I don't think anyone is arguing that Guindon had a good season last year but more that he was not an outlier amongst Attack forwards last season. I would highly recommend you not watch games from last year's Attack squad but if you did you'd see they really had horrible structure and systems that really hurt the offense. They really struggled on breakouts and spent an awful lot of time in their own end. They had no pace on transition as a result and really didn't generate anything on the rush, which is something that Guindon is good at. The forwards were way too stagnant on zone exit which allowed the opposition defense to be in position to nullify anything Owen Sound could generate. A lot of Owen Sound's offense came from puck possession in the offensive zone through the cycle which is not to Guindon's strengths.
Guindon is at his best playing with pace and taking advantage of odd man rushes where his puck distribution skills can shine. He can carry pucks at speed and make plays. I'm sure Kingston's staff will be able to better utilize his skill set within their offensive structure in addition to his special teams play.
Yet, he hasn’t demonstrated that. That’s my point.
You cannot just assume a player will do “X.” There is positive progression which is normal but Guindon hasn’t positively progressed since his rookie season, at least not in any significant way. Therefore, you have to consider him a bit of a wildcard.
If someone were to suggest his floor and ceiling were wider than most players then I would consider that a strong argument based on what you have detailed. But, that would mean his projection would be somewhere between 55 and 90 points, not 75-90 points.
Listen, sometimes a change does wonders for players, sometimes it doesn’t. For Kingston’s sake, let’s hope it does. But, to pretty much lock up 90 points as if it is in the bank ready to withdrawal is not realistic. Guindon needs to prove he has that in him. To date, he has not come close.
