't see draft position changing a ton. More points... sure, but don't know if they get to that low-mid 80s range where they would be getting into the 12-15 draft position. I'd hang on to the 1st round pick.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Horrible for Montreal

We're the worst team in the Atlantic why are we trading our first

I don't think it's horrible and I explained it in previous posts. Do you think 5th last reflects their true potential with all those injuries?

I think it's more probable we finish 6-10 than 1-5. My actual range is 8-16 and that's less of a reach than thinking we will have a top 5 lottery pick IMO.

This is about risks/reward. Very close to Romanov/13th/Dach trade. If you have less faith in Lafreniere today vs Dach before last season, you don't make the move. If have the same faith, it's not a "horrible" narraive. All depends on how you see Lafreniere from age 22+

I see them also in that range, but all it take is injury,lucky season à la Vejdemo(the Ari goalie) and some team can surprise, SJ ANA ARI PHI CHI are the only team i can see who will be lower than us, the rest who knows, we way have lotto luck also

I'm 50/50 on this idea. Some others will think I'm drooling to make this move because I'm active talking about it. Not the case.

This is worth pondering about and it's close to the Romaonv/13th/Dach trade last off season IMO. I do think our pick will be 8-16 range.

Anybody have context into how many top 10 picks turned into J Hughes over the last 4 drafts? The trends I have seen is it's taking more time for guys to reach potential... like Dach and Lafreniere.

 

[Kaiden Ghoul]

I don't think it's horrible and I explained it in previous posts. Do you think 5th last reflects their true potential with all those injuries?

I think it's more probable we finish 6-10 than 1-5. My actual range is 8-16 and that's less of a reach than thinking we will have a top 5 lottery pick IMO.

This is about risks/reward. Very close to Romanov/13th/Dach trade. If you have less faith in Lafreniere today vs Dach before last season, you don't make the move. If have the same faith, it's not a "horrible" narraive. All depends on how you see Lafreniere from age 22+



I'm 50/50 on this idea. Some others will think I'm drooling to make this move because I'm active talking about it. Not the case.

This is worth pondering about and it's close to the Romaonv/13th/Dach trade last off season IMO. I do think our pick will be 8-16 range.

Honestly i think we can shut the iea of adding roster player until some are gone, if we get Laf some young player will be penalized, would rather see what we have with Newhook Slaf etc before takin a good risk with Laf and our first

 

[Habs Halifax]

Ehhh... I dunno. To me MTL is a bottom 10 team pretty solidly. I think 8-10 range is pretty realistic. Could be better than Philly and should still be better than Cbus but don't see the Habs leaping over anyone else in the East. Should be better than Arizona but I'd still have STL, VAN, ahead.

MTL should be better next year, but injuries or not I don't see draft position changing a ton. More points... sure, but don't know if they get to that low-mid 80s range where they would be getting into the 12-15 draft position. I'd hang on to the 1st round pick.

I'm not sure. I have a wider range. 8-16 pick. Are you aware of the context of all the injuries we had last year to key assets?

It's not unreasonable to assume growth from Suzuki, Caufield, Dach, Slaf, Guhle right? Getting full seasons from all of them? Then add vets like Monahan, Anderson, Matheson, Monty who also showed good performances but not full seasons?

I think it's not probable to expect the Habs to have that many injuries again and also expect our youth to digress.

The other angle is how many top 10 picks have turned into J Hughes? Seems to me that most top 10 picks are taking more time than usual lately. Lafreniere falls into that mix just like Dach did. It's basically taking on a guy at age 22 who has the same potential as someone who will be 18. Expecting the pick from 5-10 range to be better than Lafreniere on the ELC is a reach. Trends support that statement.

Honestly i think we can shut the iea of adding roster player until some are gone, if we get Laf some young player will be penalized, would rather see what we have with Newhook Slaf etc before takin a good risk with Laf and our first

The young player that is penalized is likely pieces like Ylonen who might not clear waivers. Otherwise, we owe nothing to Gallagher, Armia, Dvorak, and Hoffman. We don't have to honor them with full time jobs. There is a way around this.

Lafreniere would be ahead of Ylonen, Farrell, Heineman types. Farrell and Heineman should be playing big minutes in Laval anyways.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

I don’t wanna live in a world where Lafreniere makes $6.4M and Malkin makes $6.1M.

 

[StreetHawk]

The other angle is how many top 10 picks have turned into J Hughes? Seems to me that most top 10 picks are taking more time than usual lately. Lafreniere falls into that mix just like Dach did.

2020 was the Covid year. Lots of players lost playing time and training time in 2020-2021 year. So, no surprise anyone drafted from 2020's is a bit behind.

Still, talking about someone you have to pay a good size amount to in order to have NYR not match. If you are a PO like Carolina was, it makes sense to do the offer. Montreal, I don't think anyone has them making the PO.

If they want to OS Laf, better to make a deal with Win to re-acquire your 2024 2nd and try something just to the top of the 2nd round compensation.

 

[Habs Halifax]

2020 was the Covid year. Lots of players lost playing time and training time in 2020-2021 year. So, no surprise anyone drafted from 2020's is a bit behind.

Still, talking about someone you have to pay a good size amount to in order to have NYR not match. If you are a PO like Carolina was, it makes sense to do the offer. Montreal, I don't think anyone has them making the PO.

If they want to OS Laf, better to make a deal with Win to re-acquire your 2024 2nd and try something just to the top of the 2nd round compensation.

The trends extend before Covid. This comes down to if the Habs has just as much faith into Dach before last season vs Lafreniere today.

I don't think the 2nd rounder offer sheet works any more than the Aho offer sheet did. If that's the plan, just don't do it. Rangers match and figure out their cap IMO.

I get it, it seems risky but there are potential rewards to it. Am I worried about the pick turning into a lotto pick? Sure, I'd be lying if I told you no. However, this is an idea that really does make me think. Lafreniere does fit our core between Suzuki/Reinbacker (6 year age gap). 2024 1st makes it 7 year spread. Not like that is a huge problem but when Suuzki is 30, the 2024 1st is 23. I do like the stacked 6 year spread.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

I don't think it's horrible and I explained it in previous posts. Do you think 5th last reflects their true potential with all those injuries?

Yes we are the worst team in the Atlantic and should be top 10 bottom its horrible for the Habs

 

[Habs Halifax]

Yes we are the worst team in the Atlantic and should be top 10 bottom its horrible for the Habs

Flawed context and you are ignoring the injury factor. If you believe in this young core, you will believe my statement that we finish with a pick in the 8-16 range. Otherwise, you should probably be hoping for the Habs to do a Hawks rebuild and trade Dach and Debrincat away and keep tanking until you get the next Bedard.

If not for the injuries last year, we don't pick 5. We are in the 8-12 mix.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

why the hell would we do this can we stop man

Flawed context and you are ignoring the injury factor. If you believe in this young core, you will believe my statement that we finish with a pick in the 8-16 range. Otherwise, you should probably be hoping for the Habs to do a Hawks rebuild and trade Dach and Debrincat away and keep tanking until you get the next Bedard.

If not for the injuries last year, we don't pick 5. We are in the 8-12 mix.

Yes so maybe we should wish for injuries again next year because we need some talent from the draft , we don't need to accelerate the rebuild we are shooting ourselves in the foot if we do that

 

[MichaelFarrell]

If you are a team looking to spend that much on Laf, you’d better be confident in some underlying numbers or have a path for him to have success. If it turns out to be a top 5 pick, you could get burned if he doesn’t become a star.

I’m all likelihood, he signs for $2.1 million with the Rangers.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

Flawed context and you are ignoring the injury factor. If you believe in this young core, you will believe my statement that we finish with a pick in the 8-16 range. Otherwise, you should probably be hoping for the Habs to do a Hawks rebuild and trade Dach and Debrincat away and keep tanking until you get the next Bedard.

If not for the injuries last year, we don't pick 5. We are in the 8-12 mix.

First of all you make zero sense nobody is talking about trading Dach or anyone or even tanking im telling you that the Habs trading their 2024 1st is a horrible idea because YES we are a lottery team name me one team we're better then in the Atlantic name me just one ?? and for Lafreniere really if we're gonna trade our 1st atleast aim higher

 

[Habs Halifax]

why the hell would we do this can we stop man


Yes so maybe we should wish for injuries again next year because we need some talent from the draft , we don't need to accelerate the rebuild we are shooting ourselves in the foot if we do that

Go look at the age range gap between Hedman/Stamkos to Sergachev/Point and also Mackinnon/Rantanen to Makar.

When Suzuki is 30, Reinbacher is 24. Do you think extending the rebuild to 7, 8, 9+ years in gap between Suzuki and the 24/25 drafts is a good plan? I'm pretty sure we run into cap issues when Suzuki/Caufield need new contracts.

I'm not saying we should be going all in and trading futures. I'm saying we need to pay attention to what Hughes is doing by adding pieces in between Suzuki and Reinbacher.

First of all you make zero sense nobody is talking about trading Dach or anyone or even tanking im telling you that the Habs trading their 2024 1st is a horrible idea because YES we are a lottery team name me one team we're better then in the Atlantic name me just one ?? and for Lafreniere really if we're gonna trade our 1st atleast aim higher

My context makes sense but you just don't agree with it. Are you going to throw insults now in a disagreement? Classic HF trap. You probably think I am drooling over this idea now because I'm active talking about it. It's a conversation bud, that's all.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

I make sense but you just don't agree with it. Are you going to throw insults now in a disagreement? Classic HF trap

No you dont thats why everyone is telling you its a bad trade

 

[Habs Halifax]

No you dont thats why everyone is telling you its a bad trade

There it is. The "everyone" bandwagon argument. I don't follow bandwagons. And it's a conversation I'm 50/50 on.

My context does make sense. You just don't like the idea and now your searching for attack reasons. Classic HF. You are better than that.

 

[BB88]

Already answered that question. We finished 5th last but with a lot of injuries. Our guys on D were mostly rookies. If not for the injuries, I think we finish in the bottom 8-12 range. That's not a reach. That's 6-10 wins in the difference over 7 months. It's closer than you realize. 1 win / month ish.

I'm not expecting playoffs but I do expect a pick in the 8-16 range. I don't agree with you that we stay in the bottom 5 that long. I also don't think you understand what happened to us last year.



I don't play that game. I used too though. There are a lot of variables to this and it's unpredictable to list teams in order like that. All I will say is we finished 5th last with a lot of injuries to key assets. If the injures happen again, it might be a bottom 5 finish again yes but expecting that amount of injuries again is not probable.

Bookmark it. Habs pick will be from 8-16 range.

So you just live in the past and ignore the upgrades other teams have made?

Your answer isn’t an answer on how you are better than Buffalo for example.

Montreal has the worst defense+ goaltending in the Atlantic, on top of having a bottom tier 1C.
That sounds like a recipe for success?