Kyle Dubas becomes quickest Leafs GM to 100 Wins

[Spirit of 67]

since joining the leafs as GM (not AGM), he traded/let go the following players:

JVR
Bozak
Komarov
Martin
Johnsson
Kapanen
Kadri
Ceci*
Barrie*
Leivo
Gardiner
Brown
Zaitsev
Ennis
Hainsey
Marleau
Sparks

*those are players that arrived through the removal of other players so they technically do count somewhat

instead of putting players that he himself acquired, I felt it would be easier to just highlight the ones that were here before him and that he inherited:

William Nylander
Morgan Rielly
Pierre Engvall
Frederik Andersen

That's it. Nylander, Engvall were also under Dubas and Keefe on the Marlies throughout their entire career.

So in reality the 2 players he really hasn't had much hand in was Rielly and Andersen.

Table already set? nah. He changed the table so fast that people didn't even realize it.

To put this into perspective... this was our lineup just before Dubas became GM

Hyman^-Matthews^-Nylander
JVR-Bozak-Marner^
Marleau-Kadri-Komarov
Brown-Moore-Martin
Gauthier/Leivo

Rielly-Hainsey
Gardiner-Polak
Carrick-Zaitsev
Dermott^

Andersen
McElhinney (who apparently had one really good year left in him)

The ones with a ^ are ones that are still on the franchise and ones he had an input or in some cases big control in their acquisition (ie 2015 draft/the before lou lam period... technically everyone was going to select Matthews so I consider that everyone had a hand in that one). Everyone else is gone beside andersen and rielly. defense doesn't look the same at all.

Why are you bringing logic into this?

 

[Spirit of 67]

Matthews, Marner and Nylander were already there on entry level deals. "Table wasn't bare".

 

[zeke]

Its not the roster but rather the results I'm referring to, and here is the math to confirm this and the results don't lie !!!.

2017-18 inherited team: 49 wins & 105 points in 82 games and Lost in round #1

Has Dubas since taking over as the GM exceeded any one of those 3 X marks as in Wins/season, Points/season or advancement in the playoffs? The answer is NO!!

In fact stats show the team has produced wins at a lower rate since the GM change.

Inherited Team = .598 wins per game rate (49W/82 games). [at 49 wins/season in 2 full seasons you would have 98 wins if the new GM simply kept the same inherited pace with no improvement over 164 games]. At that rate it should have taken just 167 games to reach 100 wins to break-even on inherited pace.

Despite adding a #1 franchise C in JT it took Dubas 176 games to reach 100 wins = .568 wins/game rate (100W/176 games).

The actual results show post GM change the team is producing wins at a lower rate/game than the inherited team of 2017-18 to achieve this new fastest Leafs GM to 100 wins mark.

PS. The fact that the team lost in Qualifying round and didn't even make it to the final 16 and round #1 last year also reflects decline in success and not advancement beyond the inherited team, which was the main reason for the GM change to alter playoff fortunes.

Mess math is the best math.

Since Matthews:

Lou: #11pts%, #12row%, #9gdiff, #11xgdiff, #3pdo - Plyf (of 23): #14w, #14w%, #15gdiff, #13xgdiff, #13pdo
Kyle: #5pts%, #3row%, #3gdiff, #3xgdiff, #3pdo --- Plyf (of 25): #14w, #15w%, #18gdiff, #17xgdiff, #18pdo

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Its not the roster but rather the results I'm referring to, and here is the math to confirm this and the results don't lie !!!.

2017-18 inherited team: 49 wins & 105 points in 82 games and Lost in round #1

Has Dubas since taking over as the GM exceeded any one of those 3 X marks as in Wins/season, Points/season or advancement in the playoffs? The answer is NO!!

In fact stats show the team has produced wins at a lower rate since the GM change.

Inherited Team = .598 wins per game rate (49W/82 games). [at 49 wins/season in 2 full seasons you would have 98 wins if the new GM simply kept the same inherited pace with no improvement over 164 games]. At that rate it should have taken just 167 games to reach 100 wins to break-even on inherited pace.

Despite adding a #1 franchise C in JT it took Dubas 176 games to reach 100 wins = .568 wins/game rate (100W/176 games).

The actual results show post GM change the team is producing wins at a lower rate/game than the inherited team of 2017-18 to achieve this new fastest Leafs GM to 100 wins mark.

PS. The fact that the team lost in Qualifying round and didn't even make it to the final 16 and round #1 last year also reflects decline in success and not advancement beyond the inherited team, which was the main reason for the GM change to alter playoff fortunes, in the first place.

How much of that success was his (the entire point)?

The qualifying round was linked to many things (goaltending, loss of best defensive D, etc.).

GM change was planned the day Lou signed. He said so himself.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

That is blatantly false. You're being extremely misleading.

Lou (total): 39.3 win pace
Lou (core pieces): 44.5 win pace
Dubas (total): 46.3 win pace

And Lou's win record is massively inflated by shootouts, which have nothing to do with him, or the quality of the team.

Lou (total): 34.7 ROW pace
Lou (core pieces): 40.5 ROW pace
Dubas (total): 45.9 ROW pace

And this despite the fact that Lou had his core pieces at an ELC price, giving him tens of millions of additional space, that he wasted. And despite the fact that Lou emptied our prospect pool and didn't refill it. And despite the fact that we've had considerably more injuries under Dubas. And despite the fact that many of those wins for Lou came through a one-off Vezina-quality performance from our journeyman backup waiver claim after Lou's chosen backup bombed. And despite the fact that Dubas didn't have his coach for the first half of his time as GM...

Dubas (Keefe): 51.3 win pace
Dubas (Keefe): 51.3 ROW pace

Not to mention Dubas' involvement with the team before Lou got there, and his development of Marlies that shifted onto the big team for Lou.

I mean, we could keep going, but Dubas is better than Lou in pretty much every way possible, and that should be beyond obvious to anybody that's been paying attention.

Almost makes you wonder who should have mentored who?

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Rielly - Hainsey
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Dermott - Polak


“table set”

I hear you and raise you
Matthews Marner Nylander Andersen Reilly

Not to say Dubas hasn’t done a good job because he absolutely has...but the foundation was already in place before he became sole GM

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

I hear you and raise you
Matthews Marner Nylander Andersen Reilly

Not to say Dubas hasn’t done a good job because he absolutely has...but the foundation was already in place before he became sole GM

Marner was when he was AGM.

 

[zeke]

I hear you and raise you
Matthews Marner Nylander Andersen Reilly

Not to say Dubas hasn’t done a good job because he absolutely has...but the foundation was already in place before he became sole GM

people should really stop including a mediocre goalie like Andersen in there as some sort of impressive core piece.

 

[therealkoho]

Kyle Dubas is the Leafs GM who took over the team at the best time ever!

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Marner was when he was AGM.

You’ll notice I said sole GM in my post...as an AGM he didn’t have final call he had to have someone ok his moves as such not technically his

And again I like Dubas I think he’s done a great job getting us out from under some of these contracts and his drafting has been top notch simply put but I’m not going to say moves were “his” as an AGM that’s why he was an Assistant and not the top guy...

 

[JayfromNB1219]

people should really stop including a mediocre goalie like Andersen in there as some sort of impressive core piece.

It’s ok Zeke we disagree on Andersen...I think his best is yet to come mind you I don’t consider him “core” but certainly well above mcelhainey (I know I butchered his last name) and Hutch
I think Campbell might supplant him but the jury is still out on that one

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Marner was when he was AGM.

An AGM has to get his moves signed off on by the head guy thus though he may have had the idea it wouldn’t have happened without someone above him saying “ok do it”

 

[ShaneFalco]

A: "Look at this accomplishment from Dubas"
B: "Eh, not that impressive, Lou left him in a good place"
A:"Actually, Lou inherited most of the same core pieces that Kyle did, and actually left him in a worse spot otherwise"
B:"WHY WON'T YOU LET KYLE'S RESULTS SPEAK FOR THEMSELF AND LEAVE LOU OUT OF IT"

 

[ToneDog]

people should really stop including a mediocre goalie like Andersen in there as some sort of impressive core piece.

Andersen was a nice pickup who was trending down but has looked better lately behind our upgraded D. Tavares has looked terrible at times this year. Should we blame Dubas for signing him to an $11m cap hit ??

 

[Cor]

people should really stop including a mediocre goalie like Andersen in there as some sort of impressive core piece.

Also disingenuous to include Morgan Rielly, who was the best player on that defence that was “set on the table” for Dubas was set on the table for the past decade almost. Dubas was also the acting co-GM for Marner.

So Nylander and Matthews?

The same people who are saying Nylander was set on the table for Dubas are the ones who want him traded

And just because Matthews is on the table, doesn’t guarantee shit. Just look at Edmonton. Just look at Buffalo.



The gymnastics some people do to try and discredit Dubas blows my mind. Dubas has built a heck of a team. Any fan of this team should love that.

Some people put their personal agendas ahead of the team

 

[BertCorbeau]

I.. I don't get why some are trying to tarnish Dubas for this accomplishment.

Even the eye test this season so far is evident enough that the Leafs are playing the most complete games over stretches of the season than we've ever seen with this core. Especially defensively, and Dubas has rebuilt this defense entirely. Something no GM has been able to do in the last 20 years.

This is largely because Dubas' was able to bring in the coach who shared his vision, the players that fit that style of play, and enhancements to the roster from previous failed seasons that were learnt lessons.

 

[zeke]

Inherited team ---> Team Dubas

* = ELC contract

Matthews* ---> Matthews
Marner* ------> Marner
Nylander* ----> Nylander

Kadri ---------> Tavares
Hyman -------> Hyman
VanRiemsdyk -> Thornton

Bozak ---------> Kerfoot
Marleau ------> Mikheyev
Brown --------> Engvall

Plekanec ------> Spezza
Komarov -----> Simmonds
D.Moore --------> Boyd

Kapanen* ------> Robertson*
Johnsson* -----> Anderson
Leivo -----------> Vesey
Gauthier ------> Barabanov


Rielly -----------> Rielly
Hainsey --------> Brodie

Gardiner -------> Muzzin
Zaitsev ---------> Holl

Dermott* ------> Dermott
Polak ----------> Bogosian

Carrick --------> Lehtonen
Borgman ------> Sandin
Liljegren ------> Liljegren


Andersen ------> Andersen
McElhinney ---> Campbell
Sparks --------> Hutchinson




The only remnants left of the Lou Era in the entire organization:

1. Matthews - no-brainer 1st overall pick
2. Liljegren - solid 17th overall pick
3. Andersen - decent starting goalie who may or may not be starting come playoffs this year
4. A.Brooks & J.Woll - fringe prospects not likely to make an impact in the NHL


So thanks for Liljegren, Lou.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

An AGM has to get his moves signed off on by the head guy thus though he may have had the idea it wouldn’t have happened without someone above him saying “ok do it”

Which is fine but you also can't categorize him as "inherited".

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Andersen was a nice pickup who was trending down but has looked better lately behind our upgraded D. Tavares has looked terrible at times this year. Should we blame Dubas for signing him to an $11m cap hit ??

He's the only one you could argue as underperforming his contract but you always pay more for UFA and depth down the middle seems paramount. I for one am very glad to have him. Do we prefer Kadri as 2C? An "underperforming" Tavares hovers around point per game. Since signing he's 24th in Pts/GP and 11th for goals.

 

[Clark4Ever]

That is quite the benchmark set by Dubas for an original six franchise.

 

[ToneDog]

He's the only one you could argue as underperforming his contract but you always pay more for UFA and depth down the middle seems paramount. I for one am very glad to have him. Do we prefer Kadri as 2C? An "underperforming" Tavares hovers around point per game. Since signing he's 24th in Pts/GP and 11th for goals.

I got no problem with JT and was all for the signing but if he trends down again next year, is it Dubas' fault ?? I would say no the same way I do not blame Lou if Andy keeps trending down.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Inherited team ---> Team Dubas

* = ELC contract

Matthews* ---> Matthews
Marner* ------> Marner
Nylander* ----> Nylander

Kadri ---------> Tavares
Hyman -------> Hyman
VanRiemsdyk -> Thornton

Bozak ---------> Kerfoot
Marleau ------> Mikheyev
Brown --------> Engvall

Plekanec ------> Spezza
Komarov -----> Simmonds
D.Moore --------> Boyd

Kapanen* ------> Robertson*
Johnsson* -----> Anderson
Leivo -----------> Vesey
Gauthier ------> Barabanov


Rielly -----------> Rielly
Hainsey --------> Brodie

Gardiner -------> Muzzin
Zaitsev ---------> Holl

Dermott* ------> Dermott
Polak ----------> Bogosian

Carrick --------> Lehtonen
Borgman ------> Sandin
Liljegren ------> Liljegren


Andersen ------> Andersen
McElhinney ---> Campbell
Sparks --------> Hutchinson




The only remnants left of the Lou Era in the entire organization:

1. Matthews - no-brainer 1st overall pick
2. Liljegren - solid 17th overall pick
3. Andersen - decent starting goalie who may or may not be starting come playoffs this year
4. A.Brooks & J.Woll - fringe prospects not likely to make an impact in the NHL


So thanks for Liljegren, Lou.

So hardly any turn-over then

 

[Mess]

That is quite the benchmark set by Dubas for an original six franchise.

If Dubas had taken over as GM when the prior GM did with a team finishing last overall such records as this would be unachievable and unattainable.

Back in 2015-16 the team was winning 29 games a season and not 49 games a season as generally GMs take over from fired GMs on struggling teams like the previous GM did.

When your team is drafting 5th (Rielly), 7th (Kadri), 8th (Nylander), 4th (Marner) or 1st (Matthews) there is no opportunity for your GM to establish this type of record, but it sure is stocking the cupborad and building the base upon which to build off of.

You need to be handed over the keys with all that suffering and struggling and high draft picks in tow, and the table set and then build up a successful team for Dubas to have achieved this new record.

Dubas was the interim GM when they were dumping Kessel and gutting the team, where WINS was not the #1 priority, and had Dubas day #1 began back then this record wouldn't have been possible.

Right place and right time inheriting a team that just recorded 49 wins and was #6th overall in the NHL standings with all that talented core accumulated over all those down years.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

I love Dubas and have absolutely loved 90% of the work he's done as a GM here, but come on. He had a pretty good starting hand with guys like Matthews, Marner, and Nylander. Now we've seen GM's destroy their teams even with a good hand so Dubas deserves a ton of credit, but we can praise Dubas for doing an outstanding job while also realizing he had a good foundation in place.

 

[IPS]

First time reading this thread.

I just knew for an absolute fact that there'd be a certain someone in here completely contorting the statistical picture to make it into a Lou > Dubas thread. Imagine being so emotionally attached to a GM who left the team almost 3 years ago because you don't like the guy who replaced him.