Kyle Dubas becomes quickest Leafs GM to 100 Wins

[ShaneFalco]

According to a lot people around here, our stars were soft, greedy jerks who refused to work hard and do what it takes to win, our defense was terrible, we were in "cap hell", our team philosophy was all wrong, and we had no depth.

Gonna be some confused narratives. Either Dubas fixed all that and is awesome, or that stuff wasn't true in the first place.

Replying to one of them

 

[sxvnert]

17/18 Season

 

[PromisedLand]

That the second fastest GM to reach that plateau took 190 games... Yeah, Toronto's GM history isn't full of legends, to put it mildly.

the ballard era and the pension plan era was all about making money less about winning

 

[DopeyFish]

Usually when a GM takes over a rebuild follows and isn't handed the keys to a winning team. That said hes done an excellent job building towards the current team.

except that isn't the case at all.

outside of Matthews and Nylander (former was a consensus pick and latter a Shanahan force on Nonis)

Dubas was there for Marner pick. I believe Hunter and Dubas were both for Marner, Babcock for Hanifin. I can't really see Dubas pining over Hanifin or Strome when Marner was there.

Dubas is the one who targeted and traded for Hyman. Dubas was the one who traded down for the pick that ultimately was Dermott... so it's possible he did that pick (we don't really know)

So of the players currently on the team this is what is true

Rielly (Burke)
Andersen (Lamoriello)
Nylander (Nonis/Shanahan)
Marner (Hunter/Dubas)
Matthews (Consensus)
Dermott (Possibly Dubas? no idea)
Engvall (Nonis/Shanahan)

Rest of the team is 100% Dubas.

So because of this... the only players that Dubas hasn't had a hand in/say on is Engvall, Nylander, Rielly and Andersen.

In reality it isn't a team that he inherited. It's his team from pretty much top to bottom.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Dubas had a mess to clean up contract-wise when he came in.
Table set

 

[PromisedLand]

Agreed, very few teams change their GMs coming off a record setting 105 point & 100 year franchise best mark for wins and points in a season.

The Leafs were coming off of 40 & 49 win seasons or [89 win total] in 164 games (2 seasons prior) and now Dubas has recorded +11 win improvement in his first 176 games [in +14 extra games]

If however you compare past and present GMs to the same 164 game mark matching games played and apples to apples.

Lou Lam 89 wins in his last 164 games (2016-17 & 2017-18)
&
Dubas in his first/next 164 games 2018-19 (82 games & 46 wins) + 2019-20 (70 games & 36 wins) + (1st 12 X games of 2020-21 & 9 wins) = 91 wins in 164 games.

The Leafs saw a marginal +2 win improvement in the 164 games prior to the GM change, compared to the post GM change.

This is what you would expect at minimum where the table is already been set and handing over a 100+ point team.

PS. 1 X GM inherited a last over place overall team with 29 wins, and the other inherited a franchise best mark team with 49 wins as their starting points.

2 things to do

1) remove the 2016-2017 season; nobody expected leafs to do anything of significance that year IMO

2) remove the losses dubas had to deal with when the team quit on babcock

dubas has been pretty decent IMO except the contracts handed to JT, Matthews and Marner.

I love JT, Auston and Mitch but those contracts were heavily overpaid IMO and if we could have saved 4 million combined on those contracts we could have put it to good use. The freakin cap now not going up for a few years is also going to bite us but other teams are in the same boat too so we will see how that pans out.

I wonder with the US tv deal up for renewal; how the HRR will impact the cap moving forward or are the owners gonna cry for larger share of the profit?

 

[DopeyFish]

Dubas had a mess to clean up contract-wise when he came in.
Table set

Matt Martin, Leo Komarov, Patrick Marleau, Nikita Zaitsev, Connor Brown were totally critical for our success!!1

 

[Suntouchable13]

According to a lot people around here, our stars were soft, greedy jerks who refused to work hard and do what it takes to win, our defense was terrible, we were in "cap hell", our team philosophy was all wrong, and we had no depth.

Gonna be some confused narratives. Either Dubas fixed all that and is awesome, or that stuff wasn't true in the first place.

It's not that it's "fixed" or "that stuff wasn't true in the first place" I think that things are still a work in progress. Leafs are doing extremely well right now, no doubt, it's exciting. The jury is still out. It's not like everything was magically fixed overnight or that stuff wasn't true in the first place. We can't determine that until we see the playoffs results. It is trending in the right direction, however.

 

[Dave92]

Rielly - Hainsey
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Dermott - Polak

“table set”

He took over a team that had just set a franchise record in points. Name another gm that has done that ever.

He is looking really good right now though.

 

[ToneDog]

Didn't take long for this to become another Lou vs Kyle debate. LOL. Was not a fan of the contracts to the big 3 but Kyle is starting to turn my opinion around. Should be neck and neck with the Canes GM for GM of the year unless our boys have peaked and fall of a cliff in April.

 

[Mess]

2 things to do

1) remove the 2016-2017 season; nobody expected leafs to do anything of significance that year IMO

2) remove the losses dubas had to deal with when the team quit on babcock

dubas has been pretty decent IMO except the contracts handed to JT, Matthews and Marner.

I love JT, Auston and Mitch but those contracts were heavily overpaid IMO and if we could have saved 4 million combined on those contracts we could have put it to good use. The freakin cap now not going up for a few years is also going to bite us but other teams are in the same boat too so we will see how that pans out.

The last GM could have turned out the lights, locked the doors and set the team on autopilot and gotten similar results in 2 years prior and 2 years post.

The true test IMO comes in playoff improvement and advancement going forward.

Prior 2 playoff seasons to GM change 2016-17 - Lost in round #1 [6 games 2-4 record] & 2017-18 - Lost in round #1 [7 games 3W-4L = 5 wins 8 losses.
&
Post 2 playoff seasons to GM change 2018-19 - Lost in round #1 [3W-4L] & 2019-20 Lost in Qualifying round [5 games 2W-3L] = 5 wins and 7 losses.

So if you look at regulation wins and losses or playoff wins and loss the results are virtually identical pre and post GM change over the course of the last 4 seasons, when adjusted for equal games played.

So statistically speaking as of now the GM change results last 4 X completed regular seasons and 4 X playoffs have be negligible at best and almost mirror themselves in fact.

PS. The reason for the GM change wasn't the 100+ point regular season but rather to attempt to improve on the losing in round #1 outcome.

 

[Papi 4 Hart]

During my lifetime of fandom I have rarely appreciated the moves on a consistent basis and trusted a GM as much as I have with Dubas.

Reduces a lot of the stress of being a leafs fan.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Rarely do GMs join a team where the table has already been set.

Peter Chiarelli

He fkd up.

 

[PromisedLand]

The last GM could have turned out the lights, locked the doors and set the team on autopilot and gotten similar results in 2 years prior and 2 years post.

The true test IMO comes in playoff improvement and advancement going forward.

Prior 2 playoff seasons to GM change 2016-17 - Lost in round #1 [6 games 2-4 record] & 2017-18 - Lost in round #1 [7 games 3W-4L = 5 wins 8 losses.
&
Post 2 playoff seasons to GM change 2018-19 - Lost in round #1 [3W-4L] & 2019-20 Lost in Qualifying round [5 games 2W-3L] = 5 wins and 7 losses.

So if you look at regulation wins and losses or playoff wins and loss the results are virtually identical pre and post GM change over the course of the last 4 seasons.

So statistically speaking as of now the GM change results last 4 X completed regular seasons and 4 X playoffs have be negligible at best.

Sure but it is hard to factor how players have improved and are contributing like Matthews, Mitch, Nylander, Hyman. These 4 have seen massive improvements compared to the Lou years. Some of it is personal growth as a player, some of it might be coaching so it is tougher to distinguish between two. but Dubas did inherit a team that had the franchise record in teh regular season so compared to other GMs who take over; Dubas relatively speaking had it easy IMO

but... to be seen what becomes of this team in the playoffs for sure

 

[ToneDog]

Sure does not hurt taking over a team with a franchise C and RWer and a former #1 pick C wanting to come home. Kind of like coach Bylsma taking over the Pens and Sid and Malkin winning him a Cup. But we digress, Kyle seems to have righted the ship since the loss to CBJ. Just don't blow it.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Sure does not hurt taking over a team with a franchise C and RWer and a former #1 pick C wanting to come home. Kind of like coach Bylsma taking over the Pens and Sid and Malkin winning him a Cup. But we digress, Kyle seems to have righted the ship since the loss to CBJ. Just don't blow it.

Lou was in a similar position in 2016 and failed to bring him Stamkos. I resent the notion that Tavares signing here was a foregone conclusion, especially when the popular opinion at the time was he’d re-sign with NYI.

 

[ToneDog]

Lou was in a similar position in 2016 and failed to bring him Stamkos. I resent the notion that Tavares signing here was a foregone conclusion, especially when the popular opinion at the time was he’d re-sign with NYI.

Nothing to resent. You can have your opinion and I have mine. Only JT can tell you what he was thinking.

The way I see it Stammer used the Leafs as leverage against Yzerman. At the end of the day he went back to TB for the same offer he had not previously accepted, turnng down more money from the Leafs (sure Lou may have blown it with his presentation) while JT came home while turning down more money from the Isles (11x8) and Sharks (13x7). Sure Kyle gets credit his presentation but IMO JT was coming home all along. Make no mistake, family ties had a lot to do with it as well. His wife is also from Oshawa and my understanding would not be able to work in the US and had found employment in hospital in Mississauga. Same family ties is true for Jason Spezza. Would have thought the same was true for Petro but I guess the Leafs could not make his cap hit work.

 

[ACC1224]

Ehhh surprising number of new GM's come into the fold on competitive teams to put them over the top.

BriseBois last year with Tampa Bay
Brian MacLellan in Washington
Jim Rutherford in Pittsburgh
Stan Bowman in Chicago
Burke in Anaheim

And that's just in the last 15 years

Interesting and surprising, thanks. I wonder how long it took for any of those to reach 100?

 

[Critical13]

The year Dubas took over, some of our top prospects included Johnsson, Borgman, Rosen, Bracco and Brooks (all ranked in our top 10...).

Table set, lads.

 

[ACC1224]

According to a lot people around here, our stars were soft, greedy jerks who refused to work hard and do what it takes to win, our defense was terrible, we were in "cap hell", our team philosophy was all wrong, and we had no depth.

Gonna be some confused narratives. Either Dubas fixed all that and is awesome, or that stuff wasn't true in the first place.

Not sure, I don’t keep track of who holds what opinion. I think Dubas has done a good job so far but it did help that he had some pretty good pieces already in place.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Rarely do GMs join a team where the table has already been set.

Lmao. GMs walk into good teams/pieces all the time, and the table was not "set" at all.

 

[Menzinger]

Rarely do GMs join a team where the table has already been set.

True. Though its not as if he joined thr team when he became GM either. I believe he was Shanahan first front office hire in 2014 (though memory isn't 100% sure on that)

 

[ACC1224]

True. Though its not as if he joined thr team when he became GM either. I believe he was Shanahan first front office hire in 2014 (though memory isn't 100% sure on tbj

No doubt he helped build what he inherited.

 

[Doublerum1975]

The only thing i didn't like was bringing in Thornton boy was i wrong he has done wonders for this team

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

Not sure, I don’t keep track of who holds what opinion. I think Dubas has done a good job so far but it did help that he had some pretty good pieces already in place.

Go ask Peter Chiarelli how easy it is to build a good team around a few good pieces.